Month: July 2009

By Fast Brokers – The Cable finally broke below the bottom-end of the mid-June trading range we were eyeing before, represented by our previous 1.6212 support.  There are whispers floating around Monday in regards to the reason behind the Cable’s pullback, but we don’t see any concrete evidence.  We believe investors are setting a tone for the week ahead, highlighted by the beginning of the 2nd quarter earnings season and the G8 meetings.  The upcoming earnings season will be a determining factor in settling the battle between the bulls and the bears.  The bulls have suffered a large setback today, though we’ve yet to see a confirmation in high volume to the downside.  The GBP/USD is balancing along our new 2nd tier uptrend line as it approaches an inflection point with our 1st tier downtrend line.  Our 3rd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines are also colliding today, meaning volatility could rise over the next few trading sessions.

The FX market seems to be waking from its daze, and it appears investors may be ready commit to a direction.  Crude futures are posting large losses as they freefall below $65/bbl while the S&P futures trade at June lows.  Unfortunately for the bulls, the downtrend is picking up momentum, and we may be a confirmation away from settling on a near-term downtrend outlook.  Investors are indicating they expect economic struggles in the near-future with recent economic data coming in mixed.  Britain’s surprisingly negative GDP and current account data last week shook the bulls from their comfort zone.  Therefore, investors will be paying close attention to tomorrow’s Halifax HPI and manufacturing production data points.  Since Britain’s manufacturing PMI came in shallow last week, we expect a negative manufacturing production number.  If both British data releases are negative tomorrow, this could apply considerable immediate-term downward pressure on the Cable.  More disappointing economic data releases would stoke the concern that we may have witnessed a large head-fake in global economic performance in the first half of the year.

With investors and analysts focused on the beginning of the earnings season and the G8 meeting, the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday has fallen to the background.  However, volatility in the Pound could pick up as the BoE meeting draws nearer.  Investors will be curious to see how the BoE handles its current quantitative easing program, and whether the central bank increase its injection of liquidity.  As for the immediate-term, if the Cable can’t hold our 2nd tier trend line, we will likely see a retest of the psychological 1.60 area.
Present Price: 1.6132

Resistances: 1.6133, 1.6152, 1.6183, 1.6212, 1.6245, 1.6278

Supports: 1.6082, 1.6052, 1.6018, 1.5978, 1.5924, 1.5887

Psychological: 1.60

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is starting off the week on a negative note as investors seemingly price in a troublesome earnings season.  We don’t have any news moving the markets other than the EU’s disappointing Sentix investor confidence number.  The Cable is faring worse than the EUR/USD, and is also moving on little to no news.  Therefore, we conclude investors are giving into the downside as they lose some confidence in regards to the sustainability of the global economic recovery.  Crude and the S&P futures are also logging substantial losses Monday, reflecting a lack of confidence in the 2nd quarter earnings season.  As a result, the tug of war may be swinging in favor of the bears.  However, before investors jump to conclusions, we will have to see how the EUR/USD interacts with our new 2nd tier uptrend line.  If this trend line doesn’t hold, we could witness a contraction towards key June lows and our new 1st tier uptrend line.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are playing with fire again as they break from their own June lows.  We expect the EUR/USD to experience a tight positive correlation with U.S. equities this week since investors will receive a relatively light load economic data from both the EU and U.S.  The focus will be on the U.S. earnings season which kicks off Wednesday with Alcoa.  The 2nd quarter performance of U.S. corporations and their guidance for the 3rd quarter should be critical for the near-term direction of U.S. equities.  Investors will be paying close attention to the corporate outlook to see whether officers believe the economic recovery has legs.  Hence, the next few trading sessions could end up being an important turning point concerning trend for the U.S. Dollar.

Today’s development in the EUR/USD is certainly disconcerting, and investors should monitor whether volume picks up to the downside.  Bulls appear to be giving in after weeks of battle, and it will be interesting to see where the new bottom forms.  A near-term retest of our 1.3826 support seems likely, and if the bottom-end of our new support structure doesn’t hold, the EUR/USD may enter a more prolonged downturn.  On the other hand, the bulls have an opportunity to salvage the uptrend at our 2nd tier uptrend line, though the near-term momentum clearly lies in favor of the bears.

