Archive for Technical Analysis

Tech Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT, July 18, 2018

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

In EURUSD, the major trend is descending; today, 1.1575 may be reached, which is just a half of the whole falling potential. The local target is at 1.1420.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD

The GPB/USD continues falling; today, it may reach 1.3000, but then a pullback to 1.3150 might occur. After that, the pair is likely to head down again, reaching 1.2950.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF

The USD/CHF continues uptrending. Today, it may go ahead to reach $1.0120, and then fall till 1.0000. After that, it may rise back to $1.0200 again.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY

The USD/JPY has broken out the consolidation range, bottom up. This may lead to a rise towards 113.40. All rising patterns are, however, temporary, as the price may head down to form another fall any time, first target being at 110.10.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD

The AUD is trading within Wave 5 against the greenback, and is going to fall at least to 0.7285. Today, the price may fall to 0.7314, and then rise to 0.7377, after which the pair will try to reach its major target.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB

The USD/RUB reached 62.55, but then pulled back. It may now take another attempt to rise till 62.62, but then is likely to fall till 61.61. Once this price is broken out, the local target at 60.60 may also be achieved.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GOLD

The gold has broken out the consolidation range top down. This may lead to a fall towards $1,218, but then a rise to 1,242 is possible. Still, the downward movement may extend to $1,205.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent crude is trading within a consolidation range near $71.80. Today, the black gold may fall to $68.22, bet then recover again till $71.80. After that, the crude is likely to head down again, reaching 68.00. This is basically a 5-wave correction flag, which, when fully formed, may push the price higher to $82.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex market review (18/07/18)

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

Yesterday evening, the US dollar got a boost from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, causing it to rise. The Fed Chair, citing solid economic growth and improving employment situation, made the case for continuing with the process of tightening monetary policy.

The way I see it, the following economic events could have an impact on currency exchange rates today:

  • 11:30 (GMT+3) UK: CPI (Jun) – consumer prices are expected to a rise of 2.6% year-on-year.
  • 12:00 (GMT+3) Eurozone: CPI (Jun) – year-on-year consumer inflation is expected to rise by 2.0%.
  • 17:00 (GMT+3) USA: Fed’s Powell speech.
  • 21:00 (GMT+3) USA: Fed’s beige book.

EURUSD:

On the 4-hour timeframe (H4), the EURUSD pair is forming the fifth wave inside the wedge (descending triangle):

At the time of writing, the EURUSD pair is moving towards the lower line of the wedge, which is located at around 1.1530.

On the hourly timeframe (H1), I believe that there’s potential for the beginning of a downwards trend:

I reckon that barring any unforeseen circumstances, the EURUSD pair could drop as far as 1.1550.

The pair is currently trading at 1.16343; about 80 pips lower than yesterday morning.

AUD/USD Bearish Triangle Breakout

By Admiral Markets

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on

As we could have seen in the previous AUD/USD analyses, the price followed the bearish setup and at this point it is making a breakout. The bearish triangle breakout zone is 0.7390-0.7405 and this is the POC for short trades. A 4h close below 0.7350 should initiate a continuation move towards 0.7524 and 0.7298. Selling on rallies is the valid option.

W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: AUD/USD Bearish Triangle Breakout


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

5 Statistics For Analyzing Your Trading Performance

By Vic Patel, Forex Training Group

There are many different ways that a trader can measure success in the markets. But some methods are a bit better than others when it comes to evaluating trading performance. In this article, we will discuss 5 key statistics that will give you an objective means by which to assess your trading strategy or system.

Risk Adjusted Returns

If you ask most amateur traders what the most important metric is when it comes to trading performance, they will typically respond by saying that the total return or percentage gain is the most important factor. But if you pose the same question to a professional trader, they will usually respond by saying that the risk adjusted return or gain is the most important factor.

Did you catch the difference? The amateur trader is most concerned with absolute returns while the professional trader understands that absolute returns are meaningless and should be measured against risk. And so, they always prefer risk adjusted performance measures.

This is an important concept that novice traders should learn sooner than later. Understanding that your overall return as a gauge of trading performance measured in a vacuum without taking into account risk is quite naive and can sometime provide a false sense of security. In the following sections, we will take a look at 5 ways you can measure your trading performance like a professional – based on a risk adjusted basis.

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe Ratio is one of the more well-known measures of risk adjusted returns. It was introduced by William Sharpe of Stanford University in the mid 1960’s. Essentially, the Sharpe ratio describes how much excess return you receive over the risk-free rate by taking into account the additional volatility that you incur by holding a risky asset. Typically, the 90 day US T-Bill rate is taken as the risk-free rate of return.

The calculation of the Sharpe ratio involves calculating the expect return on your account and then deducting the risk-free rate of return from that. Afterwards you would divide the resulting amount by the standard deviation within the trading account.

Let’s take an example assuming a risk-free return of 4%:

Assuming that within your trading account you are able to achieve a return of 24%, and the standard deviation of your return is 10%, then your Sharpe Ratio would be calculated as follows:

24% (Return Achieved) – 4% (Risk Free Return = 20%

20% / 10% (Standard Deviation) = 2

Sharpe Ratio = 2

In this case, your Shape Ratio would be 2. Typically, a Sharpe ratio of 1.50 and higher is considered a good risk adjusted trading performance.

Sortino Ratio

One of the biggest drawbacks for the Sharpe Ratio is that it does not distinguish between upside volatility and downside volatility, meaning that it penalizes both negative volatility from losing trades, as well as positive volatility occurring from winning trades.

Some trading strategies, especially trend following strategies are prone to a having a lower win percentage, but the average winning trades can be many multiples of the average losing trades. When we are evaluating trading performance for this type of system or strategy, the Shape ratio does not provide the best reflection of trading performance.

The Sortino Ratio aims to address this inherent flaw with in the Sharpe Ratio. The Sortino Ratio uses the same calculation as the Shape Ratio but with one important difference. The Sortino ratio only takes into consideration the downside volatility of the negative returns and does not consider the upside volatility of the positive returns. This creates a better more accurate risk adjusted measure of trading performance. As with the Shape Ratio, the higher the number the better the risk adjusted trading performance. A Sortino ratio of 1.50 and higher is considered good.

Calmer Ratio

The Calmer Ratio is one of my favorite trading performance metrics. It is the one that I tend to put the most amount of weight into when evaluating my own trading performance as well as when I am evaluating the performance of CTAs and Hedge funds.

The Calmer Ratio is calculated by taking the average annual compound rate of return and then dividing that by the maximum drawdown incurred over the same time horizon, typically 3 years. If, however, 3 years of data is not available, then you would simply use the maximum amount of time that data is available for your trading strategy.

Let’s take an example:

If you have been trading for 3 years using a particular trading strategy, and the average annual compound rate of return  that your strategy has achieved over this period is 36%, and the maximum drawdown that you have experienced during the same periodic is 20%, then your Calmer ratio would simply be calculation as:

36% (3 Year Avg. Return)  / 20% ( 3 Year Max DD )

= 1.80 Calmer Ratio

The higher the Calmer ratio the better the risk adjusted return. Usually you want to have at least a 0.50 Calmer ratio in your trading program. Anything over 1 is considered a pretty healthy risk adjusted return.

Profit Factor

One of the simplest measures of trading performance is a metric called Profit Factor. Though it is simple enough for any trader to understand and utilize, it is one of the most effective ways to quickly gauge your trading performance. So how it is calculated?

Profit Factor is determined by taking your gross profits and dividing it by the gross losses. That’s all there is to it. So, let’s say that you want to evaluate your trading performance based on Profit Factor over the course of the last one year period. Here’s how you would do it.

You go back into your records and find that your total gross profits for your trading strategy was $ 82,000 and your total gross losses for the same period was $ 51.000. Based on this, you can figure out what your Profit Factor was. You simply divide your gross profit of $ 82,000 by your gross loss of $ 51,000 to arrive at a Profit factor of 1.60. Generally, a profit factor above 1.25 is acceptable, and anything above 1.75 is considered very good.

Profit Factor is one trading strategy metric that every trader should know. It is easy to understand and calculate, and it provides a quick and valuable snapshot into the efficiency of your trading performance.

Gain to Pain Ratio

The Gain to Pain Ratio was popularized by Jack Schwager and introduced in his book “Hedge Fund Market Wizards”.  It is a risk adjusted performance metric that is somewhat similar to Profit Factor but with a bit of a twist.

The Gain to Pain ratio is computed by taking the sum of all monthly returns and dividing that by the absolute value of the sum all monthly losses. Let’s take a look at an example.

Let’s assume that over a course of one year, the sum total of all your total monthly returns equals 40%. And let’s say that you have 4 losing months within that 12 month period where you lost 5%, 3%,7%, and 4%. The absolute value of the sum of these four monthly losses is 19%. Based on this we would divide 40% by 19% to arrive at 2.10, which would be the Gain to Pain Ratio for your trading strategy over the last one year period.

A Gain to Pain ratio above 1.25 is considered good, and a value over 2 is very good.

