The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators decreased their overall US dollar long positions last week and broke a streak of five consecutive weeks of US dollar increased long positions.
Non-commercial futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, increased their total US dollar long positions to $38.77 billion on June 12th from a total long position of $39.65 billion on June 5th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
EuroFX: Currency speculator sentiment rebounded slightly for the euro currency last week as euro net short positions or bets against the currency decreased for the first time in six weeks. Euro short positions decreased to 195,187 contracts on June 12th from the previous week’s total of 214,418 net short contracts on June 5th. Euro positions had fallen to a new record high for the previous four consecutive weeks as sentiment for the euro deteriorated on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.
GBP: British pound sterling positions decreased last week for a fifth straight week after peaking at the highest level in over a year on May 8th. British pound positions continued lower on the short side and saw a total of 23,112 net short contracts on June 12th following a total of 2,867 net short contracts the previous week. June 5th was the first time pound sterling contracts had been on the short side since April 17th when positions totaled 13,051 short contracts and now contracts are at their lowest level since March 12th when short contracts equaled 41,848.
JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts improved slightly last week and rose for a ninth consecutive week. Yen positions totaled 12,307 net long contracts reported on June 12th following a total of 12,073 net short contracts on June 5th. Japanese positions have continued to benefit from the trend in risk aversion in the markets and the JPY is at its best level since February 20th when contracts equaled 17,257 long positions.
CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions edged slightly higher after decreasing the previous week. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 33,301 net short contracts on June 12th following a total of 33,648 net short contracts as of June 5th.
CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined for a sixth consecutive week after reaching the highest level of the year on May 1st. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of 9,620 net long contracts as of June 12th following a total of 14,906 long contracts that were reported for June 5th. Canadian dollar contract are at the lowest level since February 13th when positions equaled a total of 9,566 long contracts.
AUD: The Australian dollar positions rebounded slightly after dropping sharply for five consecutive weeks. Aussie positions edged higher to a total net amount of 45,459 short contracts on June 12th after falling to 51,172 net short contracts as of June 5th. AUD speculative positions were at the lowest level since at least 2009 on June 5th.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions slightly improved after falling for seven straight weeks. NZD contracts increased to a total of 3,885 net short contracts as of June 12th following a total of 5,530 net short contracts on June 5th. The kiwi contracts have now been on the short side for four consecutive weeks.
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts increased after declining the previous week. Peso positions rose to a total of 22,004 net short speculative positions as of June 12th following a total of 30,396 short contracts that were reported for June 5th. Mexican peso contracts on June 5th were at their lowest level since November 28th 2011 when positions equaled 36,240 short contracts.
COT Currency Data Summary as of June 12, 2012
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar