Archive for Stock Market News

Twitter, Gold/Silver, Goodyear & Rolls Royce lead Weekly Top Gainers/Losers

By IFCMarkets.com

Top Gainers – The World Market

Another aggravation of China-US relations led to the New Zealand and Australian dollars significant decline. China is the main buyer of minerals and agricultural products from Australia and New Zealand. US insists on China’s participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III). The greenback strengthened due to the Fed’s announcement of a possible rate hike in the future, rather than waiting for inflation to reach the 2% target. The Fed also doubts the need to increase the volume of the current quantitative easing program.

1.Twitter Inc., 16% – an American social network

2. XAUXAG, 13.7% – Gold vs Silver — a gold instrument “Gold vs Silver”

market sentiment ratio long short positions

 Top Losers – The World Market

1. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company – an American manufacturer of rubber tires for cars, trucks, buses and other wheeled vehicles

2. Rolls-Royce Group plc – a British manufacturer of aircraft equipment and power plants.

market sentiment ratio long short positions

 Top Gainers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. USDMXN, EURMXN – the growth of these charts means the strengthening of the US dollar and the euro against the Mexican peso.

2. USDNOK, USDZAR – the growth of these charts means the weakening of the Norwegian krone and the South African rand against the US dollar.

market sentiment ratio long short positions

 Top Losers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. AUDJPY, AUDUSD – the drop of these charts means the weakening of the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen and the US dollar.

2. NZDJPY, NZDUSD – the drop of these charts means the weakening of the New Zealand dollar against the euro, the Japanese yen and the US dollar.

market sentiment ratio long short positions
Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

Is The Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern?

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The Transportation Index, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.
  • Classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal “Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern” setting up.
  • We may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.

The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.  Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart).  Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.

IS RECENT ROTATION A TOPPING PATTERN OR JUST CONSOLIDATION?

Currently, the US stock market has rolled into a sideways/topping pattern.  After the peak in metals setup near August 7, 2020, the US stock market continued to rally a bit higher, then rotated lower on September 3, 2020.  The Transportation Index rolled over on September 3 but climbed higher less than 5 trading days later – breaking above the highs set before the COVID-19 peak.

We’ve suggested a “Bull Trap” pattern may be forming in the major markets and we’ve urged traders to cautious regarding the new price highs and appearance of a continued upside price rally.  The Bull Trap pattern, sometimes called a “Scouting Party”, happens when price breaks above resistance (or below support) briefly in an attempt to establish a new trend.  If price fails to find support after breaking above the previous resistance level, then it typically rotates lower and collapses back below the resistance level (attempting to find a lower support level).

If our research is correct, the recent rotation in the Transportation Index may suggest a Bull Trap pattern has setup and completed (with price falling back below the 11,440 level).  If this trend continues, we may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.

This Daily Transportation Index chart highlights our proprietary Fibonacci Price Modeling system and the key resistance level near 11,440 (in MAGENTA).  It also shows the Bull Trap setup near the recent highs.  Past Fibonacci Price Trigger levels near 9,800 and 9,200 suggest any downside price move may target these levels as current support.

This Transportation Index Weekly chart provides a bigger picture look at the Bull Trap setup.  The one aspect of the Weekly Transportation chart that we feel is critical is the 10,815 Bearish Price Trigger level from our Fibonacci Price Modeling System.  This level is key to understanding if and when the Transportation Index breaks a major weekly Fibonacci trigger level.  If price falls below the 10,815 level and manages to close below this level on an end-of-week basis, then we have confirmation that the longer term Fibonacci trigger level has confirmed a new bearish price trend.  Right now, we don’t have that confirmation.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

One other interesting pattern that has set up on the Weekly Transportation Index is the Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern.  This is a classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal pattern.  The term “three rivers” references the confluence of two rivers joining together (think of the strength and force of the water flow) to form a new “third river”.   The descriptive name of the pattern is designed to illustrate the nuanced strength that lies behind this price setup.  A three rivers pattern, once confirmed, is one of the more ominous topping patterns in Japanese Candlestick price theory.  It is usually associated with Doji and Hammer/Umbrella shaped price bars that are equally indicative of a price reversal.

