Archive for Stock Market News – Page 2

Stoxx Europe 50 Analysis – Reporting season of European companies continues

By IFCMarkets

Reporting season of European companies continues

Corporate earnings reports season for the 2nd quarter of 2018 continues in the Eurozone. According to forecasts, the aggregate profit of companies from the Stoxx Europe 50 list will increase by 8%. Will EU50 prices rise?

Market participants hope that Donald Trump’s demands will be limited by the increase of European countries’ spending on NATO defense to 2% of GDP and will not touch the issues of mutual trade. In other words, there will be no increase in import duties for European goods following the example of the US-China trade war. Such an opinion may be a positive factor for quotations of companies from the EU. Let us also note that the EU50 dividend yield is 3.6% and it is traded with P/E (capitalization/earnings ratio) of 14.9. This is noticeably better than similar indicators of the US stock index S&P 500: dividend yield 2.4% and P/E 22.2.

EU50

On the daily timeframe, EU50: D1 approached the upper boundary of the falling channel. It should be overcome before opening a buy position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed buy signals. The further price increase is possible in case of the publication of positive reports by the European companies.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
  • The Bollinger bands have widened, which indicates high volatility. They are titled upward.
  • The RSI indicator is above 50. It has formed a positive divergence.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case EU50 exceeds the last fractal high at 3480. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last fractal low and the Parabolic signal at 3375. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (3375) without reaching the order (3480), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

Position Buy
Buy stop Above 3480
Stop loss Below 3375

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Emerging Markets could be starting a relief rally

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Over the past 4+ months, many emerging markets have come under pressure as the global markets were roiled by the sudden and relatively deep market retracement in early February.  For many, this downward price trend has been frightening and somewhat disastrous.  Recently, though, something new appears to be on the horizon that may be the early signs of renewed life for many Latin American, South American and Indian markets – early signs of support and a potential bottom formation in the works.

Our researchers have been following the recent moves in these emerging market ETF for Brazil, Latin America, and India with great interest because we believe in finding opportunities when many others may not be looking for them.  We believe these early warning stages of a market bottom could be an excellent time to “forward think” any possible price recovery that may occur in the near future and to prepare for any success opportunities that may arise.  Heck, we are traders and if the opportunity exists for a decent profit with little risk, we’ll investigate it.

Let’s get started with this Daily chart of the BRZU (Brazil Bull 3x ETF).  We can see from this chart the extended downtrend channel that has existed for nearly 4 months.  Near the bottom right side, pay close attention to the horizontal price channel that is setting up – this could be an excellent bottom rotation channel resulting in an upside breakout eventually.  With only 3 to 7 days to go before the upper price channel may be challenged and a clear double bottom formation near $16, any downside rotation below $17.50~18 would be an excellent buying opportunity range with $16 being our protective stop level.  Assuming this channel continues as price reaches this apex, at some point price will either rotate higher or continue to channel lower (below the $16 level).  So, buying near the lower range of this horizontal price channel may be a great opportunity for an upside move.

Additionally, the GAP between $26 and $28 is a clear upside target.  We would hope this move would be quick and simple, buy below $18 with a target above $26.  A quick $9 profit per share (50%+) and we could manage the remainder of our trade by moving our stop to $23 or $24 to protect against any unwanted losses.

Yet, in order for this trade to really have any teeth, we would need to see some correlation across multiple emerging market ETF.  Then we could really say that we may be seeing some type of bottom rotation starting to form.  Let’s look for more correlative signals.

 

This next chart is a Daily INDL (India Bull 3x ETF) and it is showing a similar pattern that has recently broken above the downward sloping price channel.  This is a good sign that price may be attempting a rotational upside move in the near future.  Yet, upon closer inspection, we can see that a double top is setting up $80 that may unsettle this move.  Additionally, the range of the price channel is rather deep – $68 to $80.  That $12 range may include a bit more RISK than we want to consider at the moment.  Certainly, this trade looks like it may have some potential, but there are still concerns that this trend may be a false flag type of move.

We would like to see more pronounced and defined “higher low” rotations in the process of creating this double top formation.  Currently, we have a few moderate higher low setups, but the deeper low near the end of June is concerning.  Ideally, we would wait for a low price move below $72~74 and watch for price rotation back to the upside as a better sign that price is “technically conforming to Fibonacci price rotation theory”.