Summary

So now you should be more familiar with risk adjusted returns, and understand why using this type of trading performance metric is important when evaluating your own trading results. You don’t necessarily need to memorize or refer to each one that we have mentioned thus far, but you should pick at least one or two that you are comfortable and use that as your go performance metric.

This is a guest post by Vic Patel of Forex Training Group, a trading education blog that provides in-depth analysis related to the currency markets.

 

Fibo Analysis for EUR/USD and USD/JPY: July 17, 2018

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR/USD

On H4, the EURUSD is rising again after the correction, with the local target at 1.1790. Once this high is reached, the price may move to the post correctional range within 138.2% and 161.8% Fibo, or 1.1857-1.1900. The current move is supported by 1.1627.

EURUSD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On H1, one can see the new EURUSD uptrend is currently just a piece of correction with respect to the previous downtrend that ended with convergence. This correctional uptrend has reach the 61.8% Fibo level, with the next target being at 76.0% (1.1747).

EURUSD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USD/JPY

On H4, USDJPY is continuing to ascend. The price has reached 111.39 and is very close to the post correctional range between 138.2% and 161.8% Fibo, or 112.67 and 113.46.

USDJPY1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Meanwhile, H1 charts show a pullback has started after the divergence. This pullback has already reached the 23.6% Fibo level, the next levels may lie at 38.2%, or 111.85, and at 50.0%, or 111.56.

USDJPY2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2018.07.17

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

  • Prev Open: 1.16905
  • Open: 1.17101
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.26
  • Day’s range: 1.17096 – 1.17151
  • 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

During yesterday’s trading session the bullish sentiment was observed on the EUR/USD currency pair. Yesterday, a report on the volume of retail sales in the US for June was published, which met the expectations of investors and amounted to 0.5%. At the moment, EUR/USD is still rising. The key levels of support and resistance are 1.17100 and 1.17400 respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks. The trading instrument is tending potentially to grow.

The news feed on 2018.07.17:

  • – The average wage level in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the Fed’s head.

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

Trading recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.17100, 1.16800, 1.16400
  • Resistance levels: 1.17400, 1.17800

If the price fixes below the already “mirror” support of 1.17100, a technical correction of the EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.16800-1.16600.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above 1.17400, we recommend you opening long positions. The target level of movement is 1.17800-1.18000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

  • Prev Open: 1.32166
  • Open: 1.32330
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.07
  • Day’s range: 1.32343 – 1.32567
  • 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Yesterday, a variety of trends was observed on the GBP/USD currency pair. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous: the trading instrument is in a sideways trend. Investors expect additional drivers. The local support and resistance levels are 1.32300 and 1.32700, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

Today, the news feed on the UK economy is calm. We recommend you to pay attention to the speech by the Bank of England head Mark Carney.

The price is being traded above 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which sends a signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

Trading recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.32300, 1.31800, 1.31300
  • Resistance levels: 1.32700, 1.33100, 1.33500

If the price fixes above 1.32700, GBP/USD is expected to rise. The movement is tending to 1.33100-1.33500.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the support level of 1.32300, it is necessary to consider sales of GBP/USD. The movement is tending to 1.31800-1.31600.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

  • Prev Open: 1.31523
  • Open: 1.31367
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.15
  • Day’s range: 1.31135 – 1.31281
  • 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

There is a downward trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Currently, the local levels of support and resistance are 1.31100 and 1.31350, respectively. Positions should be opened from these marks. The trading instrument is tending potentially to reduce.

The news feed on the economy of Canada is calm.

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is moving out from the oversold zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.31100, 1.30800
  • Resistance levels: 1.31350, 1.31600, 1.31900

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.31100, further decrease of the USD/CAD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.30800-1.30500.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the already “mirror” resistance level of 1.31350, the correction of the USD/CAD quotes is expected. The target level of movement is 1.31600-1.31900.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

  • Prev Open: 112.203
  • Open: 112.269
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.02
  • Day’s range: 112.344 – 112.375
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the USD/JPY currency pair. The quotes are in a sideways trend. Investors expect additional drivers. The price is testing the key support level of 112.250. The resistance level is still 112.600. Positions must be opened from these marks.

The news feed on the economy of Japan is calm.