Present Price: 1.3895

Resistances: 1.3923, 1.3942, 1.3964, 1.3985, 1.4018

Supports: 1.3889, 1.3865, 1.3848, 1.3826, 1.3802

Psychological: 1.40

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Source: ForexYard

At the beginning of this week, the forex market appears flatter than usual. Most currencies have leveled off and there appears to be quite a few consolidation trends on the technical charts. No doubt this pressure is building up towards this week’s G8 meeting in which the world’s financial leaders will discuss economic recovery plans. The participants typically reveal the summit’s main talking points to reporters throughout the various meetings which start this Wednesday in L’Aquila, Italy, and the impacts vary depending on the statements.

Economic News

USD – USD Loses Momentum Ahead of G8 Meeting

The U.S Dollar dipped against the EUR on Friday, reversing some of its sharp gains the previous session following weak U.S. jobs data. On Thursday, data showed the U.S. economy lost a much greater than expected 467,000 jobs in June, pointing to a long, slow economic recovery and causing market sentiment to sour.

Gains in the greenback were also tempered after Russia and India said the global economy is too dependent on the U.S. currency and called for revisions in how $6.5 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves are managed. The impact has been mixed, but the market still appears dollar-positive.

Trading has been extremely thin, due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with most major currency pairs staying within very tight ranges. This week, investors will likely focus on the Group of Eight (G8) meeting on July 8-10 for any further debate on currency diversification plans. This may cause the U.S Dollar to come under further weakness this week.

EUR – EUR Recovers Modestly after Thursday’s Sharp Fall

The EUR edged higher against the Dollar on Friday, correcting after sharp falls during the late hours of the previous session in the wake of bleak U.S. jobs numbers which dampened hopes for a global economic recovery. Trade was quiet, however, with U.S. markets closed for a public holiday.

The EUR reacted little to the weaker than forecasted Euro-Zone retail sales data and a slight upward revision to the purchasing managers’ survey for services in the region. Despite the EUR recovery, the common currency stayed well below a 1-month high above $1.4200 hit earlier in the week, with some analysts saying any gains are likely to be limited due to concerns about the sustainability of any economic improvement.

The European currency has declined for a 3rd day versus the Yen, the longest stretch in 7 weeks. The EUR fell after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the world is too reliant on the Euro-Zone currency, damping the appeal of European assets. Also, Germany’s IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG said it lost 580 million EUR ($810 million) in the fiscal year ending March 31st as the value of its investments fell. The news is a reminder there are still financial problems in Europe that imply the region may not be so safe, and that may be negative for the EUR, analysts have said.

JPY – Yen Strengthens vs. EUR, Most in 7 Weeks

The Japanese Yen strengthened against the EUR and the Dollar on concern credit market losses will keep increasing in Europe and the U.S., spurring demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency. The Yen strengthened to 133.46 EUR from 134.26 last week, after rising to 133.30, the highest level since June 25th. The currency also rose to 95.39 per Dollar from 96.04. The JPY gained versus all of the 16 most-active currencies as Asian stocks declined, prompting investors to cut holdings of higher-yielding assets.

However, the JPY’s gains may be curbed after North Korea test fired its short-range missiles on July 4th, spurring condemnations from the U.S., South Korea and Japan. Analyst said that as long as North Korea is launching short-range missiles that can’t reach the territory of Japan, this geopolitical news which often weighs on the Yen, will not affect the price action. Traders said that the key for the financial market is positioning ahead of the G8 summit. The U.S Dollar may come under further weakness this week, and this could support the Yen a little bit higher as well.

Crude Oil – Oil Falls on Firmer U.S Dollar

Crude Oil prices fell as the U.S Dollar climbed against the EUR, limiting investor appetite for assets to hedge against inflation. A rising Dollar usually reduces the attraction of raw materials such as oil. Crude Oil fell to the lowest in 5 weeks, to $64.93 a barrel on a stronger USD and speculation U.S. fuel inventories will increase as the recession curbs demand in the world’s biggest energy-consuming country.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said prices needed to be around $75 to spur investment and it has lowered its output targets by 4.2 million barrels per day since last September to try to support the market. The Oil minister of Kuwait, the 6th biggest producer of the OPEC producers, said yesterday that he wants to see oil prices stay above $60 a barrel and will watch the market closely before deciding on its output at OPEC’s meeting in September.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The price of this pair currently floats in the over-sold territory on the RSI of the 4-hour chart, signaling upward pressure. The recent bullish cross on the hourly MACD, and the impending bullish cross on the 4-hour MACD, suggests that an upward move is impending. Going long might be a wise choice today.

GBP/USD

An imminent bullish cross is forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, signaling an upcoming appreciation for the price of this pair. With the price hovering near the over-sold border on the RSI of the hourly and 4-hour chart, going long with tight stops might not be a bad idea throughout the day.

USD/JPY

The strong downward movement of this pair has pushed the price into the over-sold territory on the RSI of the hourly and 4-hour charts, signaling upward pressure. A fresh bullish cross on the hourly Slow Stochastic supports the notion of an upward correction. Going long appears to be the preferable strategy today.

USD/CHF

This pair’s price currently floats in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI, signaling downward pressure. The fresh bearish cross on the hourly MACD supports the notion of a downward movement. Going short with tight stops may be preferable.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

The sustained downward movement of this commodity has resulted in most indicators showing upward pressure. The RSI on the hourly and 4-hour charts show the price of oil floating in the over-sold territory, while the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic shows a fresh bullish cross. The downward movement of this commodity may not yet be finished, but will likely experience an upward correction throughout most of the day. Going long for the correction, then short for the downward trend appears to be a wise choice for forex traders throughout the day.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The Dollar soared yesterday against most of its currency pairs, as its global reserve currency status returned to the forefront. This was due to weak U.S. unemployment figures, as Unemployment in the U.S. rose far higher than analysts had forecast. This spurred demand for safe-haven currencies, such as the USD and JPY. As a result of the strong USD, Crude Oil prices also tumbled. Today, investors should continue trading the USD, EUR, JPY, and Gold, as large profits will be made on market volatility.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Gains on U.S. Unemployment Data

The U.S Dollar gained about 1% versus the EUR and Canadian and New Zealand currencies Thursday after the U.S. government reported more job losses than expected, renewing concerns about the economy and enhancing the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.5%, the government said in the report. The Dollar also benefited from a Chinese Foreign Ministry official’s comments, which dampened speculation about diversification of currency reserves.

It is important to take into account that yesterday’s data raised the risk aversion of investors, which also helped push the Yen higher vs. the USD. The Dollar finished trading at 95.95 Yen, from 96.60 Yen on Thursday. However, this week, the Dollar has advanced over 0.5% against the Yen.

The greenback faces some risks though. Analysts said that the weak U.S jobs report reinforced a trend already in place in the forex market prior to the release that the Dollar was oversold. Traders are still favoring foreign currencies over the U.S Dollar, and the sentiment remains to sell the USD in the short-medium term. With a light U.S. economic calendar today, currency investors may focus instead on the USD’s detriment, such as U.S. fiscal deficit and inflation.

EUR – EUR Tumbles on Interest Rate Decision

The common European currency weakened against the U.S Dollar and Yen yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1% as expected. The ECB also stuck with the amount of covered bond purchases in its plan. The EUR declined amid speculation that ECB policy makers will say today that they don’t see a need for additional measures to revive the Euro-Zone economy.

Analysts said that demand for the EUR fell after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet stated that Euro-Zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year, and recovery may not start until the middle of 2010. The EUR traded at $1.3980, from $1.4115 yesterday. Against the Yen, the EUR declined to 134.15 Yen, from 136.53 Yen. The Europe’s 16-nation currency may drop to the lowest level in more than 2 months against the Dollar in the coming week, as risk aversion increased after a report showed that U.S. employers cut more jobs than forecast in June.

JPY – Yen Benefits from Safe-haven Status

The Japanese Yen advanced against all 16 major currencies on Thursday after a U.S. government report showed employers cut more jobs last month than economists forecast. This prompted investors to sell higher- yielding assets. The Yen rose for a second day against the EUR as Asian stocks fell on concern that the global recession will be prolonged, spurring demand for the safe-haven JPY.

The Yen advanced to 134.21 per EUR from 136.33 yesterday in New York. Against the Dollar the Japanese Yen rose to 95.95 Yen from 96.60 Yen. The Japanese currency typically strengthens in times of financial turmoil, as Japan’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive due to the nation not having to rely on overseas lenders. Additionally, the Dollar is bought as it is the world’s main reserve currency.

Crude Oil – Crude Hits 1 Month Low on Rising U.S. Unemployment

Crude Oil prices tumbled about 4% Thursday, reaching its lowest level in a month. Crude also recorded its 3rd weekly loss in a row, as a disappointing jobs report rekindled concerns over U.S economic recovery. Also weighing on Crude prices was the USD’s strength against most of its crosses. Furthermore, the oversupply of Oil in the market helped weaken Oil prices, and if the situation continues, OPEC is unlikely to increase output in the group’s next meeting on September 9th.

Analysts stated that the disappointing U.S jobs numbers raised concern about the strength and timing of a U.S. and global economic recovery. The report confirmed what we saw earlier in the week with the lower U.S. Consumer Confidence figures. In turn, this reinforced the outlook for weak Crude Oil demand, and will continue the downward pressure on Crude prices into next week’s trading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair plummeted yesterday to as low as the 1.3927 level. According to the chart’s 4-hour Stochastic Slow, the pair seems to be oversold, and an upward movement today seems to be imminent However, the chart’s daily Stochastic Slow and 4-hour MACD support the downward trend to continue today. Going short with tight stops could be the opportunity to make big profits today.

GBP/USD

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the hourly chart’s MACD. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has gone increasingly bearish in the past 2 days, and currently stands at the 95.86 level. The daily chart’s oscillators seem to be misleading when it comes to this pair. If we look further, the weekly chart’s RSI supports this currency cross to fall further today. However, the chart’s 4-hour Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal will take place today. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.

USD/CHF

This pair has been range trading for the past 3 days between the 1.0700 and the 1.0910 levels. The chart’s hourly MACD indicates that USD/CHF seems to be running out of steam, and that today’s trading will witness a bearish reversal. This is also supported by the chart’s 4-hour Stochastic Slow. Going short with tight stops may turn out to be the wise strategy, as today’s trading day gets under way.

The Wild Card – Silver

Silver has seen a dismal week, dropping more than 50 pips, as the commodity now stands at the 13.45 level. However, the daily chart’s oscillators support an impending bullish reversal today. This is also supported by the chart’s 4-hour and weekly Stochastic Slow. Going long with tight stops may turn out to be a good strategy today, as forex traders seek to make some end-of-week profits.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Financial

€

The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3990 level and was capped around the $1.4155 level.  The common currency gaved back most of yesterday’s gains ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S.  As expected, the European Central Bank kept monetary policy unchanged and ECB President Trichet reported interest rates remain “appropriate.”  Trichet also said recent economic data indicate the global economy has reached an “inflection point in the cycle” and said policymakers “have to remain very alert.”  He added risks to the economic outlook are “balanced” and added inflation expectations are “anchored.” Most traders walked away with the impression that official eurozone interest rates will remain unchanged for quite some time.  The ECB will begin buying covered bonds – including mortgages and public sector debt – on 6 July as part of its quantitative easing framework.  The euro also moved lower after Ireland’s credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s and after it was reported the EMU-16 unemployment rate climbed to 9.5% in May, the highest level in ten years.  Also, eurozone producer prices were off for a tenth consecutive month in May, down 0.2% m/m and 5.8% y/y, the largest annual decline since at least January 1982.  In U.S. news, it was reported that June non-farm payrolls fell by 467,000, much worse than the -325,000 forecast.  The national unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, less than expected, but many economists continue to suggest the national unemployment rate will reach the psychologically-important 10.0% level.  Average hourly earnings were up 2.7% y/y, below expectations.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3435 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥95.80 level and was capped around the ¥96.85 level.  New Economy and Fiscal Policy minister Hayashi warned “Japan may slip back into deflation if the strength of the recovery is weak and the output gap keeps falling.  We don’t want deflation to become the main scenario.” Prime Minister Aso must call a general election by September and current polls show his Liberal Democratic Party of Japan trailing the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the June monetary base up 6.4% y/y.  Vice finance minister Sugimoto said he is unaware if Group of Eight leaders will discuss a replacement of the U.S. dollar as the world’s key reserve currency when policymakers convene this month.  Notably, the yen’s value on a trade-weighted basis declined to its lowest level since October 2008, trading at ¥114.80.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.64% to close at ¥9,876.15.   U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥134.10 level and was capped around the ¥136.75 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥156.85 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar moved lower vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8304 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8331.  Vice foreign minister He Yafei reiterated China’s calls for a diversification of foreign reserves and a stable dollar.  Group of Eight officials convene in Italy next week and may discuss China’s proposal regarding a new international reserve currency.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Fast Brokers – Gold is behaving pretty well today considering the size of the selloff taking place in U.S. equities markets.  It seems the pullback in the S&P has already been factored into gold during the precious metal’s rapid decline in June.  Gold is holding onto June lows with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD fighting to keep their respective technical supports intact.  Though gold reacted negatively to the discouraging unemployment data out of the U.S., volume has been under control.  However, we will have to see how the 16:00 bar on the 4-hour fares volatility wise, and whether the precious metal chooses to retest June lows.  The technical key to the downside will be our 1st tier uptrend line.  Below here, gold has June lows and naturally the highly psychological $900/oz level.  Due to the July 4th holiday-shortened week, investors may not have enough ammo to send the S&P futures tumbling below their June lows.  Gold would need a technical statement to the downside such as this for the precious metal to compromise its own June lows.  Gold will likely take its cue from the S&P and its behavior between 875-900.  Therefore, investors should keep a close eye on U.S. equities and their reaction to upcoming 2nd quarter earnings reports.

