Month: February 2014

Investors are awaiting the release of  capital expenditure figures to sneak a peak into the future direction of the Australian economy, the AUD/USD and gold.

Key Takeaways:

Private capital expenditure QoQ release scheduled for February 27 at 19:30 EST. Analysts forecast the figure as -1.3%, a decline over the 3.6% of the previous quarter. Traders can gain exposure to the release through the AUD/USD, with a better than expected figure boosting the pair, perhaps through range resistance at 0.9060. Gold is also an option. With the precious metal currently trading at resistance that could be broken if a better than expected figure is released. The chart below outlines the durection AUD/USD has taken.

Written by Daniel Elo, Independent Analyst at EconomicCalendar.com

On gold we have adjusted the wave count after recent acceleration and daily close above 1300 level. We are now tracking an incomplete triangle in wave 4) but bias remains the same; we see move up from 1181 as temporary and corrective retracement that may stop and send prices down in second part of this month. We see resistance for a potential turning pint at 1330, 1362, followed by 1376.

GOLD Four Hour

Gold has turned down from 1345 resistance area where we see a completed five wave rise from 1251 level, which was the end point of a triangle. There are chances that market accomplished wave (c) that is a part of a huge zigzag from 1181 low. Notice that price also moved beneath 1251-1307 trendline that suggests further weakness in the short-term, probably back to 1307 area of a former wave iv).

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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By CentralBankNews.info
    Fiji’s central bank held its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) steady at 0.5 percent, saying the bank’s twin policy objectives of low inflation and adequate foreign reserves were currently stable so the accommodative policy stance remains appropriate.
    The Reserve Bank of Fiji, which has maintained rates since December 2011, reiterated that it expects Fiji’s economy to grow faster than the pre-budget estimate of 3.0 percent due to the government’s expansionary stance this year. Fiji’s economy is estimated to have expanded by 3.6 percent in 2013.
    “Domestic economic conditions remain positive with improved performances envisaged for most key sectors of the economy this year,” Robin Yarrow, the bank’s acting chairman,  said in a statement. He added that aggregate demand was continuing to strengthen due to a buoyant performance of consumption and investment activity, with surveys pointing to improving prospects in coming months.
    Financial conditions also remain conducive for growth with ample liquidity leading to lower interest rates and annual commercial bank credit expanded by 17 percent in the year to January, a 7-year high.
    Fiji’s inflation rate eased to 2.3 percent in January while foreign reserves were at comfortable levels of around $1.763 billion as of Jan. 30, sufficient to cover 4.7 months of imports.
    However, Acting Chairman Yarrow also noted that the Reserve Bank is closely monitoring the level of foreign reserves as demand for imports tend to rise much faster than exports when the economy grows, resulting in a widening of the trade deficit.
   “While buoyant economic activity is beneficial to the economy, for a small open economy like Fiji with a very narrow export base, too much of it can create inflationary pressure and place pressure on our balance of payment position,” Yarrow cautioned.
    In its January economic review, the central bank said the trade deficit widened by 34.6 percent cumulative to October 2013 as imports rose by 10.8 percent while exports fell by 9.0 percent due to lower earnings from re-exports, gold, sugar, textiles, mineral water, coconut oil, timber, ginger and other domestic exports.
    Nevertheless, Fiji’s current account position is supported by healthy inflows of tourism earnings and personnel remittances, the bank said. Fiji’s current account showed a surplus of 15.8 million Fijian dollars in the third quarter of 2013.
    Fiji’s government is targeting a net deficit of 1.9 percent in 2014, with asset sales expected to generate revenues of around $475.2 million. Excluding the asset sales, the underlying deficit jumps to 7.7 percent, according to the bank’s January economic reviews.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb
 

By CentralBankNews.info
    Moldova’s central bank maintained its base rate at 3.5 percent, along with its rates on overnight loans and deposits, saying monetary policy continues to be determined by the complex balance of risks from inflationary and disinflationary forces.
    The National Bank of Moldova, which last cut its rate by 100 basis points in April 2013, said inflation eased to 5.1 percent in January from 5.2 percent in December due to lower regulated prices, a lack of aggregate demand and inflationary pressures despite the depreciation of the Moldavian leu against major trading partners.
    The central bank targets inflation of 5.0 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage point. The leu depreciated by 10.6 percent against the euro in 2013 and has continued to drop this year, down 4 percent so far in 2014, trading at 18.62 to the euro today.
    The central bank also said data for trade and industrial production showed significant growth in the fourth quarter of 2013, with exports and imports up by 11.0 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, while industrial production was up by 6.8 percent. In terms of consumer demand, annual real wage growth in the fourth quarter was 3.6 percent while cash remittances rose by an annual 6.2 percent.

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EURUSD: While EUR maintains an immediate downside pressure, its broader medium term upside bias remains intact. However, the pair should face further weakness before eventually putting in a bottom. Support comes in at the 1.3600 level , its psycho level with a breach of here paving the way for a run to the downside towards the 1.3561 level, its Feb 12 2014 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, EUR will have to retake the 1.3695 level to halt its present decline. This if seen could force further upside towards the 1.3772 level. Above here will turn attention to the 1.3800 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance is located at the 1.3893 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. A turn above here will expose the 1.3950 level and next the 1.4000 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on pullbacks.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The 18-nation euro was seen dropping as the Spanish economy weakened in the last quarter of 2013, reports from the National Institute of Statistics confirmed.

The euro declined by 0.23% at $1.3653, while Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) report, lost approximately 30 pips.

The euro traded flat at £0.8207 against the British Pound, while against the Japanese yen, the euro eased 0.28% to ¥139.63.

Euro – Spain GDP

The Spanish economy expanded by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2013, compared to the rise of 0.5% seen in the previous three months and meeting in line with analysts’ forecasts, reports from the National Institute of Statistics confirmed on Thursday.

Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) remained weak at an annual basis, dropping 0.2% in the fourth quarter.

However, the European Commission forecasted the Spanish economy would expand by 0.5% this year, while Spain’s Prime Minister Rajoy said the country’s economy is expected to rise more than the official estimates for this year.

Germany’s Data

Meanwhile in Germany, the country’s labour figures outpaced analysts forecasts as the number of unemployed in Germany dropped by 14,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, reports from Destatis confirmed. Germany’s unemployment rate came in unchanged at 6.8%.

Additional releases such as Germany’s inflation data are due later, which analysts are expecting to see a quickened pace of 0.6% month-on-month, compared to the slowdown seen in January.

“German CPI print will provide an indication of what to expect for tomorrow’s euro zone aggregate print. A weak inflation number today will no doubt raise market concerns of potential ECB action next week,” Lloyds Bank wrote in its research note.

Yellen Testimony in Focus

Meanwhile traders are focusing on the new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen to deliver her testimony on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed’s semi-annual policy report known as Humphrey Hawkins. The testimony is due later in the day.

The US Federal Reserve reduced its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion at each of its two meetings, leaving its monthly stimulus at $65 billion. The yellow metal surged 70% from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank added over $4 trillion into the financial system to boost growth.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold futures were seen trading nearly flat on Thursday, dropping from a four-month high seen in the previous session as sales in new homes in the US climbs to a five-year high and market participants focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen upcoming testimony later in the day.

Gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.05% higher to $1,328.60 an ounce at the time of writing on the Comex, while silver futures slid 0.78% to $21.090 an ounce at the same time.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six of its major peers, dropped 0.05%lower to 80.392.

Holdings in the world’s biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, came at 803.7 tones on Wednesday. Market analysts’ are forecasting SPDR Gold Trust to record its first monthly rise since December 2012.

Gold is climbing for the second month in a row in February, the longest rising-streak since August.

Gold – Yellen Testimony in Focus

Meanwhile traders are focusing on the new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen to deliver her testimony on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed’s semi-annual policy report known as Humphrey Hawkins. The testimony is due later in the day.

The US Federal Reserve reduced its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion at each of its two meetings, leaving its monthly stimulus at $65 billion. The yellow metal surged 70% from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank added over $4 trillion into the financial system to boost growth.

US Home Sales

Meanwhile new home sales in the US climbed to its highest in five years boosting optimism in the economy.

Sales of new homes came in at 9.6% to 468,000 units in January, climbing to the highest level since June 2008 and compared to forecasts of a 3.4% drop to 400,000 units, reports from the Department of Commerce confirmed on Wednesday.

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The post Gold Prices Trades Flat on US Home Sales appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 27^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Current correction turns out to be deeper that we expected. Possibly, later price may rebound from local level of 50%. If it happens, pair will start new ascending movement towards upper fibo-levels.

As we can see at H1 chart, price rebounded from one of intermediate levels and stated new correction. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, level of 50% may be reached during the day. If later price rebounds from it, I’ll increase my long position.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc rebounded from local level of 38.2%; right now, price is trying to rebound from upper border of descending channel. I’ll move stop on my sell order into the black as soon as market starts falling down.

At H1 chart, price is getting closer to temporary fibo-zone. Possibly, pair may start new descending movement quite soon and break previous minimum by Friday.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 27^th, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still consolidating. Probably, price has already completed wave [2] and right now is staring moving upwards inside the third one. I’m planning to move stop into the black right after instrument breaks local maximum.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Index formed several initial ascending waves. Possibly, price is starting to form extension inside the third wave. Most likely, instrument will start moving upwards during the day.

Crude Oil

Oil is still forming bullish impulse inside wave C. On major wave level, price is forming double zigzag pattern inside wave [B]. It looks like instrument is going to reach level of $104 per barrel of Light Sweet until the end of this week.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. Oil completed the fourth wave inside wave C and started moving upwards the fifth one. I’ll move stop into the black right after instrument breaks maximum.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

AUDUSD is facing 0.8906 support, a breakdown this level will signal completion of the uptrend from 0.8660, then next target would be at 0.8780 area. On the upside, as long as 0.8906 support holds, the price action in the trading range between 0.8906 and 0.9080 would possibly be consolidation of the uptrend from 0.8660, one more rise to 0.9400 area to complete the upward movement is still possible.

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