By CountingPips.com
The latest weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders slightly decreased their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week following six consecutive weeks of increases in USD positions.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, registered an overall US dollar long position of $24.8 billion as of Tuesday March 26th. This was a decline from a total long position of $25.753 billion on March 19th, according to position calculations by Reuters (US dollar positions against the total positions of eurofx, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Futures Positions:
The individual currency contracts quoted directly against the US dollar last week saw increases for the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar while the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc all had a declining number of net contracts for the week.
Individual Currency Charts:
EuroFX:
EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro decreased last week for a second week in a row. Euro contracts declined to a total net position of -49,095 contracts in the data reported for March 26th following the previous week’s total of -44,884 net contracts on March 19th. This is a change of -4,211 contracts from the previous week.
Euro spec positions are at a new low level for 2013 and the lowest standing since November 27 2012 when positions stood at -66,693 contracts. EuroFx speculative contracts have now been in bearish territory for five weeks in a row.
BritishPound Sterling:
GBP: British pound sterling spec positions continued their decline last week for a tenth consecutive week and to the lowest standing since early of October 2011. British pound speculative positions fell last week to a total of -66,555 net contracts on March 26th following a total of -61,480 net contracts reported for March 19th. This was a weekly change of -5075 in large trader contracts.
Pound speculator positions have now been in a bearish position for seven consecutive weeks since crossing over on February 5th and are at the lowest level since October 4th 2011 when positions equaled -68,724 contracts.
Japanese Yen:
JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts fell last week after rebounding the previous week. Japanese yen positions declined to a total of -89,149 net contracts on March 26th following a total of -79,993 net short contracts on March 19th. This is a weekly change of -9156 positions.
Yen positions are at their third lowest point since December 11th 2012 when short positions equaled -94,401 contracts.
Swiss Franc:
CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions decreased slightly last week to fall for the fifth out of last six weeks. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures fell to a total of -12,198 contracts on March 26th following a total of -10,996 net contracts reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change of -1,202 contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
CAD: Canadian dollar positions increased slightly last week to end a streak of nine consecutive weeks of decline. Canadian dollar positions rose to a total of -62,645 contracts as of March 26th following a total of -65,331 net contracts that were reported for March 19th.
This is a weekly change of +2,686 net contracts following a weekly change of -11,934 the previous week.
Australian Dollar:
AUD: The Australian dollar jumped sharply again last week to rise for a third consecutive week. Aussie speculative futures positions increased to a total net amount of +85,515 contracts on March 26th after totaling +54,055 net contracts as of March 19th. This is a weekly change of +31,460 in net positions following the previous week’s +30,789 change.
Australian dollar contracts are at their highest level since January 22, 2013 when positions equaled +97,011 contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions rebounded last week after decreasing sharply the previous week. NZD contracts rose to a total of +16,916 net long contracts as of March 26th following a total of +12,477 net long contracts on March 19th. This constitutes a weekly change of +4,439 net contracts.
The New Zealand dollar positions had stayed above the +19,000 contracts level for ten consecutive weeks before the March 19th decline.
Mexican Peso:
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts rose last week after a decline the previous week. Peso positions increased to a total of +128,162 net speculative positions as of March 26th following a total of +109,376 contracts that were reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change in net large peso speculator positions of +18,786 contracts.
Peso speculative positions have been over the +100,000 threshold for three straight weeks after falling under this level on March 5th for the first time since November 27th 2012.
Macro Financial Markets:
10 Year Treasuries:
10 Year Notes: 10-Year Treasury Notes speculative contracts surged higher last week to increase for a second consecutive week. 10-Year positions rose to a total of +98,190 net speculative positions as of March 26th following a total of -3,295 contracts that were reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change in net large speculator positions of +101,485 contracts.
10-Year Treasury speculative positions, on March 12th at -57,346 contracts, had fallen to their lowest level since July 24, 2012 before turning around the past few weeks.
Crude Oil Light Sweet:
Crude Oil: Crude Oil speculative contracts rose higher last week following five straight weeks of decline. Crude positions rose to a total of +244,607 net speculative positions as of March 26th following a total of +223,721 contracts that were reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change in net large speculator positions of +20,886 contracts.
Crude Oil speculative positions had declined for five weeks after reaching a 52 week high on February 12th at +272,875 contracts.
Gold Futures CMX:
Gold: Gold speculative contracts decreased slightly last week following two straight weeks of incline. Gold futures positions declined to a total of +132,446 net speculative positions as of March 26th following a total of +135,610 contracts that were reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change in net large speculator positions of -3,164 contracts.
Gold speculative positions have been on a steady decline since reaching an apex on October 9th 2012 at +211,949 contracts.
S&P 500 Index Futures:
S&P 500: S&P 500 speculative contracts decreased last week for a second week in a row. S&P 500 futures positions declined to a total of +4,371 net speculative positions as of March 26th following a total of +5,695 contracts that were reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change in net large speculator positions of -1,324 contracts.
VIX Futures:
VIX: VIX speculative contracts increased last week to their highest level (or lowest short level) since August 2012. VIX futures positions rose to a total of -63,583 net speculative positions as of March 26th following a total of -84,400 contracts that were reported for March 19th. This is a weekly change in net large speculator positions of +20,817 contracts.
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis
