The EUR Maintains its Bearish Tone

Source: ForexYard


The European currency retreated from gains made earlier in the week against its major counterparts. Against the USD it was down about 2% at $1.2889, after hitting a session low of $1.2875, and versus the Japanese currency, the EUR was down over 2% at 115.18 Yen. The EUR currency slipped on comments by European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet, who said that the ECB could cut key Euro-Zone Interest Rates below the current 2%, in addition to more unconventional measures.

The weak economic figures which came out of the Euro-Zone reversed any significant gains that the EUR made against the Dollar in recent days. The underlining weakness in the European economy was data showing that German unemployment posted its biggest increase in nearly four years in January. In addition, the European Commission said its index of executive and consumer sentiment declined to a record in January.

The index fell to 68.9, the lowest level since it was started in 1985. Analysts say that for many investors, the strategy appears to be simple: to avoid risk; which means funds are flowing out of the EUR and back into the Dollar and the Yen. The slowing economic growth of the Euro-Zone has prompted investors to repatriate funds from higher-yielding assets that might cause the EUR to decline further.

The EUR will likely to extend its downtrend into the middle of the next trading week as the Unemployment rate in the Euro-Zone raised in December to 8.0% its highest level since November 2006 and above the market’s forecast. Economists say that this data demonstrates just how strong disinflation pressures are in Europe and it will likely put more pressure on the European Central Bank to have further easing.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Forex Trading Japan: Economy May Shrink by 0.8% in 2009

Source: ForexYard


Japan’s Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said that the county’s economy may shrink by as much as 0.8% if economic woes continue at the current pace. According to Yosano, the only way to tackle the recession is by the government introducing a radical economic stimulus injection into the Japanese economy.

The country’s Tankan Survey reported that manufacturers in the world’s second-largest economy fell by their highest amount since 1974. Thus this in effect reveals that Japan is in her first recession since 2001.

One of the reasons for the decline in Japan’s economy is the strong Yen, which is about 25% stronger against the U.S. Dollar since the beginning of 2008. The main sector that has been hit is the manufacturing industry, which is significant as it makes up a large percentage of Japan’s economy. Additionally, Japan’s economy relies on exports of its manufactured goods. Things have deteriorated so much in Japan as of late, Honda, Japan’s major automaker cut it forecasted profits by over 60% this week.

Things are likely to remain volatile as Japan cut its Interest Rates to 0.1% earlier today in response to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s slash in its rates to 0.25%. The JPY is up about 70 pips against the USD since today’s market opened, and currently stands at around the 88.55 level. In the medium-turn, the Japanese rate cut may stabilize the Yen versus the Dollar. However, it is unlikely that the Dollar will make a dramatic recovery, and make gains to the levels it was a year ago.

Looking ahead to 2009, the Yen is likely to remain strong against the USD, and the Dollar may only recover to pre-2009 levels once the U.S. economy recuperates from the recession in the future. Additionally, Japan’s economy is likely to continue its deterioration into the 3rd quarter of 2009.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Gold Gets “Shot in the Arm” from Europe, But H1 2012 Numbers Show Gold “Has Taken a Breather”

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
Friday 29 June 2012, 08:00 EDT

SPOT MARKET gold prices hit $1584 an ounce ahead of Friday’s US trading – a 2.3% rise from the previous day’s low – while stocks, commodities and the Euro also rallied following news of an “important” agreement at the European Union summit in Brussels.

Silver prices climbed to $27.38 by lunchtime in London – a 4.6% gain on yesterday’s low.

“Resistance [for gold prices] is at the top of the past week’s range in the $1587-88 area,” says technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, who add that further resistance is seen at $1625.

News of an agreement among European leaders on the use of bailout funds “”has been positive for the Euro and positive for confidence in general,” adds Scotia’s head of precious metals Simon Weeks.

“[This] means that equities and commodities, including gold for the time being, have all received a shot in the arm.”

European leaders meeting in Brussels have asked the European Council to consider proposals for the creation of a single Eurozone banking supervisor “as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012”, an summit statement issued early on Friday said.

The creation of a supervisory body could then be followed by allowing money from bailout funds to directly recapitalize banks, rather than being loaned to governments for that purpose, the statement continued.

“We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns,” said the statement from the EU summit, which continued Friday.

European leaders also confirmed that assistance given by the European Financial Stability Facility to Spain’s government – up to €100 billion to fund banking sector restructuring – will transfer to the permanent bailout fund the European Stability mechanism when it becomes operational next month.

The loans will transfer to the ESM “without gaining seniority status” over other Spanish government bonds.

The statement also included a commitment to use “existing EFSF/ESM instruments in a flexible and efficient manner in order to stabilize markets”.

“We have taken important decisions last night,” said German chancellor Angela Merkel, who prior to the summit expressed opposition to using bailout fund to buy bonds.

“We agreed that if countries need the instruments to buy bonds on the primary or secondary market from the EFSF or ESM then…conditionality would apply.”

A country report would need to be presented and a memorandum of understanding drawn up, Merkel added.

“That would be the case if Spain or Italy, with regards to their interest burden, make use of such instruments.”

Benchmark yields on Spanish 10-Year government bonds fell as low as 6.4% this morning, their lowest level this week. Italian 10-Year yields traded as low as 5.8%, also a weekly low.

“While not unwelcome, we do not see [the summit agreement] as a game changer,” says a note from Societe Generale.

“We remain concerned that the EFSF/ESM will be seen as lacking in both efficiency and size to offer credible support to Spain and/or Italy if requested. Attention is thus likely to turn again to the European Central Bank.”

European stock markets rallied this morning, with Germany’s DAX up around 2.5% by lunchtime, though it remained 1.6% off last week’s high. Spain’s IBEX index was up 2.7%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 3.3%, although both indexes remained below June highs.

The Euro jumped 1.3% to $1.26 following the release of the summit statement, pushing Euro gold prices briefly below €40,000 per ounce Friday morning.

Based on London Fix prices, the gold price in Euros looked set by Friday lunchtime in London to end the second quarter of this year more or less where it began it. On a year-to-date basis, gold in Euros was heading for a 3.3% gain over the first half of the year. The Euro itself has lost around 3% against the Dollar during H1 2012.

Sterling gold prices by contrast looked set for a 0.8% H1 2012 loss, and a 2.8% loss over the second quarter. Gold prices in Dollars meantime were up slightly on where they started the year, but were sitting on a 4.9% quarterly loss by lunchtime in London, having given up gains made in the first three months of the year.

A PM London Gold Fix below $1581 per ounce would see gold record its largest quarterly loss since Q2 2004 – while a fix below $1553 would mark the worst quarterly performance this century.

“After 11 years [of gains] it is only natural that gold stops and pauses for breath before taking the next step higher,” says Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank.

“The worry is obviously that momentum has been completely lost and leveraged players (such a hedge funds) have left the building…they will come back, but the market needs to reassert itself before that happens, as they are more followers than instigators of trends.”

Over in India meantime, Rupee gold prices fell to a two-week low Friday, as the Rupee gained against the Dollar, newswire Reuters reports.

“There was demand yesterday evening,” says Ketan Shroff, director at Pushpak Bullion in Mumbai.
“If prices are maintained at this level, we can see some buying.”

Gold demand in India, traditionally the world’s biggest market, was down 29% for the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period last year. The Rupee has fallen around 25% against the Dollar over the last 12 months – while India’s government has twice raised its import duties on gold bullion since the start of 2012.

Ben Traynor

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


Central Bank News Link List – June 29, 2012

By Central Bank News
    Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list is updated during the day with the latest news about central banks so readers don’t miss any important developments.

