Speculators edge US Dollar Index bets higher. Euro, AUD, CAD & JPY bets gain


By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators slightly lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 12,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 7th. This was a weekly gain of 414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,054 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dipping by -1,120 contracts (to a weekly total of 23,825 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a larger decline by -1,534 contracts on the week (to a total of 11,357 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculative positions edged a bit higher following declines in twelve out of the previous thirteen weeks that had shaved off a total of -30,974 contracts from the bullish position. The net position remains in a relatively small bullish standing (+12,468 contracts) compared to recent history where the USD Index bullish level had stayed above the +20,000 contract level for seventy-three straight weeks through December 10th. Overall, the USD Index level has now remained in bullish territory now for eighty-seven consecutive weeks, dating back to May 15th of 2018.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw four substantial weekly changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Euro speculator positions jumped this week by over +12,000 contracts after positions had fallen in the previous two weeks. Despite this week’s improvement, the overall euro bets remain in a strong bearish level at -61,664 contracts. Euro contracts have now been in bearish territory for sixty-seven consecutive weeks while positions have stayed above the -50,000 net contract level for the past seventeen weeks.

Japanese yen bets improved this week by over +13,000 contracts and have now risen for five consecutive weeks. These recent gains have brought the overall JPY bearish position to a total of -12,248 contracts and down from a total of -47,823 contracts on December 3rd. Yen positions have now been in bearish territory for thirteen straight weeks after falling from bullish to bearish on October 15th.

Canadian dollar positions got a boost this week by over +14,000 contracts and have risen for two straight weeks. The recent gains have pushed the overall net position (+26,367 contracts) back over the +20,000 contract level for the first time in four weeks and to the highest level in seven weeks. Overall, CAD bets have been in a bullish standing now for twenty-eight straight weeks, dating back to July.

Australian dollar speculator bets rose sharply this week by over +11,000 contracts and have now risen for three straight weeks. The improvements in the Aussie positions have brought the overall net position (-27,249 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past nine weeks. Overall, the AUD speculator positions have now been in bearish territory for ninety-three consecutive weeks, dating back to April 3rd of 2018.

This week marked a rare occasion where all of the major currencies saw increasing speculator positions.

The gains were for the US dollar index (414 weekly change in contracts), euro (12,681 contracts), British pound sterling (4,117 contracts), Japanese yen (13,054 contracts), Swiss franc (1,256 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,454 contracts), Australian dollar (11,090 contracts), New Zealand dollar (3,570 contracts) and the Mexican peso (7,052 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index 12,468 414
EuroFx -61,664 12,681
GBP 16,510 4,117
JPY -12,248 13,054
CHF -4,469 1,256
CAD 26,367 14,454
AUD -27,249 11,090
NZD -1,488 3,570
MXN 157,318 7,052

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -61,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,345 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level equaled a net position of 16,510 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly gain of 4,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,393 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators recorded a net position of -12,248 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lift of 13,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,302 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,469 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,725 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of 26,367 contracts this week. This was a lift of 14,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,913 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures equaled a net position of -27,249 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,339 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing was a net position of -1,488 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 3,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,058 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 157,318 contracts this week. This was a weekly lift of 7,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 150,266 net contracts.


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Posted on