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Boeing’s Starliner is about to launch – if successful, the test represents an important milestone for commercial spaceflight

By Wendy Whitman Cobb, Air University

If all goes well late on May 6, 2024, NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams will blast off into space on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. Launching from the Kennedy Space Center, this last crucial test for Starliner will test out the new spacecraft and take the pair to the International Space Station for about a week.

Part of NASA’s commercial crew program, this long-delayed mission will represent the vehicle’s first crewed launch. If successful, it will give NASA – and in the future, space tourists – more options for getting to low Earth orbit.

From my perspective as a space policy expert, Starliner’s launch represents another significant milestone in the development of the commercial space industry. But the mission’s troubled history also shows just how difficult the path to space can be, even for an experienced company like Boeing.

GMT140_EHDC3 Files_1157

By NASA – https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/52096388014/, Public Domain, Link

Origins and development

Following the retirement of NASA’s space shuttle in 2011, NASA invited commercial space companies to help the agency transport cargo and crew to the International Space Station.

In 2014, NASA selected Boeing and SpaceX to build their respective crew vehicles: Starliner and Dragon.

Boeing’s vehicle, Starliner, was built to carry up to seven crew members to and from low Earth orbit. For NASA missions to the International Space Station, it will carry up to four at a time, and it’s designed to remain docked to the station for up to seven months. At 15 feet, the capsule where the crew will sit is slightly bigger than an Apollo command module or a SpaceX Dragon.

Boeing designed Starliner to be partially reusable to reduce the cost of getting to space. Though the Atlas V rocket it will take to space and the service module that supports the craft are both expendable, Starliner’s crew capsule can be reused up to 10 times, with a six-month turnaround. Boeing has built two flightworthy Starliners to date.

Starliner’s development has come with setbacks. Though Boeing received US$4.2 billion from NASA, compared with $2.6 billion for SpaceX, Boeing spent more than $1.5 billion extra in developing the spacecraft.

On Starliner’s first uncrewed test flight in 2019, a series of software and hardware failures prevented it from getting to its planned orbit as well as docking with the International Space Station. After testing out some of its systems, it landed successfully at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.

In 2022, after identifying and making more than 80 fixes, Starliner conducted a second uncrewed test flight. This time, the vehicle did successfully dock with the International Space Station and landed six days later in New Mexico.

The inside of a Starliner holds a few astronauts. Crew members first trained for the launch in a simulator.

Still, Boeing delayed the first crewed launch for Starliner from 2023 to 2024 because of additional problems. One involved Starliner’s parachutes, which help to slow the vehicle as it returns to Earth. Tests found that some links in those parachute lines were weaker than expected, which could have caused them to break. A second problem was the use of flammable tape that could pose a fire hazard.

A major question stemming from these delays concerns why Starliner has been so difficult to develop. For one, NASA officials admitted that it did not provide as much oversight for Starliner as it did for SpaceX’s Dragon because of the agency’s familiarity with Boeing.

And Boeing has experienced several problems recently, most visibly with the safety of its airplanes. Astronaut Butch Wilmore has denied that Starliner’s problems reflect these troubles.

But several of Boeing’s other space activities beyond Starliner have also experienced mechanical failures and budget pressure, including the Space Launch System. This system is planned to be the main rocket for NASA’s Artemis program, which plans to return humans to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo era.

Significance for NASA and commercial spaceflight

Given these difficulties, Starliner’s success will be important for Boeing’s future space efforts. Even if SpaceX’s Dragon can successfully transport NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, the agency needs a backup. And that’s where Starliner comes in.

Following the Challenger explosion in 1986 and the Columbia shuttle accident in 2003, NASA retired the space shuttle in 2011. The agency was left with few options to get astronauts to and from space. Having a second commercial crew vehicle provider means that NASA will not have to depend on one company or vehicle for space launches as it previously had to.

Perhaps more importantly, if Starliner is successful, it could compete with SpaceX. Though there’s no crushing demand for space tourism right now, and Boeing has no plans to market Starliner for tourism anytime soon, competition is important in any market to drive down costs and increase innovation.

More such competition is likely coming. Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser is planning to launch later this year to transport cargo for NASA to the International Space Station. A crewed version of the space plane is also being developed for the next round of NASA’s commercial crew program. Blue Origin is working with NASA in this latest round of commercial crew contracts and developing a lunar lander for the Artemis program.

Though SpaceX has made commercial spaceflight look relatively easy, Boeing’s rocky experience with Starliner shows just how hard spaceflight continues to be, even for an experienced company.

Starliner is important not just for NASA and Boeing, but to demonstrate that more than one company can find success in the commercial space industry. A successful launch would also give NASA more confidence in the industry’s ability to support operations in Earth’s orbit while the agency focuses on future missions to the Moon and beyond.

About the Author:

Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

29 Apr

European indices grow on the ECB’s “dovish” position. Quarterly reports of mega-companies support the broad market

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.40% (for the week +0.32%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 1.02% (for the week +2.26%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 2.03% (for the week +3.45%). Positive earnings results from Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are helping to boost the overall market. Alphabet is up more than 10% after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Additionally, Microsoft is up more than 2% after reporting better-than-consensus earnings. Shares of chip companies also jumped after tech megacaps, including Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Microsoft, said they will continue to increase investment in artificial intelligence, which should boost demand for AI chip companies. Stock indices maintained gains despite economic news from the US, which showed that March personal spending and the March core PCE deflator rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. On the downside, Intel (INTC) fell more than 10% after forecasting weaker-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

US personal spending for March rose by 0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.6% m/m. Personal income for March rose by 0.5% m/m, which aligns with expectations. The US core PCE deflator for March, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, came in at 2.8% y/y, unchanged from February and above expectations of 2.7% y/y. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April was revised down 0.7% to 77.2, weaker than expectations of no change at 77.9.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.36% (for the week +2.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.89% (for the week +0.25%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.56% (for the week +3.10%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.75% (for the week +3.09%).

The Eurozone M3 Money Supply for March grew more than expected, which is negative for the euro. March 1-year ECB inflation expectations fell to 3.0% from 3.1% in February, the lowest in two years. However, March’s 3-year inflation expectations were 2.5%, unchanged from February’s and above expectations of 2.4%. Swaps estimate the ECB’s chances of a 25 bps rate cut at its next meeting on June 6 at 88%. This is a growth factor for the European indices.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $83 a barrel on Monday, recouping some of last week’s gains. High US inflation further undermined sentiment around interest rate cuts, worsening the demand outlook. Investors now await the US central bank’s monetary policy decision this week, which is expected to keep borrowing costs at current high levels. The latest US PCE inflation data strengthened the dollar, increasing oil prices as dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.86%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.06% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 7.56% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.87%.

The Japanese yen strengthened 2% to 155 per dollar on Monday after falling to 160.2 earlier in the session. Markets saw this as a possible government intervention as Japanese banks are reportedly actively dumping dollars. Traders have been on alert for a possible intervention by Japanese authorities for some time as the yen has slumped to 34-year lows and lost more than 10% against the dollar this year.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.4% in April 2024 from 3.97% in the previous month. This was the highest inflation rate since January 2023, with food prices rising the most in eight months (4.32% vs. 4.05% in March).

S&P 500 (US500) 5,099.96 +51.54 (+1.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,239.66 +122.77 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 18,161.01 +243.73 (+1.36%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,139.83 +60.97 (+0.75%)

USD Index 106.09 +0.16 (+0.15%)

Important events today:

– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Stock Market News

28 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (4,474 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,350 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,985 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-6,827 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (-6,436 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,404 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (96 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (75 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (71 percent) and Nikkei 225 (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (75.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (48.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (57.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (72.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (62.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (60.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (46 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (34 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) and the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (25.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (45.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (41.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (7.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (17.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	41.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	34.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-18,000	23,471	-5,471
– Gross Longs:	89,831	150,091	24,178
– Gross Shorts:	107,831	126,620	29,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	5.2	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-29.9	-20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	67.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	77.0	8.0
– Net Position:	67,678	-189,951	122,273
– Gross Longs:	320,552	1,402,033	288,399
– Gross Shorts:	252,874	1,591,984	166,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.8	13.7	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.9	-45.8	9.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	62.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	70.5	13.2
– Net Position:	6,852	-7,730	878
– Gross Longs:	19,266	56,280	12,873
– Gross Shorts:	12,414	64,010	11,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	27.0	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.6	-6.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	55.3	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	62.5	12.3
– Net Position:	6,125	-18,478	12,353
– Gross Longs:	63,431	141,714	43,786
– Gross Shorts:	57,306	160,192	31,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	32.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-10.8	12.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	77.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	71.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-36,100	30,140	5,960
– Gross Longs:	72,411	371,751	27,723
– Gross Shorts:	108,511	341,611	21,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	39.8	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	9.7	6.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	69.6	24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	69.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-1,384	11	1,373
– Gross Longs:	922	10,929	3,849
– Gross Shorts:	2,306	10,918	2,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	30.3	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-3.2	-11.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.4	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	89.8	1.6
– Net Position:	-3,647	-1,739	5,386
– Gross Longs:	31,113	377,781	12,016
– Gross Shorts:	34,760	379,520	6,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	35.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-14.1	-17.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

26 Apr

Week Ahead: US500 braced for jam-packed week

By ForexTime

US500 ↓ 4% month-to-date

High impact events could rock index

Fed decision, earnings & NFP in focus

Key levels of interest at 5129, 5034 & 4970

Major breakout on horizon?

If you thought the last few days were eventful, wait until you see the lineup for the week ahead!

A mashup up of high-impact data, corporate earnings, and the Fed rate decision will be in focus:

Saturday, 27th April

CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 29th April

EU50: Eurozone economic & consumer confidence
GER40: Germany CPI
SG20: Singapore unemployment
CN50: Chinese megabank earnings

Tuesday, 30th April

AU200: Australia retail sales
CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
EU50: Eurozone CPI, GDP
GER40: Germany GDP, unemployment
JP225: Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales
TWN: Taiwan GDP
UK100: HSBC earnings
US500: Amazon earnings

Wednesday, 1st May

NZD: New Zealand unemployment, RBNZ financial stability report
GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
USD: US construction spending, ISM manufacturing
US500: Fed rate decision

Thursday, 2nd May

AUD: Australia building approvals, trade balance
EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
GER40: Germany S&P Manufacturing PMI
HK50: Hong Kong GDP
TWN: Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
GBP: UK holds local elections
USD: US factory orders, initial jobless claims
JPY: BoJ March meeting minutes
NAS100: Apple earnings

Friday, 3rd May

EUR: Eurozone unemployment
HK50: Hong Kong retail sales
SG20: Singapore retail sales
US500: US April jobs report, ISM services, Fed speech

Volatility could be the name of the game due to the scheduled releases and high-risk events.

The spotlight shines on the US500 which is down almost 4% month-to-date as of writing.

Note: US500 tracks the S&P 500 index – the benchmark used to measure the stock performance of the largest listed US companies.

Here are 4 reasons why the US500 could see more big moves:

1) Fed rate decisions

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week.

Despite the US economy growing less than expected in Q1, sticky inflation and hawkish comments by Fed officials have cooled Fed rate cut bets for 2024. Much attention will be directed towards the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s conference for fresh clues on the central bank’s next move.

Traders are currently pricing in only a 35% probability of a 25-basis point cut in July with this jumping to 75% by September.

Note: The incoming PCE report this afternoon could impact these odds.

Given how tech stocks account for roughly 29% of the S&P 500 weighting, the Fed decision could spark volatility.

Note: Tech stocks are influenced by interest rates because their value is based on earnings forecasted in the future.