In our past research, we authored a research article about Dow Theory and price trends that we believe should be reviewed by our friends and followers.  It clearly describes the “Down Price Trend” theory and our research team’s believe that recent weakness in the US stock market may prompt a new downside price trend.

At this time, we continue to urge our friends and followers to stay cautious of volatility and price rotation.  The markets are in the process of rotating – certainly.  The issue for all skilled technical traders right now is “will it find support or will it break down and start a new downside price trend?”.  Our researchers believe we know what will happen next, we are just waiting for technical confirmation from price activity.

Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades and avoid risk.  If you follow our research, you already know we have stayed well ahead of these trends and big price rotations in the US stock market.  What’s next is even more big trends and profits for those able to engage in the best trade setups.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter can ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth. My research and trading team are here to help you find better trades and navigate these incredibly crazy market trends.

While most of us have active trading accounts, our long-term investment and retirement accounts are equally at risk. We can also help you preserve and even grow your long term capital when things get ugly (likely now) with our Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals.  Don’t wait until it is too late – subscribe today!

Have a great weekend and stay safe and healthy!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only – read our FULL DISCLAIMER here. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

 

Stock gains could be temporary

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Asian stocks and currencies are enjoying some relief before the end the trading week, taking their cues from Wall Street’s advances on Thursday. US and European equity futures are pointing to gains at their respective opens, while the Dollar’s hold of the 94.0 handle is keeping Gold prices subdued below the $1900 line.

Equity bulls may be drawing comfort from reports that House Democrats are drafting a US$2.4 trillion stimulus plan, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have hinted their respective willingness to return to the negotiating table. While such signals are translating into a slight lift for risk assets for the time being, this upward pressure may prove fleeting.

At this juncture, it still appears unlikely that the next round of US fiscal stimulus would be passed before the elections, despite the Fed’s exhortations that the government has to do more to help the US economy get back on its feet. The absence of more support for the US economy would drastically disrupt its recovery momentum, especially in the next quarter; a risk that global investors are certainly aware of.

Overall, risk sentiment is still raw after investors had to bear witness to the steep declines in US equities this month, as benchmark indices are set to post their first monthly loss since March. Although the VIX index appears relatively tamed compared to the spike earlier in the month, market participants must remain vigilant and brace for potentially more volatility triggers over the near-term.

In the week ahead, market volatility may be fed via the political channel, as President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden engage each other in the upcoming US presidential debate. With just over five weeks until the elections, market participants are going to be increasingly politically-sensitive in the lead up to what is shaping up to be one of the most fraught battles for the White House.

And the spectre of political uncertainty may not end immediately after polling day. The fact that Republicans even had to vow to uphold a peaceful transition, should they lose the November vote, indicates that the risk of a delayed elections outcome is weighing heavily on the minds of investors. This suggests that significant gains for risk assets may not be assured until such a scenario is no longer a threat, leaving the tendency to book profits and pare down risk exposure as a potentially attractive proposition in the interim.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Equities advance cautiously after Wall Street rebound

By IFCMarkets.com

Top daily news

Global markets are edging higher currently after Wall Street rebound Thursday led by technology shares on reports Democrats in the US House of Representatives were working on a $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package that could be voted on next week. Shares of Google rose 0.95% outperforming market, with Apple gaining 1.02%.

Forex news

Currency Pair Change
EUR USD +0.05%
GBP USD +0.29%
USD JPY -0.02%
The Dollar strengthening has halted currently ahead of the US durable goods orders report at 16:30 CET today. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped 0.03% Thursday after Labor Department report above expected 870 thousand Americans filed for first-time benefits instead of forecast of 840,000. At the same time new single-family home sales rose 43% over year in August. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD reversed their sliding yesterday as Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose a fifth month, in line with expectations. Both Pound and euro are higher against the Dollar currently. Both yen and Australian dollar continued sliding yesterday against the greenback with the dynamics reversed for both currently.

