Archive for Stock Market News

How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades.  As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles.  We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.

Price is the ultimate indicator in our view.  Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more.  When we apply our proprietary price modeling and price cycle tools, we can gain a very clear picture of what price may attempt to do in the near future and even as far as a few months into the future.  Price, as the ultimate indicator, truly is the mathematical core element of all future price activity, trends, and reversions. Before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

We have been using cycles since 2011 and have developed multiple proprietary price modeling tools over the past 5+ years that assist us in finding and timing great trades.  Most of what we have learned over the past 8+ years is refined into “experience and skill”.  When you follow the markets every day – every hour, for the past 8+ years and see various types of price and technical indicator setups and reactions, you learn to hone into certain setups that have proven to be highly accurate trading triggers.

Our research team had dedicated thousands of hours to develop the tremendous skills and experience to be able to produce accurate cycles, and to also interpret them, which is what we specialize in doing. Determining which cycles to trade may look simple, yet they are far from easy to trade without the setups and price rotation signals.

We use a blend of the top 4 active price cycles in the market which updates daily. This data allows us to know where future price is likely to move over the next few days and weeks.  Within this article, we’ll show you some of our proprietary price cycles and modeling tools to show you how we run some of our specialized trading tools.

SP500 Daily Chart – Predicted Price Movement

This SPY chart highlights the short-term price cycle modeling system where you can see how price reacted in alignment with our proprietary cycle tool.  If you look into the future, you can see that our proprietary price cycle tool is predicting the SPY may cycle into a potential double-top type of formation before cycling lower approximately 8+ days into the future.  One thing to remember is these cycle levels do not predict price target levels.  Don’t look at this chart and the cycle tool lines as price objectives – they are just trending bias levels scaled from 0 to 100 – just like a SINE WAVE.  Ideally, in order to identify price targets, we must fall back to technical price theory and Fibonacci price theory in order to identify target price objectives for the top formation and the potential downside price trend in the future.

Bonds Daily Chart – Predicted Price Movement

This BOND Daily chart highlights a different type of price cycle – a momentum base/bottom type of setup.  You can see from our proprietary cycle tool lines on the chart how price movement has aligned almost perfectly with the cycle forecast.  Also, please notice how the price has moved beyond cycle highs and lows at times.  This relates to the fact that we discussed above – that cycles do not predict price objectives.  On this chart, a longer-term momentum base/bottom setup appears to be forming over the next 8+ days where the Bonds may begin a new upside price trend after the base/bottom forms.  This would indicate that we should be looking for opportunities and price triggers that set up after the bottom has setup – not before.  If we time our entry properly, we may negate any real risk for a trade with Bonds.

Gold Miners Daily Chart – Predicted Price Movement

This Daily GDXJ chart almost perfectly highlights how the cycles do not align with real price objectives.  Throughout most of this chart, you can see the cycle levels rotate higher and lower near the extremes while price rotated in a much more narrow range.  Still, pay attention to how our proprietary cycle tool nailed nearly every rotation in price.  The range of the cycle lines is indicative of the scale and scope of the total cycle event.  Bigger cycle ranges suggest deeper, more volatile price trending events.

Notice how the current cycle ranges are much more narrow than the previous cycle ranges?  This suggests the current price cycle event may be more muted and smaller in volatility than previous price cycle ranges.

Our proprietary price cycle tool is suggesting that GDXJ will rotate lower to setup a moderate-term price bottom before attempting to move higher over the next 8 to 10+ days.  The upside price cycle may be rather muted as well – possibly only targeting recent price peaks near $40~42.

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Predicted Price Movement

As you can see our past cycle analysis has been extremely accurate. In, fact natural gas can provide some of the largest and quickest gains out of all asset classes we cover. In August we traded natural gas for a quick 24% profit, and in October we have already locked in 15% again.  Our remaining position in Natural Gas is up even more after this incredible upside move predicted by our cycle tool.

This chart presents a very good example of how our proprietary cycle tool can align with price perfectly at times.  In this example, the expected cycle ranges, which highlight the intensity and potential volatility of the price trends, aligned almost perfectly with the real price action.  Currently, the cycle tool is predicting a moderate price rotation in Natural Gas before a further upside price move hits.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super-cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Concluding Thoughts:

Opportunities are all around us.  Using the right tools to identify the true technical cycles, price cycles, and trading setup can help to eliminate risks and hone into more profitable trades.  It is almost impossible to time market tops and bottoms accurately, yet, as you can see from our work above, we have tools that can help us see into the future and help to predict when major price peaks and valleys may form.  Using a tool like this to help you determine when the real opportunity exists and when to time your trades will only improve your market insights and trading results….

