Month: September 2009

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change Data is set to be published at 12:30 GMT, and is expected to be the most important news event when it comes to market volatility. Traders are also advised to follow the G20 Meeting that will commence today, and the U.S. Unemployment Claims data at 12.30 GMT. In the meantime, open your positions in the majors now, as today’s trading gets under way.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Trades Lower Before U.S. Jobs Report

The U.S. Dollar was slightly stronger vs. the EUR on Thursday, as investors squared positions ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report later today. The USD also traded near a week low against the British Pound before a U.S. government report forecast to showed employers eliminated fewer jobs last month, sapping demand for the greenback as a refuge from the global recession. The USD traded at $1.6323 per pound from $1.6275 yesterday, after falling to $1.6413, the lowest level since Aug. 25.

The greenback briefly extended gains against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, after the Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 48.4 in August from 46.4 in July. The U.S. currency finished trading at 92.58 Yen from 92.28 Yen, and is poised for a 4th weekly loss, the longest stretch since December.

Today’s Non-Farm payrolls data is expected to have a strong impact on the U.S currency. Any result could be a surprise, and the Dollar could go either way as a result. In any case, traders are unsure how the market will react to today’s data. A weak report could feed risk aversion, boost Treasuries and actually aid the U.S Dollar. Then again, a better than expected result might be seen as a sign of relative U.S. economic strength, and lift the Dollar. Or it could also encourage risk-taking and aid commodities and higher-yielding currencies at the Dollar’s expense.

EUR – EUR Drops versus the Dollar on ECB President Trichet’s Comments

The EUR gave back early gains against most major counterparts after the European Central Bank kept Interest Rates at a record low of 1%, and stated that the period of contraction has come to an end in the Euro-Zone. The EUR/USD cross slipped to $1.4250, after having slipped from a peak of $1.4346 on Thursday. This was after the European Central Bank President, Jean Claude Trichet made less hawkish statements than many expected.

Meanwhile, the European currency also headed for its first weekly decline versus the Pound since Aug. 7 after ECB’s Trichet warned yesterday of a rather uneven recovery, even as the ECB raised its growth forecasts. The British Pound advanced as economic data showed the U.K. services sector growing more rapidly than had been anticipated last month. The news sent the GBP/USD cross as high as $1.643 during Thursday’s trading session.

Trichet’s remarks that the economic recovery is not strong enough to start withdrawing monetary stimulus measures hurt the single currency too. Still, market players reported good support under $1.4200, which should hold into the today’s job reports data from the U.S.

JPY – The Yen Pulls Back From 7 Week High

The Japanese Yen weakened against 14 of its 16 major counterparts on Thursday on speculation Asian stocks will extend a global equity rally, spurring demand for higher-yielding assets. The JPY retreated from a 7 week high against the U.S Dollar as higher share prices prompted investors to trim holdings of the low-risk Japanese currency.

The Yen’s retreat also occurred due to a rally in Chinese shares prompting investors to trim holdings of the low-risk JPY. Japan’s currency may decline for a second day versus the EUR as futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average expiring in September closed at 10,235 in New York yesterday, higher than 10,230 in Osaka.

Crude Oil – Oil Under Pressure on OPEC Output Expectations

Crude Oil ended Thursday’s volatile trading without any gains as investors reacted to a weekly jobless report. Prices settled at $68.12 a barrel, as disappointing news from the labor market outweighed economic optimism from data showing that the U.S. service sector and retail sales improved. Traders are also eyeing news that big Oil producers are increasing output. OPEC is expected to leave output targets unchanged when it next meets on September 9th in Vienna.

U.S. Crude prices have been range bound between $65 to $75 a barrel since the start of August, fluctuating on the latest clues about the speed of an impending economic recovery. However, there’s not a whole lot of momentum in the market in either direction. The trend for Crude Oil, which has been down, is still in force this week. Oil prices are not likely to break out of the confines of the current range in the short term, analysts say.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has been range trading between the 1.4190 and the 1.4380 levels in the past several days. The daily chart seems to be showing misleading data. However, the 4-hour chart offers a more accurate picture. The Stochastic slow of the 4-hour chart shows the pair sitting in the oversold territory, signaling that an upward correction in the coming hours is imminent. Entering the pair at an early stage seems to be a wise choice today.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD cross has experienced a bullish trend for the past 2 days. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end today. The RSI of the 4-hour chart shows the pair floating in the overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction will happen anytime soon. This view is also supported by the daily chart’s MACD. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

USD/JPY

The cross rose yesterday, despite declining significantly lower this trading week. It seems that the chart’s oscillators are showing misleading data. On one hand, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow and the 4-hour chart’s MACD supports a bullish trend for today. On the other hand, the Stochastic Slow of the daily chart supports a bearish move for today. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer seems to be the right choice for now.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF cross made a slight bearish correction yesterday, despite falling significantly on Wednesday. The MACD of the hourly chart indicates that the pair will go higher today. However, the MACD of the weekly chart and Stochastic Slow of the 4-hour chart seems to be more accurate, supporting a downward trend for today. Going short with tight stops could bring big profits today.

The Wild Card – Gold

This popular commodity has recorded a 3 day winning streak, as it stands at the $990 level. Analysts expect Gold to go higher for yet another day. They may be right, as gold approaches a $1000. The Stochastic Slow of the hourly charts supports the upward trend for today. Going long with tight stops may bring high returns for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY has finally formed a bottom, narrowly avoiding a retest of July lows in the process.  The Dollar is appreciating lightly across the board today after Unemployment Claims missed expectations and the ISM Services PMI printed in line.  Meanwhile, crude and the S&P are returning earlier gains as gold continues to strengthen above $980/oz.  The combination of strength in gold and the Dollar tells us that investors are half-heartedly choosing to divest from riskier assets and into safer venues.  However, USD/JPY investors shouldn’t get their hopes up since today’s bottom comes on light volume and a strong downward bias remains.  The currency pair has experienced an intense selloff, so a little bottom fishing is not surprising.

The USD/JPY remains well below our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines while recent activity has clearly been sell-side heavy.  The question becomes how far the USD/JPY’s bounce will go, and whether today’s bottom proves to be lasting or only temporary.  In the meantime, bulls will fight to get the USD/JPY back above its 1st tier uptrend line and into respectability. As for the downside, it will be key for the USD/JPY to remain above July lows.  If not, all bets are off and we may witness a retest of 90.  Our 1st tier uptrend line is approaching an inflection point with our 2nd tier downtrend line.  We notice similar occurrences in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, indicating further volatility could be in the cards.  Japan will release Capital Spending data late Thursday.  A better than expected number could add some immediate-term downward pressure n the USD/JPY.  On the other hand, worse than expected Capital Spending data could help the USD/JPY climb back above our 1st tier uptrend line.

Present Price: 92.46

Resistances: 92.58, 92.73, 92.97, 93.17, 93.33

Supports:  92.36, 92.22, 92.08, 91.96, 91.72

Psychological: 90, 95

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable added onto recent strength by propelling off of our 1st tier uptrend line after Britain’s Services PMI printed ahead of analyst expectations.  A piece of positive data was surely welcomed by the Pound bulls considering all of the weak numbers as of late.  The data was particularly reassuring since services comprise a large portion of Britain’s GDP, more so than manufacturing.  The Pound’s relative strength is highlighted by the sharp contraction in the EUR/GBP.  The EUR/GBP’s run has come to an abrupt halt and investors continue to snap up an oversold Pound.  Britain’s Halifax HPI will be printing tomorrow along with key U.S. unemployment data and the kickoff of the G20 Summit.  While we expect a strong HPI number from Britain, the U.S. unemployment data may disappoint.  However, this week’s discouraging data from the U.S. may soften the blow should the headline Unemployment Rate come in higher than expected.