Still, this pattern is setting up as resistance near $80 with a clear sign that a bottom could be forming in INDL at the moment.  Our opinion is to watch it and wait for a better setup before taking a position.  We believe we can identify a better entry point by waiting for price to show us it is ready to move higher instead of presuming this rotation WILL move higher.

 

Lastly, let’s take a look at this LBJ (Latin America Bull 3x ETF) Daily chart.  We find this chart very interesting for one simple reason – the big “U” shaped bottom formation near $17.50 and the clear upside price swing that is taking place right now.  You can clearly see the RED price channel slopes that are key to understanding price resistance and the more aggressive downward slope that was breached in mid-June.  Yes, should this ETF rally back to near $30 from this level, we would be looking at a 50%+ increase in value.  Yet, again, we have to learn to be patient and wait for the price to show us that it is preparing for an upward swing higher.

As of right now, we have “higher highs”, which is a great sign that the trend has changed to the upside.  Yet, we also have a clear GAP between $23.50 and $25.50 that could become immediate resistance.  We also don’t have any “low price rotation points” that we can use as a technical confirmation of price trend and price rotation.  In other words, we have what may be an impulse move higher with no real confirmation of longer-term upside potential.

We would caution investors from jumping into this trade at this time and urge them to wait for better confirmation – likely after the breach of the price GAP is filled and price rotates back below, or near to, $20.  Short and simple, this is a very interesting bottom formation in the works that has not qualified as a solid uptrend yet.  There are still too many unanswered concerns to allocate capital towards this trade.

 

While all of this is interesting and possibly a bit early in terms of bottom formation expectations, we believe the correlation across these multiple markets shows enough evidence of a potential emerging market bottom in select markets as it relates to these under performing Latin American and Indian markets.  Obviously, we still have to be cautious of any downside rotation that could be dangerous – these percent ranges still show quite a bit of risk.  But the upside potential for a perfectly timed entry may be just around the corner.

Want to learn more about what we do and how we help traders find success in the markets?  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how our research team, with more than 50 combined years of trading experience, can assist you in finding tremendous trading opportunities each month as well as provide you with detailed market research, Daily market videos and much more.  Our job is to help you find and execute successful trades in the future and to help you stay aware of future market moves.

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeMarketResearch to see how our research team has been ahead of these turns in the global markets for the past 8+ months.  We have an incredibly deep research library of posts available to all members/visitors at the link above.  We are certain you will find value in our work and our abilities to accurately predict the markets.  We’ve been calling for upside price moves in the US Equities markets since the middle of February when everyone was warning about a collapse.  We called the downtrend in China months before it happened and we recently called the downward rotation in Crude 4 days before it happened.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Quarterly earnings report is the main driver of the stock market

By IFCMarkets

On Friday, US stock prices rose slightly

A slight increase allowed the S&P 500 index to update a 5-month high.

Investors believe that the US wins in the trade war with China. Stock prices of the American industrial companies Boeing, Caterpillar and 3M increased. Nevertheless, the growth of stock indices on Friday was moderate due to neutral earnings reports by the largest US banks. Citigroup stocks fell by 2.2%, and JPMorgan Chase – by 0.6%. According to the results of the second quarter, investors expect a 20% increase in the aggregate profit of the companies from the S&P 500 list. This is a very high indicator. The earnings report should be very good, so that prices continue to rise. The S&P 500 is only 2.5% below its historical high and may correct down, if the data disappoint market participants. In general, everyone is waiting for earnings reports and on Friday, the volume of trades in the US turned out to be the lowest in the current year. Data on retail sales for June will come out today at 14:30 CET in the US.

stock

European stock indices rose following the US stock indices.

The euro closed with a slight increase and regained its entire decline at the beginning of trades.

The decrease in the consumer confidence indicator by the University of Michigan in the United States contributed to the strengthening of the European currency. The Eurozone trade balance for May will be published today at 11:00 CET. The outlook is positive. Good corporate news contributed to the price increase of European companies on Friday. In particular, British recruitment company Hays published a forecast of its financial results and its stocks increased by 8.6%.

Nikkei continued its growth for the third consecutive day.

This was contributed by the continued weakening of the yen, which was firmly fixed above the level of 112 yen per dollar. Nikkei added 3.7% over the week, which became the maximum growth for 4 months. This was mainly contributed by the good news from Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group.

Copper prices stopped their decline and are close to the annual low.

China consumes the half of the world’s copper production. Today, its GDP for the second quarter was published. It grew by 6.7% in annual terms, which is slightly less than the increase of 6.8% in the first quarter. According to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of contracts on the sale of copper reached the high since December 2016. Their closure may provoke a correction of copper prices upward.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

Cell Therapy Company and Chinese Firm Sign Marketing Deal

By The Life Science Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   07/15/2018

This biotech, in Phase 1 development of regenerative technologies addressing skin and orthopedic indications, has finalized a commercialization deal with YOFOTO.

On June 11, RepliCel Life Sciences Inc. (RP:TSX.V; REPCF:OTCQB) announced it has signed agreements with YOFOTO, a Chinese company focused on beauty and lifestyle products, to market three of its therapies in China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

In exchange for an upfront investment and milestone payments, RepliCel and YOFOTO will collaborate on the “development and commercialization in Greater China of RepliCel’s tendon regeneration cell therapy (RCT-01), skin rejuvenation cell therapy (RCS-01), and its injection technology in development for dermal applications (RCI-02) (excluding hair-related treatments).”

Financial terms of the deal include the upfront investment by YOFOTO of “CDN $5,090,000 [via the] purchase of shares at CDN $0.95 per Share and will include 20% warrant coverage exercisable at CDN $0.95 per Share for a period of two years,” according to the press release. “The deal structure also includes milestone payments (of up to CDN $4,750,000), sales royalties, and a commitment by YOFOTO to spend a minimum of CDN $7,000,000 on the RepliCel programs and associated cell processing manufacturing facility over the next five years in Greater China.”

Commenting on the deal, RepliCel President & CEO R. Lee Buckler noted that “successful Phase 1 data” had been announced for the company’s skin and tendon products. “We were committed to delivering a landmark partnership to RepliCel shareholders in 2018. The partnership with YOFOTO represents such a deal and provides RepliCel with not only an outstanding partner in Greater China but capital to move our programs forward in Europe and North America.”

RepliCel also has a partnership with Japanese firm Shiseido, which is funding a Phase 2 study of RCH-01, a cell therapy addressing androgenetic alopecia, or pattern baldness, at Tokyo Medical University Hospital and Toho University Ohasi Medical Center.

YOFOTO Chairman Huang Jin Bao noted, “The RepliCel cell therapy and injection technologies focused on skin rejuvenation and tendon repair, are important building blocks in YOFOTO’s strategic healthcare vision. We are pleased to have structured a deal with RepliCel which results in YOFOTO not only being a development partner and commercial licensee but also an investor committed to contributing to RepliCel’s global success.”

The TSX Venture Exchange and other applicable regulatory agencies must approve the terms of the agreement.

Want to read more Life Sciences Report articles like this? Sign up at www.streetwisereports.com/get-news for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Tracy Salcedo compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following company mentioned in this article is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports: RepliCel Life Sciences. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

( Companies Mentioned: RP:TSX.V; REPCF:OTCQB,
)

​DAX30 Range Might Turn into an Uptrend

By Admiral Markets

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on

Early Mondays are notorious for range bound market movements. However, some markets might turn the trend into bullish or bearish the same day. That could be the case with the DAX30. 12460-12498 is the POC zone. The price might bounce from the zone on a retest. If the retest doesn’t happen watch for a retracement trend line break (blue dotted line). A close above 12571 should target 12615. If the price make a strong momentum or 4h close above 12615, next is 12684. A move below 12405 might turn the price bearish targeting 12929.

W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: ​DAX30 Range Might Turn into an Uptrend


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

US equities set for further advances as Q2 earnings start

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

The upside price moves recently in the US Equities markets have been dramatic.  While many people believe the US Equity markets are overvalued and setting up for a top, we believe just the opposite – that the US Equity market and strong US Dollar are attracting capital and investment from numerous internal and external sources.  We also believe the Q2 2018 earnings season, which is just about to begin, could be an additional driving force for further price advances – with big upside moves ahead.

