By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators continued to raise their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 13th. This was a weekly gain of 3,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,034 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 1,601 contracts (to a weekly total of 20,110 contracts) combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) which fell by -1,870 contracts on the week (to a total of 19,673 contracts).
The US Dollar Index speculators boosted their net positions higher this week for the third consecutive week. The dollar bets have now gained by a total of +9,583 contracts over these past three weeks and climbed into a net bullish position for the first time in eighteen weeks, dating back to June 9th. The dollar index price (DXY) has also been improving over the past six weeks (to above the 93 level) after hitting an approximate 3-month low in August at just above the 91.50 exchange rate.
Individual Currencies Data this week:
In the individual major currency contracts data, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions on the week were the US dollar index (3,471 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (1,496 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,483 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,400 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,136 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-5,671 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-1,126 contracts), Swiss franc (-924 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-6,993 contracts).
Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range
The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.
Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.
Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:
|Currency||Net Speculator Position||Specs Weekly Change|
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
British Pound Sterling:
New Zealand Dollar:
Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).