The Biggest Threat to the US Economy

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The US economy is slowing down.

On Friday, we learned that growth slipped to 1.5% in the second quarter. It was better than expected, but still down from the 1.9% annualised growth seen in the first quarter.

Perhaps more importantly, unless a deal on spending and taxes can be reached by the end of the year, massive spending cuts will take place. This is the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ that everyone seems terrified of plunging over.

Yet US shares have been surprisingly resilient so far. Can this continue? Or should you be looking to invest elsewhere?

Why is the US Economy Slowing Now?

Earlier this year, things seemed to be looking up for the US. An average of 225,000 jobs were added in the first three months of this year. US unemployment fell from 8.5% in December to 8.1% in April.

The picture from several of the key leading indicators was also positive. Consumer confidence reached a peak of 79.3 in May – the highest since January 2008. Upbeat consumers normally spend more money, which suggested the strong run would continue.

However, things have taken a turn for the worse. Mean jobs growth fell to 75,000 in April, May and June, pushing unemployment back up to 8.2%. Consumer confidence has fallen back.

That saw second quarter growth slip to 1.5% – well below the rate needed to keep unemployment falling. Things look even grimmer if you take a closer look at the latest GDP statistics.

Durable goods orders (‘big ticket’ items) fell by 1%, while inventories rose. This suggests that firms will have the option of running down stocks rather than ordering new goods. That in turn will drag on GDP in the third quarter.

Worst of all, demand seems to be dropping, with personal consumption growth falling by half.

So why have consumers stopped buying? Fears over the euro crisis may be one reason why Americans feel more inclined to save money rather than spend it. The ‘flight to quality’, prompted by fears about European banks and countries, has also pushed up the US dollar, against the euro. It is now close to a two-year high. This has made exports dearer.

Weak Asian demand is also bad news for American firms trying to sell their goods and services abroad.

However, exports aren’t the main reason for the slowdown. While export growth has slowed, exports to the eurozone are still up on last year. In any case, the eurozone crisis has been going on for the past 18 months, so it has limited value in explaining the sudden slowdown.

The Chances of the US Economy
Going Over the Fiscal Cliff Are High

The main factor worrying consumers may well be the looming ‘fiscal cliff‘.

Last summer, as you might remember, there was a major fight over the decision to increase the amount that the US government can legally borrow. While these fights are usually symbolic, some politicians in Congress refused to allow the debt limit to be increased, arguing that government spending had got out of control.

At one point the US government came very close to either defaulting on its short-term debt, or temporarily shutting down the government.

In the end, a deal was done. But as part of it, both parties agreed a process whereby public spending would be reduced in 2013. Automatic cuts were set in place, to ensure some cutting was done even if politicians couldn’t agree on where to trim. Tax cuts are set to expire at the same time.

Combined, these measures would reduce the US deficit (its annual overspend), by $500bn (it currently overspends by more than a trillion dollars a year). While this would improve the US finances, the cuts would also hit economic growth. Indeed, the economy could be pushed into recession.

A cynic might argue that much of this is pre-election posturing. Politicians being politicians, you’d expect them to eventually reach a deal that allows both parties to save face, while moderating both the hikes and the cuts. One solution, for example, would be to allow the top rate of tax to revert to its original higher level, while keeping all the other brackets the same.

However, the coming US election is likely to leave Congress split between the two parties. As a result, each side will have a veto over any solution. So far from being more open to compromise, the losing side is likely to dig in its heels, to show its supporters that it still means business.

Yes, some of the cuts, especially to the defence budget, may be moderated. However, the bottom line is that a sudden fiscal contraction is much likelier than you might think. And it seems that much of the weak growth in investment and consumer spending could well be due to consumers and businesses being unsure of how much money they should set aside for taxes.

US Shares Look Too Expensive

Dylan Grice of Societe Generale also notes that things are looking bad for US firms. With US profit margins at or near record levels, you can ‘expect margins (and hence profits) to plunge lower’. If this proves correct, then share prices will be hit hard.

Given that the S&P 500 is one of the more expensive global stock markets these days, we’d avoid the index for now. But we wouldn’t advise you to go short. As we’ve pointed out before, Ben Bernanke pays close attention to the stock market. If prices plunge you can expect him to launch another round of money printing. The GDP data probably wasn’t bad enough to justify a third batch of quantitative easing (QE) on their own, but Bernanke will be looking for an excuse.

Instead, we’d suggest you look at markets that are cheap. They’d still benefit from any fresh QE in the US, but also look good value on their own.

Matthew Partridge
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek (UK)

From the Archives…

Get Ready to Pin Back Your Ears With Gold Stocks
27-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Upcoming Interest Rates Shock You Should Prepare For
26-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Don’t Believe ‘the Bull’ on Australian House Prices
25-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Why the Melbourne Property Market Could Be Set For Two Years of Pain
24-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The End of Growth Through Currency Wars
23-07-2012 – Dan Denning


The Biggest Threat to the US Economy

India holds rate steady, cuts SLR to help credit flow

By Central Bank News

    The Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark repurchase rate steady at 8.0 percent, as expected, to rein in inflation expectations but trimmed the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 100 basis points to 23.0 percent to encourage banks to lend more money to productive sectors of the economy.
    In its first quarter review of monetary policy, India’s central bank stressed that its main task was to contain inflation to safeguard medium-term growth and a reduction in interest rates would merely stoke inflationary expectations without necessarily stimulating growth.
    “While monetary actions over the past two years may have contributed to the growth slowdown – an unavoidable consequence – several other factors have played a significant role,” the RBI said.
    “In the current circumstances, lowering policy rates will only aggravate inflationary impulses without necessarily stimulating growth,” the bank added.
    The SLR dictates the amount of deposits that banks must hold in government bonds.

    The RBI cut rates by 50 basis points in April, a rate cut that the Indian central bank described as front loading in view of the slowdown in growth. But from March 2010 to October 2011 the bank had been on a path of sustained rate hikes, increasing the repo rate from 4.25 percent to 8.50 percent, or by 425 basis points to contain inflation.

    “Subsequent developments suggested that even as growth moderated, inflation remained sticky,” the bank said, adding this heightened risk of inflation was the reason that it kept rates on hold last month in the face of slowing growth.
    Inflation, measured both as consumer and wholesale prices, average some 5.5 percent during the 2000s, down from an earlier trend rate of about 7.5 percent. The bank said it would continue to contain the perception of inflation in the range of 4.0-4.5 percent, in line with the bank’s medium-term objective of 3.0 percent inflation that is consistent with India’s integration in the global economy.
     In June the key wholesale inflation rate in India was 7.25 percent, down from 7.55 percent.
    www.CentralBankNews.info

ECB Prepares to Intervene in the Debt Crisis

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – According to Jean-Claude Junker, the Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, the EFSC and the European Central Bank are preparing to make a coordinated move to reduce the borrowing costs in the region. Junker indicated this in an interview with one of the leading media houses and the comments are in line with the ones made by Mario Draghi, the ECB President; Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor; and Francoise Hollande the French President. The comments have been precipitated by the rising borrowing cost in Italy and Spain.

The European Central Bank has bought bond before in 2010 from Greece and in Summer of 2011 from Italy and Spain. The move was chosen over printing more money in a quantitative easing program. The quantitative easing program has been used by the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, but the ECB stopped the SMP program after it introduced the LTRO program.

Some of the steps investors are expecting the ECB to take include a reintroduction of bond buying program where they would make massive scale bond-purchases not seen before.  This move would have to be made without sterilizing the bond buys as there are fears of inability to drain out the funds, the ECB can also claim that the move is a measure to tackle the danger of deflation, which would then make this to fall under the Bank’s mandate.

Analysts have indicated that an unsterilized QE program would weaken the euro as the Central Bank would be pouring money into the markets. A weak euro would be good for Spain; however, analysts have warned that the QE program has been strong in the US but this is not the case in other places. There is a general feeling that printing more euro would increase the common currencies value hence beating the potential devaluation effect.

The European Central Bank would make this as the biggest move that has a potential to quell some of the problems facing the single-currency bloc, but there are some opposition from Germany and other members of the bloc. This is something the bank and the region leaders will have to deal with if the ECB is to implement something that will support Mario Draghi’s comments.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

What is Germany’s Next Move?

By The Sizemore Letter

Moody’s announcement last week that Germany was at risk of losing its AAA credit rating should have come as no surprise. The slow-motion Eurozone train wreck leaves no “good” outcome for Germany. If Germany acquiesces to bailouts of the size and scope that are needed to restore market confidence, government debt is going to rise to uncomfortable levels. But if Germany refuses, it is hard to see the Eurozone remaining intact. And the economic dislocations, collapse of trade, and deep recession that would follow would also mean that Germany’s sovereign debt load would rise to uncomfortable levels.

But lest you start to feel bad for ol’ Deutschland, keep in mind that German indecision and intransigence have been major drivers of the loss of investor confidence in the Eurozone. More than anything, markets hate uncertainty, and Germany’s aloofness has created uncertainty in spades.

We have reached a point where the single most important factor in determining the direction of the market on a given day was what German Chancellor Angela Merkel had for breakfast that morning. Still, the German position appears to be shifting into something a little more coherent.

European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi sent world markets soaring last week by pledging that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro and adding with a touch of machismo that “believe me, it will be enough.”

Draghi would not have made those statements unless he believed he had political cover from Germany. And indeed, shortly after Draghi’s comments, Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande appeared in a joint press conference to announce that “European institutions must fulfill their obligations ,” which—in the Delphic ambiguity of euro leader statements—was taken to mean that the ECB had the green light to act aggressively to support Spanish and Italian bond prices.

The other “institution” expected to step in to the rescue is the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The hope—based on comments from ECB governing council member Ewald Nowothy—is that the ESM is granted a banking license that would enable it to borrow funds far in excess of its current capital.

Of course, it would be downright un-German to fully commit to anything. Following the Draghi announcement, the German Bundesbank reiterated its opposition to additional ECB bond buying or to the issuing of a banking license to the ESM. Sigh…

So we return to the central question: what’s next for Germany? Will Germany commit itself to saving the Eurozone? Or will the country continue to equivocate?

Angela Merkel needs an easy win to keep her disgruntled base happy and to appease the credit rating agencies. And the likely candidate is Greece.

Both the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund have indicated in the past week that they have grown weary of extending Greece a perpetual lifeline. A strong statement from Merkel in favor of cutting Greece off from additional funds might buy Merkel the political points she needs to secure German support for more aggressive ECB action to rescue Spain and Italy.

All of this is conjecture, of course. And the experience of the past two years has taught us to take policy pronouncements from European leaders with a large grain of salt. So for now, all we can do is watch and wait.

 

No related posts.

Fukushima – Local Children Unwitting (and Unwilling) Radioactive Guinea Pigs

By OilPrice.com

Seventeen months after the earthquake and tsunami that destroyed the Tokyo Electric Power Company’s six-reactor complex at its Fukushima Daiichi, discussions continue about the possible effects of the radiation “dusting” the prefecture’s inhabitants received, and their consequences.

Far outside most media coverage, 2012 is shaping up to be the media battleground between the massed proponents of the ongoing ‘safety’ of nuclear power, as opposed to a motley coalition of environmentalists, renegade nuclear scientists and anti-nuclear opponents, largely bereft of media contact.

The 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami double punch that effectively destroyed Tokyo Electric Power Company’s power plant complex has effectively become the newest “ground zero” in the debate over nuclear power. Advocates pro and con debate the implications of everything from the amount of damage to the release of radionuclides to the long term health effects on the Japanese population.

The stakes are high – quite aside from Japan’s multi-billion dollar investment in civilian nuclear energy, dating back to the 1960s, there remains the issues of Fukushima’s radioactive debris polluting neighbours.

All sides in the debate are playing for massive stakes, with the Japanese government and the nuclear industry broadly indicating the issue is under control. Accordingly, every issue from the amount of radiation released to the long term health consequences of the Fukushima disaster are subject to acrimonious debate.

That said, there is an involuntary irradiated “test” Fukushima group monitored since March 2011 displaying disturbing health abnormalities that may ultimately decide the debate, should the global media report it, forcing governments to debate its consequences.

The children of Fukushima.

The issue of nuclear radiation on human health cites besides Fukushima the August 1945 U.S nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the April 1986 explosion of the Chernobyl reactor complex in Ukraine, but in reality, there are no comparisons to evaluate Fukushima.

The 1945 U.S. Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings were weapon “air bursts,” raising no nuclear debris from the ground. Furthermore, the Japanese medical establishment had no experience with the problem and when U.S. military forces arrived over a month later, information about the human cost of the bombings was censored for decades. Showing pictures of destroyed buildings, okay – showing victims with kimono patterns seared into their skin, no.

As for Chernobyl, the 26 April 1986 catastrophe represented a major black eye for Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev’s “glasnost” policy. Thanks to the heroic efforts of Soviet emergency workers, the Chernobyl smoking nuclear roman candle burned for nine days before being extinguished.

In contrast, Fukushima Daiichi has been like a suppurating wound, leaching radionuclides into the environment since March 2011, and since then furious arguments have swirled about not only how much radiation Fukushima released, but the potential long term health consequences.

But both disputes ultimately devolve into pure speculation.

Only two months ago TEPCO stated that the Fukushima debacle may have released twice as much radioactivity than Japan’s government initially estimated.

Accordingly, how can anyone estimate long term health effects when actual exposure rates are unknown?

That said, scientists do have a well defined test group – the population of Fukushima Prefecture surrounding the stricken NPP.

And the sixth report of the Fukushima Prefecture Health Management Survey, which was released in April, revealed after the survey examined 38,114 local children that 36 percent of Fukushima children have abnormal thyroid growths.

The Fukushima Prefecture Health Management Survey revealed that 13,460 children, or 35.3 percent, had thyroid cysts or nodules up to 0.197 inches long growing on their thyroids and 0.5 percent of the children had growths larger than 0.197 inches.

So, why might this be significant? According to the American Thyroid Association (ATA), thyroid problems from nuclear events occur when radioactive iodine is leaked into the atmosphere and thyroid cells that absorb too much of this radioactive iodine may become cancerous, with children being particularly susceptible.

Furthermore, the ATA reports noted that thyroid cancer “seems to be the only cancer whose incidence rises after a radioactive iodine release” and that that babies and children are at highest risk. The estimated lifetime radiation doses among the children are still low, but they do exist, the Japan’s National Institute of Radiological Sciences stated at a10 July international symposium in Chiba Prefecture.

Who cares about such an arcane issue? Well, the National Institute of Radiological Sciences conclusions refute the government’s assertion that Japanese children in effect received zero thyroid radiation doses from Fukushima.

Re Fukushima children’s health, the news just gets better. Two months ago Tokyo Shinbum reported that 60 percent of Fukushima children under 12 have tested positive for diabetes, according to Dr. Miura, the director of Iwase’s general hospital.

Why, possibly?

Because the Strontium-90 radioactive isotope quickly decays to become Yttrium-90, which can concentrate in the pancreas, causing pancreatic cancer or diabetes. That said, while noting the abnormality, Dr. Miura declined to link it to Fukushima radiation exposure.

So, where does the Japanese government go from here?

It might do worse than to follow the advice of Australian pediatrician Dr. Helen Caldicott, who after observing that “It is extremely rare to find cysts and thyroid nodules in children,” added that “you would not expect abnormalities to appear so early – within the first year or so – therefore one can assume that they must have received a high dose of (radiation)” before concluding, “it is impossible to know, from what (Japanese officials) are saying, what these lesions are.”

Calidcott also noted that Japanese officials are not sharing the ultrasound results with foremost experts of thyroid nodules in children before noting, “The data should be made available. And they should be consulting with international experts ASAP. And the lesions on the ultrasounds should all be biopsied and they’re not being biopsied. And if they’re not being biopsied then that’s ultimate medical irresponsibility. Because if some of these children have cancer and they’re not treated they’re going to die.”

