EUR/USD bulls find a short-term make-or-break level around 1.1350

July 10, 2020

By Admiral Markets

Economic events

Source: Economic Events July 10, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

The Euro continued to stabilise against the region around 1.1150/1200, while still aiming at the 1.1300 mark, as such a sustainable break higher levels the path up to 1.1400/50 and possibly even higher.

Technically, we consider the region around 1.1350 to be the “make-or-break” level, where a sustainable break higher could deliver the fuel for a stint up to the region around the current yearly highs.


Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Report: - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.




Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter






But the question is: “What could ignite such a bullish stint and break higher?”, especially given the quite thin economic calendar for the weekly close and the near-future?

Our main focus remains on the developments in 10-year US yields, as they near the important support region around 0.60%, and a break lower would not only drive Gold higher, but also the USD lower (thus pushing EUR/USD higher).

As already pointed out in our last on Gold last Wednesday, the shrinking Fed balance sheet resulting out of a continuing decline in demand for the US central bank’s USD swap lines from foreign central banks like the ECB, BoJ or BoE while rather sooner than later reverse again and thus result in pressure on US yields and on the US dollar again.

Therefore, we should keep a close eye on developments in Equity markets, where rising volatility could trigger such an expansive monetary policy approach from the Fed among market participants.

While short-term a break above 1.1350 brings the focus on the region around 1.1400/50, the broader picture and break above leaves EUR/USD with bullish potential up to the region around 1.1700/1.1800, while only a drop below 1.1150 could trigger a deeper correction with a target around 1.1000:

EUR/USD daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between May 10, 2019, to July 9, 2020). Accessed: July 9, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the EUR/USD fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017, it increased by 13.92%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, 2019, it fell by 2.2%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 7.3%.

Discover the world’s #1 multi-asset platform

Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!

Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.

Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets