10-Year Note Speculators edged their bearish bets higher this week

August 3, 2019

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators continued to raise their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -383,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly change of -3,673 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -380,169 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 14,814 contracts (to a weekly total of 693,303 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 18,487 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,077,145 contracts).

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Large speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks.

The speculative position has remained overall bearish dating back to December of 2017, reaching an all-time record high bearish level on September 25th of 2018. Since then, speculative bearish positions have retreated but have continued to remain overall bearish. Usually reliable trend-followers, the speculators have been caught on the wrong side of this market this year as 10-year bonds have been strongly bid.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 311,918 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the total net of 311,782 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.78 which was a shortfall of $-0.01 from the previous close of $127.79, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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