The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators increased their overall US dollar long positions last week for a second straight week while traders slightly added to their bearish view of the euro currency.
Non-commercial futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, added to their total US dollar long positions to $26.31 billion on July 17th from a total long position of $24.58 billion on July 10th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
EuroFX: Currency speculator sentiment for the euro decreased slightly last week to decline for a second consecutive week. Euro net short positions or bets against the currency rose to 167,249 contracts on July 17th from the previous week’s total of 165,705 net short contracts on July 10th. The latest euro sentiment standing is the lowest level since June 12th when positions equaled 195,187 short contracts.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.
GBP: British pound sterling positions improved ever so slightly last week to interrupt a streak of two consecutive weekly declines. British pound sterling speculative positions totaled 7,453 net short contracts on July 17th following a total of 7,622 net short contracts on July 10th.
JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts rose slightly for a second consecutive week last week. Yen positions edged higher to a total of 11,121 net long contracts reported on July 17th following a total of 8,952 net long contracts on July 10th. Japanese positions have now continued to be positive on the long side for a seventh consecutive week after crossing over on June 5th.
CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions declined last week after improving for two consecutive weeks. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 23,090 net short contracts on July 17th following a total of 17,584 net short contracts as of July 10th.
CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined lower for a third week in a row and fell over to the short side for the first time since January. Canadian dollar positions dipped to a total of 1,208 net short contracts as of July 17th following a total of 4,338 net long contracts that were reported for July 10th. This is the first time Canadian dollar positions have been on the short side since January 30th when large speculators contracts equaled 19,409 short positions.
AUD: The Australian dollar positions fell last week after improving for previous five consecutive weeks. Aussie speculative futures positions decreased to a total net amount of 13,931 long contracts on July 17th after rising to a total of 19,065 net long contracts as of July 10th.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions increased for a sixth straight week and advanced higher on the long side to the highest level since the beginning of May. NZD contracts increased to a total of 6,939 net long contracts as of July 17th following a total of 5,591 net long contracts on July 10th. The kiwi contracts are now at their highest level since May 1st when contracts equaled 8,025 long positions.
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts advanced for a sixth straight week and continued higher after crossing over into positive territory on July 3rd. Peso positions rose to a total of 34,989 net long speculative positions as of July 17th following a total of 25,222 long contracts that were reported for July 10th. Mexican peso positions have now reached their highest level in the last ten weeks.
COT Currency Data Summary as of July 17, 2012
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar