ADP Employment rises by 217K jobs. US Dollar falls in Forex Trading, Stocks on rise.

By CountingPips.com

U.S. employment data released today in the form of the ADP private employment report showed that private companies hired a total of 217,000 workers in the month of February. This data surpassed the market forecasters and follows a revised gain of 189,000 workers in January. The original January report had shown a rise of 187,000 workers.

Market forecasters and economists were expecting the jobs report to come in with a gain of approximately 185,000 jobs for the month. The advance in private February jobs pushed the streak of service-sector gains to thirteen consecutive months of increases and the goods-producing sector to the fifth straight month of gains.

The service sector saw an increase of 202,000 workers in February and the goods-producing sector registered a gain of 15,000 workers. Manufacturing jobs rose by 20,000 workers while the construction sector declined by 9,000 workers. The financial sector was virtually unchanged in February.

Large businesses added 13,000 workers for February while medium-size businesses hired 104,000 workers. Small businesses or companies with less than 50 workers also saw employment payrolls climb by 100,000 workers for the month.

The market-moving US nonfarm government payroll report is scheduled to be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Early forecasts are looking for the payrolls report to increase by 182,000 workers and the unemployment rate to level at 9.1 percent.

Forex: US dollar on the defensive as Stocks rise

The US dollar has mostly lower against the other major currencies in the forex markets today. The dollar has lost ground on the day versus the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the British pound sterling while gaining on the New Zealand dollar.

The US stock markets, meanwhile, have been on the uptick in morning trading today with the Dow Jones industrial average increasing by over 40 points while the NASDAQ has been higher by over 20 points and the S&P 500 has increased by roughly 6 points at time of writing.

In commodities, oil has edged up slightly by $0.23 to the $99.86 level while gold futures have been virtually unchanged at the $1,430.70 level so far today.

AUD Toying with Key Resistance Levels

By Greg Holden

For those watching, the persistent rise of the Australian dollar (AUD) was given impetus recently by soaring commodity prices. With Australia’s economy linked with the price of precious metals, the climb in Gold and Silver has been met by a rise in the Aussie as well.

What is interesting to note is where the Aussie has reached against a number of its currency rivals. Three pairs stand out in particular: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, and AUD/CHF (see charts below).

These pairs are all testing price parity (the AUD/CHF is not necessarily testing it, but is close enough to warrant interest). Both the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD reached this price mark in October 2010 and have been flirting with this level ever since. The AUD/CHF reached it much sooner, but has since fallen below parity due to the Swiss franc’s rising appeal over the second half of 2010.

What is worth noting for the first two – but not necessarily the third – is that parity against the USD and CAD represents a price range which has historically lacked sufficiently sustainable support. The question then to ask is, Can the AUD hold its gains against these monetary giants?

The CAD is linked with Crude Oil prices which makes its decline versus the AUD somewhat intriguing. The fundamental support doesn’t appear as strongly in that pair, but the AUD is rising relatively faster regardless.

Making a speculative assessment, it seems the AUD is bouncing within a price range against a few of its primary rivals that has been historically difficult to break beyond. So long as precious metals continue to climb, which appears a given in today’s market, the AUD should continue to find support.

This makes it interesting to wonder why its value hasn’t climbed well beyond parity against these currencies. It may be even more interesting to ask about what forces are holding it back.

AUD/USD – Weekly Chart

AUD/CAD – Weekly Chart

AUD/CHF – Weekly Chart


Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Top 10 Hedge Funds’ Profits Surpass Those of Banks

March 2 (Bloomberg) — The top 10 hedge funds, measured by total dollar returns since they started, made profits for their investors of $28 billion in the second half of 2010, the Financial Times reported, citing research by LCH Investments. That was more than the combined profits of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc, the newspaper said. Bloomberg’s Deirdre Bolton reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Forex Daily Market Commentary: The Dollar continues recovering

By GCI Forex Research

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)

USD

The dollar continued to recover lost ground on the back of weaker risk appetite. Ratings agency comments about Greece and Portugal did not help. Nor did calls for a cut to the OCR by New Zealand Prime Minister Key. Weaker-than-expected Australian Q4 GDP also contributed to the sombre mood. EURUSD traded 1.3744-1.3811, USDJPY 81.82-81.98. Gold and oil remain elevated and the Nikkei-225 is down 2.4% at the time of writing. US data releases were largely in line and Fed Chairman Bernanke offered little new in his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to Congress. Bernanke said the Fed is not debasing the dollar and pointed to the need for sustained stronger job creation. He also believes that the recent jump in commodity prices will not have a permanent effect on broader inflation. The ISM Manufacturing slightly exceeded estimates. ADP employment data is due.

EUR

S&P said its ratings on Greece and Portugal remain on credit-watch negative. In Greece’s case, the agency said the rating will depend on the features of the proposed new European rescue mechanism due to come into being in 2013. Greece’s compliance with the terms of the existing EU/IMF rescue plan is also a consideration. S&P added that Portugal may have to resort to EFSF and IMF funding, in which case the rating would depend on the terms of any consequent loan agreements.
Eurozone PMI releases were generally strong, beating consensus in Germany, Italy, and France. The German unemployment rate also fell marginally to 7.3%. The Eurozone CPI estimate came in line with expectations at 2.4%, still significantly above the ECB’s target level.

GBP

A number of BoE policymakers testified before a parliamentary committee, but no new views were expressed. Governor King once again said that raising interest rates to make a gesture is “self-defeating”. Deputy Governor Bean echoed King’s previous comments that inflation in the region of 4-5% is likely, but will then come down.

AUD

The AUD weakened slightly when Q4 GDP came in fractionally softer than expected at +0.7%q/q (cons. +0.7%) and +2.7% y/y (cons. 2.8%).

NZD

The NZD fell sharply after Prime Minister Key said he would welcome a cut in the OCR, and that he cannot rule out a recession in the first half of this year

CAD

The BoC left policy unchanged as expected, and did not signal any near-term shift. Officials noted improving performance in the US and in Canada, but they also cited challenges from persistent CAD strength and an uncertain global outlook. Elevated oil prices are supportive for Canada and we continue to expect the BoC to resume tightening ahead of the rest of the G10 dollar-bloc central banks.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBPUSD 1.6330 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.3862 break of which would expose 1.3948/74 zone. Near term support is at 1.3705.
USDJPY BEARISH Support defined at 81.62; move below this would expose 81.13. Initial resistance is at 82.24, yesterday’s high.
GBPUSD BULLISH Initial resistance at 1.6330, the reaction high defined yesterday, ahead of 1.6379. Support is defined at 1.6145.
USDCHF BEARISH Support zone is at 0.9228/00, breach of this would expose 0.8951 next. Near-term resistance at 0.9392.
AUDUSD BULLISH Pullback through 1.0088 exposes 1.0002. While this holds, expect recovery towards 1.0202 and 1.0256 next.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9684 would expose 0.9600. Resistance at 0.9800.
EURCHF BEARISH Support lies at 1.2706, break of this would expose 1.2686 and 1.2592. Near-term resistance is at 1.2893.
EURGBP BULLISH As long as support at 0.8423 holds, expect gains towards 0.8555 ahead of 0.8593.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 114.19 and 111.96 mark the near-term directional triggers.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Technical Signal – EUR/CHF – Downtrend Looks to Continue

By Russell Glaser

After a technical retracement the EUR/CHF should resume its sharp downtrend.

In early February the EUR/CHF collapsed at the 200-day moving average February’s move took the pair from 1.3200 to 1.2700.

The EUR/CHF has since undergone a technical retracement of the February move, climbing as high as the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the February downtrend at 1.2900 where the pair ran into resistance and the bearish trend resumed.

A technical retracement actually reinforces a strong trending environment and signals further moves in the direction of the trend. As such, following a breach of the 1.2700 support level, we may expect the EUR/CHF to now target the 2010 low at 1.2400.

Resistance is found at yesterday’s high of 1.2900, followed by 1.2970, and the falling trend line off of the October and February highs which comes in today at 1.3100.

EURCHF

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Gold: Cooling off this morning after yesterday’s surge

GoldGold Movement

Gold prices traded higher by 1.43% against the USD in the 24 hour period ending 23:00GMT, at 1,431.79 per ounce.

In the Asian session at 4:00GMT, gold is trading at USD 1429.99 per ounce, 0.13% lower from 23:00GMT.

The pair is expected to find its first short term resistance at 1,439.42, with the next resistance at 1,448.86. The pair is expected to find support at 1,415.62 and subsequently at 1,401.26.

The pair is trading just above its 50 Hr moving average and well above its 20 Hr moving average.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

ADP Non-Farm Figure Set to Generate Volatility

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar saw very little substantial movement during the Asian trading session as investors eagerly await today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure, set to be released at 13:15 GMT. Analysts are predicting the ADP number to come in below last month’s, which if true, would likely cause the greenback to turn bearish.

Economic News

USD – Dollar May Reverse Yesterday’s Gains Today

The USD had an unusually strong day yesterday, following the release of better than expected manufacturing data that boosted confidence in the US economic recovery. Following the release of the data, the EUR/USD began to tumble, eventually dropping close to 80 pips. Currently the pair is trading around the 1.3770 level. Similarly, the GBP/USD fell close to 70 pips, and is currently trading close to the 1.6240 level.

The day was not entirely positive for the dollar. Middle East turmoil is still driving investors toward safe haven currencies. As such, the greenback remains bearish against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF cross dropped close to 40 pips since yesterday morning, and is currently trading around the 0.9280 level.

Today, investors are eagerly anticipating the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure, set for 13:15 GMT. The figure is considered to be one of the most important US economic indicators, and heavy trading is expected as a result. At the moment, analysts are predicting a drop in the employment figure over last month. If true, the dollar could reverse yesterday’s gains.

In addition, the Fed Chairman is scheduled to testify 15:00. Should he continue to voice concerns over the unemployment situation in the US, investors are likely to short the buck in evening trading.

EUR – Euro Extends Bearish Trend

The EUR/USD unexpectedly turned bearish yesterday, as the combination of the pair hitting a key resistance level and positive US manufacturing data caused investors to short their positions. In addition, the euro has extended its losses against the safe-haven Swiss franc. The EUR/CHF has dropped close to 100 pips since yesterday afternoon, and is currently trading around the 1.2770 level.

While no significant euro-zone data is scheduled to be released today, traders will want to pay close attention to the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure. If the figure comes in at 178K as expected, investors are likely to go long in their EUR/USD positions. At the same time, the ADP figure is notoriously hard to predict. A better than forecasted figure may cause the euro to drop further against the dollar.

JPY – Yen Moves Up Based on Safe-Haven Appeal

The yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset led to gains in overnight trading against riskier currencies like the euro and UK pound. The EUR/JPY is currently down well over 100 pips from yesterday afternoon and is trading at 112.60. Meanwhile, the GBP/JPY has dropped around 95 pips in the same amount of time, and is currently trading around 132.90.

The combination of poor global economic indicators and the continuous uncertainties in the Middle East have caused investors to revert to less volatile currencies like the yen. While there are no significant economic releases out of Japan today, yen traders will want to continue to keep up to date about the situation in Libya. Further violence in the country is likely to continue to drive investors toward the yen.

OIL – Spot Crude Oil Closes above $100

Crude oil is once again trading close to the $100 a barrel level as investors remain concerned about the situation in the Middle East. Fears that the violence that has rocked Libya over the last week will spread to other oil producing countries continue to drive prices up.

Today, in addition to any developing news out of the Middle East, traders will also want to pay attention to the US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 15:30 GMT. Analysts are predicting an increase in US stockpiles from last week. If true, the price of oil may actually go down during the evening session, as it would be a sign of decreased demand in the US.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Virtually all technical indicators on the 8-hour and daily charts are showing this pair trading in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for the moment, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself as the day progresses.

GBP/USD

A bearish cross on the 8-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow indicates that the pair is in overbought territory and may see a downward correction in trading today. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is hovering in the overbought region. Going short may be the preferred strategy today.

USD/JPY

A bullish cross has formed on the 8-hour chart’s MACD, indicating that the pair could see upward movement today. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart. Going long appears to be preferable for this pair today.

USD/CHF

Both the Relative Strength Index and Williams Percent Range on the daily chart indicate that the pair is in oversold territory. Traders can take this as a sign that the pair may see an upward correction in trading today.

The Wild Card

NZD/JPY

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has just crossed over into the oversold zone, indicating the pair could see upward movement today. Furthermore, the 8-hour chart’s MACD has just formed a bullish cross. Forex traders now have an opportunity to open up long positions and catch this trend at the beginning.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

AUD Toying with Key Resistance Levels

printprofile

For those watching, the persistent rise of the Australian dollar (AUD) was given impetus recently by soaring commodity prices. With Australia’s economy linked with the price of precious metals, the climb in Gold and Silver has been met by a rise in the Aussie as well.

What is interesting to note is where the Aussie has reached against a number of its currency rivals. Three pairs stand out in particular: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, and AUD/CHF (see charts below).

These pairs are all testing price parity (the AUD/CHF is not necessarily testing it, but is close enough to warrant interest). Both the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD reached this price mark in October 2010 and have been flirting with this level ever since. The AUD/CHF reached it much sooner, but has since fallen below parity due to the Swiss franc’s rising appeal over the second half of 2010.

What is worth noting for the first two – but not necessarily the third – is that parity against the USD and CAD represents a price range which has historically lacked sufficiently sustainable support. The question then to ask is, Can the AUD hold its gains against these monetary giants?

The CAD is linked with Crude Oil prices which makes its decline versus the AUD somewhat intriguing. The fundamental support doesn’t appear as strongly in that pair, but the AUD is rising relatively faster regardless.

Making a speculative assessment, it seems the AUD is bouncing within a price range against a few of its primary rivals that has been historically difficult to break beyond. So long as precious metals continue to climb, which appears a given in today’s market, the AUD should continue to find support.

This makes it interesting to wonder why its value hasn’t climbed well beyond parity against these currencies. It may be even more interesting to ask about what forces are holding it back.

AUD/USD – Weekly Chart
AUDUSD - Weekly Chart

AUD/CAD – Weekly Chart
AUDCAD - Weekly Chart

AUD/CHF – Weekly Chart
AUDCHF - Weekly Chart

USDJPY traded in a range between 81.62 and 82.23

USDJPY traded in a range between 81.62 and 82.23. The price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 83.96. As long as 82.23 resistance holds, another fall towards 81.13 support is possible after consolidation. However, a break above 82.23 will indicate that the fall from 83.96 had completed at 81.62 already, then the following upward move could bring price to 93.00 zone.

usdjpy

Daily Forex Forecast

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