Present Price: $928.18/oz

Resistances: $930.56/oz, $932.29/oz, $934.36/oz, $936.78/oz, $939.37/oz

Supports: $927.98/oz, $925.24/oz, $923.59/oz, $921.41/oz, $918.99/oz

Psychological: $900/oz

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY’s little rally is fading again as volume subsides.  It seems the USD/JPY is dribbling to a dead-halt directionally with four consecutive lower highs (4/6, 5/7, 6/5, and now 7/1) combined with two consecutive higher lows (5/22, 6/23).  The currency pair remains stuck choosing between the two deteriorating economies of Japan and the U.S.  While worse than expected Tankan data provides upward buoyancy on the USD/JPY, negative unemployment data and falling U.S. equities create a downward pressure on price.  Hence, we see a tight, constrictive trading range in the USD/JPY.  The currency pair is following the negative data out of the U.S. and EU today, dipping back towards our 2nd tier downtrend line.  Meanwhile, investors should keep a close watch on the S&P to see how the futures deal with the 875-900 range.  If the S&P’s bottom-end supports don’t hold and a new leg down forms, this movement may be enough to send the USD/JPY falling towards our key 1st tier uptrend line.

Present Price: 96.15

Resistances: 96.33, 96.90, 97.45, 98.05, 98.66

Supports: 95.73, 94.99, 94.45, 93.76, 93.32

Psychological: 95, 100

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable is reacting negatively to the negative unemployment data points from both the U.S. and EU.  Additionally, Britain’s construction PMI contracted from its previously release, coming in below analyst expectations.  The positive sentiment the Pound has garnered over the past couple months has been dented by the disappointing GDP and current account data released earlier this week.  Additionally, we’ve recently seen key British data points, such as today’s construction PMI number, take a step back from their recovery uptrend.  Therefore, our 1.6212 support may be tested again due to the questions raised by mixed data points.  Britain will release two more heavily-weighted data points tomorrow, including its services PMI and the Halifax HPI.  While home prices will likely continue to improve, it will be interesting to see whether the services PMI can keep its uptrend going, or if it contracts like today’s construction PMI.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are retesting 900 again and crude is logging large losses on climbing volume.  Investors should take note since these two investment vehicles are negative correlated with the Greenback, or positively correlated with the Cable.  If the S&P can’t hold onto June lows and crude experiences technically significant losses, the GBP/USD would likely follow suit.  If our 2nd tier downtrend line doesn’t hold, we may see today’s pullback pick up pace towards our 1st tier uptrend line.  We believe our 1st tier uptrend plays a key role in regards to the near-term direction of the Cable.  Therefore, investors should keep a close eye on this area should it be tested.  While volatility should remain at a heightened level today due to the news and the fact that it’s a holiday shortened week, we expect our 1st tier uptrend line to hold since investors will likely wait to see how the S&P behaves between 875-900.  In the meantime, we maintain our neutral stance trend-wise on the Cable until the currency pair makes a clear break from either our 1st tier uptrend line or 3rd tier downtrend line.

Present Price: 1.6352

Resistances: 1.6405, 1.6446, 1.6449, 1.6553, 1.6602

Supports: 1.6323, 1.6278, 1.6245, 1.6212, 1.6183

Psychological: 1.65, 1.60

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is losing yesterday’s positive momentum after employment data from both the EU and U.S. showed rising unemployment continues to be a thorn in the side of the economic recovery.  The EU’s unemployment rate came in at 9.5%, two basis points above analyst expectations, while the previous release was revised upwards by one basis point.  As for the U.S., America’s unemployment was also reported at 9.5%, a basis point below analyst expectations.  However, its non-farm employment change was much lower than anticipated (-467k vs. -360k).  Additionally, weekly unemployment claims remain at a 600k+ level with average hourly earnings dropping to a flat 0.0%.  Although the global economic stimulus packages have helped boost production and manufacturing, job creation in both the EU and U.S. hasn’t benefited as much as governments had hoped.  The bleak state of unemployment is dragging on the EUR/USD due to the negative reaction of U.S. equities and crude.  The EUR/USD is positively correlated with the S&P futures, so investors should monitor the S&P and its interaction with its highly psychological 900 level.  We suspect volatility may remain high throughout today’s session since Friday will be shortened due to the July 4th weekend.

The ECB kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 1% as analysts expected.  We believe the ECB will keep a neutral stance as far as monetary policy is concerned as the central bank monitors the impact of its purchase of covered bonds.  Investors should also keep in mind the EU opened a roughly $615 billion liquidity window to banks last week in the form of 1 year 1% loans.  The ECB wants to see how these alternative liquidity measures impact the credit markets and availability of funds to struggling EU exporters and manufacturers.  However, the ECB has been prone to surprise the market in the past in order to induce a monetary shock, so investors shouldn’t be complacent and expect the ECB to stay quiet for too long.

Despite the pullback in the EUR/USD, bulls should be encouraged that volume hasn’t spiked to an abnormal level.  Furthermore, the EUR/USD is finding support in our 2nd tier uptrend line and the psychological 1.40 level.  As a result, it seems the EUR/USD may carry its trading range into next week.  The trading range could get tighter soon since investors may wait for our 1st tier uptrend and 3rd tier downtrend lines to approach their inflection point before making a key directional decision.  Hence, investors may want to view the 2nd quarter earnings reports and updated guidance from corporate officers over the next couple weeks before committing to either trend.  On the other hand, should either our 1st tier uptrend or 3rd tier downtrend line break, investors could see the formation of a new directional leg.

Present Price: 1.4050

Resistances: 1.4059, 1.4097, 1.4114, 1.4141, 1.4167

Supports: 1.4024, 1.40, 1.3978, 1.3937, 1.3889

Psychological: 1.40

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

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By CountingPips.com

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls employment data released today showed that jobs fell more than expected in June. The Department of Labor nonfarm payrolls report showed that U.S. payrolls shed 467,000 jobs in June following a revised drop of 322,000 jobs in May. This was the eighteenth straight month that companies have shed workers and the unemployment rate jumped from 9.4 percent to 9.5 percent bringing the rate to its highest standing since 1983.

May’s job decline was revised lower to show a loss of 322,000 jobs from the original report of 345,000 jobs lost. The amount of jobs lost since December 2007 has now totaled 7.2 million according to the Labor Department and the unemployment rate has increased by 4.6 percent in that time span.

The June Labor Department report surpassed market forecasts that were expecting a loss of 365,000 jobs and almost matched the forecasts expecting the unemployment rate to reach 9.6 percent.

The decline in jobs was spread throughout most economic sectors with the exception of the education & health services sector which saw 34,000 jobs created in June. The service-providing sector was the hardest hit by job losses for the month as this sector lost 244,000 total jobs with professional & business services shedding 118,000 workers, retail trade cutting 21,000 workers and leisure & hospitality losing 18,000 workers for the month.  Government employment also declined by 52,000. The goods-producing sector lost 223,000 jobs for the month as the manufacturing sector cut 136,000 jobs and the construction sector lost 79,000 jobs.

US Dollar gains in forex trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been stronger in forex trading today against the other major currencies following the government jobs report. The euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar have declined while the Japanese yen has increased versus the American currency.

The EUR/USD pair has declined slightly from today’s opening rate of 1.4114 dollars at 00:00GMT to trading to 1.4009 at 11:27 am EST in the late morning of the U.S. trading session according to currency data by Oanda.

The British pound has fallen versus the dollar as the GBP/USD has declined from today’s opening level at 1.6464 to trading today at 1.6372.

The US dollar has fallen today against the yen as the USD/JPY opened today at 96.59 and has declined to trading at 96.02.

The dollar has gained today versus the Swiss franc as the USD/CHF has gone from the 1.0767 opening rate to trading at 1.0852.

The dollar has increased today against the Canadian loonie as the USD/CAD has advanced to trading around the 1.1611 level today after opening at 1.1488.

The Australian Aussie has fallen versus the US dollar today as the AUD/USD has declined to the 0.7950 level after opening at 0.8052. The New Zealand kiwi has also declined against the dollar as the NZD/USD has reached the 0.6284 level today after opening the day at 0.6385.

AUD/USD Chart – The Australian Dollar declining against the US Dollar today and falling below the 200-hour moving average in white.