Weekly Technical FX Preview – GBP/USD Shifting from Bearish to Bullish



The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern was followed by a false breakout above the trend line falling off of the May and July highs. A pullback from this resistance line formed a doji reversal candlestick which hints at declines in the EUR/USD. The 200-week moving average looks to be the first support at 1.4025 followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.3930. The rising trend line from the May low could also be supportive at 1.3830. To the upside 1.4580 will need to hold to maintain the bearish technical picture. A close above this level could go on to test 1.4700 and this year’s high of 1.4940.



Three weeks of consistent gains for cable are beginning to shift the technical picture from bearish to bullish. Sterling has moved above resistance levels that otherwise would have contained the pair. The first break occurred above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at 1.6185 and the second major break occurred at 1.6370 above the previous trend line rising from the May 2010 low. Initial resistance will be the May 31st high at 1.6550 followed by the April high at 1.6745. A move lower for the GBP/USD will likely test the base at 1.6260 followed by the previously broken trend line off of the April high at 1.6140. A breach of 1.6000 could have scope towards 1.5780.



Yen strength has returned with a vengeance. Last week’s candlestick closed with a shaved bottom indicating momentum is to the downside. This week’s opening gapped higher but the price managed to hold below the current short term trend line from the July 20th high which comes in at 78.05. Additional resistance may be 79.60 and the 55-day moving average at 80.15 but the downside is calling. Support is found at 76.70 from last week’s low followed by the all-time low from March at 76.11. A break here and we move into uncharted territory where the psychological support at 75.00 and 70.00 come into play.



The Swiss franc is in a similar position as the yen as the USD/CHF moves into uncharted territory. Bias remains to be short but Monday’s opening gap higher could create a Harami reversal pattern which may lead slight gains for the pair. A daily close will be needed for confirmation. Resistance is found at 0.8080 and 0.8275. A move higher to these levels would provide for potential short entries back into the long term downtrend with targets at the big round number at 0.7800.


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