India Could Be the Best Growth Opportunity on the Planet

Yesterday I was sitting in my favorite Indian restaurant. I don’t get to go there often since we’ve moved all the way out to the farm. They have the best paneer masala…

Now, I haven’t had the chance to try it in India, mind you. Taipan has not sent me there yet. But I’ve been watching as stories about India pop up all over the place.

I might have to talk our executive publisher into letting me take one more trip…

It was actually a census update published on that grabbed my interest. The article said, “India will be the most populous nation [in 2050], surpassing China sometime around 2025.”

I see an interesting investment trend… one that can be exploited for the next 20 years.

India’s population could soar to 1.656 billion by the year 2050.

Those people will need a lot more food and energy. Commodities are one of the best places to look for an investment opportunity in India.

Last Wednesday, Russia’s Gazprom signed a 25-year agreement to provide liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Indian Oil Corporation, Ltd. It’s the fourth agreement Gazprom signed with Indian companies this year.

These deals could be worth more than $90 billion, and that’s just for starters.

There’s talk of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) to help finance energy deals. Folks are worried India is falling behind China as it builds its foreign energy supplies, particularly in places like Africa.

Not everyone in the Indian government wants an SWF. That’s why the idea is still in the proposal stages. It’s a real possibility, though.

We can take advantage of the idea India needs energy supplies.

One of the most profitable areas of the energy sector will be nuclear power. According to BBC News, India’s nuclear power market is estimated to be around $150 billion.

That market is now open to investors. India’s lower house of parliament passed a law last year that opens the door for private investments in the nuclear market.

India’s going to need all the help it can get. It has an ambitious plan to build 30 nuclear plants in the next 30 years. Nine countries signed deals with India to help build its nuclear power market.

This is going to be a big area of investment, and a long-term trend to keep coming back to.

(Don’t forget to sign up for Smart Investing Daily and let me and fellow editor Jared Levy simplify the market for you with our easy-to-understand articles.)

Another area we should look at is consumer spending.

India’s middle class is growing, and they like to spend their money.

Ford (F:NYSE) has a second Indian production plant in the works. The plant will cost $1 billion and create 5,000 jobs. Production could start in 2014. Ford sold more than 95,000 cars in India between April 1, 2010, and May 31, 2011.

Not bad for one plant…

Unilever, plc (UL:NYSE) makes consumer goods. It is already a powerful company in India. Now it’s looking to media and technology. Almost half of India’s citizens are under 25 years old. There is huge potential in India’s youth population.

Unilever could make big investments in things like information technology and brand promotion.

India’s population isn’t supposed to jump ahead of China’s until 2025, but companies are already getting a head start in this growing country.

The BBC’s Soutik Biswas says that India has more than 800 million telephone subscribers and produces more than 3 million passenger cars. Domestic air travel is six times higher now than 20 years ago.

I see India as a kind of safety bunker against the U.S.’s crushing money crisis… And I’m not the only one.

An interesting report from India’s Table Tennis Federation (via Reuters):

Table Tennis Federation of India (TTFI) officials were rather bemused when the Swedish coach they recently approached demanded payment in Indian currency and not in American dollars.

Anders Johansson’s argument was the dollar had been losing steadily to the Swedish crown and the steadier Indian rupee was a better option.

This reminds us of when that Brazilian supermodel wanted to be paid in euros back in 2007.

The U.S. dollar has fallen almost 10% against Sweden’s krona in the past year. India’s rupee has lost less than 7% against the krona.

This is just another example of how shaky the U.S. economy is. When Swedish ping-pong coaches won’t take dollars, we know we’re in trouble.

India is just one of the safety bunkers I’m researching for this year’s conference in Las Vegas. Taipan Publishing Group’s Money Crisis Survival Summit will show you how to protect yourself during the biggest shift of wealth the world has ever seen.

The money crisis won’t wipe out trillions of dollars. The money will just change hands. And that means you can be ready to take advantage of this transfer of wealth…

If you know where it’s headed.

P.S. Understanding what lies ahead and knowing how to take advantage of it is what our Money Crisis Survival Summit is all about. I want to show you more about this conference, and how important it is for you to attend. I’m attaching a short video for you. Take a few minutes and watch it — it isn’t long.

If you’re determined to protect your wealth from the coming money crisis, you need to start planning for your survival now.

