Open Interest Analysis: Stocks

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The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday June 11th.

Here are the weekly charts of each major futures stock market with commentary on open interest and large trader trends.


VIX:

VIX open interest dipped once again this week and remains in a low level compared to the three-year range. The large trader positions have pulled their bets out of extreme positions and further retreating from their all-time record high levels. Specs are betting on continued lower levels in the VIX while Commercials are betting the other way.


S&P 500 Mini:

SP500-Mini open interest continues to remain low but has popped its head a bit higher recently. The low OI has not stopped the market from continually climbing to new record high levels though prices have cooled off a bit in the few weeks.

Large speculators had mostly been absent from the recent rally on a net level compared to their strong bullish positions in previous rallies but have started to see a bring some bets into bullish territory lately. Commercials, meanwhile, are back in a small overall bearish net position.


Dow Jones Mini:

DowJones-Mini open interest continues to remain in a very low level as well. This market though, unlike the SP500-Mini, had seen the large speculators remain as net buyers throughout the rally while the commercials have been sellers. Large trader positions have really started sliding in recent weeks and are at just about a neutral level.

Open interest helped fuel the rally in this market up until later in 2017 when OI levels fell off. The rally restarted and resumed to new highs but has not been accompanied by open interest gains. This is a characteristic of a weak uptrend and worth watching if these levels can be sustained.


Nasdaq Mini:

Nasdaq-Mini open interest continues at its low levels very much like the Dow and SP500 markets. The large trader positions flipped in the past few weeks with the Specs as small bulls and the commercials as small bears. These positions are just about at neutral levels.

This market has the characteristic of a weak uptrend with prices rising but open interest low.


Nikkei 225 (USD):

Nikkei225 continues to share the very weak open interest characteristic as the other stock markets. Large trader positions, however, continue in extreme standings with Specs being bearish and Commercials strongly bullish. The present situation is at odds with the general idea that Specs are the trend followers of price as that is clearly the opposite case in recent months. Recent trader behavior compared to price is also at odds with this market’s personality in previous years.

This market has the characteristic of a weak uptrend with prices rising but open interest low.


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (speculators & large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips Research

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