Stock Market news

Indices Change
Dow Jones Index +0.54%
Nikkei Index +0.51%
Australian Stock Index +1.51%
Futures on three main US stock indexes are higher currently after rebounding Thursday. The three main US stock benchmarks recorded gains ranging from 0.2% to 0.4% despite Goldman Sachs cutting its US growth forecast for the fourth quarter in half, to 3% from 6%. European stock indexes are down today after ending lower Thursday. Asian indexes are moistly rising currently with Australia’s All Ordinaries ASX 200 Index leading gainers.

Commodity Market news

Commodities Change
Brent Crude Oil +0.57%
WTI Crude +0.72%
Brent is extending gains today. Oil prices rose yesterday after the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that US crude inventories fell for a second straight week by 1.6 million barrels. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended higher yesterday: October WTI rose 1% and is higher currently. November Brent crude closed 0.4% higher at $41.94 a barrel on Thursday.

Gold Market News

Metals Change
Gold -0.28%
Gold prices are retracing higher today . December gold lost Thursday settling 0.5% lower at $1876.90 an ounce.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

JinkoSolar Shares Rise 21% on Q2 Earnings and Positive FY Outlook

Source: Streetwise Reports   09/23/2020

JinkoSolar shares established a new 52-week high after the company reported Q2/20 financial results that included a 22% increase in year-over-year total revenue.

Solar panels

Solar module manufacturer JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. (JKS:NYSE) today announced unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2020.

The company’s CEO Kangping Chen remarked, “JinkoSolar delivered a strong quarter with total revenue exceeding guidance…Module shipments hit a new high of 4,469 MW, an increase of 31.0% sequentially and 32.0% year-over-year. Total revenues during the quarter were US$1.20 billion, an increase of 16.0% (excluding the impact from disposal of the solar power plants in Q1/20) sequentially and 22.2% year-over-year, while gross profit was US$214.1 million. We expect orders for Q3/20 and Q4/20 to increase, with total solar module shipments expected to be in the range between 5-5.3 GW for Q3/20 and our guidance for total shipments for the FY/20 remains unchanged at 18-20 GW.”

“The market continues to consolidate due to the challenging economic environment and strong competition within the industry, while the production capacity and infrastructure of integrated manufacturers remain resilient to risks and price fluctuations….As economies have started to rebound in many markets, we believe global demand will eventually accelerate and we are well positioned to benefit from the momentum,” Chen added.

Chen highlighted that this week the company announced its plan to list its principal operating subsidiary Jiangxi Jinko on the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s Sci-Tech innovation board, or the STAR Market. The firm reiterated its commitment to maintaining the firm’s listing on the NYSE, but believes that the STAR listing will help raise the firm’s profile and attract new investors globally and in China.

The company reported that in Q2/20 total revenues decreased by 0.4% to RMB8.45 billion (US$1.20 billion), compared to RMB8.48 billion in Q1/20, but increased by 22.2% compared to RMB6.91 billion in Q2/19.

The firm noted that if the impact from the disposal of two solar power plants in Mexico in the Q1/20 is excluded, the then Q2/20 revenue increased by 16.0% from RMB7.29 billion in Q1/20. The company explained that the sequential increases were mostly attributable to an increase in the shipment of solar modules and were partially offset by a decline in their average selling prices.

The company stated that net income attributable to the company’s ordinary shareholders was RMB318.0 million (US$45.0 million) in Q2/20, compared with RMB282.4 million in Q1/20 and RMB125.4 million in Q2/19.

The firm noted that “basic and diluted earnings per ordinary share were RMB1.79 (US$0.25) and RMB1.64 (US$0.23), respectively, during Q2/20, which translates into basic and diluted earnings per ADS of RMB7.16 (US$1.01) and RMB6.55 (US$0.93), respectively.”

The firm reported on recent operational results and stated that total solar module shipments in Q2/20 were 4,469 MW. The company advised that as of June 30, 2020, its in-house annual mono wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity was 20 GW, 11GW and 25 GW, respectively. The firm indicated that it expects strong market demand to continue until the end December 2020. The company noted that the COVID-19 has negatively affected demand and caused supply chain difficulties, which is accelerating industry consolidation.

JinkoSolar additionally provided some Q3/20 and FY/20 forward guidance. The firm stated that it expects total solar module shipments in Q3/20 to be in the range of 5.0-5.3 GW with total revenue expected to be in the range of US$1.22-1.30 billion. Gross margin in Q3/20 is expected to range between 17% and 19%.

For FY/20, the company stated that it expects total solar module shipments of 18-20 GW. The firm added that it estimates that its annual mono wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity will reach 20 GW, 11 GW and 30 GW, respectively, by year-end 2020.

JinkoSolar stated that it is one of the world’s largest solar module manufacturers. The company markets and distributes its solar products and services to international utility, commercial and residential customers in base in numerous countries including China, Japan, Germany, U.K., the U.S. and many others. The firm advised that it owns 14 overseas subsidiaries and operates seven productions facilities globally.

JinkoSolar started the day with a market capitalization of around $1.2 billion with approximately 44.43 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 20.8%. JKS shares opened higher today at $28.42 (+$0.76, +2.75%) over yesterday’s $27.66 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this morning of $33.63. The stock has traded today between $28.30 and $33.67 per share and is currently trading at $33.54 (+$5.89, +21.29%).

Disclosure:
1) Stephen Hytha compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

California-Based Biotech Receives COVID-19 Trial Clearance

Source: Streetwise Reports   09/23/2020

The timeline and next steps for Equillium’s proposed Phase 3 clinical study are outlined in an H.C. Wainwright & Co. report.

In a Sept. 21 research note, H.C. Wainwright analyst Ram Selvaraju reported that Equillium Inc. (EQ:NASDAQ) received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to advance its COVID-19 clinical trial.

Selvaraju relayed what is now known about the program. Equillium intends to launch a global Phase 3 trial evaluating itolizumab (EQ001) as a treatment for patients with the coronavirus and admitted to the hospital.

The California-based biotech intends for the study to start in Q4/20, but it must first finalize the study protocol and submit an investigational new drug (IND) application to the FDA. Equillium expects to complete the latter in October 2020 and, also, apply to various government agencies for study funding.

In Equillium’s pre-IND meeting, as part of the Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program, the FDA noted that if the primary and key secondary endpoints are met in the trial then itolizumab may qualify for a biologic license application. Details have yet to be announced other than the trial will be randomized, double blind, placebo controlled and conducted in the U.S. and other, as yet to be determined, countries.

Selvaraju indicated that H.C. Wainwright expects a fast timeline for clinical development of itolizumab in COVID-19-related respiratory conditions. This is due to the urgency surrounding development of a COVID-19 vaccine, the ease in finding study participants in the U.S. and the likely small number of enrollees required.

“We have modeled future sales of itolizumab in treatment of COVID-19-infected individuals who manifest breathing difficulties and must be given supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation,” Selvaraju noted.

H.C. Wainwright estimates more than 12 million people will become infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in 2021 and the number will increase to close to 19 million in 2022 and then drop off.

“We thus believe that itolizumab could be developed rapidly for treatment of COVID-19-related respiratory complications and might be launched late next year pursuant to an emergency use authorization certification from the FDA,” commented Selvaraju.

The analyst also reported that Equillium presented data at the virtual European Respiratory Society International Congress 2020 that indicate the CD6-ALCAM pathway may contribute to asthma and, therefore, is a potential viable target for therapy in patients with an uncontrolled form of the condition. Data also showed that elevated levels of soluble ALCAM were seen in the sputum of patients with severe asthma and high eosinophil levels in the sputum. As such, studies are being done to pursue this as a possible biomarker.

H.C. Wainwright has a Buy rating and a $22 per share target price on Equillium. The stock is now trading at about $6.04 per share.

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

Disclosures from H.C. Wainwright & Co., Equillium, Inc., Company Update, September 21, 2020

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

I, Raghuram Selvaraju, Ph.D., certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Equillium, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of August 31, 2020 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Equillium, Inc.

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest in of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The firm or its affiliates received compensation from Equillium, Inc. for non-investment banking services in the previous 12 months.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Equillium, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months
before, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Equillium, Inc. during the past 12 months.

The Firm does not make a market in Equillium, Inc. as of the date of this research report.

US stocks near correction territory; is it time to turn bullish?

By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Equity markets sold off aggressively on Wednesday dragging the S&P 500 2.4% lower for the day and the index is now down nearly 9% from its record high set at the start of the month. We are almost in correction territory for the world’s most followed stock market, which is defined as a 10% fall from its latest peak. Meanwhile the tech heavy Nasdaq composite is already in one, having lost 12% in value from its August highs.

Investors who missed the six-month rally since March may find it compelling to dive in now as many stocks have corrected their excessive valuations, especially on the Tech front. The likes of Tesla, Apple and Amazon have been dragged 15% to 30% lower in a matter of three weeks. The selloff however has been broader this time, with the energy sector back to the April levels when Oil futures contracts fell into negative territory for the first time ever.

If the latest selloff is just about the removal of froth and a healthy correction, it may indicate we are near a bottom and it’s time to reaccumulate stocks. This approach would be based on the notion that the US and the global economy will continue heading in the right direction towards a full recovery. And with central banks across the globe remaining extremely generous with their policies, we should not worry about some bumps along the road.

However, the risks of a stalling recovery are growing as spikes in Covid-19 cases surge across Europe and expectations are for similar trends in the US if no action is taken. The virus continues to be winning at this stage and there are no clear answers as to when a vaccine will be delivered.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some of his colleagues are pressing Congress for more fiscal stimulus, in a sign that monetary policy cannot do much more to support the economy.  But heading into the Presidential election and given how divided Congress is, the chances of delivering a stimulus package soon is fading. Add to this President Trump’s refusal to commit to a peaceful handover of power if he loses the election on 3 November and it all makes great ingredients for extreme uncertainty and volatility in asset prices.

Overall, we continue to see the risks skewed to the downside and more volatility in the next two months, so despite the recent correction in prices, it does not look tempting to turn overly bullish. Unless Congress surprises us with another convincing round of fiscal stimulus, it will be wise to wait for more attractive valuations.

Gold is another asset that has been sold aggressively over the past four days. This is mainly due to the stronger Dollar, a slight increase in real yields and a break below the $1,900 support level. Expect Gold to gain some traction here as its one of the few assets available to hedge against future expected volatility and the prolonged period of low interest rates.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Nd100 Analysis: Nd100 falls after mixed data

By IFCMarkets.com

Nd100 falls after mixed data

Bears have gained the upper hand in US stock market as weak economic data point to slowing growth of US economy. Markit reports yesterday signaled a slower pace of growth in September. The flash reading for composite purchasing managers index from IHS slipped to 54.4 in September from 54.6 in the prior month. It was due to slowing expansion in services sector as flash services purchasing managers index inched down to 54.6 from 55 in August. However the flash manufacturing index rose to 53.5 in September from 53.1 in the prior month. And Randal Quarles, the Fed’s vice chairman, said that continued support of Congress and monetary authorities will be required to sustain a robust recovery. However lawmakers cannot agree on additional stimulus measures and investors see dwindling likelihood of another aid package before presidential election. Weak economic data are bearish for Nd100.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Sell
Buy stop Below 10675.86
Stop loss Above 11547.67

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

S&P 500 flirts with technical correction

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

The September selloff in US stocks doesn’t seem to be letting up.

The S&P 500 is now flirting with a technical correction, which is when the price of an asset falls 10 percent or more from its recent high. The US benchmark equity index is now about 0.4 percentage points away from meeting that criteria, headed for its 100-day simple moving average (MA), with its futures flat during the Asian morning session.

Wednesday’s US session also saw the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) posting its first daily loss so far this week, leaning further into its correction. The tech-heavy index is now 10.55 percent lower on a month-to-date basis, and has fallen by around 13 percent from its record high. The NDX also appears set on a path towards its 100-day simple moving average, although Nasdaq 100 minis are noticeably undecided about whether to extend losses at the time of writing. Still, its 50-day counterpart now provides immediate resistance.

Note that the respective 14-day relative strength indexes for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have yet to hit the 30 threshold, a level which denotes oversold conditions. That suggests that US stocks could yet see more declines over the near-term.

Investors are coming to terms with the idea that the next round of US fiscal stimulus won’t arrive before the US elections, despite the repeated stresses by Fed officials that more government financial support is needed in order to sustain the still-nascent economic recovery. The spectre of drawn-out political uncertainty even after the November 3rd elections is also casting a huge dark cloud over market sentiment.

Yet judging by some indicators, some market participants don’t seem too particularly alarmed. The VIX index, which is widely seen as Wall Street’s fear gauge, has actually moderated since making a run towards the 40 level earlier this month. The VIX now reads below 30, and is testing its 200-day simple moving average, which is also serving as its immediate resistance line. The CBOE’s put options to call options ratio is still around half compared to levels seen during the market crash in March.

Equity bulls and bear are expected to continue duking it out in dictating how much longer the current selloff will persist. Although the longer-term investor will be heartened by the Fed’s lower-for-longer rates mantra, which should be supportive for stocks for years to come, perhaps they’ll just have to weather these near-term bumps along the way. At the time of writing, the FXTM trader sentiment remains net long on both the SP500m as well as the ND100m.

 

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Global equities’ retreat intact

By IFCMarkets.com

Top daily news

Downdraft continues in stock markets currently after a slump on Wednesday as Fed chair Powell told interest rates would remain low until at least 2024 and “there is a long way to go” for recovery from the economic downturn. Large capitalization technology shares led losses with Apple falling 4.2% as UBS downgraded Apple shares to neutral from buy. Tesla fell -10.34% as Elon Musk said that some of the innovations showcased at “Battery Day” event were “close to working” and some three years away from fruition.

Forex news

Currency Pair Change
EUR USD -0.03%
GBP USD -0.07%
USD JPY -0.02%
The Dollar strengthening continues currently ahead of the US Labor Department report at 16:30 CET expected to show 845 thousand Americans likely sought unemployment benefits over the last week, ahead of Fed chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 18:00 CET . The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, rose 0.4% Wednesday despite a decline in Markit’s September composite purchasing managers index flash reading to 54.4 in September from 54.6 in the prior month, signaling a slower pace of growth, while House Price Index rose to 1% over month in July from 0.4%. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD continued sliding yesterday despite Markit flash eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index’s rise to 53.7 from 51.7, while the services PMI dropped to 47.6 from 51.9 in September. Both pairs are lower currently. AUD/USD continued climbing while USD/JPY kept sliding yesterday with the dynamics reversed for AUD/USD currently.

Stock Market news

Indices Change
Dow Jones Index -0.1%
Nikkei Index -1.11%
Hang Seng Index -1.73%
Futures on three main US stock indexes are down currently after tumbling on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve speakers confirmed interest rates would be kept on hold through to at least 2023 until inflation reaches 2% sustainably, though warning US economy was far from recovery. The three main US stock indexes recorded losses ranging from 1.9% to 3.0%. European stock indexes are mixed currently after advancing Wednesday despite a decline in euro-zone composite purchasing managers index to 50.1 in September from 51.9 in August. Both pairs are lower currently. Asian indexes are down today led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index .

Commodity Market news

Commodities Change
Brent Crude Oil -0.03%
WTI Crude -0.06%
Brent is pulling back today after reports Iraq expects to reach an agreement soon with the OPEC+ group over increasing Iraq’s crude oil exports. US Energy Information Administration reported US crude inventory fell by 1.6 million barrels last week. Prices ended higher Wednesday. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained: November WTI rose 0.3% but is lower currently. November Brent crude closed 0.1% higher at $41.77 a barrel on Wednesday.

Gold Market News

Metals Change
Gold -0.39%
Gold prices are extending losses today. December gold lost 2.1% to $1868.40 an ounce on Wednesday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com