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

The protests in Hong Kong stopped the growth of stocks

By IFCMarkets

The strengthening of the dollar continues

US stocks resumed their growth on Tuesday. During the trading day the indices S&P 500 (+0,16%) и Nasdaq (+0,26%) (+0,26%) updated historic maximums, but their closure was not too high. The index Dow Jones Industrial Average did not change after the end of the trading day. The main positive was another statement by US President Donald Trump that the United States and China are close to signing the “first phase” of a trade deal. The leader in yesterday’s growth was the “healthcare” sector, and the leader in the terms of decline was the “real estate” sector. The reporting season for the 3rd quarter is near to the conclusion. So far, it is expected that the total profit of the S&P 500 500 will decrease by its results by 0.5% after rapid growth in the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is a preliminary estimate, as big companies such as Walmart, Nvidia and Cisco Systems yet need to report this week. Today the US Dollar Index ICE is growing for the second day in a row, awaiting the publication of US inflation data for October tonight.

The European stocks indices returned again to 4-year highs

The European stocks rose Tuesday due to the publication of a positive review of investor activity in Germany (ZEW Survey) and due to the good corporate reporting. The DAX 30 index rose on 0.6% up to a 22-months maximum. Currently the Stoxx Europe 600 index is lower only 2% below its historical maximum, achieved on April 2015. However, today the European stock indices are still trading in the minus, because the investors are worried about increased protests in Hong Kong and fear of the delays between USA and China trade negotiations. The leaders in the decline are the banking and automotive sectors. The rate of the EUR/USD is continuing to decline and reached the psychological level at 1.1.

11/13/2019 Market Overview IFC Markets chart

Hang Seng falls for the 4th day in a row

Asian stock indices are mostly declining today after reports on the increased protests in Hong Kong. On Tuesday, the Nikkei grew nearly a percent on weaker yen up to 5-month minimum against the US dollar. The investors hope that the weak yen will support Japanese exporting companies. The stocks electronics manufacturers Sony and Advantest rose on 1.3% and 3.5%. Today, Nikkei dropped alongside with other European stock indices. From its local, 7-month minimum in August, it grew by 17% and some investors are expecting the correction.

Brent fell 3rd day in a row.

Brent futures price is lower today. The investors are disappointed that US President did not announce the date of signing of the “first phase” of the US-China trade agreement. Besides, International Energy Agency published a long-term forecast, according to which, the global demand for oil will grow by 1 million barrels per day annually until 2025. This is less than the average expected growth in global GDP. Moreover, according to the agency, after 2025, the global demand for oil will slow down to 100 thousand barrels per day annually until 2040 due to increased fuel consumption.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

Asian stocks, currencies lower as Trump reminds markets of tariff threats

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Asian stocks are trading lower, despite their US counterparts tantalisingly close to setting new record highs, as investors continue sieving through potential signals from the noise surrounding the highly anticipated US-China trade deal. US President Donald Trump teased markets saying that a deal could happen “soon”, even as he repeated his tariff threats. Risk aversion appears to be creeping back into the markets, allowing safe haven assets to trim their month-to-date losses. Gold has pushed back towards $1460 while USDJPY has returned to sub-109.0 levels at the time of writing.

With most Asian currencies currently weaker against the US Dollar, the near-term outlook for Asian currencies remain primarily dictated by the prospects of a US-China trade deal, as investors are hopeful that the signing will take place by year-end. Considering that much of the optimism surrounding the trade deal has been priced in, this suggests that the upside for Asian currencies appear limited, with potential gains further muted by the Dollar’s resilience.

Powell’s speech, US data unlikely to trigger massive moves in DXY

Considering that President Donald Trump’s latest speech offered no new clues surrounding the US-China trade deal, the Dollar will now turn its immediate attention to the incoming US economic data, as well as Fed chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. Powell is expected to reiterate that US monetary policy is currently in a “good place”, with markets currently expecting the Fed to stand pat on US interest rates at least through the first half of 2020. However, should Powell make what is perceived to be a dovish comment, that could prompt some immediate softness in the Dollar.

The upcoming releases of the October US CPI and retail sales data should support the narrative that the FOMC will leave its policy settings unchanged over the coming months. With inflation subdued and consumers still keeping economic growth momentum intact, the US economy is expected to continue its outperformance over its peers, which should buffer the DXY’s resilience.

Brent stumbles as US-China trade deal prospects dictate prices 

Brent futures have retreated below $62/bbl, as markets await fresh signals surrounding the US-China trade talks. With the next OPEC+ meeting just weeks away, it appears that the alliance is pinning their hopes squarely on a trade deal to send Oil prices higher, rather than triggering deeper supply cuts. An official trade deal would offer some sorely needed reprieve for the near-term outlook on global demand, while injecting confidence into Oil bulls going into 2020.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing – Part II

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09.  The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.

We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19.  Our intent was to highlight the new price high similarities as well as the price rotation similarities between the two critical peaks in market price. We are terming the current market a “Zombie-land” because it appears global investors are somewhat brain-dead as to the total risks that are setting up in the global markets right now. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Forward guidance is waning. Earning expectations are decreasing.  Debt levels are skyrocketing all over the planet.  Global banks are continuing to move into more Quantitative Easing measures to attempt to spark growth.  The equity markets are 9+ years into a rally while the global central banks are 10+ years into some form of continued QE efforts.  Global economic data suggests a moderate downturn in economic activity and growth for many foreign nations.  We believe the next crisis will not originate in the US, but from outside the US.  We believe the risks associated with the massive debt levels in the foreign markets will be the reason for another price decline.  Quite possibly, a commodity price collapse (think OIL) will become the catalyst for this event.

If Oil were to fall below $45…

If Oil were to fall below $45 (eventually possibly flirting with the $30 price level) as our predictive modeling suggests, then we believe many foreign nations will suddenly become serious risk factor related to debt/credit and could potentially create a domino-process where the US/Global markets collapse on this new risk factor. Our last predictive model signal was for natural gas and we just close out the trade locking in 19% profits this week.

Is 2007 setting up all over again?

But what if this is 2007 setting up all over again?  Take a look at the ES chart above – where a peak setup in May/June 2007, followed by a deep price correction.  Follow that price move even further to see how price rallied to a new all-time high throughout July, August and most of September before setting up in a deeper price rotation in late September and carrying forward into October.  Now, take a look at this current ES Weekly chart to see if there is any similarity between them.

Gold up 50% From Its Lows Already

Gold has already rallied nearly 49% from the 2015 lows and the recent price rotation is somewhat similar to what happened to Gold in 2006-2007.  The extended base that set up between 2017 and 2018 could be interpreted as a similar type of base that set up in 2006-07.  The current rally is somewhat similar to what happened in late 2007 and early 2008 when the US stock market began to collapse volatility expanded in a strong uptrend which was followed by a moderate price retracement before Gold began a rally totaling more than 250% from the base/bottom.  Is this setup happening again right now?

Weekly NQ chart shows the extended melt-up

This Weekly NQ chart shows the extended melt-up that is taking place after the October to December deep price rotation that took place in 2018.  We believe this deep price rotation is similar to the deep price rotation that happened between July and September 2007.  The subsequent “melt-up” process is a function of the “zombie-land” function of price and bias.  Investors chase after security and returns by pushing the price higher and higher when fundamentals and expectations don’t align with these expectations.  This same type of “zombie-land melt-up” happened in 2007 as well.

We understand the implications of this research post and want to warn all of our followers they need to be extremely cautious of the current market setup.  Even though the US stock market may continue an upside bias within a melt-up process, we believe there are very strong underlying risks in the markets that could prompt a very deep price correction.

The US Fed is not lowering rates because …

The US Fed is not lowering rates because of market strength and super strong forward guidance.  They are lowering rates because they believe risks exist in the debt/credit market and are trying to stay ahead of a big problem – a potentially very big problem.  The overnight REPO market has been a topic for our researchers for the past 45+ days as this temporary institutional debt tool has exploded recently.  Now, the US Fed has actively decreased rates and has begun acquiring more debt on its balance sheet.. hmm.  That seems strangely similar to another credit/debt crisis event.

(source: https://thesoundingline.com/october-saw-the-largest-increase-in-feds-balance-sheet-since-the-financial-crisis/)

We know many of our followers may consider this just another warning from a bunch of doom-sayers again.  We’re not wishing for this outcome – trust us.  We simply look at the technical data, determine a probable outcome and present our findings to our followers to try to keep them informed.