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Macquarie’s Thong on Japan Technology Stocks’ Outlook: Video

July 28 (Bloomberg) — Damian Thong, a Tokyo-based analyst at Macquarie Securities Ltd., speaks about the outlook for Japanese manufacturers and technology companies as they recover from the March 11 earthquake. Thong speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Is Job Growth in Germany Decelerating?


The speed of job creation in Germany, as indicated by this morning’s unemployment change report, appears to be in deceleration. The German economy has seen positive change in unemployment since June 2009, but today’s slow-down pushes the jobs sector closer to contraction.

Does this mean Germany’s employment sector is in peril? Not at all. This data serves as a lagging indicator on the employment sector since it is released 30 days after the month ends, and it tends to be leaked prior to official publication, making the impact of its release somewhat murky. Germany’s rate of unemployment shrinkage is one sign of optimism in the euro zone’s largest economy, today’s numbers merely suggest sluggishness is beginning to creep in.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

US Unemployment Claims Better than Forecast


Data released by the US Department of Labor this afternoon revealed a slowing in unemployment growth for the final week of July. Seeing a rise of 398,000 new claims for first-time unemployment benefits does not sound optimistic, but it is the lowest increase seen in the weekly report since the third week of April.

Forecasts were expecting a rise of 413,000 new claims, making this better-than-forecast report a sign of market optimism. Weekly data has the tendency to shift dramatically, meaning this week’s report could be an outlier in the macro data, but it is no less beneficial for short-term traders.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Japanese Retail Sales See 1.1% Growth


The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) published its latest findings on the island economy’s change in retail sales since last month, presented in annualized format. The data revealed retail sales in Japan growing 1.1%, year-on-year, beating expectations for a 0.6% contraction.

The rise in consumer spending in Japan has been spurned by the steady strengthening felt in the value of the Japanese yen (JPY) versus its currency counterparts. Japanese citizens are carrying more buying power which has helped fuel their recovery from the damage wrought by the spring tsunami.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

EUR/USD Can’t Hold Above 1.45


For the second day in a row the US dollar is stronger as the weakness seen in US equities yesterday has carried over into the European trading session. US law makers are no closer to a solution to raise the debt ceiling than they were yesterday and this is reflected in both the value of the EUR/USD and in global equities.

Falling in-line with the S&P’s 2.0% decline yesterday European equities are lower across the board with the DAX down 1.75% and the FTSE lower by 0.75%. A lack of deal to avert a US default continues to weigh on market sentiment combined with yesterday’s weak core durable goods orders has hit equities particularly hard.

In the foreign exchange markets the dollar has surprisingly benefited from this environment while gains in the JPY and CHF have been mute. In all fairness the USD/CHF did fall below 0.800 before moving slightly higher. The euro is down versus the dollar but noticeably lower in the crosses. This is despite Spain reporting a 19% reduction of the government’s budget deficit and declining German unemployment, albeit at a slower than expected.

While the media headlines point to the US debt negotiations as the market mover the inability of the EUR/USD to hold above the 1.45 level is telling. At 1.4270 the pair has made a 38% retracement of the move from July 12th to yesterday’s high. The next retracement target is found at 1.4100 with support just below at 1.4070. Resistance is at 1.4320 and yesterday’s high of 1.4540. In the crosses the EUR/JPY has broken lower from a bearish flag pattern and has support at 110.60 followed by 109.55. A move higher could find its way to 112.75 without jeopardizing the bearish chart pattern.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

SocGen’s Juckes Expects Won, Singapore Dollar to Rise

July 28 (Bloomberg) — Kit Juckes, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Societe Generale SA, discusses the outlook for currencies including South Korea’s won, Singapore’s dollar and the euro. He talks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Economic Doomsday So Far Not Materializing

By ForexYard

The value of safe-haven assets has been given a boost by a shift away from higher yielding assets this week, though the dollar has been receiving fewer of these gains than normal. What is noteworthy, however, is the lack of dire economic shifts as most politicians and media pundits have anticipated in their day-to-day posts and commentary. Should we be concerned or relieved?

Economic News

USD – USD Pares Losses after Severe Downturn

The US dollar (USD) was seen trading mildly bullish at yesterday’s close after a day of severe downturns in value. The value of safe-haven assets has been given a boost by a shift away from higher yielding assets, though the dollar has been receiving fewer of these gains than normal. What is noteworthy, however, is the lack of dire economic shifts as most politicians and media pundits anticipate in their day-to-day posts and commentary.

Data so far has inched traders into a position of market pessimism which has dropped the value of riskier assets while garnering support for the safe-haven currencies. Little news has emerged which put a dent in the amount of pessimism surrounding the forex market, particularly in the fragile United States and euro zone in spite of calls for such a move to be edging closer.