2) Apple & Amazon earnings

Four of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech titans have already reported their earnings, with the spotlight now on Amazon and Apple in the week ahead.

Big tech earnings have satisfied expectations so far with stellar results from Microsoft and Alphabet boosting risk sentiment. The bar has been set high with investors looking for solid earnings from the remaining tech giants to keep the market rally alive. Given how Apple and Amazon are in the top 5 weighting of the S&P 500:

A set of positive earnings may push the index higher.

Should earnings miss forecasts, this could send the index lower.

3) US April NFP report

Markets expect the US economy to have created 250,000 jobs in April, compared to the 303,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.8% while average earnings are forecast to stay at 0.3% MoM.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could support the “higher for longer” narrative on rates, hitting the US500 as a result.

However, evidence of a cooling US jobs market could boost bets around lower US rates, which could support the US500.

4) Technical forces

The US500 looks noisy on the daily charts thanks to fundamental forces but bulls seem to be in the vicinity. Prices are trading above the 100-day SMA but resistance can be found at the 50-day SMA.

A strong breakout and daily close above the 50-day SMA could open a path towards 5200.

Should prices slip back below 5035, this could open a path towards the 100-day and possibly 4910.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

26 Apr

This “Bullish Buzz” Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years

Learn what the AIM Index reveals

By Elliott Wave International

Yes, there’s been a recent pickup in stock market volatility, but overall, bullish sentiment remains very much alive and well.

Indeed, here’s a Feb. 18 Yahoo! Finance headline:

A Bull Market is Here.

On April 9, a Fox Business headline reflects the views of a well-known investment manager:

Fed doesn’t matter in this bull market

An extreme in bullish sentiment also shows up in the Advisor and Investor Model, which is a very broad measure of market sentiment compiled by SentimenTrader.com. The model is also known as the AIM Index.

This chart and commentary from the April Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, provide insight:

The AIM Index constantly fluctuates between extremes; what’s unparalleled about it now is how long it’s been pinned to the top of its range. After hitting its highest possible reading of 1.0 on December 19, it stayed above .90 for the entirety of the first quarter for all but one week. This relentless bullish buzz is represented here by the index’s 20-week average. At 0.93, the April 2 reading is the highest in 53 years.

Yes, it’s possible that this dogged bullish sentiment could persist even longer. Yet, as you might imagine, Elliott Wave International considers extremes in market sentiment to be major red flags.

The April Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which analyzes major financial and cultural trends, reveals another cautionary sign via this chart and commentary:

As many pundits are saying, the market is not beyond the valuation of 2021, so what’s the problem? But that was the year of the most overvalued U.S. stock market of all time, from which broad indexes such as the Russell 2000 have not recovered. That optimism has returned to an equivalent level is a big deal. …

This is an especially critical time to keep on top of the stock market’s Elliott wave pattern.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, which is the definitive text on the subject. Here’s a quote from the book:

[Ralph N.] Elliott recognized that not news, but something else forms the patterns evident in the market. Generally speaking, the important analytical question is not the news per se, but the importance the market places or appears to place on the news. In periods of increasing optimism, the market’s apparent reaction to an item of news is often different from what it would have been if the market were in a downtrend. It is easy to label the progression of Elliott waves on a historical price chart, but it is impossible to pick out, say, the occurrences of war, the most dramatic of human activities, on the basis of recorded stock market action. The psychology of the market in relation to the news, then, is sometimes useful, especially when the market acts contrarily to what one would “normally” expect.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, you can get complimentary access by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This “Bullish Buzz” Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

20 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a huge jump by 137,028 contracts followed by the VIX (8,848 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,472 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,062 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (986 contracts) rounding out the positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell 2000 Mini (-10,835 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-3,282 contracts) also seeing lower spec bets for the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (83 percent) led the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (76 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (52 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently out of the stock markets.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (81.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (75.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (82.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (57.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (65.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (72.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (60.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (56.0 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (28 percent), the VIX (25 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (25.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (41.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.8 percent)