USDJPY formed a cycle top at 88.11

USDJPY formed a cycle top at 88.11 level on 4-hour chart. Now the fall from 88.11 is treated as resumption of downtrend from 92.88 (Jun 4 high). Further fall towards 84.82 (2009 low) is expected in next several days. Key resistance is at 88.11, only rise above this level could indicate that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway.


Daily Forex Forecast

S&P500: What makes a frustrating market?

By Adam Hewison – The S&P 500 is turning out to be a conundrum for many professionals
and home traders alike. The conflicting information on good earnings,
high unemployment, and other factors continue to batter the market.
One moment the SP500 is heading for the stars and the next, it’s
heading to the cellar.

So what’s a trader to do?

In my new video, I share with you some steps you can use to help
improve your trading in the S&P 500 and other markets. The new video
is approximately 3 minutes long and it will show you several key
areas and levels that I am looking at.

As always our videos are free to watch and you do not have to register.

I would like to see your feedback on how you see the market, as so many
traders are becoming frustrated with the lack of real follow-through in
either direction.

Watch the SP500 video now…

Enjoy the video and all the best,

Adam Hewison
President of
Co-founder MarketClub

Divergence Signals Sell for Spot Gold

By Russell Glaser – A sharp price decline of 8% in the price of spot gold over the past month may have created a short term buying opportunity in the commodity, but divergence on the weekly chart shows a sign that the long term trend is failing. Multiple signs that the long term trend is weakening are coming from both the weekly chart and the daily.

Following yesterday’s disappointing U.S. core durable goods orders, the price of spot gold rose to $1165.60 after opening the day at $1163.45. The commodity fell to a low on the day to $1156.25. Following this price action, the end result was a hanging man candlestick that could signal a rally in the price of spot gold if the commodity can breach above the $1169 resistance level. A short term boost in the price could be to the resistance at $1186.

The weekly chart of spot gold shows the commodity has breached below the long term trend line that began in October of 2008. A weekly close below the line would confirm the breach of the trend, providing a shift in the long term trend of the commodity.

At the time the price hit a record high price at $1265, an evening doji star candlestick pattern formed, a warning that the long term bullish trend is changing. Confirmation of the pattern came the next week with the long red candlestick. Supporting the downward move is a doji candlestick that formed the following week after the evening star pattern.

But what stands out most for the weekly chart is the divergence that is appearing on the slow stochastic oscillator. Divergence occurs when prices reach a new peak but an indicator fails to reach a new peak.

When the price of spot gold reached a new high on June 21st, the slow stochastic oscillator rose to a new high. But shortly after when the price rose to a new all time high, the slow stochastic oscillator did not make a new high. This shows divergence in the price of the commodity and the oscillator, signaling that the trend is weakening.

Divergence for the slow stochastic provides a strong sell signal in preparation for an oncoming drop in the price of a commodity, perhaps more powerful than the crossing of the stochastic lines.

This is yet another tool in a trader’s tool chest that allows one to identify potential tops and bottoms in trending markets.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Forex: Dollar down, Stocks up as Jobless Claims decline by 11,000. Euro hits over 2-month high.


The U.S. dollar has been trading lower in the forex markets on a day with little U.S. economic data released while the American stock markets have advanced higher in the early going today. The dollar has fallen versus the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar in the morning of the US trading session after ending yesterday mixed.

The U.S. stock markets, meanwhile, have had a positive start today with the Dow gaining around 50 points, the Nasdaq increasing by over 6 points while the S&P 500 is up by over 5 points at time of writing. Oil has moved higher by $1.20 to $78.19 per barrel while gold has also edged up by $2.40 to trade at the $1,162.80 per ounce level.

Weekly Jobless Claims fall by 11,000

U.S. weekly jobless claims decreased by more than expected in the week that ended on July 24th, according to a release by the U.S. Labor Department today. New jobless claims fell by 11,000 workers to a total of 457,000 unemployed workers, marking the third decrease in claims in the past four weeks. The 4-week moving average of unemployed workers decreased by 4,500 workers from the previous week to a total of 452,500.

Market forecasts were expecting jobless claims to edge down to 459,000 workers following the prior week’s 468,000 revised number of claims.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 17th increased for the week. Continuing claims rose by 81,000 workers to a total of 4,565,000 unemployed workers. The four week moving average of continuing claims dropped by 18,000 workers to a total of 4,548,250.

FOREX: EUR/USD Hourly Chart – The Euro continues to fly high against the US Dollar in forex trading and today hit its highest exchange rate in almost three months. The EUR/USD advanced to a high of 1.3105 in today’s trading, reaching this level for the first time since May 4th when the pair was in the midst of its rapid decline that bottomed on June 7th at the 1.1875 exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair is now on its way this week to gaining for a fifth consecutive week and for the seventh out of the last eight weeks.

Forex Interview with a champ: “Together we can only get better”

By eToroelgreko922, winner of the latest traders championship
shares his trading tips with eToro’s community


Age: 39

Country: Greece

Family status: Married

Occupation: CEO @ financial company

Experience: stockbroker since 1998

Initial deposit in eToro: 10,000 Euros

Trading Mantra: Leave losses behind and look towards future gains.

Preferred currency: euro

Hobbies: trading, my family, music and trading

Q: Why are you trading with eToro?

A: Very good interface. I believe in startups and I heard very good things about eToro which turned out to be true.

Q: How did you hear about eToro?

A: From a trading index in a web site.

Q: What is the most important lesson you learned about trading so far?

A: Follow your chart and your instinct above all.

Q: What is the most important tip you can give to a novice trader?

A: Never take trading personally. When you take a loss you should never take it as a serious personal failure. These things happen and you’ll hit another one winner soon for sure.

Q: Please give me a general description of your trading technique/strategy?

A: I am listening the news, any kind of financial news, watching the charts and getting signals.

Q: Did your Account manager help you to improve your trading?

A: I am on the phone with him everyday at least 3 times a day. Usually I do the opposite he is telling me but he keeps on the edge. I get the most and I value a lot his suggestions. Best A.M.  as far as I know

Q: Please recommend a trade to our readers?

A: EUR/JPN and GBP/JPN are presenting a lot of opportunities.

Q: How long did it take you before you started to make profit?

A: In two days I was on the top.

Q: How much money do you currently trade with?

A: 10,000

Q: What is your number one trading rule?

A: Never try to get what you lost. Look towards the future rather than try to make up for past losses.

Q: What is the part you love the most about eToro?

A: The interface and my account manager (Steve Green).

Q: How much money you WD from eToro so far?

A: About 20,000

Q: How did you learn to trade (alone/books/course/eToro/AM/magazine/over the net)?

A: I was working in several investment banks before I retired back home. Some of them were Barclays Capital, UBS, Bank of America, e.t.c

Your message to the eToro’s community: Keep trading and keeping supporting eToro and each other, together we can only get better.

Q: How much profit you made so far with eToro?

A: Over 10,000.

Forex Interview provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

GBP/CHF Heading for Downward Correction

By Natalie R. – After a long and steep rise of the GBP, the CHF might be seeing some much needed correction versus the pound.

Looking at the daily chart for the pair one can see several indicators pointing to an impending downward correction

1. A breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the chart as well as a beginning of a downward correction still above the band, indicating the trend is likely to continue.
2. A bearish cross is evident on the chart’s Slow Stochastic pointing to an overbought pair. The Pound has strengthened considerably over the past month and it might be time to take profits and re-evaluate the future direction of the pair.
3. The RSI for the pair is floating in the overbought territory, indicating an imminent downward move. It is possible to see this pair getting back to around 1.6400 or even 1.6350.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Gold Bubble Popped?! – July 29, 2010

gold july 29, au, commodities trading, commodities market, online trading

Say what?! Yeah.. You read that correctly. After making a bullish run for the longest time and even marking new historical highs one after another, gold apparently has just lost its upward momentum. In my last post about it back in June 28 (kindly see it here), gold was pretty much in fashion as it just registered a new historical high of just above $1,250.00 per ounce. But as you can see on today’s weekly chart, its bullish run appears to have come to an end. Notice that it has just broken its long term uptrend line which started way back in October of 2008. At present, gold is sitting just above the $1,150.00 support. A break below this could be disastrous as it could fall all the way down to $1,050.00 or even at $1,000.00. In case gold manages to hang on, it could still aim for its previous high just ab0ve $1,250.00. But with the stochastics still far from being oversold, gold, still has some room south to cover.

As I’ve discussed previously, the increase in the demand for gold in the last several months was primarily due from the risk aversion in the financial market. You see, gold’s intrinsic value makes it one of the best assets out there that can protect the investors’ money from inflation in times of market unrest. And as you know, investors at that time was so tentative given the debt crisis in Europe and the weak showing of the US economy.

The situation and the sentiment now, however, are different. The market has since been rallying, buoyed by strong corporate earnings in the US and robust economic data from both the US and Europe. If the market continues to rally then the demand for the safer investments such as gold would likely diminish. The market, for the last months, may have exaggerated the effects of the credit crisis in Europe to the global economy. But as evidenced in the surprise earnings of the banks in Europe and the US, the effect of the crisis on their business was not that much.

