Archive for Soft Commodities

Grain Analysis: China hasn’t yet fulfilled the conditions of the trade deal with the US

By IFCMarkets.com

China hasn’t yet fulfilled the conditions of the trade deal with the US

China’s purchase of US grains and soybeans under the Phase 1 of the trade deal may be the main factor behind the possible increase in US grain and soybean prices. The US and China signed it at the beginning of this year. Under this agreement, China pledged to purchase US agricultural commodities worth $36.5 billion in 2020. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, it purchased food for only $ 8.6 billion in January-July. Of course, there is a risk that China will not fully comply with the terms of the trade deal. In particular, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue warned about this. However, if China does start to increase US grain purchases, this could be an additional boost to price increases.The second factor in their possible growth is the low grain harvest in the US Midwest this year due to heavy rains and spring floods.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 408
Stop loss Below 380

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

CATTLE Analysis: Falling grain supplies bullish for LCATTLE

By IFCMarkets.com

Falling grain supplies bullish for LCATTLE

US Department of Agriculture quarterly report of September 30 showed domestic supplies of soybean, corn and wheat fell in the three months ending in September 1 more than expected. As a result of the report prices of futures on soybeans, corn and wheat rose more than 3%. Feed grain prices are a primary input in producing animal protein. Lower feed grain supplies and higher feed prices are bullish for LCATTLE.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 113.33
Stop loss Below 109.08

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

CORN Analysis: Lower US supplies bullish for corn price

By IFCMarkets.com

Lower US supplies bullish for corn price

US Department of Agriculture quarterly report showed corn stockpiles dropped by 3.02 billion bushels during the three months ended September 1. Corn stocks totaled 1.99 billion bushels as of September 1. They were forecast at 2.25 billion bushels, 13.1% higher than the supplies available, according to Reuters. Corn futures rallied over 4% yesterday after the USDA report. Lower supply of corn is bullish for corn prices.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 385.4
Stop loss Below 363.4

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

COFFEE Analysis: Will La Nina heat reverse coffee price downtrend?

By IFCMarkets.com

Will La Nina heat reverse coffee price downtrend?

No rain is forecast for Brazil’s coffee growing areas for the next 10 days with temperatures expected to hit record highs, according to Somar Meteorologia. This week temperatures may reach 35 degrees Celsius. Even those crops that benefited from rain in the past week have only had 30 millimeters (1.2 inch) this month, just 40% of what was expected. Adverse heat is bearish for 2021 coffee crop. However, arabica futures are down more than 15% this year due to record shipments of Brazil’s exports after cooler and wetter conditions favored coffee growth last year. While dry weather is an upside risk for coffee price, technical setup is bearish.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Sell
Buy stop Below 108.94
Stop loss Above 124.31

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

WHEAT Analysis: Higher global wheat supply expectations bearish for wheat price

By IFCMarkets.com

Higher global wheat supply expectations bearish for wheat price

The US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates September report a week ago forecast larger global 2020/21 supplies and higher stocks. Total 2020/21 net wheat production is now forecast at record 770.5 million bushels, up 4.5 million tons, mainly due to expected higher production in Australia and Canada. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are increased 2.6 million tons to a new record 319.4 million. Expectations of ample global wheat supply are bearish for wheat price.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell
Fibonacci Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Sell
Buy stop Below 534.3
Stop loss Above 556.8

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

RICE Analysis: Declining Vietnam exports bearish signal for rice price

By IFCMarkets.com

Declining Vietnam exports bearish signal for rice price

Vietnam has become the second largest rice exporter in the world this year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam reported rice exports volume in the first six months of 2020 totaled 3.54 million tons, amounting to a 5.6% increase compared with the same period last year. However the export volume in the first eight months of the year decreased by 1.7% to 4.5 million tons compared with the same period last year. Falling exports of the second largest rice exporter in the world signal a weakening of demand. Weaker export demand is bearish for rice price.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Sell
Buy stop Below 12.07
Stop loss Above 12.60

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

Lean Hogs Analysis: Higher Chinese pork imports bullish for LHOG

By IFCMarkets.com

Higher Chinese pork imports bullish for LHOG

Demand for protein in the world’s most populous nation is rising as evidenced by rising China imports of pork in July. China’s July pork imports more than doubled to 430,000 tons from a year earlier, hitting a record monthly volume according to customs data. On the other hand pork inventory in US cold storage facilities were 464.373 million pounds on June 30, down from 619.454 million a year earlier, according to US Department of Agriculture monthly report. The 25% decline in US pork inventories in twelve months was attributed to slowed plant production after outbreaks of the coronavirus among meatpacking workers. Higher demand and lower supply of pork is bullish for LHOG.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 56.68
Stop loss Below 53.56

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

CATTLE Analysis: Rising US beef supply bearish for LCATTLE

By IFCMarkets.com

Rising US beef supply bearish for LCATTLE

2020 first-half US beef exports declined 15.2 percent compared with a year earlier, according to US Department of Agriculture August 2020 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. Analysts explain the decline by market turmoil due to COVID-19. At the same time USDA upgraded the second-half 2020 forecast for beef production citing a faster-than-anticipated slaughter pace. Rising beef supply is bearish for LCATTLE.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Sell
Buy stop Below 105.85
Stop loss Above 111.59

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

SUGAR Analysis: Rising Brazil production bearish for sugar price

By IFCMarkets.com

Rising Brazil production bearish for sugar price

Mills in Brazil switch cane toward sugar or ethanol production depending on market prices. Brazil’s sugar inventory is building following the real’s slump against the dollar and weaker demand for cane-based ethanol during the coronavirus pandemic, according to Bloomberg. Mills shifted to sugar as a plunge by Brazil’s currency to a record low boosted sugar prices in reals for the industry. Brazil’s exports in the four months ended July surged 58% from a year earlier. Brazil is the top global sugar producer and exporter – it accounted for 27.1% of total sugar exports worth, with earnings amounting $5.2 billion in 2019. A rise in sugar supply is bearish for sugar prices.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Sell
Buy stop Below 12.9
Stop loss Above 13.5

 

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

OATS Analysis: Higher demand for Canadian exports bullish for oats

By IFCMarkets.com

Higher demand for Canadian exports bullish for oats

Canada’s oats exports are higher in the new crop year indicating higher demand for the cereal considered a healthy grain. Oats export from Canada in the first two weeks of August 2020 were recorded at 58.2 thousand tons -more than triple the volume of exports for the same period last year, according to Government of Alberta, Canada Weekly Market Review. The review also projected a 5.1% increase for exports by year end. Canada is the top world exporter of oats – Canadian oats exports accounted for 52% ($379 million) of the world exports in 2018. Higher demand as evidenced by higher exports is bullish for oats price.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 217.7
Stop loss Below 256.1

 

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com