Antipodean’s Ferguson Says Euro May Reach Dollar Parity

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — Craig Ferguson, a currency hedge fund manager at Antipodean Capital Management in Melbourne, talks about Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and its implications for the region’s common currency. Ferguson also discusses the Australian dollar. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Dollar Continues to Tumble against Main Currency Rivals

Source: ForexYard


The combination of better than expected euro-zone news and a poor US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure caused the USD to extend its bearish trend throughout the day today. The EUR/USD shot up well over 100 pips during the European trading session, and once again broke the 1.3200 level before staging a slight downward correction. Meanwhile the USD/JPY hit a fresh three-month low earlier in the day. Rumors began to circulate that the Bank of Japan would soon intervene in the market place after the pair dropped as low as 76.02 earlier in the day.

Turning to tomorrow, a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke is likely to generate significant market volatility. Following the last speech from the Fed Chairman the dollar took heavy losses against its main currency rivals. While it is not yet known what Bernanke will say, the dollar may fall further unless he is able to boost investor confidence in the US economic recovery.

Traders will also want to remember that the all important US Non-Farm Payrolls figure is set to be released on Friday. The indicator is widely considered to be the most important news event on the economic calendar, and large shifts in the market place are guaranteed to occur. The USD may come under renewed pressure if the payrolls figure comes in below expectations.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Be Prepared! US Non-Farm Payrolls This Friday, February 3rd, 2012

Source: ForexYard


At FOREXYARD we encourage our customers to be prepared for major market events. As such, you should know that the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is scheduled to be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The NFP is considered one of the most important economic indicators and typically results in major market volatility with the potential to effect currencies, commodities and CFD’s.

Stay Informed!

While many investors remain focused on the European debt crisis, the jobs report will likely be the highlight of the trading day. While the US economy has seen some setbacks in recent weeks, a positive jobs report on Friday is likely to boost investor confidence in the American economic recovery.

Analysts are predicting that the US added 156K jobs in January. If the figure comes in at or above 156K, investors may decide to bet on riskier assets, like the EUR, GBP and crude oil. On the other hand, if the NFP figure comes in below 156K, investors may place their funds with safe haven assets, which may give currencies like the USD and JPY an opportunity to recoup some of their recent losses. Either way, forex traders can be sure that Friday will be an exceptional day in the markets.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Soros Skips Donation to Obama’s Super-PAC

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — George Soros, the billionaire investor who bankrolled Democratic groups during George W. Bush’s presidency, has decided not to donate to the political action committee working to re-elect President Barack Obama. Scarlet Fu reports on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

How Does the Value of the U.S. Dollar Fit Into the Big Picture for the Economy?

Robert Prechter discusses his views on the credit crisis and the U.S. dollar

By Elliott Wave International

More credit is denominated in U.S. dollars than any other currency. What does this mean for the value of the dollar as the credit crisis continues its strangle-hold on the world economies?

Enjoy this video clip of Bob Prechter from an October interview with The Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell, in which Bob discusses the debt implosion and the value of the U.S. dollar.

You can watch Prechter’s full 45-minute interview here — no sign up required!



Watch the full 45-minute interview FREEGet even more valuable insights as Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell interviews Elliott Wave International’s President, Robert Prechter, about how to keep your money safe, the deflation versus inflation debate, and many more topics that are critical to your financial future.Start watching the free 45-minute interview now — no sign up required! 

Gold, Stocks and the Euro All Gain in “Risk Asset Recovery” as Positive Manufacturing Data “Confirms China’s Soft Landing”

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
Wednesday 1 February 2012, 08:30 EST

THE U.S. DOLLAR cost of buying gold climbed to $1750 an ounce Wednesday morning London time – gold’s highest level since early December – while commodity prices also ticked higher and stock markets surged following the release of better-than-expected manufacturing data from several major economies.

Prices for buying silver rallied to $34.01 – though they remained below yesterday’s high.

US Treasury bond prices fell meantime, while the Euro rallied 1.3% against the Dollar.

“Buyers have returned to the Euro, which is helping the situation in gold,” says Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank.

“[Gold] had a bit of lackluster profit-taking yesterday but didn’t break anything important on the downside, which helped confirm that being long is back in vogue.”

“I think that going forward, gold is still going to be looking at the US and the Euro zone for direction,” reckons Phillip Futures analyst Ong Yi Ling in Singapore.

The wholesale market price of buying gold in Euros meantime rose to its highest level since September – hitting  €42,864 per kilo (€1333 per ounce) – before dropping ahead of US open.

Based on month-end PM London Fix prices, January saw gold’s biggest calendar month gain in Dollar terms since September 1999. The Dollars-per-ounce price of buying gold was fixed at $1744 yesterday – 13.9% up on the last PM Fix of 2011.

January also marked gold’s best start to a year since 1980, Amanda Cooper at Reuters reports.
Stock markets meantime recorded their best January since 1994, according to Bloomberg, which cites a 5.8% rise for the MSCI All-Country World Index if dividends are included.

“Three things have been behind the recovery in risk assets,” says Mike Ryan, chief investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas in New York.

“Progress on a fiscal compact in Europe, better-than- expected economic data and more accommodative central-bank policies.”

Stock markets gained strongly Wednesday morning too – with the FTSE 100 in London up 1.4% and Germany’s DAX up 2.4% by lunchtime – following news of worldwide manufacturing growth.

China’s manufacturing sector grew in January, according to the official purchasing managers index release, which rose to 50.5 from 50.3 last month (a figure above 50 indicates expansion).

“Today’s data further confirmed a soft-landing story for China,” reckons Ken Peng, economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing.

“However, consumer demand may weaken after holiday effects disappear.”

“New export orders declined,” points out Wei Yao, China economist at Societe Generale.

“Together with a depressed level of backlog orders…the boost in total orders looks temporary, and suggests that manufacturers are not very optimistic about the near-term outlook. Given today’s report, we think year on year export and import growth will prove to be barely positive in January.”

China’s PMI figure “was expansionary, but no so expansionary that we anticipate [monetary] tightening,” says one gold dealer here in London.

“There will be a power transition in Beijing this year,” adds a dealer in Hong Kong.

“I expect maintaining stability at all cost is what this government is going to do.”

Britain’s manufacturing sector also expanded in January, with the PMI coming in at 52.1 – having been below 50 the previous month. Similarly, German manufacturing resumed growth last month, according to its January PMI, which was reported today as 51.0.

Eurozone manufacturing as a whole, however, continued to shrink, albeit at a slower rate, with the PMI rising from 46.9 in December to 48.8 last month.

Similar manufacturing data for the US are released later on Wednesday. The latest ADP Employment Report meantime shows the US added 170,000 private sector jobs in January – down from around 300,000 the previous month. The official nonfarm payrolls data are due to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

Greece’s private sector creditors may be offered a ‘sweetener’ in the form of a bond whose coupon is tied to future economic growth, Bloomberg reports. Negotiations – which Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said yesterday are “one step” from success – stalled last week after parties could not agree on the size of the coupon on new bonds for which existing ones would be swapped.

The government in India – the world’s largest source of demand for buying gold– announced Wednesday it is raising the base import price of gold by 5.7% to $556 per 10 grams. Silver’s base import price will rise 12% to $1067 per kilo. The base import price is the price used to calculate the import duty.

The move follows last month’s switch from discrete to ad valorem taxation, a move which also saw the effective duty on gold almost doubled.

The higher import duties have had a “definite impact” on demand for buying gold in India, according to Harshad Ajmera, proprietor of JJ Gold House in Kolkata.

Ben Traynor

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.




EUR Bullish After EU Bailout-Fund Agreement

Source: ForexYard

The euro staged a small but significant upward correction during European trading yesterday, following an agreement among euro-zone leaders to set up a permanent bailout fund. The news briefly lifted the EUR/USD above the 1.3200 level, but the pair was not able to sustain its bullish momentum and began falling shortly after. Today, traders can expect heavy volatility in the marketplace ahead of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 13:15 GMT. A better than expected figure could help the USD in afternoon trading.

Economic News

USD – USD Takes Losses amid Positive Euro-Zone News

The US dollar slipped against its main currency rivals throughout the day yesterday, following positive euro-zone news that led to risk taking in the marketplace. The EUR/USD briefly drifted above the 1.3200 level, while the GBP/USD approached 1.5800 before staging a slight downward correction. Against the safe haven Japanese yen, the dollar was relatively unchanged after hitting a three-month low, which prompted fears that the Bank of Japan would intervene in the currency markets to limit the JPY’s growth.

Turning to today, a batch of significant US economic indicators are forecasted to generate market volatility during European trading. Particular attention should be given to the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure. The ADP figure is a precursor to Friday’s all important Non-Farm Employment Change. It is widely considered an accurate indicator of the current employment situation in the US and traders should be aware that heavy market movement will likely take place following its release. Should the figure come in above expectations, the USD could see a boost as a result.

EUR – EUR Stages Recovery Following EU News

News that euro-zone leaders came to an agreement to set up a permanent bailout fund lifted the euro throughout yesterday’s trading session. While Greece still has yet to come to an agreement with its creditors regarding a debt-swap deal, investors responded to the EU news by shifting their funds away from safe-havens to riskier assets. The EUR/USD briefly crosses the 1.3200 line as a result, while the EUR/JPY shot up over 50 pips before staging a downward correction.

