AUD/USD Battles with April Highs

By Fast Brokers – The AUD/USD is continuing its wild, volatile consolidation pattern while exhibiting a slight downward bias.  The SEC’s announcement that it is investigating Goldman’s trading operations has resulted in a broad based pullback in the risk trade, and the Aussie is no exception.  The AUD/USD has now set consecutive lower highs (4/12, 4/14, 4/21. 4/30).  Hence, the AUD/USD doesn’t seem to have the strength to break out into a new uptrend due to fiscal problems in the EU.  However, the AUD/USD continues to rally strong and stay within striking distance of previous April highs since the RBA still has the most aggressive monetary policy stance around the globe.  On the other hand, should fiscal problems in the EU continue and destabilize further then the RBA may be inclined to keep its monetary policy unchanged come May’s meeting.  After all, Stevens recently hinted that the benchmark rate has almost reached a fair value, signaling that the rate hike campaign could have an end in sight.  Australia will reenter the data wire tomorrow by releasing new home sales and private sector credit figures.  Should new home sales cool and private sector credit tighten, this could show that the RBA’s hawkish monetary policy is having its desired impact, an Aussie negative.  On the other hand, of the data points print strong then the Aussie should remain locked into its uptrend.  Attention will then shift to the U.S. with a key data set on the way, highlighted by advance GDP.  That being said, the trading week could end on an active note.

Technically speaking, the Aussie faces technical barriers in the form of intraday, 4/26, 4/21, 4/15 and 4/12 highs.  Additionally, the psychological .93 and .94 levels could serve technical obstacles over the near-term.  As for the downside, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 3/22 lows.

Price: .9303
Resistances: .9311, .9319, .9331, .9340, .9351, .9359
Supports: .9300, .9291, .9283, .9273, .9259, .9251
Psychological: .93, .94, .92, April highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

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