Too many similarities are starting to align to make this just some strange coincidence.  Too many unknowns and uncertainties are aligning just 12 months before a US presidential election cycle.  It seems strangely familiar to us that these same types of price events are unfolding now.  If there is no correlation then we’ll likely be incorrect in our analysis.  But if we are right and there is a major price reversion event setting up, we think it is wise to alert as many of our friends as possible.

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and move many months in advance.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Stocks close mixed as China deal concerns weigh

By IFCMarkets

Dollar strengthening halts

US stocks ended slightly lower on Monday as China deal doubts took over after President Trump’s denial over the weekend the US and China had agreed to roll back tariffs. The S&P 500 finished 0.2% lower at 3087.01. Dow Jones industrial however added 0.04% to new record 27691.49 led by 4.6% rally in Boeing after the plane maker announced it expected the grounded 737 Max fleet to return to commercial service in January. The Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1% to 8464.27. The dollar strengthening halted as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren proposed increasing capital buffers for large banks globally. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped 0.1% to 98.21 but is higher currently. Futures on US stock indices point to higher openings.

CAC 40 gains while other European indexes slip

European stock indexes closed mixed on Monday with mixed data providing little support. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD turned higher yesterday with both pairs climbing currently against the background of reports Trump would announce this week that he is delaying a decision on whether to slap tariffs on imported European Union autos for another six months. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended virtually unchanged while basic resource shares slid 1.6% as data revealed Italy’s industrial output fell 0.4% in September after 0.4% growth in August. The DAX 30 lost 0.2% to 13198.37. France’s CAC 40 however rose 0.1% and UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 7328.54 despite report UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter.

FR40 advancing in channel    11/12/2019 Market Overview IFC Markets chart

Nikkei rebound leads Asian indexes gains

Asian stock indices are also mixed today with no new development in US-China trade talks. Nikkei rebounded 0.8% to 23520.01 as yen slide against the dollar resumed. Markets in China are rising despite continuing violent protests in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite Index is up 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is 0.4% higher. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index turned 0.3% lower as Australian dollar resumed its climb against the greenback.

Brent futures prices are recovering today. Prices fell yesterday: January Brent crude closed 0.5% lower at $62.18 a barrel on Monday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

How Technology Is Helping To Transform The Business Lending Space

Over recent months global economic and political uncertainty have led many lenders to reduce the availability of finance for businesses, which could spell disaster for the global economic market. Challenges such as Donald Trump and his potential impeachment, Brexit and the UK’s pending election and other global social and political issues are causing financial institutions to become more reticent about the money they lend, particularly to small businesses. This reduction in lending is despite the fact that there is a definite increase in the number of businesses looking to borrow money.

Some areas of the business finance market, such as asset finance, have actually seen growth over recent months despite these challenges. For those markets that are struggling to gain financing, growth is often slow as entrepreneurs struggle to find loans to fund their ambitions and existing businesses find themselves without the capital to expand.

In such times many companies and innovators look towards alternative forms of financing, but economic uncertainty causes issues with these also. The entire lending space is struggling, with major blows such as the collapse of payday lending giant QuickQuid causing ripples throughout the market, and as such even alternative lending options are harder for businesses to access in this climate.

There are some signs that the future will be brighter, with a new SME Charter seeing banks and other lenders pledging to support UK businesses through Brexit, but despite this many companies are still facing a struggle to obtain the finance they need. It can be tough for companies of all sizes to gain greater funding, and without money they can struggle to grow and even close down.

For those businesses struggling to find finance, technology is the key to overcoming the challenges the lending industry currently poses. Platforms like Become offer an alternative way to accesses finance by bringing lenders and businesses together so that they can negotiate loans that will suit both parties. Evidence suggests that half of small businesses do not access funding solutions, and platforms such as this could provide an alternative way for them to find, understand and access the funding they need.

Another technological solution that has the potential to support growing companies is Trade Ledger, which recently completed a funding round of its own in order to expand and attempt to reduce the time-to-cash from the business finance industry average of 90 days to a mere 4 minutes. This pioneering solution digitalises business finance and uses cutting-edge technology to bypass old-fashioned legacy banking systems and provide swift support to borrowers.

In all, with the future of the global political space uncertain, more SMEs and lenders should use funding technology to stimulate economic growth. Technology has the potential to offer businesses access to the funding they need, as well as offering lenders the chance to easily find the perfect companies to invest in, and as such it is the perfect tool for improving the global financial outlook over the coming years.