 

There are really three things at work in the global markets right now:

Strong US Dollar and global trade/policy issues: these are driving concerns and economic sustainability issues in many foreign nations and attracting investments as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against many foreign currencies.

Foreign Debt/Economic Sustainability issues: the facts that economic cycles, as well as political and social concerns, have roiled many foreign markets, elections and policies in combination with somewhat out of control debt levels in some countries is starting to weigh on investors.  Yes, strategic investors will still be looking for opportunities, but longer-term investors are seeking risks everywhere and are searching for protected investments – not risky deflationary investments.

Leadership Changes/Challenges: as we have all recently seen, there are a number of political leadership and regional economic and policy challenges that are underway at the moment.  Italy, Greece, Malaysia, Mexico, Denmark, Belgium and a host of others are all in the process of restructuring policies, objectives and SOP (standard operating procedures) to address new demands from their people and the world.  What was acceptable, nearly 24+ months ago, is now just not the case any longer.  The result is that leadership must adapt to the new demands of the people and economic environment.

Simply put, there is so much going on throughout the rest of the world in terms of currency valuations, global trade and policy issues, debt levels and economic sustainability concerns as well as leadership concerns and dramatically changing political and economic environments that investors are actively seeking some level of “standard of protection” for their capital..  And the only places on the planet, right now, that offer that standard are the US, Canada, and Great Britain. Our opinion is that, soon enough, the only economies on the planet that will be capable of handling the ROI and capital requirements of the world will be the most mature and dynamic economies on the planet.

 

Keeping this in mind, as we near the Q2 US earnings season, expect the following to play out:

– Technology will likely continue to shine with earnings growth and increased subscriber bases.  Netflix, Hulu, Microsoft, Amazon and a host of other will likely surprise with earnings over the next few weeks.

– Industrial standards like Disney, Comcast, Charter Communications, Sony, Marvel and many others will likely support strong earnings and forward guidance.

– Manufacturing and Chemicals will likely be positive to mixed overall.  Some companies will likely issue strong forward guidance while others may issue weaker guidance as a result of foreign market slowdowns.

– Biotech and healthcare will likely produce strong results overall as the past quarter has likely been a “lean operational process” for many not knowing what to expect throughout the next 12+ months.

– Weakness may be seen in some isolated instances with companies that may be more exposed to global demand and raw material costs (oil, copper, hard materials).  Yet we believe the outcome of this Q2 earnings season will be moderately strong overall.

 

What does this mean for the markets?

This 240 Minute ES chart shows the recent upside price action as well as the recent breakout to new highs (above 2800 for the first time since March 2018).  These upside price channels are likely to hold going forward and we expect earnings to drive prices to near or above 2900 (new all-timehighs) relatively quickly in the ES.  As we have been highlighting, we believe the ES and YM have the strongest potential for upside price moves compared to the NQ.

 

This Daily SPY chart clearly shows the rotational lows followed by upside price advances that are indicative of the recent price swings.  These deep rotational lows continue to setup “higher low” price levels that allow technicians to understand price pivot formations.  Each of these rotations sets up an opportunity for skilled traders to jump into the next upside move for profits.  The recent breakout of new highs indicates we could be in for a dramatic move to well above $290 throughout the earnings season.

 

Lastly, this 240 Minute YM chart helps to illustrate the upside potential of the DOW & Transports Index.  The last upside swing in price from July 7th till July 11th totaled about 800 points.  If that move replicates with this new upside swing, we could see another +800 point move higher from recent lows near 24,500.  This would indicate an upside potential to near 25,300 or higher.

 

Make sure you are positioned for these moves through this next earnings season.  If our estimates are correct, we should see some fantastic trading opportunities over the next 30+ days.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you in capturing greater profits and greater success with our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and more.  Join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day to create greater successes.

Also, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeMarketResearch to read all of our most recent free research posts.  We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

Chris Vermeulen

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades

See which data set helped traders stay in front of REGN’s late 2017-early 2018 crash

By Elliott Wave International

According to a June 26 Fortune Magazine article, New York-based bio tech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the “100 Best Places for Millennials to Work” in the world. Shares one of Regeneron’s employees:

“The thing I love about working at Regeneron is that when they say data is king, they mean it. Our work and projects are always changing based on what the data shows us.”

