Soft Commodities

Archive for Soft Commodities

23 Apr

Robusta Coffee: hovers near record highs!

By ForexTime

FXTM launches 10 new commodities

Robusta Coffee near all-time high

2nd biggest gainer YTD in FXTM’s commodity universe

Prices ↑ over 35% since start of 2024

Key levels of interest at $4040, $4130 and $4280

FXTM’s new Robusta Coffee commodity is flirting near all-time highs!

Prices rallied to fresh records last week as fundamentals fuelled concerns over tight global supplies.

Note: Prices are trading roughly 4% away from all-time highs.

Before we take a deep dive into the world of Robusta coffee, here are the basics:

What is Robusta Coffee?

Robusta coffee bean is often used for expresso-based drinks and accounts for roughly 40% of the world’s coffee production.

What does FXTM’s Robusta Coffee track?

FXTM’s Robusta Coffee tracks the ICE US Robusta Coffee futures, the world benchmark for producers of Robusta coffee.

Coffee of this variety is grown mainly in Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, Uganda and India.

The lowdown…

Robusta coffee prices have been on a tear!

The commodity has gained over 35% since the start of 2024 thanks to fundamental forces.

Negative factors in the form of severe weather, aging trees and freight disruptions continue to fuel fears about a global shortage of this coffee variety.

This in turn has sparked panic buying by roasters, further fuelling Robusta’s upside gains.

The bigger picture

Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robusta, accounting for roughly 35% of global output.

Heatwaves and ageing trees are expected to hit crop yields, with concerns rising over possible water shortages for irrigation hurting output of the next season.

Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer of Robusta is also facing its trials. Adverse weather conditions are also threatening output, for the country that produces around 28% of global output.

Essentially, there are concerns over the amount of Robusta left in Brazil as the 2024 harvest approaches.

What does this mean?

A combination of negative factors continues to impact output from the world’s two largest producers of Robusta coffee.

This development could mean more gains for the commodity which is trading near all-time highs.

And…the technicals

Prices seem to be in a range on the H1 charts with support around $4130 and resistance at $4280.

Although the path of least resistance points north, a move lower could be on the cards before bulls jump back into the scene.

Potential support levels can be found at $4130, $4040 and $3980.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Soft Commodities

20 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (9,230 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,276 contracts) and Coffee (2,508 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-43,130 contracts), Soybean Oil (-23,914 contracts), Cotton (-20,347 contracts), Corn (-14,666 contracts), Soybeans (-13,416 contracts), Wheat (-10,500 contracts), Live Cattle (-5,960 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,073 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

On the downside, Soybeans (6 percent), Corn (8 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Sugar (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (7.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.8 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.6 percent)
Soybeans (5.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (22.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.4 percent)
Live Cattle (25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (76.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.6 percent)
Cotton (48.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (63.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (45.6 percent)
Wheat (23.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.1 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Soybean Meal (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (19 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Soybeans (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-28 percent), Wheat (-13 percent) and Cocoa (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (22.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybeans (5.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (19.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-18.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (18.8 percent)
Cotton (-36.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-22.3 percent)
Cocoa (-9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-6.4 percent)
Wheat (-12.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -204,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	45.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	31.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-204,857	214,170	-9,313
– Gross Longs:	278,571	688,963	157,042
– Gross Shorts:	483,428	474,793	166,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.6	91.2	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.3	-1.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -43,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	55.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	61.5	10.2
– Net Position:	62,564	-50,279	-12,285
– Gross Longs:	186,059	448,732	70,228
– Gross Shorts:	123,495	499,011	82,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	94.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	9.3	-14.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	35.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	68.1	2.5
– Net Position:	76,071	-78,835	2,764
– Gross Longs:	98,292	86,582	8,934
– Gross Shorts:	22,221	165,417	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-22.8	11.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -171,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	58.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	37.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-171,893	179,718	-7,825
– Gross Longs:	94,418	503,032	56,980
– Gross Shorts:	266,311	323,314	64,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.0	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.0	5.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -34,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	50.2	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	44.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-34,546	33,327	1,219
– Gross Longs:	116,442	300,903	29,257
– Gross Shorts:	150,988	267,576	28,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.2	91.0	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-9.0	6.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	47.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	48.3	6.8
– Net Position:	-12,832	-2,352	15,184
– Gross Longs:	102,248	223,843	46,819
– Gross Shorts:	115,080	226,195	31,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	76.8	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-19.1	7.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	37.4	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	50.6	12.4
– Net Position:	43,011	-35,975	-7,036
– Gross Longs:	95,527	102,062	26,945
– Gross Shorts:	52,516	138,037	33,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	78.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.9	34.3	-11.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	32.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	49.2	10.6
– Net Position:	56,491	-49,252	-7,239
– Gross Longs:	120,485	97,818	24,451
– Gross Shorts:	63,994	147,070	31,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.2	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-18.7	-9.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	38.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	65.4	5.4
– Net Position:	52,329	-55,943	3,614
– Gross Longs:	83,151	77,269	14,522
– Gross Shorts:	30,822	133,212	10,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	52.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.7	36.6	-31.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	33.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	59.1	4.1
– Net Position:	33,835	-40,494	6,659
– Gross Longs:	55,310	53,725	13,258
– Gross Shorts:	21,475	94,219	6,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	51.4	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	7.8	14.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	36.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.4	20.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-62,897	61,586	1,311
– Gross Longs:	118,774	141,027	31,794
– Gross Shorts:	181,671	79,441	30,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	72.5	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.7	16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

16 Apr

New FXTM commodity hits all-time high!

By ForexTime

FXTM launches 10 new commodities

Cocoa hits fresh record high

Biggest gainer YTD in FXTM’s commodity universe

Prices up over 150% since the start of 2024

Firmly bullish on H4/H1 timeframe

This week, FXTM launched 10 new commodities!

This now brings FXTM’s tally to 13 different commodities to trade from.

And Cocoa has certainly hijacked our attention, jumping to a fresh all-time high on Monday.

The commodity posted its highest-ever intraday price at $11345.56 (Monday, 15th April)!

Note: Cocoa is priced per metric ton (MT)

Before we take a deep dive into why Cocoa prices are skyrocketing, let’s cover some basics:

What is Cocoa?

Cocoa is refined from the seeds of a cacao tree, which is a key ingredient in chocolate production.

What does FXTM’s Cocoa track?

FXTM’s Cocoa tracks the ICE US Cocoa futures which is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market.

The lowdown…

Cocoa prices have seen extraordinary gains in recent months!

The commodity is up over 150% year-to-date as the industry faces a perfect storm.

A combination of bad weather, crop disease, and rising freight costs have led to sudden and aggressive increases in the price of Cocoa.

The bigger picture

Did you know the world’s two biggest producers of cocoa beans are based in West Africa?

The Ivory Coast and Ghana are the big boys when it comes to production, accounting for more than 50% of the world’s cocoa.

A weather phenomenon known as El Nino has been causing drier weather for these countries, negatively impacting harvest yields as a result.

It does not end here

Meanwhile, the world’s appetite for chocolate remains robust!

According to the International Cocoa Organization’s latest forecast for the 2023/2024 cocoa year, demand is set to outstrip supply by more than 300,000 tonnes.

What does this mean?

This could mean more gains for cocoa if demand continues to exceed supply which is anticipated to decline by almost 11% this year.

How about the technicals?

Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts with the path of least resistance pointing north.

However, a technical throwback could be in the works before bulls jump back into the scene.

Key support levels can be found at $10717, 10485 and the psychological $10000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Soft Commodities

13 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (16,375 contracts) with Lean Hogs (9,080 contracts), Wheat (7,860 contracts), Coffee (6,081 contracts) and Cocoa (1,237 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-16,089 contracts), Sugar (-11,767 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,085 contracts), Corn (-8,855 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,775 contracts) and Soybeans (-437 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Lean Hogs (73 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cotton (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (9 percent), Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (28.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (33.1 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.6 percent)
Live Cattle (31.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (65.1 percent)
Cotton (63.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.5 percent)
Cocoa (45.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.3 percent)
Wheat (31.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.7 percent)

Coffee & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (18 percent), Soybean Oil (18 percent) and Soybeans (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Wheat (-11 percent) and Cocoa (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.3 percent)
Coffee (21.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.6 percent)
Soybeans (7.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (21.9 percent)
Cotton (-22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.8 percent)
Cocoa (-6.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)