As we explained in our EUR/USD analysis, the G20 Summit could prove to be the wildcard jolting the FX markets from their consolidative pattern.  Such an effect would require China bringing the topic of a new monetary standard back to the forefront.  With Chinese equity markets shaking and FX markets in a dazed state, now could be an opportune time for China to bring the topic of conversation to a larger stage.  Such an event would surely rattle the FX markets.  The GBP/USD and EUR/USD both have multiple inflection points approaching, indicating volatility could return soon.  However, this is purely speculative conversation and we are simply thinking aloud.  Odds are the G20 nations will exit the conference with a unified message in the hopes of maintaining global economic stability.

Technically speaking, the Cable is fortunate to have found support in our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines.  If not, we would have surely witnessed a retest of the highly psychological 1.60 level.  Not to mention our 1st tier trend line is sitting in the depths below.  While the GBP/USD has 1.60, the EUR/USD has 1.40.  Therefore, even though there may be some more space to the downside, each major Dollar cross has a strong psychological level waiting in the wings.  On the other hand, the GBP/USD has quite a ways to go to re-establish its upward momentum.  The GBP/USD has to deal with our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines along with the highly psychological 1.65 level.  Therefore, there remains a consolidative with a slight downward bias.

Present Price: 1.6344

Resistances: 1.6360, 1.6376, 1.6408, 1.6443, 1.6469, 1.6520

Supports: 1.6324, 1.6300, 1.6267, 1.6239, 1.6212

Psychological: 1.65, 1.60

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD posted a solid recovery yesterday, exhibiting more strength than we expected considering Thursday’s economic data was nothing to cheer about.  Furthermore, the S&P futures hung beneath 1000, providing little motive to devalue the Dollar.  Investors may have been reacting to the breakout in gold since the Dollar has been negatively correlated with the Greenback.  Gold surged to $980/oz and was the talk of the town.  Therefore, investors may have taken gold’s ascent as a hint that the Dollar should head lower.  On the other hand, investors may have been comfortable keeping the EUR/USD afloat since the S&P’s recent contraction was mostly influenced by psychological factors.  Either way, the FX markets have been difficult to track lately with the major Dollar crosses sending mixed signals.  This tells us the Dollar may be approaching a turning point as investors grow anxious and jockey for position.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD has returned earlier gains and is trading smack in the middle of our trend lines after U.S. weekly Unemployment Claims came in slightly above analyst expectations.  America’s much anticipated ISM Services PMI data printed in line with estimates, only making the present picture muddier.   We have yet to receive the market moving headlines we were anticipating.  The ECB kept its benchmark rate at 1% while Trichet remained cautiously optimistic as anticipated.  EU data has impressed on all fronts lately, including this week’s Flash CPI.  Therefore, the ECB had little reason to act other than to deliver a monetary shock.  Due to the Euro’s resounding positive data, we anticipate the EUR/GBP could find bottom sometime soon as investors continue to snap up an oversold Pound.  It’s the EU’s turn to take a break from economic data next week, so British data will need to present a strong case to gain back its relative strength.  EU data is finished for the week, so the focus will turn to the G20 meetings and key employment data from the U.S. tomorrow.

Despite present indecisiveness in the EUR/USD, all three tiers of our trend lines are coming together beautifully with multiple inflection points on the horizon.  The behavior of our trend lines indicates a turning point may finally be approaching.  We’ve witnessed counterbalancing buy-side and sell-side volume with the currency pair experiencing lower highs and higher lows (9/01 excluded).  Hence, the next near-term leg is hanging in the balance, though there remains a certain downward tendency in the currency pair due to recent weakness in the S&P.  As the summer winds down, we anticipate volume and volatility could return once again.  The G20 meetings have been flying in under the radar and start up tomorrow.  A potential market mover tomorrow could be a surprise in U.S. unemployment data.  However, we believe the G20 meetings could be the wild card.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see the topic of a new monetary standard return in a big way since volatility in the FX markets has abated.  China may take the G20 meeting as an opportunity to breach the topic on a larger stage.  Such a move could provide the jolt of volatility the EUR/USD’s inflection points are indicating.  On the other hand, the EUR/USD may just opt to continue its erratic consolidation.

Technically speaking, our 3rd tier uptrend and downtrend lines play the largest trend-setting role on our chart.  If our 3rd tier downtrend line fails, we anticipate a retest of August highs.  On the flipside, a retracement below our 3rd tier uptrend line could result in a retest of August lows.  Meanwhile, the 1.40 and 1.45 psychological patiently wait in opposite directions.  Investors should keep a close eye on the S&P futures.   If the S&P futures should continue their downward momentum and head below technical supports the EUR/USD would likely exercise its positive correlation with U.S. equities.

Present Price: 1.4287

Resistances: 1.4300, 1.4309, 1.4327, 1.4347, 1.4366

Supports: 1.4276, 1.4261, 1.4251, 1.4224, 1.4208

Psychological: 1.40, 1.45

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Susan C. Walker

Editor’s Note: The following article discusses Robert Prechter’s view of investment vehicles and government-regulated plans. For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

It’s a blessing and a curse. IRAs, 401(k)s, thrift plans — some of the best ways to save money for retirement (the blessing) can tie your hands when you invest that money (the curse). Most savers didn’t recognize the cursed side as the markets generally trended up over the years, increasing their nest eggs’ earnings. But after a year like 2008, savers everywhere absorbed the shock that they couldn’t protect their retirement savings from a bear market. Now, the real moment of truth arrives: EWI forecasts that the market will again turn bearish. How can you protect what you’ve got when your plan doesn’t have any options for short-side investing? Bob Prechter addresses that question in his most recent Theorist.

* * * * *

Excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist, by Robert Prechter, published August 5, 2009

Investment Vehicles and Government-Regulated Plans

We receive many emails from subscribers asking specific questions about investing [such as,] “Is it O.K. to invest in such-and-such short fund if that is my only short-side option?” Again, given the market-tracking mechanics of such funds, the only answer we can give in good conscience is “no.” … But every question prompts others. Why is this our friend’s “only option”? The funds mentioned are the only ones in which a “long” is really a short, so we would guess that our friend has some sort of government-regulated retirement plan that allows only “long-side” purchases.

Others with retirement plans similarly complain that their plans do not include the option of owning Treasury-only paper and ask if such-and-such other money fund is safe enough to buy. In our view, most money funds assuredly do not offer the level of safety that we advocate. Moreover, such plans are often administered by brokers, and brokers will be in chaos during wave 3 down.

These questions reveal just some of the problems an investor encounters when playing the government’s games. Conquer the Crash (see Ch. 23) recommended taking every opportunity to cash out of IRAs, Keoughs, company-provided plans, etc., all of which are government regulated, thereby freeing up your money so that you would have full say over its use.

By signing up for one of the government’s “deals,” a potential short seller now has no good choices and is therefore effectively barred from selling short. A prudent investor who wants to own the safest debt may likewise be barred from buying T-bills if he participates in a government-regulated, company retirement plan. Should he buy the only money fund available and cross his fingers? Government rules often force people into bad decisions. In this case, the “good deal” the government engineered for your retirement is a trap that prohibits you—at the most important time in modern history—from buying the safest debt instruments and from making money in a bear market….

Irony attends both financial markets and government plans. Put them together—as we have witnessed throughout the financial crisis so far—and you get Kafka.

For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page July issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. Unemployment Claims is the primary publication today that is set to determine the level of the USD when it is released at 12:30 GMT. The other main releases that are set to dominate forex trading, especially for currencies such as the Dollar and EUR is the publication of the Services PMI for Britain at 08:30 GMT, the EUR Minimum Bid Rate at 11:45 from the Euro-Zone, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. at 14:00 GMT. What are you waiting for traders! Open your positions in the USD, EUR, GBP, and AUD now.

Economic News

USD – USD Setback Caused by Market Uncertainty

The US Dollar dropped slightly yesterday as equity markets began to slow the pace of their recovery. Erasing part of Tuesday’s gains, the EUR/USD retraced itself back towards 1.4300 at the opening of US markets as stocks slowly recovered, and the EUR followed suit against the greenback. Similar behavior was experienced against the British Pound as well, with a price reaching towards 1.6300 as of yesterday’s late trading hours.

Economic recovery does not appear to be improving at the speed many investors were hoping for, and currencies appear to be tracing the movement of stocks as a result. While recovery floats between positive and negative economic data, risk appetite may be suffering as a result; hence the surge in the value of the JPY. One thing is certain, the economic news expected for today and tomorrow will no doubt generate an intense level of trading volume and volatility as investors try to price in the new growth forecasts for Europe and unemployment levels for the United States.

For today, traders need to be watching 3 currencies: the AUD, EUR, and USD. Australia released its trade balance figures this morning, which showed a deeper contraction than was expected, putting downward pressure on the Aussie. The European Central Bank will release its decision on short-term interest rates, which always creates volatility. Also, the US is going to give a glimpse into tomorrow’s NFP report with today’s Unemployment Claims figures. These will be the more exciting news days for trading that an investor can get. Make sure you’re in the market today!

EUR – Euro-Zone Interest Rate Decision Today at 11:45 GMT

While rallying against the USD yesterday, the EUR faced a moderate setback versus the British Pound and Yen. Climbing towards 1.4300 against the USD, the EUR dropped to as low as 0.8750 versus the Pound Sterling and 131.30 compared to the Yen.

The price behavior of the EUR these past few days has been to mimic the movement of stocks, since most economic data has failed to provide a clear signal about market direction. Since global stocks are inching their way towards positive growth, the EUR also inched its way up against its primary rival. However, the lack of optimism meant that the safe-haven JPY continued to gain momentum against all of its rivals.

For today, EUR traders have an important economic event to be on the lookout for. The European Central Bank (ECB) is going to announce its decision regarding its Minimum Bid Rate (short-term interest rates for the region), and could also potentially give hints about its economic growth forecasts for the next 6 months. Any indication of a rate increase in the next half-year could spell heavy optimism for the EUR and traders would be foolish to miss out on this event.

JPY – Yen Continues to Gain from Risk Aversion

Sitting on top of a mountain of bullish growth, the Japanese Yen has been on the receiving end of much optimism lately, or should we say, a lack of optimism. The uncertainty in the market lately has pushed many investors away from even the modestly risky currencies and into the safety of the Yen, which helps explain its recent strength.

Whether or not this momentum can carry itself into the near future, however, may be decided by the news events today and tomorrow from Europe and the United States. The ECB will announce its rate decisions today, as well as any updates about economic outlook. This decision always carries a strong impact and may see the EUR/JPY head into an upward correction directly after its release if the ECB brings good news. American employment data today and tomorrow may also help reverse the recent trend of the USD/JPY. Traders beware, today is going to be a bumpy ride!

Crude Oil – Commodities Spike, but Crude Oil Remains Flat

Unlike yesterday’s Gold prices, Crude Oil failed to see any bullish growth following the opening of the US markets at 12:30 GMT. Once the New York markets opened, the USD faced a modest downturn against the EUR while stocks gained slightly. As a result, the price of precious metals, such as Gold and Silver, spiked drastically while the price for a barrel of Crude Oil remained relatively flat at $68.

With so much news affecting the stock market and forex, many traders tend to overlook the benefits of commodity trading. Crude Oil tends to be an investment with a lot of potential as it moves in large wave trends with fewer volatile spikes, making it one of the safer investments for a portfolio looking for a hedge against inflation, or away from the volatility of many currencies. Today’s and tomorrow’s news releases about European interest rates and American employment data are expected to create a heavy level of volume and volatility, meaning most commodities will experience something similar. Don’t miss out on these opportunities if you’re an active forex trader.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The cross has been very volatile lately, and recorded much bullishness yesterday. Much of today’s oscillators seem to be misleading. However, both the 4-hour and weekly charts offer a more accurate picture. The 4-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow shows that the pair is floating in the overbought territory, and a downward correction is imminent. The MACD also supports the view that the pair is overbought. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

GBP/USD

The popularly traded pair experienced much bullishness yesterday, despite recording a very bearish trading day on Tuesday. The Stochastic Slow of the weekly chart shows the pair in the overbought territory, and that a bearish correction could happen anytime soon. The RSI of the hourly chart indicates that there is likelihood for much bearishness in the pair today. Going short on the pair seems like a popular strategy for traders today.

USD/JPY

As a whole, the USD/JPY cross went through much bearishness in the past 2 weeks. This trend looks set to reverse according to the daily and 4-hour hour charts. The Stochastic Slow of the daily chart shows the pair sitting in the oversold territory, signaling that the next move will be in an upward direction. This view is also supported by the MACD of the 4-hour chart. Going long with tight stops could pay off today.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF cross has been range trading between the 1.0540 and the 1.0705 levels. On the one hand, the MACD of the weekly chart signals that the pair is set for a downward trend for today. On the other hand, both the Stochastic Slow of the 4-hour chart and the MACD of the hourly chart supports an upward trend for today. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer seems to be a wise choice for today.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Despite much bearishness for the black gold this week, the popular commodity went through some flat trading yesterday. Crude currently stands at the $68.10 level. Both the RSI and the Stochastic Slow of the daily chart indicates that there will be much bullish behavior for Crude today. Going long with tight stops may bring big profits for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By CountingPips.com

U.S. employment data was released today in the form of the ADP National Employment Report and showed that U.S. private employment declined by more than expected in August. The nonfarm private employment decreased by 298,000 workers in August following the revised July decline of 360,000 jobs. July’s data was revised downwards from the original release of 371,000 jobs lost. August’s data was worse than the decline of

250,000 jobs that market forecasts were expecting but August also marked the smallest monthly job decline since September 2008.

The ADP report commented on the job losses saying, “Employment losses are clearly diminishing. Despite recent indications that overall economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is still likely to decline for at least several more months, albeit at a diminishing rate.”

The goods-providing sector showed the largest decline for the month with a loss of 152,000 jobs while the service-producing sector was not far behind with a decline of 146,000 jobs. The manufacturing sector had a loss of 74,000 jobs while construction jobs fell for the 31st straight month with a decline of 73,000 workers. All size of businesses continued to cut jobs in August as large businesses lost 60,000 jobs, medium sized businesses shed 116,000 jobs and small businesses dropped 122,000 jobs.

The market-moving US Nonfarm Payrolls report for August is to be released Friday at 12:30 pm GMT with market forecasts predicting an approximate decline of 225,000 jobs after July’s 247,000 decrease.

US Dollar is mixed in Forex Trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been mixed today against the other major currencies in the spot forex market trading following yesterday’s USD strength.  The dollar has been weaker versus the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc while trading higher versus the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar according to currency data from Oanda at 1:54pm EDT.

AUD/USD Chart – The Australian Dollar rising today versus the US Dollar in forex trading after declining sharply in yesterday’s trading. The AUD/USD trades right around the 100-hour (red) and 200-hour (blue) simple moving averages.

By Adam Hewison – Today we are going to be examining the NASDAQ Index. This market, which made its peak in 2000 at the height of the dot com bubble, remains in a secular bear market.

After making a low in March of 2001, this market has had multiyear recovery which has rallied it very close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. After a nearly 50% recovery, this market now appears to be faltering.

The months of September and October are now with us and both of these months tend to be treacherous for the equity markets. We would not be surprised to see more of a two-way trading market before it eventually falls on its own weight and resumes a downward path. This is what we expect to happen, however, we are going to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to give us the perfect timing for that event.

In today’s video I will show you graphically what I expect to happen to the NASDAQ Index.