UK banks should boost capital during EU crises – BOE

By Central Bank News

    UK banks should continue to limit dividends and executive compensation and instead use the funds to boost their capital cushion to absorb any possible losses during the current risk to financial stability from the crises in the euro area, the governor of the Bank of England said.
    In his prepared remarks for a press conference, Mervyn King said the cushion that banks should build up may even be larger than the current planned increase toward meeting the tougher Basel III capital requirements.
    “The Committee continues to believe that there is a need for banks temporarily to raise their levels of capital, in view of the exceptional threats they currently face,” King said presenting the bank’s Financial Stability Report.

    That additional capital cushion should be used in the event that losses actually occur so banks don’t end up cutting back lending to consumers and businesses to cover the losses.
    “At that point, or if the current risks recede, banks’ capital ratios could then fall back to the official transition path to the Basel III standards,” King said, rejecting arguments that increasing the capital cushion would limit banks’ capacity to lend.
    “More capital and more lending go together,” King said. “Moreover, in the event that large losses are realised as a result of the euro-area crisis, it is vital that our banks are sufficiently well capitalised to be able to continue to provide the services on which we all rely.”
    UK banks have been building up their liquidity buffers in recent years and they are now above official guidance levels. In addition, the banks can access liquid funds through the bank, specifically through the BOE’s recently-extended extended repo facility and its discount window, King said.
    “That has put banks in a strong position to withstand a period of market stress. But it is important that banks are willing to make use of their liquid asset buffers in times of stress, in order to support lending to the real economy,” King said
    The Financial Stability Report was prepared by the BOE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC), set up last year to reduce systemic risks to the UK financial system. The creation of the FPC was part of the UK’s wholesale reform of financial regulation, which gave  power to the bank’s FPC to address overall financial stability. It also set up a new Prudential Regulatory Authority at the BOE that would focus on systemically-important financial institutions.

Italian Bond Auction Leads to EUR Losses

Source: ForexYard

The euro tumbled to a three-week low against both the US dollar and Japanese yen yesterday, following an Italian bond auction and general pessimism regarding an EU summit. While crude oil saw gains early in the day, the commodity turned bearish during mid-day trading as investors shifted their funds away from riskier assets. Turning to today, traders will want to continue monitoring any developments out of the EU summit. Should euro-zone leaders finish out the week without agreeing to any new strategies to combat the debt crisis, the euro could see additional losses.

Economic News

USD – Risk Aversion Leads to Broad Dollar Gains

The dollar was able to benefit from risk aversion in the marketplace to make gains across the board yesterday. Investor concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis were largely responsible for the gains made by safe-haven assets. The GBP/USD fell over 100 pips during the European session, eventually reaching as low as 1.5506 before staging a very mild upward correction. Against the aussie, the dollar advanced around 95 pips over the course of the day. The AUD/USD eventually fell to the 1.0025 level before staging a slight recovery and stabilizing at 1.0040.

As we close out the week, analysts are predicting that the greenback could extend its bullish trend as long as EU leaders fail to come to a consensus regarding the best way to combat the euro-zone debt crisis. That being said, should European leaders successfully come up with new ways to stimulate economic growth during today’s EU summit, investors could shift their funds back to riskier assets, which may lead to losses for the USD.

EUR – EUR Drops to 3-Week Low vs. USD, JPY

Differences of opinion between European leaders on the best way to combat the euro-zone debt crisis led to broad losses for the euro throughout the day yesterday. The common currency fell to a three-week low against the USD, eventually reaching 1.2406 before bouncing back to the 1.2430 level. The EUR/JPY also dropped to its lowest level in three-weeks, reaching as low as 98.31 during early morning trading. The pair eventually staged a slight upward correction to stabilize at the 98.60 level.

Turning to today, traders will want to continue monitoring any developments out of the EU summit. While analysts remain doubtful that euro-zone leaders will be able to reach any kind of agreement regarding how to stimulate economic growth in the region, traders should note that if any breakthroughs do occur, the euro could see upward movement to close out the week. That being said, with borrowing costs steadily rising in both Italy and Spain, any euro gains may turn out to be temporary.