By Taylor Wilman

 

Trump Says Tariff Roll-Back Reports Untrue

By Orbex

Equities Higher on Trade Hopes

Late on Friday, markets were boosted by news that Trump had agreed to roll-back tariffs on Chinese goods as part of the effort to get a trade deal signed. However, over the weekend, Trump stated that the reports were untrue and clarified that he has not agreed to roll-back tariffs on Chinese goods.

The reports emanated from comments made by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce saying that the two countries had agreed to remove tariffs in stages. This was to allow for an end to the trade war which has gone on for 18 months and ravaged both economies.

Chia Demands Tariff Removal

China has consistently demanded that tariffs be rolled back as part of its criteria for doing a deal. With the US having recently postponed the latest scheduled set of tariffs, many were hopeful that negotiations were leading in the right direction. However, Trump has made it clear that wide-scale rolling back of tariffs is not on the cards, at least not yet.

Trump Says Roll-Back Reports Not True

Speaking with reporters, Trump said:

“They’d like to have a rollback but I’ve not agreed to anything. China would like to get somewhat of a rollback, not a complete rollback because they know I won’t do it.

We’re getting along very well with China. They want to make a deal … frankly, they want to make a deal a lot more than I do. I’m very happy right now, we’re taking in billions of dollars.”

Trade Deal Expected to Be Signed This Weekend

Currently, traders are waiting for Trump and Xi to sign the deal agreed upon in early October. The hope is that this will occur when they meet in Chile at the end of the week.

Trump has been pushing for a November signing and is keen to move on to discussions for “phase two” of the deal. However, the US has warned China that any further delays will be met with consequences.

He has stated that as of December 15th, if a deal is yet to be signed, it will apply new tariffs to $156 billion of Chinese goods. With the threat of further tariffs looming, traders are hopeful that China will cooperate, avoiding the need for further tariffs.

Two-Way Risk

Equities markets have been well support over recent weeks as headlines and comments around the talks continue to suggest a deal is coming. Given the built-up level of expectation in the market, if China does not sign off on the deal this week, we are likely to see traders react with disappointment.

This could see some sharp reversals in equities markets.

Central banks and the IMF are all warning of the damage the trade war is causing to the global economy. So, there is a major focus on ending the tariffs and repairing global trade. If talks falter once again, it will be very damaging for investor confidence. In fact, it will likely leading to a period of risk aversion across markets.

Technical Perspective

The rally in SPX500 over the last two weeks has seen price breaking out to fresh, all-time highs. However, with the index is currently testing the top of the local bullish channel, we could see some short-term correction.

The 3021.82 level will be the key zone to watch. While price holds above there, further upside is likely. However, back below there and focus will shift to the 2939.71 level with the rising channel low in the vicinity also.

By Orbex

 

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing – Part I

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 and 2007. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

SP500 Weekly Index Chart in 2006-2007

First, we’ll start with the ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures contract).  Pay attention to the MAGENTA arcs we’ve drawn on this chart that highlight the continued new highs reached throughout 2006 and 2007.  Pay attention to the price rotation and volatility that started to happen near the absolute peak in July and October 2007 – just before the massive price collapse began.  Notice how the technical indicators had been suggesting that price was weakening quite extensively since the beginning of 2007 and more aggressively after July 2007.  Pay very close attention to the last peak on this chart and how a very deep price correction setup a new price high in a very tight FLAG formation just before the breakdown event.

Price Of Gold Weekly Chart in 2006-2007

This Gold chart from the same time period highlights how Gold anticipated the market weakness by rallying up to a level near $750 in May 2016 – then retraced nearly $200 before forming a lengthy price bottom/base.  Gold, acting as a safe-haven for investors, rallied almost 94% in the 24 months prior to this peak in 2006.  It rallied another 256% (at the ultimate peak) from the low point established in June 2006.  The process of this rally was an extended base/bottom in Gold between the base/bottom in 2006 and the renewed uptrend that started just before the end of 2007 (just before the markets started crashing).

Compare SP500 Index 2006-07 to 2018-19

We believe the current uptrend in the US stock market is acting in a very similar price formation to what we’ve highlighted in the 2006-07 market “zombie-land melt-up”.  We believe that investors are piling into the US stock market when price weakness is clearly being illustrated by the technical and fundamental data.  We believe a capital shift has continued to pile money into the US stock market as foreign investors pile onto the backs of other investors seeking safety and security within a stronger US economy.