See the New Video Here…

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY has been following the S&P futures lower in reaction to investor uncertainty surrounding the present valuation of U.S. equities.  The Yen was already experiencing a relative strength earlier this week due to strong Japanese data and the DPJ’s victory.  Therefore, the S&P’s pullback below 1000 only gave investors more incentive to test the USD/JPY’s patience after drifting beneath our 1st tier uptrend line.  The failure of our 1st tier uptrend line indicated a retest of July lows, which has nearly materialized.  However, the USD/JPY may opt to consolidate a little today with July highs within reach and a hefty downturn already underway.  Additionally, the S&P futures are back in their 1000 trading zone, which obviously has a strong psychological pull.  We also notice the GBP/USD and EUR/USD are sliding near their own psychological 1.60 and 1.45 levels, respectively.  However, any immediate-term stability may not last long considering investors will receive a large wave of economic news tomorrow.

The U.S. and Britain will release important economic data points tomorrow along with an ECB monetary policy decision.  Hence, we expect volatility to pick up tomorrow and throughout the remainder of the trading week.  The S&P futures and other Dollar crosses are hovering around their key psychological cushions.  Therefore, Thursday’s data set could prove to be either a tipping point or stabilizing factor in the FX markets.  Considering we have witnessed heightened sell-side activity in both crude and the S&P futures, present momentum appears to be in favor of a larger leg down.  Meanwhile, if the USD/JPY can’t hold July lows the currency pair could be in for an exacerbated selloff toward the 91 area.  As for the topside, the USD/JPY has countless barriers to overcome, beginning with our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines.

Present Price: 92.46

Resistances: 92.58, 92.73, 92.97, 93.17, 93.33

Supports:  92.36, 92.22, 92.08, 91.96, 91.72

Psychological: 90, 95

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable pulled back on heightened volume yesterday only bounce off of our 2nd tier uptrend line this morning.  The Pound is experiencing relative strength despite weaker than expected Manufacturing and Construction PMI data along with a disappointing Net Lending to Individuals number.  The past two sessions of economic data reveals why the BOE has been more aggressive with its monetary policy.  One would anticipate relative weakness in the Pound in reaction to these data points.  However, the EUR/GBP has experienced a sharp contraction while the Cable balances.  Considering the pace of the EUR/GBP’s recent surge, we believe the Pound may have just been oversold and we are witnessing a natural bounce.  Therefore, today’s bottom in the Cable may have little staying power should the S&P futures continue their downturn as indicated.  The S&P futures were flooded by heightened sell-side action yesterday and were accompanied by a hefty pullback in crude.  The downside interest around the market indicates the present downturn could have legs.  The one positive correlative sign for the Cable is today’s pop in gold.  However, we wouldn’t read too far into gold’s strength right now.

Britain will keep the data train rolling after the last two weeks of relative silence.  Britain will release its Halifax HPI and Services PMI data tomorrow.  While we expect the Halifax HPI to satisfy investors considering the recent outperformance of British housing data, the Services PMI number will be the headline to watch.  The Services PMI data should have a large impact on the GBP/USD since services make up such a large portion of Britain’s GDP.  Meanwhile, we will receive more key data from the U.S. along with and ECB monetary decision.  Therefore, we expect the level of volatility to remain high throughout the rest of the week.  Meanwhile, if the S&P futures should extend their leg down we expect the Cable to follow suit.

Technically speaking, the Cable is fortunate to have found support in our 2nd tier uptrend line.  If not, we would have surely witnessed a retest of the highly psychological 1.60 level.  Not to mention our 1st tier trend line is sitting in the depths below.  While the GBP/USD has 1.60, the EUR/USD has 1.40.  Therefore, even though there may be some more space to the downside, each major Dollar cross has a strong psychological level waiting in the wings.  On the other hand, the GBP/USD has quite a ways to go to re-establish its upward momentum.  The GBP/USD has to deal with all three of our downtrend lines along with Monday’s highs and the highly psychological 1.65 level.  However, the Cable may choose to consolidate today ahead of tomorrow’s busy session.

Present Price: 1.6222

Resistances: 1.6251, 1.6268, 1.6305, 1.6335, 1.6360

Supports: 1.6212, 1.6178, 1.6146, 1.6119, 1.6065

Psychological: 1.60, 1.65

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.