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is being traded between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 MArk.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the growth of USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations

  • Support levels: 112.250, 111.900, 111.500
  • Resistance levels: 112.600, 112.900

If the price fixes below the 112.250 level, the USD/JPY currency pair is expected to decline. The movement is tending to 111.900-111.700.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the resistance of 112.600, we recommend opening long positions. The target level of movement is 112.900-113.100.

by JustForex, 2018.07.17

 

 

Ichimoku Analysis: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, July 17, 2018

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7424, inside the Ichimoku cloud, which means the pair is trading sideways. We expect a test of the upper cloud boundary at 0.7435, and then a downward pullback to 0.7325. This fall may be prevented in case the price breaks out the upper boundary and closes above 0.7455, which will be a signal for a further rise to 0.7525 and above. Conversely, the fall will be confirmed once the bottom boundary gets broken out and the price closes below 0.7380.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.6822, above the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s an uptrend forming. We expect a test of the upper cloud boundary at 0.6805, and then a rise to 0.6920 and above, which may be confirmed with the price bouncing off the resistance. This rise may be prevented in case price breaks out the lower boundary and closes below 0.6750, which will be a signal for a further fall to 0.6670 and below. The rise will get confirmed once the upper boundary of the triangle is broken out and the price closes above 0.6850.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3124, inside the Ichimoku cloud, which means the pair is trading sideways. We expect a test of the lower cloud boundary at 1.3120, and then an upward pullback to 1.3235, which will be confirmed with the price bouncing off the lower boundary of the descending channel. This rise may be prevented in case price breaks out the lower boundary and closes below 1.3080, which will be a signal for a further fall to 1.3010 and below. The rise will get confirmed once the upper cloud boundary is broken out and the price closes above 1.3205.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex market review (17/07/18)

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

This morning, the 17th of July, the EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1714 as we await the opening of the European session, which puts the euro slightly up (about 20 pips) over the last 24 hours. I don’t think that this growth over the last 24 hours is part of any kind of purposeful movement, but is rather just a pullback.

Looking at the fundamentals, the following events have the potential to significantly affect the dynamics of major currency pairs today:

  • 11:00 (GMT+3) UK: BoE Governor Carney’s speech – could have a significant effect on the dynamics of the pound.
  • 11:30 (GMT+3) UK: ILO unemployment rate (May), average earnings excluding bonus (May) – Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.2%. Average earnings excluding bonuses are expected to rise by 2.5%.
  • 17:00 (GMT+3) USA: Fed’s Powell speech.

EURUSD:

On the daily timeframe (D1), the EURUSD could potentially form a head and shoulders model:

The right shoulder has yet to fully form, however, so I wouldn’t yet open a trade on the basis of this model.

On the 4-hour timeframe (H4), the EURUSD pair is forming a descending triangle:

The 5th wave is currently being formed inside this wedge.

An analysis of the D1 and H4 charts tells me that while we currently lack any clear sell signals on the EURUSD pair, the sentiment is certainly bearish, and so pressure on this pair looks set to remain. I reckon we’ll see the pair hit some new lows pretty soon.

NZD/USD Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern Hints Bullish Continuation

By Admiral Markets

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on

The NZD/USD has formed an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, and we can see a breakout above the neckline (blue). 0.6790-0.6805 is the POC zone, and the price could bounce from the zone on another retest. However, a break above 0.6839 might initiate a new bullish move towards 0.6900. As long as the pair is above 0.6729, bulls should be safe.

W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: NZD/USD Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern Hints Bullish Continuation


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

EURUSD Reluctant to Move

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

EURUSD doesn’t look active and is not moving in any clear direction. Still, although trade wars are no longer as a strong trigger as before, they have not become less relevant. Now it’s China’s turn, but its government has not taken any measures in response to the US policies yet.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is still traveling around the political world. He already visited Britain where he spoke hawkish on May and Brexit, which affected pound sterling negatively. Now the US President, as well as the market, is focused on the meeting with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Investors are watching both economic and political news closely, but very calmly. While the market is not that interesting for its participants now, it may save some effort for the future moves that may be caused by a lot of various drivers and triggers.

Thus, today’s evening we’ll be expecting the US retail sales in June. May was a great month for the retail sector, with the figures adding 0.8% MoM, while the automotives were even higher, +0.9%. The markets are now very engaged in watching what could June data reveal. This time the expectations are not that high, just 0.4% in both cases. If these expectations are met or beaten, this may well support the US dollar.

On Tuesday, the manufacturing production is being released, which should confirm current trends.

Technically, the EURUSD is downtrending in the short term, which was caused by the previous uptrend support breakout. This new downtrend already reached the projection channel support and may go further down till another support at 1.1605. However, the pair may start rising again soon, so one should also closely watch the resistance at $1.1715, which, if broken out, may lead the price to the important local highs at $1.1790 and $1.1875.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.