10-Year Note Speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for 4th week

August 10, 2019

August 10th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets once again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -390,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 6th. This was a weekly change of -7,044 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -383,842 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -34,857 contracts (to a weekly total of 658,446 contracts) which overcame a decline in the gross bearish position (shorts) by -27,813 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,049,332 contracts).

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Speculators increased their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and for the fifth time out of the last six weeks (also 15 times out of last 20 weeks). Specs have consistently been bearish on the 10-year note this year and have been consistently on the wrong side of this market as the 10-year note has surged due to safe haven demand and concerns over the economy.

The speculator’s total net position was a total of -188,068 contracts on January 8th (this year’s first release) compared to the current net position of -390,886 contracts on August 6th. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year note was as high as 2.75 percent on January 8th (yield up, bond prices down) but has sharply deteriorated since then and currently the yield is sitting at 1.75 percent (yield down, bond prices up) and even reached as low as 1.59 percent earlier this week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 321,413 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 9,495 contracts from the total net of 311,918 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $130.31 which was an uptick of $2.53 from the previous close of $127.78, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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