We hear the same expression bandied about Wall Street; data is king to determining a market’s price trend, with the long-reigning monarch of that data being earnings reports.

All hail earnings reports? Not so fast!

Our very own senior analyst and long-reigning Trader’s Classroom instructor Jeffrey Kennedy admits to the “seductive nature” of earnings data, tempting investors into a false sense of confidence regarding future price action. But there’s a danger in such logic, as Jeffrey explains:

“My own experience trading earnings reports has been hit or miss. At the very least, it’s been frustrating because there have been times when the earnings report will be positive, and the stock price will decline — or vice a versa.”


Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 20-minute video, “4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades.” In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. Learn more now.


You’ve seen this happen too, I’m sure. So, why does it happen?

Because it’s not the hard data inside the earnings report that drives prices. It’s how the market participants interpret that data. And their interpretation depends on the current trend in market psychology. But hold on, let’s let Jeffrey explain more.

Over the course of his career as a technical market analyst and trading instructor, Jeffrey has relied on another form of data to determine the most “watch-worthy” issues: Elliott wave analysis. For Jeffrey, there are three main requirements for a high-confidence trade set-up:

  • A Clear Trend: Jeffrey explains: “The first thing I want to identify on a market’s price chart is the trend.” Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, whereas lower highs and lower lows suggest a downtrend at play.
  • A Recognizable Wave Pattern: Jeffrey is emphatic: “If you can’t count [the Elliott wave subdivisions inside a price move], don’t trade it.” He sticks to the five core Elliott wave patterns: impulse wave, ending diagonal, zigzag, flat, and triangle.
  • A Clue to Price Personality: Slow and choppy price action contained within parallel lines indicates countertrend action — i.e., a correction. Conversely, when prices move far and fast, and especially if you see a price gap on the chart, this indicates the so-called impulse waves — i.e., the direction of the larger trend.

Now let’s see how Jeffrey uses this Elliott wave data to interpret real-world price charts. One market that’s fresh on the brain is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN).

Our first mention of REGN comes from Jeffrey’s October 19, 2017 Trader’s Classroom video lesson. See why Elliott waves called for REGN to step off a sharp bearish cliff to new lows. Simply press “play” and enjoy:

Here’s a close-up of Jeffrey’s chart of REGN along with a recap of his overall forecast:

“The weight of evidence… would argue for a move to the downside.”

7618REGN1

The next chart shows you how closely REGN’s prices followed Jeffrey’s October 19 Trader’s Classroom Elliott wave script: They collapsed 35% to a four-year low.

And yes – prices fell DESPITE one of the most glowing earnings reports in the biotech company’s history.

You read that right! On November 8, 2017, Regeneron published its Q3 2017 earnings, which showed “street-topping revenue” that “crushed” expectations with a 27.5% increase in adjusted income per share and a 23% increase in sales versus year ago period. (Investor’s Business Journal)

7818REGNafter

The failure of a positive earnings report to stem the market’s decline and fuel a rally is exactly the “hit or miss” nature of the earnings beast Jeffrey spoke about.

By contrast, Elliott wave analysis steered a clear, objective course that proved invaluable to traders and investors.

And while Elliott wave data enabled Jeffrey to anticipate the larger trend unfolding on Regeneron’s weekly price chart, it also facilitated a strong assessment of the market’s near-term prospects in his more recent, June 26, 2018 Trader’s Classroom video lesson.

There, Jeffrey “moved down to a smaller, 60-minute time frame to examine the smaller Elliott wave substructure.” The chart, pictured below showed that a large move up was on tap.

7618REGN2

And here’s what happened next:

7618REGN3

In the same June 26 Trader’s Classroom video lesson, Jeffrey also revisits REGN’s larger trend, to answer the question:

“Is there sufficient evidence in place that the selloff from the 2017 high is complete?”

In the video, Jeffrey examines the data at hand and comes up with a strong case for one kind of move in the weeks and months ahead.

While not every Elliott wave forecast works out, the value of Elliott wave analysis is clear from this real-world example — and from every Trader’s Classroom lesson Jeffrey records for his subscribers.


Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 20-minute video, “4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades.” In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. Learn more now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

S&P500 Mini Speculators advanced their bullish net positions this week

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators slightly lifted their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 171,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly increase of 3,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,981 net contracts.

The speculative position in the SP500 mini bounced back this week after a down week last week (-29,205 contract decline) and has now risen for five out of the past six weeks. The overall net bullish position has now remained above the +160,000 net contract level for six consecutive weeks.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -249,244 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 16,743 contracts from the total net of -265,987 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $278.9 which was a rise of $8.0 from the previous close of $270.9, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Speculators added to their bearish net positions this week

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators boosted their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -52,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly lowering of -19,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,219 net contracts.

Speculators had seen their bearish bets fall in the previous two weeks before this week’s increase. The overall bearish position is the highest level of the past three weeks and back above the -50,000 contract level for the first time since June 19th.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 64,827 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 24,175 contracts from the total net of 40,652 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately $12.64 which was a decrease of $-3.5 from the previous close of $16.14, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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China’s foreign trade surplus with the US reached a historic high

By IFCMarkets

On Thursday, prices continued to rise on the US stock market

The Chinese authorities said that they had not yet discussed the issue of new foreign trade duties with the US. Market participants do not exclude that China can make any concessions.

In June 2018, the China’s foreign trade surplus with the US reached a historic high and amounted to $29 billion. In the first half of the year, it reached $133.8 billion. Let us recall that the US president is going to raise duties on almost all Chinese goods supplied to the United States, with a total value of $500 billion per year. The increase will be nearly 10%, which will not completely stop imports. Nevertheless, the US companies will gain an advantage, which contributed to the significant increase in the US stock market. Boeing and Caterpillar stocks, which were previously among the top losers, rose by more than 1% yesterday. Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon stocks have updated historical highs. The consumer confidence index by the University of Michigan for July will be published today at 16:00 CET in the US. Investors will mainly focus on the indicators of quarterly reports by the largest US banks: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

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European stock indices rose following US stock indices, and the euro fell

The telecommunications sector was among the top gainers (+ 2.4%) thanks to good corporate news.

American media group Comcast offered to buy out British TV-provider Sky for $34 billion. Eutelsat, Intelsat and SES companies can create a joint project to develop a 5G mobile network in the US. The industrial production growth in the Eurozone for May also contributed to the general increase in European stock indices. The euro exchange rate fell after Donald Trump’s statement that European countries should increase defense spending first to 2% of GDP and then to 4%. The increase in US inflation in June contributed to the drop of the euro against the US dollar. This increases the probability of a Fed rate hike. Today, no significant economic statistics are expected in the Eurozone.

Nikkei demonstrated a strong growth for the second consecutive day

The Japanese stock index Nikkei demonstrated a maximum weekly growth of 3.7% since the end of March of the current year. This was contributed by the continuous weakening of the yen and good corporate news. Fast Retailing, the operator of the Uniqlo clothing chain, reported an increase in operating profit by 37% and its stock prices rose by 7%. Amid the increase in US high-tech companies, Japanese Advantest Corp and Kyocera Corp added more than 2%. The yen collapsed to a 6-month low against the US dollar amid China’s “silence” regarding the new US duties. Previously, investors considered the Japanese currency as a “safe haven” in the trade war between the US and China.

Soybean prices continue to decline, and corn prices are trying to rise

Since the beginning of June, soybean prices have already fallen by 20%. In its monthly report, the U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) raised the forecast for commercial bean stocks at the end of the 2018/19 agricultural season from 385 million bushels to a historic high of 580 million bushels. The export forecast decreased by 250 million bushels to 2.04 billion bushels. The USDA raised the forecast for soybean crop in the US to 4.31 billion bushels.

Corn prices slightly increased after the publication of the monthly USDA report for July. The crop forecast was raised to 14.23 billion bushels from 14.04 billion in June. However, the ministry lowered the estimate of US stocks at the end of the 2018/19 season to 1.552 billion bushels from 1.577 billion and raised the corn export forecast by 125 million bushels to 2.225 billion. The USDA also lowered its stock forecast for the end of the 2017/18 season, also due to an increase in exports.

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