Analysts are still maintaining that any gains the euro makes in the coming days are likely to be temporary. Even if Greece finally announces a debt-swap deal, as it is widely expected to do by the end of the week, optimism in the euro-zone economic recovery is likely to be short lived. Signs that Portugal is close to defaulting on its debt are one several indications that the euro-zone crises is far from over.

Today, traders will want to pay attention to the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure, as it is likely to determine the direction the euro takes in afternoon trading. Last week, negative US news led to major gains for the common currency. Should today’s news come in below forecasts, the euro may be able to extend its bullish trend.

JPY – JPY Maintains Gains against US Dollar

The Japanese yen remained close to a three-month high against the US dollar throughout yesterday’s trading day. The JPY’s prolonged bullish trend prompted fears among traders that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may intervene in the currency markets to limit the yen’s growth. A strong yen tends to have an adverse effect on Japan’s export heavy economy, and the BOJ has taken steps a number of times in the past to reduce the currency’s value.

Turning to today, the USD may be able to recoup some of its recent losses against the yen, providing a batch of US news comes in at or above expectations. Both the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI are likely to generate heavy volatility. Traders will want to pay attention to the results of both events, as they may set the trend for the USD/JPY for the next several days.

Crude Oil – Oil Soars Above $100 a Barrel

Positive euro-zone news generated a significant amount of risk taking yesterday, giving crude oil a healthy boost throughout the day. The commodity shot up over 150 pips, to well above the psychologically significant $100 a barrel level. Riskier commodities like crude oil often become more expensive when the euro goes up in value.

Today, traders will want to note the results of a batch of US news that could set the trend for oil going into the rest of the week. The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure, set to be released at 13:15, is likely to generate the most volatility. Should the dollar capitalize on the results of the employment figure, crude may see a downward reversal as a result.

Technical News


According to technical indicators on the daily chart, this pair is in overbought territory and may see a downward correction in the near future. A bearish cross has formed on the Stochastic Slow, while the Williams Percent Range is currently at the -10 level. Traders may want to go short in their positions ahead of the downward breach.


Technical indicators are showing that this pair may have hit a significant resistance point and could see a correction in the near future. The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index is in well into the overbought zone, while a bearish cross has formed on the Stochastic Slow. Going short may prove to be the wise choice.


Technical indicators on both the daily and weekly charts are showing that this pair is oversold and may see an upward correction in the near future. The daily chart’s MACD/OsMA has formed a bullish cross, while the weekly chart’s Relative Strength Index is hovering close to the oversold zone. Traders may want to go long in their positions.


Most technical indicators show this pair trading in the oversold zone, meaning that an upward correction could take place in the near future. The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is at the -90 level, while the Relative Strength Index on the same chart has dropped to the 15 level. Going long may be the preferred strategy today.

The Wild Card


Technical indicators on the daily chart are showing that this pair is oversold and may see an upward correction in the near future. The Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross, while the Relative Strength Index has drifted into the oversold territory. Forex traders may want to go long in their positions ahead of an upward breach.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.



Canadian Dollar Loses Steam on Weaker U.S. Outlook

After recently touching a 90-day high against its U.S. counterpart, the Canadian dollar’s advance appears to have stalled. The pause coincided with news that for the first time since last May, Canada’s economy shrank as Statistics Canada reported that the economy contracted by 0.1 percent for the month of November.

While manufacturing and several other sectors managed a gain for the month, a drop in oil and gas production more than offset the gains. November’s decline in GDP comes on the heels of a very weak gain in October making it all the more likely that the final quarter of the year will fall well below Statistics Canada projections. Nevertheless, Statistics Canada, even after factoring in the slowing fourth quarter, still expects GDP to have expanded by 2 percent for the year.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is nicknamed, had earlier benefitted from signs that Greece and its creditors were close to working out a deal to swap maturing debt with new debt offered at a significant discount to the bond holders. However, with confidence fading that a deal was as close as originally thought, optimism quickly waned.

After breaking through to parity last week, the loonie lost ground on Tuesday falling to C$1.0034 per U.S. dollar Tuesday afternoon. The retracement can also be linked to the latest U.S. consumer confidence update which shows a significant decline in January. The consumer confidence index fell from 65 in December to just 61 in January – a value of 90 is regarded as a healthy consumer confidence rating.

Should the weaker sentiment translate into lower  U.S. consumer spending, the impact will have an immediate and negative impact on Canadian exporters who count on U.S. consumers buying 75 percent of all Canadian exports.

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Motorola Solutions Increases Share Repurchase Program

Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI) announced it was boosting its share repurchase program to up to $3 billion from $2 billion.Motorola Solutions market cap is $14.91 billion, with shares outstanding of 325.5 million as of October 1st.The company has bought back $1.1 billion through December 31st, and has up to $1.9 billion left in the share repurchase program in 2012.The company also set April 30th as the date for its annual shareholder meeting.