With a moderate news day expected today, traders are sure to see a surge in portfolio adjustments as volatility remains elevated. The US economy will be publishing several reports today, mainly on housing and employment. Should today’s news disappoint, there is a possibility that more investment will get pushed towards safety, but causing further consternation for USD traders as sentiment is mixed. Traders will also want to keep an eye on euro zone economic news as it may impact risk sentiment during the morning sessions.

EUR – EUR Jumps against USD before Settling

The euro (EUR) was seen trading with largely bullish results yesterday as traders move into and away from riskier assets across the region. Against the US dollar (USD) the euro was seen trading bullish in late trading as shifts away from the greenback, due to uncertainty about a possible failure to lift the US debt ceiling, caused a stir in the foreign exchange market.

Euro zone stock markets were hit early this week by an attack in Oslo, Norway, last Friday in which a gunman set off a bomb in the city’s center and opened fire at a kid’s summer camp nearby. The knee-jerk flight from the region’s investments pulled down on the EUR in earlier sessions but has so far been recovered by repatriating shifts.

On tap today, traders will witness the release of a moderately significant report on unemployment in Germany. Should the data reveal stagnation in jobs growth, we could see heftier flights to safety in the days and weeks ahead. This would likely push the value of the EUR lower over the long-haul as traders continue to flee risk in larger numbers.

AUD – Aussie Continues to See Mixed Results

The Australian dollar (AUD) was trading with mixed results versus its currency counterparts yesterday after data releases began to shift traders back into safety. The Aussie has been losing momentum these past few weeks as risk aversion becomes predominant in the global market. Fears surrounding the current debt ceiling negotiations in the US are also dragging on global economic outlook.

This movement has gouged the AUD against all of its currency rivals, especially against safe-havens like the US dollar (USD) and Japanese yen (JPY). Being tied to commodity prices could help lift the AUD in the near future as oil prices continue to soar, but general risk aversion is likely to push the currency lower as traders flee risk. Inflationary growth data yesterday helped the Aussie hold some of its value, though sentiment continues to show mixed directionality.

Oil – Crude Prices Steady amid Risk Aversion

Crude Oil prices held steady Wednesday as sentiment appeared to favor a downturn in global stocks should the US fail to lift its debt ceiling by August 2. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

An expected jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk averse environment has helped many investors ram up their short-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD’s gains not materializing, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by week’s end.

Technical News


The EUR/USD has taken a step away from the edge after failing to get a close below its 200-day moving average and the price is testing the falling trend line from the May and July highs at 1.4450. Short term momentum is currently rising and break above this resistance line may find resistance at the peaks from July, June, and May at 1.4580, 1.4700, and 1.4940 respectively. However, a bearish tweezer candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart from last week’s highs on Thursday and Friday, strengthening the argument for the 3-month old resistance line to hold. Support is found at 1.4015, 1.3835, and 1.3780 from the rising trend line off of the June 2010 low.


After dipping as low as 1.5780 which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level from the May 2010 to April 2011 move, Cable has broken above both the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern and the resistance line falling from the April and May highs. The pair has now found resistance at the previously broken trend line from the May 2010 low and now serves as initial resistance at 1.6360. A move above this line will likely go on to test the May high at 1.6545 though sterling bears may make a stand before the April high of 1.6745. To the downside support may come in where the neckline and the previous resistance line off the April and May highs intercept at 1.6190. Additional support is located at 1.6000 and the July low at 1.5780.


The reemergence of yen strength has taken the USD/JPY one step closer to its all-time low at 76.11. Falling stochastics on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts all point to additional declines in the pair. Initial support is found at 78.20 followed by the lower line from the falling wedge pattern from December 2008 which comes in at 77.50. A move higher may find resistance at 79.60 and 81.50.


An attempt to push the USD/CHF higher ran into resistance at 0.8270. Since failing to hold any gains the pair looks to test the most recent all-time low at 0.8080. Any attempt to move the pair higher will likely encounter resistance at 0.8270 and 0.8385 from the falling trend line off the February high. Relative value sellers of the pair may also be lurking at 0.8550.

The Wild Card


A month long rally in crude oil prices from $90-100 has been capped at a falling resistance line from the May, June, and July highs. Today the resistance line comes in at $100. Forex traders should note a break above this line could test the next resistance at $104.50. Support is located at $93.50.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

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