Nothing to see here, move along – unless your child is part of that 35.3 percentile.

Still, something for Westerners to think about the next time their government promotes building a nuclear power plant nearby – or if you live close to an existing one.

 

Source: http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Fukushima-Local-Children-Unwitting-and-Unwilling-Radioactive-Guinea-Pigs.html

By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com

 

Technical Analysis for Major Pairs This Week

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The US dollar has been on the retreat for the whole of last week as hopes for solutions in the euro-zone crisis dominated the market. The euro has been on the rise as commodity related currencies rallied. There are several reports expected to be released this week that are expected to change the trend seen last week. Here is a technical analysis for major pairs in foreign exchange market.

EUR/USD: the pair has started on a downward trend but recovered after Draghi made bold statements about the ECB commitment to protecting the euro. The euro/dollar pair fell below the support line of 1.2150 to as low as 1.2043; however, on Draghi’s remarks, the pair rose to close the week under the resistance line at 1.2330. The pair broke out of the weak downward channel and the optimism created will keep the euro supported for much of the week.

GBP/USD: the cross moved up this week as US reported some poor data which are weakening the greenback demand. The pair opened the week at 1.5609 and dropped to 1.5458; however, the pair rose as high as 1.5768 to break the resistance line at 1.5750, even if momentarily before closing the week at 1.5734. The currency has been unable to hold on gains in the past and analysts are expecting the currency to drop during the week.

USD/JPY: the pair reached new lows during the week but rose after Draghi’s comments lowered the demand for safe haven currencies in the market. The cross opened the week lower close to the support line at 78; which held firm. The pair then leaped to 78.68 but could not break it. The cross is expected to rise during the week as BOJ is expected to intervene at some point.

USD/CHF: the pair dropped by almost 150 points last week to close at 0.9742 as the Franc rallied against the greenback. The pair had kicked off the week at a high of 0.9903 and edged higher to 0.9972; however the pair dropped under the 0.97 line and touched 0.9694 as it broke the support line 0.9719 momentarily; the pair the rose to close the week at 0.9742.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Gold Investors “Waiting for Signal”, ECB Could Enter Markets “With Overwhelming Force”

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 30 July 2012, 07:30 EDT

WHOLESALE quoted prices for gold bullion fell below $1620 an ounce during Monday morning’s London session – slightly below last week’s close – while stocks gained and US Treasuries fell, with markets focused on key monetary policy decisions due later in the week.

Silver bullion hovered around $27.70 an ounce – in line with Friday’s close – while other commodities were also broadly flat.

German 2-Year government bond yields hit a new record low this morning, falling further below zero to -0.096% ahead of an auction of Italian 10-Year debt.

German bund yields then climbed higher, although remained in negative territory, after Italy successfully sold just under €5.5 billion of 10-Year bonds at an average yield of 5.96% – down from 6.19% at a similar auction last month.

Last week, benchmark 10-Year yields on Italian bonds rose as high as 6.7%, while Spanish 10-Year yields set a new Euro-era high at 7.75%. German 10-year debt this morning was trading at a yield of less than 1.4%.

“What these extreme Euro government yields are telling us is there’s no single money in the Eurozone,” says Ewen Cameron Watt, chief investment strategist at Blackrock Investment Institute.

“You can’t have a single currency where 50% of the members are paying near zero for funds and 50% are paying more than four or five percent.”

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said last week the ECB will “do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro” and proposes using rescue funds from the European Stability Mechanism to buy distressed government bonds, according to sources cited by newswire Bloomberg.

“Any talks are far from conclusive,” says a note from Citi.

“The ESM package is likely to face opposition from the Bundesbank and would require a complex approval process from European central bankers that would be both politically and technically challenging.”

Under its Securities Markets Programme the ECB intervened in government bond markets last year when it bought the debt of Italian and Spanish governments. Germany’s Bundesbank however reiterated its opposition on Friday to reactivating the SMP.

“[Draghi has] put his personal credibility on the line,” says Erik Nielsen, London-based global chief economist at Italian bank UniCredit.

