US Dollar Index Speculators trimmed their bearish bets. Japanese Yen bets fall


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US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators edged their bearish net positions lower in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 17th. This was a weekly change of 154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,128 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 937 contracts (to a weekly total of 19,540 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a gain by 783 contracts on the week (to a total of 20,514 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators slightly reduced their bearish bets this week. The dollar index position is currently at approximately a neutral position in the big scheme of things with the net position under a thousand contracts. The price of the dollar index (DXY) has been on a downtrend after hitting a multiyear high of just about 103 in March. Since then, the dollar has dropped steadily and closed this week just below the 92.40 exchange rate.


Individual Currencies Data this week: Japanese Yen bets fall

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

  • Japanese yen bets dropped sharply this week following strong gains in previous weeks. The yen speculative positions fell by over -12,000 contracts this week after rising in the previous three weeks and by a total of +27,711 contracts over that time-frame. The gains in the yen positions had brought the November 10th level to the highest standing in the past two hundred and eleven weeks before this week’s turnaround. The yen position has now remained in bullish territory for thirty-seven weeks after turning positive in March.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (154 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (990 contracts), Australian dollar (2,597 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,151 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,087 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-1,327 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-2,051 contracts), Japanese yen (-12,227 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-940 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

CurrencyNet Speculator PositionSpecs Weekly Change
USD Index-974154
EuroFx133,960-1,327
GBP-19,746-2,051
JPY29,667-12,227
CHF14,924-940
CAD-20,359990
AUD-6,1232,597
NZD8,8681,151
MXN20,4092,087

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 133,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 135,287 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -19,746 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly reduction of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,695 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of 29,667 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decrease of -12,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,894 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,924 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,864 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -20,359 contracts this week. This was a increase of 990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,349 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures equaled a net position of -6,123 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,720 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of 8,868 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 1,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,717 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 20,409 contracts this week. This was a weekly boost of 2,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,322 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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