10-Year Note Speculators added to their bearish bets for 2nd week


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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -251,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday March 17th. This was a weekly change of -36,530 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,583 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -134,093 contracts (to a weekly total of 527,245 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -97,563 contracts for the week (to a total of 778,358 contracts).


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Ten-year bond speculators added to their bearish bets for the second consecutive week and by a total of -94,429 contracts over that time-frame. The ten-year bond has mostly provided a strong safe haven in the current market turmoil (COVID-19 outbreak) as the yield on the ten-year bond recently hit record lows under 0.40 percent on March 9th (As bond prices rise, yields fall). Previously, speculators had sharply cut their bearish positions by a total of +242,235 contracts over the prior three weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 166,737 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -7,491 contracts from the total net of 174,228 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $135.51 which was a loss of $-1.69 from the previous close of $137.20, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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