10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets higher this week

July 20, 2019

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -347,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly change of -58,386 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -288,836 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -1,435 contracts (to a weekly total of 680,971 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by 56,951 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,028,193 contracts).

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Large speculators added to their existing bearish positions by the most in six weeks and pushed the current bearish standing above the -300,000 net contract level for the first time in a month.

Speculators are usually reliable trend-followers and momentum traders but have been betting against higher 10-year bond prices in recent months despite prices go higher.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 289,324 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 74,147 contracts from the total net of 215,177 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.28 which was a fall of $-0.39 from the previous close of $127.67, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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