“[He] would not have done so without being confident about his key constituency…the ECB under Draghi does not like to mess around in the market, but if it sees a need, it will come with overwhelming force.”

“We have reached a decisive point,” says Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who is also head of the Eurogroup of single currency finance ministers, in an interview published by a German newspaper today.

“We have to make abundantly clear with all available resources that we’re completely determined to guarantee the financial stability of the currency.”

The ECB, which last month cut its key policy interest rate to a new record low at 0.75%, is due to announce its latest monetary policy on Thursday, the same day as the Bank of England decision.

A day earlier on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce whether it has decided any changes to US Federal Reserve policy.

“For gold investors it is not only Euro policy uncertainty that has created headwinds for the yellow metal,” says Citi, “but also ongoing uncertainty regarding the possibility of QE3 [a third round of Fed quantitative easing].”

On the gold futures and options markets, the difference between bullish and bearish positions held by noncommercial Comex traders – known as the speculative net long – fell 15% in the week to last Tuesday, figures published late Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

“This week’s change was largely the result of a massive unwinding of longs,” says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.

“We maintain that overall positioning in gold remains weak, and we are skeptical about the sustainability of any gold rallies over the short term, especially as it appears that QE hopes are once again raised ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.”

“Investors are playing the waiting game, looking for the signal to get back in,” adds a note from UBS.

The world’s biggest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), saw further net outflows on Friday, taking the total tonnage of gold bullion held by the GLD to 1248.6 tonnes – its lowest level since early November.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

Central Bank News Link List – July 30, 2012

By Central Bank News

    Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list is updated during the day with the latest news about central banks so readers don’t miss any important developments.

Major Events in Forex Market This Week

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The greenback has retreated against major currencies around the world as the market’s hopes of super solution in Europe were ignited by Draghi’s comments. Here is a preview of major events expected to shape market sentiments this week.

Tuesday 31

At 1230hrs GMT, the Canadian GDP report will be released showing economic growth for the second quarter. The Canadian economy increased by 0.3 percent in April which was more than the market expectation of 0.2 percent. The growth was attributed to recovery in crude oil, mining, transportation and wholesale. There is an expectation of 0.2 percent growth for the second quarter.

Another report expected to catch the attention of analysts as well as investors on this day is the US CB Consumer confidence data, which will be released at 1400hrs GMT. The June reading for consumer confidence showed a waning trend coming in at 62.0 against a market expectation of 63.8, which was well below May figure of 64.4. The reading was also the lowest since January this year. The market expects a further drop of 0.5 to 61.5 points.

Wednesday 1

The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report will be released at 1215hrs GMT. The report has projected an additional of 176,000 jobs in June which was well above the official data of 80,000 released by the Labor Department at the end of the week. This time the market expects the report show an increment of 122, 000 jobs for July. Another report from the US is the ISM Manufacturing PMI which will be released at 1400hrs GMT. The market expects an expansion to 50.4 this time round up from the 49.7 reported in the previous reading. The final report on this day will be the US FOMC Statement which will be released at 1815hrs GMT. The market will be looking for hints on the next set of measures that will be used by the Fed.

Thursday 2

The UK and the Euro-zone rate decisions will be announced on this day at 1100hrs and 1145hrs respectively. There are mixed feelings about the BOE doing more qualitative easing, as the economy has shown signs of deterioration but the onetime events such the Olympics Games and the Jubilee might deter the BOE from acting. In euro zone, the market will expect to see the big moves promised by Mario Draghi, the ECB President last week. If the ECB fails to impress, the euro will plunge. The other major event on this day will be the US Unemployment Claims report which will be released at 1230hrs GMT. The figure is expected to increase to 375k.

Friday 3

The market will receive the official US Non-Farm Employment change which will be released by the Department of Labor at 1230hrs GMT. Most analysts expect that a gain of 100,000 jobs this time round. The Unemployment Rate which will also be announced at the same time is expected to tick higher to 8.3 percent or remain unchanged at 8.2 percent. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report will be released at 1400hrs GMT where an improvement to 52.2 is forecasted.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox