Forex Outlook: US Dollar gained last week vs Major Currencies

By CountingPips.com

The US dollar advanced versus all the major currencies last week and rose higher against most of them for a second straight week as market traders continued to position themselves for the potential unwinding of the US Federal reserves quantitative easing program. This week has some very big fundamental events to watch for with the highlight being the US NonFarm Payrolls Employment data on Friday.

There are also interest rate decisions out of Australia, the United Kingdom and the Eurozone to look out for as well as some manufacturing data out of the US and China and other 2nd tier releases. See more currency pair comments and economic event highlights below.




Major Currency Pair Commentary & Levels:


EUR/USD: The euro declined against the US dollar for a second straight week last week and closed out the week just above the 1.3000 level. Look for the 1.3000 level to be the most important level for the week as the bulls and bears will fight it out here to wrestle control of this currency pairs direction. Upward momentum will likely see resistance into the 1.3050 level in the short-term with the 1.3100 level likely to provide more resistance. Decline under the 1.30 level could see the pair on its way to the 1.2850 price level in the near future. Look for support in the 1.2950 area and then the 1.2900 area for this pair, before and if, this pair declines further.

eurusd-w6-28




GBP/USD: The British pound sterling also fell for a second straight week last week against the US dollar and closed under the 1.5250 level which potentially sets up a new test of the 1.50 area in the near future. The GBP/USD will likely run into resistance at the 1.5250 level on upward momentum with the 1.5320 — 1.5350 area also providing a heavy previous resistance area. Further decline this week will likely see support coming in at the 1.5085 — 1.5100 area before a test of 1.5000 can occur.

gbpusd-w6-28




USD/JPY: The dollar rose again last week to gain against the Japanese yen for a second straight week after the USD/JPY had fallen for the previous four weeks. This week looks to be all about the 100.00 level and whether this pair can fight through this obstacle to the upside. The pair currently trades at 99.10 level and look for buying support at the 98.50 area and further down the line at the 97.50 level. There will be likely selling resistance at the 100.00 level from bears looking for this pair to fall lower. If this pair can overcome the 100 level, we could see a test of the 2013 high points soon to follow.

usdjpy-w6-28




USD/CHF: The US dollar gained against the Swiss franc for a second straight week last week and looks to test the 0.9500 level this week with further gains. The USD/CHF currency pair currently trades around the 0.9440 exchange rate and will likely encounter resistance at the 0.9500 level and then in the 0.9550 — 0.9575 area. Bearish price action for the week would likely see support coming in at the 0.9350 — 0.9330 area while further bearish action would likely see support into the 0.9260 — 0.9250 area.

usdchf-w6-28




USD/CAD: The US dollar continued its gain last week against the Canadian dollar after the previous week’s sharp advance. The USD/CAD currency pair currently trades over the 1.0500 level and is currently at the highest levels since 2011. If this currency pair finds support above the 1.0500 level we could see a test of the 2011 highs and perhaps the highest levels since 2009. We look for support in this pair at the 1.0500 level with further support down the line near last week’s lowest at the 1.0425 — 1.0450 area. Further upward momentum would likely run into resistance in the 1.0600 major level with previous resistance being spotted at the 1.0660 — 1.0680 area.

usdcad-w6-28




AUD/USD: The Australian dollar continued its decline against the US dollar last week for a second straight week and the seventh out of the last eight weeks. Further decline this week will likely target the 0.9000 major support level with the 0.8830 — 0.8850 previous support area sitting below. Upward price action will find resistance at the 0.9250 level with previous resistance being found around the 0.9330 — 0.9390 area.

audusd-w6-28




NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar was virtually unchanged against the US dollar last week and looks to find some buying support at the 0.7750 level this week as the pair has consolidated for the past five or six trading days right around this area. This pair could find upward momentum run into resistance around the 0.7850 level before the major 0.8000 level comes into focus. Further downward momentum would likely see this pair supported around the 0.7650 — 0.7670 area and then the 0.7600 level before the 0.7500 exchange rate becomes a major target.

nzdusd-w6-28




Highlights of Fundamental Economic Events Next Week

Sunday, June 30

China — leading index
Japan — Tankan manufacturing data
Australia — manufacturing index

Monday, July 1

China — manufacturing PMI
euro zone — consumer price index
United States — ISM manufacturing data
euro zone — purchasing managers index
United Kingdom — purchasing managers index

Tuesday, July 2

Australia — interest rate decision
euro zone — producer price index
United States — factory orders data

Wednesday, July 3

China — non-manufacturing PMI
Australia — retail sales data
Australia — trade balance
United States — ADP employment data
euro zone — retail sales
United States — weekly jobless claims
United States — trade balance
United States — ISM non-manufacturing

Thursday, July 4 – *American Holiday

United Kingdom — BOE interest rate decision
euro zone — ECB interest rate decision

Friday, July 5

Japan — leading index
Switzerland — consumer price index
United States — non-farm payroll report
Canada — employment change report
Canada — Ivey purchasing managers index




Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Research

 

10 Year Treasury Large Speculator bets rose for second week

By CountingPips.com

10Yr

10 Year Treasuries: Large trader and speculator positions for 10-year treasury notes in the futures markets advanced slightly last week to gain for a second consecutive week. 10-year treasury contracts rose to a total net position of +33,011 contracts in the data reported for June 25th following the previous week’s total of +31,229 net contracts on June 18th. 10-Year net contracts were positive for a second straight week and at the highest level in since May 7th when total net positions equaled +37,956 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Large Specs Change
05/21/2013 20206 31359
05/28/2013 -35505 -55711
06/04/2013 19684 55189
06/11/2013 -9195 -28879
06/18/2013 31229 40424
06/25/2013 33011 1782




Article by CountingPips.comForex News & Market Analysis

 

 

Large Currency Speculators trimmed US Dollar bullish bets last week for 4th straight week

By CountingPips.com


cot-values



The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders and speculators decreased their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a fourth consecutive week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, trimmed their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $13.28 billion as of Tuesday June 25th. This was a decline from the total long position of $14.55 Billion registered on June 18th, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the combined positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

USD net long positions are at their lowest level since February 19th when bullish positions equaled $1.481 billion, according to Reuters data calculations.

What is the COT Report:

The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The individual currency speculator net positions showed advances for the Australian dollar, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar last week while the euro, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc and the Mexican peso all had a declining number of net large trader contracts for the week.

Individual Currency Charts:


EuroFX:

Eurofx

EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro declined slightly last week after improving for the previous three consecutive weeks. Euro contracts dipped to a total net position of +17,357 contracts in the data reported for June 25th following the previous week’s total of +20,030 net contracts on June 18th. Despite the decrease, euro positions have now been in positive territory for two straight weeks after turning bullish for the first time since February 19th on June 18th.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO

Date Lg Trader Net Change
05/21/2013 -80949 -34028
05/28/2013 -84644 -3695
06/04/2013 -51621 33023
06/11/2013 -7533 44088
06/18/2013 20030 27563
06/25/2013 17357 -2673



British Pound Sterling:

gbp

GBP: British pound speculative positions improved slightly last week and reached their best position since February. British pound speculative positions improved to a total of -19,429 net contracts on June 25th following a total of -20,406 net contracts reported for June 18th. The last three weeks of advances have bumped up GBP net positions to their best level since February 12th when positions equaled -16,307 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/21/2013 -76976 -11621
05/28/2013 -74525 2451
06/04/2013 -77738 -3213
06/11/2013 -53687 24051
06/18/2013 -20406 33281
06/25/2013 -19429 977



Japanese Yen:

jpy

JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts improved last week for a fourth consecutive week and brought yen net contracts to their best position since February. Japanese yen positions improved to a total of -61,462 net contracts on June 25th following a total of -61,890 net short contracts on June 18th. This is the best level in net yen positions since February 12th when positions equaled -61,306 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/21/2013 -95186 -6779
05/28/2013 -99769 -4583
06/04/2013 -82744 17025
06/11/2013 -72906 9838
06/18/2013 -61890 11016
06/25/2013 -61462 428



Swiss Franc:

chf

CHF: Swiss franc large speculator positions decreased last week after improving for three consecutive weeks. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures declined to a total of +2,464 contracts on June 25th following a total of +5,791 net contracts reported for June 18th. Swiss franc net positions have now been on the positive side for two consecutive weeks.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/21/2013 -19930 -4520
05/28/2013 -28972 -9042
06/04/2013 -25803 3169
06/11/2013 -20738 5065
06/18/2013 5791 26529
06/25/2013 2464 -3327



Canadian Dollar:

cad

CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved last week for a third consecutive week and CAD positions continued to be at their best level since February. Canadian dollar positions rose to a total of -10,638 contracts as of June 25th following a total of -26,087 net contracts that were reported for June 18th. Net Canadian dollar positions are at a new best level since February 19th when positions equaled +19,379 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/21/2013 -33852 10565
05/28/2013 -33359 493
06/04/2013 -39776 -6417
06/11/2013 -35907 3869
06/18/2013 -26087 9820
06/25/2013 -10638 15449



Australian Dollar:

aud

AUD: Australian dollar large speculator positions increased slightly last week after declining for 12 consecutive weeks. Aussie speculative futures positions edged up to a total net amount of -61,644 contracts on June 25th after totaling -63,521 net contracts as of June 18th. This is the seventh week of bearish Aussie large spec contracts but with the rate of decline slowing, we could be witnessing a short-term bottom in Aussie bearish sentiment.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/21/2013 -32409 -18959
05/28/2013 -42307 -9898
06/04/2013 -58550 -16243
06/11/2013 -63277 -4727
06/18/2013 -63521 -244
06/25/2013 -61644 1877



New Zealand Dollar:

nzd

NZD: New Zealand dollar large speculator bets decreased slightly again last week and fell for an eighth consecutive week. NZD contracts declined lower to a total of -711 net long contracts as of June 25th following a total of +2,126 net long contracts on June 18th. Kiwi positions have now crossed over to the bearish side for the first time since June 19, 2012 when net positions equaled -2,213 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/21/2013 17782 -5434
05/28/2013 14011 -3771
06/04/2013 6013 -7998
06/11/2013 2653 -3360
06/18/2013 2126 -527
06/25/2013 -711 -2837



Mexican Peso:

mxn

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts decreased last week and fell for a sixth consecutive week. Peso positions declined lower to a total of +4,981 net speculative positions as of June 25th following a total of +20,949 contracts that were reported for June 18th. This is the lowest level for Mexican peso positions since June 26, 2012 when net positions equaled -7,647 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN

date Lg Trader Net Change Weekly
05/14/2013 140319 1875
05/21/2013 136863 -3456
05/28/2013 120864 -15999
06/04/2013 82871 -37993
06/18/2013 20949 -42825
06/25/2013 4981 -15968

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

 

Article by CountingPips.com