Elevated volatility in the DAX30 CFD into the start of the week?

December 2, 2019

By Admiral Markets

Economic Event

Source: Economic Events December 2, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While the last week of trading primarily saw subdued volatility in the DAX30 CFD, this will likely change as we start this trading week.

Technically, the German index continues to trade sideways between 13,100 and 13,300 points. Due to its proximity to the 13,300 region, it is generally more likely to get to see a break on the upside, with a first potential target being seen around 13,370 / 13,400 points.

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A break higher could be initiated by the upcoming US ISM manufacturing figures, which are due at 3 pm GMT. A better-than-expected dataset could initially dampen recession concerns for the world’s largest economy. A lower-than-expected data set could, on the other hand, fuel speculation that a more dovish approach by the Fed at the policy meeting on December 11 would be more likely.
Or to put it another way: the DAX could be off to a win-win in the start of the week.

On the flip side, however, there is also the danger of a renewed escalation in the US-Chinese trade conflict, after US President Trump signed a Legislation Bill on developments in Hong Kong during the night from last Wednesday to Thursday.

The resulting support for Hong Kong and clear US position against China could spark a response from the Chinese that China could for the time being fail the current Phase 1 trade talks and put the DAX under pressure.

This would then put the region around 13,100 into focus and below the area around 13,040 / 050 points at the center of the action.

DAX30 CFD- Hourly Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between November 12, 2019, to November 29, 2019). Accessed: November 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

DAX30 CFD - Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between August 23, 2018, to November 29, 2019). Accessed: November 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

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