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US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators trimmed their bearish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 6th. This was a weekly gain of 2,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,555 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 3,669 contracts (to a weekly total of 18,509 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser advance of 1,148 contracts on the week (to a total of 21,543 contracts).
The US Dollar Index speculators decreased their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and by a total of +6,112 contracts over this two-week period. This improvement over the past two weeks brings the overall position to the least bearish level since June 9th when the net position was in bullish territory at +4,689 contracts. The dollar speculator standing has now continued to remain in bearish territory for a total of seventeen straight weeks.
Individual Currencies Data this week: Euro bets drop sharply
In the other major currency contracts data, we saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.
Euro positions dropped sharply this week by over -13,000 contracts. The euro bets have fallen for two straight weeks and for three out of the previous four weeks as well. The euro bullish position has been historically strong in the past four-to-six months and rode a surge of bullish bets to a record high level of +211,752 contracts on August 25th. Since then, the euro speculator position has cooled off but remains extremely bullish at a net level over +174,000 contracts.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (2,521 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (1,447 contracts), Swiss franc (355 contracts), Canadian dollar (901 contracts), Australian dollar (1,910 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,761 contracts) and the Mexican peso (8,706 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-13,808 weekly change in contracts) and the Japanese yen (-3,687 contracts).
Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range
The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.
Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.
Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:
|Currency||Net Speculator Position||Specs Weekly Change|
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
British Pound Sterling:
New Zealand Dollar:
Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).