10-Year Treasury Note Speculators drop bullish bets for 2nd week

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10-Year Note Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020


10-Year Note Large Trader Net Positions:


10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets once again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 25,748 contracts in the data reported through December 1st. This was a weekly drop of -89,227 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,975 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -59,080 contracts (to a weekly total of 544,817 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) gained by 30,147 contracts for the week (to a total of 519,069 contracts).

Speculative positions fell sharply this week for a second straight week and dropped the overall bullish standing to the lowest level of the past month. The bullish position has fallen by a total of -126,571 contracts in just the past two weeks and brought the current standing to a small bullish position of just +25,748 contracts. The speculative position has mostly remained in a small bullish level since ending a long streak of bearish positions in early June.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 86.1 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).


TRADER TYPE DATA:SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.2
– Net Position:25,748
– Gross Longs:544,817
– Gross Shorts:519,069
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of 20,265 contracts. This was a weekly change of 97,594 contracts from the total net of -77,329 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish-Extreme level with a score of 19.7 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.


TRADER TYPE DATA:COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.3
– Net Position:20,265
– Gross Longs:2,205,787
– Gross Shorts:2,185,522
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.1


Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -46,013 contracts. This was a weekly change of -8,367 contracts from the total net of -37,646 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 63.7 percent.


Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.


TRADER TYPE DATA:SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.6
– Net Position:-46,013
– Gross Longs:357,899
– Gross Shorts:403,912
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.0


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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