Concluding Thoughts:

We believe the current Zombie-land market is anticipating a price roll-over event (reversion) and that technical and fundamental data supports this analysis.  We believe the credit/debt expansion of the past 8+ years has fueled a massive bubble that may result in a deep price correction if given the right circumstances and events.  We believe this upside price move in the US markets, which are setting up near the exact same time-frame as the 2008 price collapse, maybe a very stern warning for traders and investors – BE PREPARED.

In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight the similarities setting up in the current market “Zombie-land” and what happened in 2006~2008.  The expansion of the credit market over the past 8+ years has been extensive throughout the globe.  The biggest difference this time is that risk may come from foreign markets vs. from within the US.

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and move many months in advance.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

Will a break at 13,300 trigger a buying wave and push the DAX30 CFD up to the all-time highs?

By Admiral Markets

Economic events November

Source: Economic Events November 11, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

After bullish performance over the last week of trading, there seems to be a higher chance of a slow start into the new week.

Due to the “Veterans Day” bank holiday in the US, the US Fixed Income Markets will not be open for regular trading hours, indicating that trading volume will be lower than on average. That’s noteworthy because of the fact that yields have been a principal driver of price action in the last days, and with no impulses to be expected from this end, volatility should stay low.

From a technical perspective, the picture in the DAX30 CFD on H1 stays bullish and the Long sequence stays intact as long as the German index trades above 13,100 points. Only a break lower would darken the technical picture from a short-term perspective, activating the region around 12,970/13,000 points as a first target.

On the upside, the region around 13,300 points stays in focus: a break higher could initiate a Short-squeeze to around 13,500 points in the days to come. One main driver here could be the small expiration in DAX options next Friday. Data from EUREX shows an elevated Open Interest of Short Calls around 13,300 points and then around 13,500 points, meaning that a break above 13,300 could trigger a wave of market participants being in a need to hedge their Short exposure by buying the DAX:

DAX30 CFDs - Hourly chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between October 22, 2019, to November 8, 2019). Accessed: November 8, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

DAX30 CFD-Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between August 2, 2018, to November 8, 2019). Accessed: November 8, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

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By Admiral Markets

Rising tensions in Hong Kong drive equities lower

By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

  • Asian stocks tumble on rising tensions in Hong Kong
  • Investors continue to monitor trade talks
  • Gold falls the most in two years

The closing of US equities at record highs on Friday did not seem to influence the market’s direction in Asia this morning. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 2% in early trade while China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites both fell more than 1%.

Escalating violence in Hong Kong is once again putting global investors on the defensive. The 12% rally in HSI since bottoming out in August was mainly driven by global risk-on sentiment. If the situation deteriorates further, it will not only drag local equities lower but the region as a whole. That’s the kind of reaction we’re seeing today on reports that two protesters were shot by police at a mass demonstration.

Unpredictability of trade talks

Global risk assets have been trending higher over the past five weeks on signs of progress towards a phase one trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies, which is supposed to put an end to the trade war. Hopes are still high that a deal will be struck in the upcoming days, but the content of this deal remains unclear.

Last week, we received conflicting messages from both sides. First, there was confusion about when and where the deal would be signed.  Later, a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman stated that the US and China have agreed to proportionally roll back tariffs on each other’s goods. However, on Friday President Trump said he had not yet agreed to roll back any of the tariffs already imposed. These mixed messages reveal a clear division within the White House administration, but investors remain optimistic a deal will be struck. The key question now is how much of that deal is already priced in? At this stage the risk of disappointment is very high, especially if a trade deal does not include a significant rollback of previous tariffs.

Gold experienced worst week since 2017

With US equities rising to new highs, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that gold has been punished. The precious metal closed last week 3.6% lower, as US 10-year Treasury yields approached 2%. What’s more interesting in the bonds markets is that Treasury yield curve has steepened the most since June with 2-year/10-year spread reaching 26.7 basis points.

If this trend of rising bond yields and equity markets persist, gold will likely remain under pressure. That said, some long-term investors will see the dip in gold prices as an opportunity to accumulate positions.

US Week Ahead

Investors will continue monitoring US-China trade developments very closely this week, as any headlines coming through the wires will have an impact on asset prices.

On the data front, Friday’s US retail sales is the key economic piece of data to watch. In September, retail sales unexpectedly shrank 0.3% while it was expected to rise by the same amount. The US consumer contributes 70% to the country’s GDP and if there are any signs consumers are reluctant to spend, then it’s a big problem for the world’s largest economy. One data point is not enough to judge that spending behavior has changed, but two or three months of poor data will be problematic.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


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