JPY – Safe-Haven Yen Extends Gains

The yen was able to benefit from economic turmoil in the euro-zone yesterday, as investor fears regarding rising borrowing costs in Spain and Italy resulted in risk aversion in the marketplace. The CHF/JPY fell close to 80 pips over the course of the day, eventually reaching as low as 81.84 before staging a slight upward correction. The AUD/JPY dropped over 90 pips to reach as low as 79.40 by the end of European trading.

As markets get ready to close for the week, analysts are forecasting that recent lack of positive developments in the euro-zone may lead to further gains for the safe-haven yen today. That being said, should EU leaders successfully reach an agreement today on how to help boost debt stricken economies in the euro-zone today, the JPY could reverse some of its gains.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Takes Heavy Losses

The price of crude oil tumbled during afternoon trading yesterday, as fears regarding the euro-zone debt crisis caused investors to abandon their positions in higher yielding assets. After peaking at $80.81 a barrel during the afternoon session, crude fell as low as $78.20 by the end of the European session.

Turning to today, oil traders will want to continue monitoring any developments out of the EU. In addition to the EU summit, which is widely expected to not produce any meaningful solutions to the region’s debt crisis, negative announcements out of Italy and Spain have the potential to bring the price of oil down further before markets close for the week.

Technical News


A bearish cross on the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA indicates that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the same chart, which has dropped into oversold territory. Going long may be a wise choice for this pair.


Most long-term technical indicators show this pair range-trading, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. That being said, the Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is slowly drifting into oversold territory. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator, as it may signal an impending upward correction.


Long-term technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no defined trend can be determined at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.


The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has drifted into overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the coming days. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the same chart, which is currently approaching the 70 level. Going short may be a wise choice.

The Wild Card


The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are narrowing, indicating that a price shift could occur in the near future. Additionally, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart is currently forming a bearish cross, signaling that the price shift could be downward. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.


Two Stock Market Buy Signals You Shouldn’t Ignore

Article by Investment U

There are a number of signals that bode well for price appreciation with individual stocks: growing market share, rising sales, strong earnings growth and improving margins…

But you shouldn’t overlook another excellent indicator: share buybacks.

According to Standard & Poor’s, U.S. public companies spent at least $437 billion last year buying their own shares back. That was 46% more than in 2010.

Is this a good thing? Absolutely…

Regardless of whether you’re an individual or a corporation, sitting on cash isn’t terribly rewarding these days with the average money market fund paying five one-hundredths of 1%. And if the outlook is uncertain, a business owner doesn’t want to commit to building new facilities or taking on employees that aren’t needed. Nor is it necessarily in the best interest of shareholders to distribute this cash in the form of taxable dividends.

So buying back shares often makes good sense. Why? Because when you divide net income into a smaller number of shares outstanding, you get greater growth in earnings per share. And, ultimately, that’s what drives share prices higher.

Of course, stock buybacks boost earnings per share only if they’re larger than stock issuance. Historically, that hasn’t always been the case. (Much executive compensation today comes in the form of stock options that have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.)

But in recent quarters, the supply of shares outstanding has been shrinking. And, according to analyst Howard Silverblatt at Standard & Poor’s, during the current earnings season, 97 of the S&P 500 enjoyed a boost to earnings per share of at least 4% from repurchases alone.

More Buybacks Ahead

Expect to see more of these buyback announcements in the weeks ahead. Why? Because U.S. corporations are sitting on more than $2 trillion in cash. That’s enough to buy all of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and IBM (NYSE: IBM).

There are some caveats, however. Some companies announce their intention to buy back shares and then don’t follow through. If business conditions change, interest rates rise, or cash flow decreases, a repurchase program may never get completed.

The other thing to watch is the exercise of stock options, as mentioned above. If a company is only buying back enough shares to offset the dilution that occurs when executives exercise stock options, you won’t see the buyback boost earnings per share.

But, generally speaking, share repurchase programs are a decided positive. And right now, with money cheap and corporate earnings strong, buybacks are occurring at record levels. Cash-rich companies in the midst of major share buybacks right now include Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) and Juniper Networks (NYSE: JNPR).

Having Your Cake and Eating it, Too…

Of course, some analysts would rather see corporate executives buying shares with their own money rather than the company’s money. And I don’t disagree…

But sometimes you can have your cake and eat it, too. In a recent study, stocks that were subject to repurchases but not insider buying beat other stocks by nearly nine percentage points over four years. But stocks that were the subject of both repurchases and insider buying beat others by a whopping 29 points over four years.

Which companies have enjoyed share buybacks and insider buying recently? Two of them are CACI International (NYSE: CACI) and Crawford and Company (NYSE: CRD-A).

These are the kind of companies that should handily outperform the market in the months ahead.

Good Investing,

Alexander Green

Article by Investment U

The Hard Lesson of a Stock Trader: No Pain, No Gain


One peril of investing – and especially stock trading – is an unexpected event.

Former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would call it an ‘unknown unknown’.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb would call it a ‘Black Swan’ event.

And our in-house technical analyst, stock trader Murray Dawes would call it an ‘oh crap’ moment…or words similar.

The trouble is, the more that unexpected events happen, the more people expect them to happen. This tends to reduce their impact.

It’s why one stock trader is calm about the chances of another government or central bank stimulus boost. Which is surprising, seeing as four years ago the mother of all stimulus boosts cost him over a hundred grand, and a million-dollar payday…

European Union (EU) leaders are currently half way through a two-day meeting to try and fix the mess in Europe.

Leading up to the event, markets have risen and fallen depending on how confident investors are of the EU fixing the problem.

With the German DAX Index down 1.8% since last Friday’s close, it seems that for the most part, investors aren’t confident at all.

But that won’t stop the EU trying. Overnight, the leaders (or busy-bodies as we prefer to call them) released the first part of their cunning plan to spur growth.

Chief busy-body, EU President, Herman Van Rompuy told reporters, ‘The growth agenda is a sign of our unrelenting commitment.’

That’s good to know.

So, what is the first part of the EU’s plan?

According to Bloomberg News:

‘European Union leaders approved a 120 billion-euro ($149 billion) plan to promote growth in the 27-nation bloc that includes a capital boost for the European Investment Bank.

‘The government chiefs agreed on a 10 billion-euro capital increase for the EIB today as a centrepiece of the long-term growth plan, which includes infrastructure financing, tax-policy pledges and more focused use of EU funding. It also calls for project bonds and support of small and medium-sized businesses…

‘The Luxembourg-based EIB could use its capital infusion to increase its lending capacity by 60 billion euros and unlock 180 billion euros of additional investment, according to EU estimates.’

We won’t pretend to understand exactly how this new plan will work. But we already smell a rat. The EU will give the EIB 10 billion euros. This will ‘increase its lending capacity by 60 billion euros and unlock 180 billion euros of additional investment…’

Call us cynical, but it has all the hallmarks of a leveraged debt play. The same as the leveraged debt plays that have gotten Europe to where it is now. Borrowing from the future to pay for today’s growth.

Seen It All Before

That aside, let’s put the EU’s total 120 billion euro package in perspective. The plan is to spend or invest this money over three years from 2013 to 2015.

That works out as 40 billion euros a year…a lot of money. But not that much. Not when you consider that the GDP for the EU is 12.6 trillion euros.

In other words, it accounts for just 0.3% of annual GDP. Even if you include the leveraged position from the EIB, you’re still looking at the package contributing less than 1% of GDP.

So it means nothing.

That’s the problem with so-called ‘shock and awe’ tactics. They worked (in that they boosted the market, not that they were economically effective) in 2008 because they were a genuine ‘unknown unknown’, ‘Black Swan’ and ‘oh crap’ events.

But now, well, we’ve seen it all before.

The Million Dollar Miss of a Stock Market Trader

This brings us back to the stock trader who missed out on a million-dollar payday. His name is Murray Dawes, and he is our in-house technical trading guru.