So if gold starts its descent, then the mining industry particularly those companies that are producing gold could also take a hit. Of course, a decline in the price of gold could mean a slide in their revenues. Same thing goes for the commodity dollars like the Aussie, Kiwi, and the Swissy. Since these com-dolls have a positive correlation with gold, a decline in the price of the later could drag their prices as well or at least slow their gains.

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Disappointing U.S. Macro Data Hit Markets Yesterday

Source: ForexYard

Plenty of important macro data from the U.S. was published yesterday. Investors were disappointed by the figures and responded mainly by moving away from riskier assets. At first U.S. Durable Goods came negative at -1%, at 12:30GMT later at 18:00GMT Beige book revealed a gloomy outlook for U.S. economy. Although company earnings are still high, yesterday fears about recovery came back to dominate the markets.

Economic News

USD – Traders Shift from EU Debts Concern to U.S. Economic Outlook

U.S. macro data came far less than expected. Investors responded by moving away from riskier assets back to buying the Yen and U.S. Dollar. The EUR/USD was slightly down after U.S Durable Goods was published, The USD/JPY traded lower, currently trading at $87.22 as investors feel safer holding the Yen over the USD. The British Pound continued to rally against the U.S. Dollar, despite the move to safer assets.

U.S. demand for Durable Goods, which is usually a sign for economic strength, came negative at -1.0%. Forecasts which already expected a form of decline from last month were more moderate than the actual figure. Traders were surprised by the final figure and reacted by sending markets lower. Later the Beige Book was released by the Fed during mid U.S. day trading. It provided a mixed economic picture but eventually supported the markets from declining further. The report said that the U.S. economy was growing but there were also signs of a slowdown in some regions over the past two months.

Looking ahead to today, traders should follow the release of the Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT. A worse than expected result might intensify the current trend and strengthen the greenback further.

EUR – EUR’s Recent Rally Losing Steam

EUR’s rally against its major counterparts stumbled yesterday as new economic data raised fears about the strength of global economic recovery, with the common currency ending lower against its major counterparts.

EUR/USD ended slightly lower yesterday, reaching a low of 1.2968; however, it managed to recover some of its loses to currently trade at 1.3010. The pair seemed to trade without a clear trend and moved mostly sideways. The EUR/JPY, however sent more clear signs of a correction building up. The pair’s five days rally ended yesterday after it breached an 11 week high. Signals show that pair should further decline in coming days.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow the British HPI data at 6:00 GMT as well as the German Employment change at 7:55 GMT. Positive data might bring back some market optimism, pushing the Pound and EUR higher against their counterparts.

JPY – Strengthens on Safe Heaven appeal

The JPY strengthened against the U.S. Dollar yesterday as investors expressed their concerns about the U.S. economy by selling the U.S. Dollar and buying the Japanese Yen. The Yen traded higher against most of its major counterparts; however, a strong currency may ultimately weigh on the Japanese economy as it is heavily dependent on exports.

A strong Yen would have bad influence on profits of Japanese companies. Consequently the Japanese government might be forced to weaken their local currency. So far no comments were published regarding Government intervention. As long as the Japanese Bank avoids market intervention the Yen is expected to keep its strengthening momentum.

Looking ahead to today traders should pay attention to the $86.88 support line, crossing down might take the USD/JPY pair even lower. Some analysts estimate that that the Yen could even reach as high as $85 in the coming months.

Crude Oil – High U.S. Inventories Send Crude Oil Price Lower

Crude Oil prices ended lower yesterday after U.S Oil Inventories rose by 7.3M barrels. Lately this figure made little impact over Crude Oil prices but yesterday it came quite high compared with expectations of a 1.4M drop.

Demand for durables goods which also came surprisingly lower added to worries that demand for Oil would decrease in the near future as manufacturing declines. Crude Oil price might decline further in the short term if economic figures continue to deteriorate. Investors are worried about a possible double dip, meaning a renewed recession.

Gold price rebounded slightly during yesterday trading session. During the day it reached as low as $1156.25, but thereafter recovered and is currently trading at $1165 Gold price dropped after inflation worries began to fade and analysts begin to worry about another recession or economic slow down.

Technical News


The pair was relatively unchanged yesterday and as such has formed a 2nd consecutive doji candlestick which reflects the bulls and bears inability to move the price significantly. The RSI (14) has crossed below the overbought line, triggering a sell signal. But traders may want to be patient and wait for the RSI line to break its trend line before going short. A rising trend line can be drawn from the low of the RSI line that begins on June 4th.


The pound was stronger yesterday and has risen versus the dollar for the past 6 consecutive bars. This has pushed most oscillators into oversold territory as the Slow Stochastic is showing a bearish cross and the RSI (14) is floating in the oversold territory. However, before going short, traders may want to wait for a breach of a short term trend line that can begins at the bar on June 22nd.


A bearish flag pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart. The base of the flag pole begins at the high on June 14th and runs to the low for the pair at 86.25. The flag pattern is sloping upward with a previous downward trend. Therefore, a breakout may be expected to the downside in the direction of the long term trend. Traders may want to wait for a confirmation of the breakout at a price of 86.80 and enter short.


For the past 15 days the pair has traded in a defined range between the prices of 1.0650 and 1.0400. In this trading range a double bottom reversal pattern may be forming. A confirmation of the reversal pattern will be a close above the 1.0650 resistance line.

The Wild Card


The drop in the price of gold shows a potential reversal in the trend. The price has closed below the long term upward sloping trend line for the past two days, confirming a significant breach of the trend line and a breach below the support level of $1169. However, yesterday’s trading closed and formed a hanging man candlestick. This may signal an upturn in the price. CFD traders may find a good opportunity to go long on a breach above the $1169 resistance level.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Disappointing Macro Overshadowed Good Corporate Earnings

By Natalie R. – Yesterday’s trading ended flat for the EUR/USD pair but volatility was high. Traders moved from selling the EUR before European session started, to buying the EUR before U.S. trading session started and eventually the pair finished near the day opening rate. The pair ranged $1.2965 to $1.3040.

Any move below 1.2965, would signal a correction while any move above 1.3040 would signal another rally. Other currencies such as the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY are beginning to form correction signals.

It is still early to decide if yesterday was a beginning of a correction or a single day of profit taking. Looking for today, lack of important news events is expected to keep trading calm as analysts’ learn yesterday’s data, but tomorrow more news from the U.S. should put more light on the economy.

Volatility should rise toward next week which is the first week of August and hold plenty of macro data and important news events. Traders should start to plan trades and positions for next week as it is going have a lot of impact on currencies and we are likely to wildness large movements in prices.

Here is a roundup of the day’s main economic indicators:

• 12:30 GMT, U.S. Unemployment Claims – This report measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. If the end result will be lower than the expected 457,000 – the Dollar might rise against the majors.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Forex Market Review: Daily Forex Analysis 2010-07-29

Forex Market Review by

Risk aversion surged yesterday, fueling the Japanese Yen to appreciate against its major currency counterparts. The Dollar tumbled from the highest level in almost two weeks against the Yen as orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly dropped last month and the Federal Reserve reported slowing economic growth in some areas. Global Risk appetite stalled yesterday as Orders for Durable goods in U.S. sank in June – adding to the long chain of disappointing U.S reports. The U.S Census bureau stated that Durable Goods Orders fell by 1.0% on weaker demand for airplanes, electronics, and machinery, steel and other long-lasting manufactured products. Excluding transportation, the Core rate fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in June, after a revised upward reading of 1.6% in May.  The market had expected core durable goods to rise by 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Fed emphasized in its Beige Book reading, that while the economic recovery is moving forwards, it is progressing at a slower pace than it had earlier this year.

Down in New Zealand, the RBNZ raised the key interest rates by 0.25bps, to 3.0% as expected. However, the New Zealand Dollar, nicknamed the Kiwi, fell for a third consecutive day, as the central bank said weakening growth prospects will slow the pace of future interest-rate hikes.
Today’s focus will be the U.S weekly Unemployment Claims. The market predicts a slight drop to 457K claims, down from last’s week 464K, which may help to ease concerns over the recent downward turn in US economic data. However, tomorrow’s U.S GDP report will be the key indicator to watch.  Analysts predict that the U.S economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter as consumer spending fell and the trade deficit expanded. After a strong end to 2009 (growth of 5.6%), the first quarter’s GDP rose by a smaller 2.7%, which fueled speculations of   a double dip recession. Tomorrow, the U.S will release its Advanced GDP for the second quarter is expected to show another smaller increase of 2.5%.


The Euro edged up against the Dollar this morning, erasing the previous day’s losses, just hours ahead of Germany’s unemployment data release. The 16-nation common currency extended its gains against the dollar, rising 0.3% to strike a new daily high of $1.3034. Currently the EUR/USD continues to be on the verge of hitting a new 11-week high, if the pair can breach the $1.3046 mark. At the moment, the pair is trading around 1.3040, 0.31% higher than yesterday’s closing price.

Shortly, Germany will release its unemployment change, which expected to show a drop of another drop of around 18K.


U.K. house prices dropped in July for the first time in five months as stricter lending conditions and increased concerns that the new government cuts will slow economic growth frightened potential home buyers. According to this morning’s report the average cost a home fell 0.5% percent June, while the analysts had expected a smaller drop of 0.2%. Following the release, the Pound was up against the Dollar, with the pair rising 0.26% to hit 1.5639

Forex Market Review & Analysis by

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.