For Murray, it’s a painful story. But even though he may not admit it, it’s one of those experiences any stock trader, sportsperson or entrepreneur needs if they want to taste real success.

A sportsman or woman can’t truly appreciate the joy of victory without first losing a championship game at the final whistle.

An entrepreneur can’t appreciate their billion-dollar idea without seeing other ideas crash and burn first.

And if a stock market trader wants to build a successful trading business, he or she needs to take a hit (a big hit) to the hip-pocket first.

That’s what happened to Murray in 2008. And the good news for Murray’s stock traders is that he has taken the pain on their behalf. They can learn the lessons Murray has learned without going through what he did in 2008…

He told everyone who attended the Daily Reckoning ‘Doomers’ Ball’ last November about it. But we asked Murray to (painfully) jot down the sequence of events for you to read this morning. Here’s how it panned out:

‘I was long 30 September 2008 emini S+P 500 1200 puts (Expiry on 19th September). Lehman collapsed on the 15th September.

‘On 17th September I bought 15 emini S+P 500 futures at 1160 to hedge my position. I.e. The whole position was US$60,000 in the money ($75,000 AUD – the exchange rate was about .80c then).

‘So I had locked in a little less than AUD$40,000 less the price of the options.

‘At 3am on the night before expiry, the market was getting hammered from the open and I thought the market could crash. So I exited my hedge (at a small loss of about 10-15 points) and let the whole 30 options run for the last night. When I went to bed the futures were trading below 1140 so I was up over AUD$100,000 at this point and thought I was home and hosed whatever happened from there.

‘While I was asleep the US government announced TARP 1 and the market opened the next day 14% higher than where it was when I went to bed. If I had kept the hedge on I would have been up over AUD$100,000 on the hedge alone. Instead my options expired worthless. Two months later when the S+P 500 fell to 741 the same position was worth USD$688,000 or over AUD$1,000,000 because the Aussie dollar had fallen to 64c by this stage.’

If you’re not into futures and options trading some of the jargon may be lost on you, but we didn’t want to change Murray’s words because the story he tells is one of experience.

Besides, if you’re in any doubt what this trade and the stimulus boost meant to him, just read the last two paragraphs…everything should be clear to you from that.

But that was 2008. The USD$700 billion TARP bailout was huge. It was unprecedented. No-one in their right mind could have predicted the size nor the impact it would have on the stock market.

It was an ‘unknown unknown’.

It was a ‘Black Swan’.

It was an ‘oh crap’ moment.

But with so many bailouts and stimulus programs over the past four years, each one has had less impact on the stock market.

As a Stock Trader or Investor You Must Take Risks

Last week, the US Federal Reserve announced an expansion of the ‘Operation Twist‘ bond program. The impact on markets? Nothing. The US S&P 500 has barely changed since then.

And last night’s news of the EU forming a growth pact to spend 40 billion euros a year? No-one cares. The Australian stock market is down and US stock futures are virtually unchanged from the close.

It’s for this reason that Murray is happy to have a number of short trades on the Aussie market – eight at the last count, with a few long positions to hedge the portfolio if the market does go up.

Of course, there’s always the chance of a bolt out of the blue. That governments and central bankers will do something most rational people couldn’t possibly expect.

But that’s part of the risk when you invest. It’s about balancing probabilities and managing your risk. The alternative is to do nothing, which in itself is an investment strategy…just not a very good one.

With interest rates plunging to multi-decade lows, investors have no choice but to take risks. The only question is what risks should you take?

As it happens, our technical stock trading analyst Murray, has a few ideas on the subject here…


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USDCHF’s upward movement extends to 0.9678

USDCHF’s upward movement from 0.9421 extends to as high as 0.9678. Support is now located at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line support holds, uptrend could be expected to continue, and further rise towards 0.9769 previous high is still possible. On the downside, a clear break below the trend line will indicate that a cycle top has been formed, and consolidation of the uptrend is underway, then pullback to 0.9500 area could be seen.


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