Archive for Opinions

Is The Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern?

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The Transportation Index, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.
  • Classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal “Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern” setting up.
  • We may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.

The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.  Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart).  Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.

IS RECENT ROTATION A TOPPING PATTERN OR JUST CONSOLIDATION?

Currently, the US stock market has rolled into a sideways/topping pattern.  After the peak in metals setup near August 7, 2020, the US stock market continued to rally a bit higher, then rotated lower on September 3, 2020.  The Transportation Index rolled over on September 3 but climbed higher less than 5 trading days later – breaking above the highs set before the COVID-19 peak.

We’ve suggested a “Bull Trap” pattern may be forming in the major markets and we’ve urged traders to cautious regarding the new price highs and appearance of a continued upside price rally.  The Bull Trap pattern, sometimes called a “Scouting Party”, happens when price breaks above resistance (or below support) briefly in an attempt to establish a new trend.  If price fails to find support after breaking above the previous resistance level, then it typically rotates lower and collapses back below the resistance level (attempting to find a lower support level).

If our research is correct, the recent rotation in the Transportation Index may suggest a Bull Trap pattern has setup and completed (with price falling back below the 11,440 level).  If this trend continues, we may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.

This Daily Transportation Index chart highlights our proprietary Fibonacci Price Modeling system and the key resistance level near 11,440 (in MAGENTA).  It also shows the Bull Trap setup near the recent highs.  Past Fibonacci Price Trigger levels near 9,800 and 9,200 suggest any downside price move may target these levels as current support.

This Transportation Index Weekly chart provides a bigger picture look at the Bull Trap setup.  The one aspect of the Weekly Transportation chart that we feel is critical is the 10,815 Bearish Price Trigger level from our Fibonacci Price Modeling System.  This level is key to understanding if and when the Transportation Index breaks a major weekly Fibonacci trigger level.  If price falls below the 10,815 level and manages to close below this level on an end-of-week basis, then we have confirmation that the longer term Fibonacci trigger level has confirmed a new bearish price trend.  Right now, we don’t have that confirmation.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

One other interesting pattern that has set up on the Weekly Transportation Index is the Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern.  This is a classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal pattern.  The term “three rivers” references the confluence of two rivers joining together (think of the strength and force of the water flow) to form a new “third river”.   The descriptive name of the pattern is designed to illustrate the nuanced strength that lies behind this price setup.  A three rivers pattern, once confirmed, is one of the more ominous topping patterns in Japanese Candlestick price theory.  It is usually associated with Doji and Hammer/Umbrella shaped price bars that are equally indicative of a price reversal.

In our past research, we authored a research article about Dow Theory and price trends that we believe should be reviewed by our friends and followers.  It clearly describes the “Down Price Trend” theory and our research team’s believe that recent weakness in the US stock market may prompt a new downside price trend.

At this time, we continue to urge our friends and followers to stay cautious of volatility and price rotation.  The markets are in the process of rotating – certainly.  The issue for all skilled technical traders right now is “will it find support or will it break down and start a new downside price trend?”.  Our researchers believe we know what will happen next, we are just waiting for technical confirmation from price activity.

Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades and avoid risk.  If you follow our research, you already know we have stayed well ahead of these trends and big price rotations in the US stock market.  What’s next is even more big trends and profits for those able to engage in the best trade setups.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter can ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth. My research and trading team are here to help you find better trades and navigate these incredibly crazy market trends.

While most of us have active trading accounts, our long-term investment and retirement accounts are equally at risk. We can also help you preserve and even grow your long term capital when things get ugly (likely now) with our Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals.  Don’t wait until it is too late – subscribe today!

Have a great weekend and stay safe and healthy!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only – read our FULL DISCLAIMER here. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

 

China Ramps Up U.S. Crude Oil Imports As Elections Near

By OilPrice.com

– China has been buying a lot of U.S. crude oil lately, perhaps in a belated attempt to fulfill some of the energy import quotas agreed with Washington last year or perhaps in a bid to take advantage of supercheap U.S. crude. But the buying spree is about to end.

This month alone, China could import between 867,000 bpd, according to Reuters’ Refinitiv data, and 900,000 bpd, according to oilfield services company Canary. And then the flow of U.S. oil into China will decline, and it will decline sharply, Reuters’ Clyde Russell wrote this week. The reason as simple as it is worrying. The U.S. crude that has been going into China since July—and reaching major records in terms of volume, with the July daily average alone up 139 percent on the year—was bought much earlier, in April, May, and June. This was oil bought when West Texas Intermediate was trading at multi-year lows. By June it had recovered to about $40, Russell notes, so purchases since then have been more modest.

But here is the worrying part: much of the oil price recovery we’ve seen since this spring was caused by rising Chinese imports, including from the United States. Rising imports are traditionally taken to mean improving demand, but this time this has not been the case entirely. Chinese refiners have been stocking up on crude more because of the historically low prices than to satisfy growing demand.

In all fairness, oil demand has been seen as recovering pretty faster after the end of the lockdowns there but since China is not an isolated economy, its refining industry needs a recovery elsewhere in Asia and globally, and this has been slow in coming. Now, none other than OPEC is warning that a second wave of Covid-19 infections—already visible in parts of Europe, for example—will further slow down demand recovery, which will unavoidably affect Chinese oil imports.

According to Canary CEO Dan Eberhart, however, China will continue buying a lot of U.S. oil ahead of the U.S. elections. Beijing, Eberhart wrote for Forbes, would want to stay on Trump’s good side as much as possible in case he wins a second term. Reuters’ Russell is of a different opinion: he cites preliminary import estimates that point to a sharp decline in October to 500,000 bpd of U.S. oil flowing into China and a further decline in November. For Russell, it’s all about the price. For Eberhart, it’s also about politics and the trade war.

“While importing U.S. crude often doesn’t make commercial sense for China’s refiners, Beijing has directed them to continue buying as the election approaches—a sign that China knows that the trade issue with Trump will only intensify if the president wins a second term,” Eberhart wrote.

Yet not everyone agrees that politics will trump the economy. In fact, data from Chinese market research firms suggests private refiners, if not the state giants, may sharply cut their intake of foreign oil this month and next. After all, storage space is finite and Chinese energy companies have been filling it up for months now while demand has been improving but is yet to return to growth mode, even in China with its rebounding economy.

It looks like the dominant opinion is for a decline in Chinese oil imports, from the U.S. and elsewhere, in the coming months, not least because of lower refinery run rates. Reuters reported earlier this week refinery runs are set to be cut by 5-10 percent beginning this month because of a crude oil glut and weak fuel export margins. This would mean more pressure on prices. And this is not all. Some analysts expect that China may start selling the oil it bought on the cheap in the spring. Now that would be really bad news for oil prices.

Link to original article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Ramps-Up-US-Crude-Oil-Imports-As-Elections-Near.html

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Junior Explorer Reaches Critical Exploration Stage

Peter Epstein of Epstein Research examines the latest news from X-Terra Resources, including two imminent drill programs he believes “could be game-changers.”

Source: Peter Epstein for Streetwise Reports   09/22/2020 

X-Terra Resources Inc. (XTT:TSX.V; XTRRF:OTCMKTS; XTR:FSE) has been flying under the radar, but critical events culminating in two imminent drill programs are coming to fruition. Add to that the fact that the current gold price is like rocket fuel. A strong gold property or project at $1,261/ounce (average price from 2014ñ2019) is spectacular at $1,916/ounce (oz).

Companies that were able to assemble and keep gold assets between 2014ó2019 are in good shape now. Management teams skillful enough to have meaningfully advanced projects have seen their share prices soaróCanadian companies like Great Bear Resources Ltd. (GBR:TSX.V; GTBDF:OTCQX), Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (KL:TSX; KL:NYSE), Skeena Resources Ltd (SKE:TSX.V) and Victoria Gold Corp. (VGCX:TSX; VITFF:OTCMKTS).

X-Terra’s share price has bounced nicely off of a COVID-19-induced selloff in March, but remains at the same level it was 18 months ago. This, despite having not one, but two, high-impact, fully funded drill programs (with no correlation to each other) starting in the next two months.

Grog and Northwest (NB on map)

The company secured an option to earn a 70% interest in the Grog and Northwest properties, (covering ~245 square kilometers [sq. km]), in April 2019 when the gold price was approx. $1,280/oz. The company’s other primary asset, Troilus East, was secured in Q4/2015, when gold was briefly under $1,100/oz. More on Troilus East later; first the recent important news on Grog and Northwest.

X-Terra is earning into a 70% interest in the Grog property and the Northwest property group, (comprising the former Rim, Dome and Bonanza properties) in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. The company completed due diligence on the properties, confirming the potential for a large disseminated gold system at Grog.

The highest gold values from historical samples were at Northwest, including 1,205 g/t, 150 g/t and 50.6 g/t gold at the Rim, Bonanza and Dome showings, respectively. The technical team also sampled the Rim vein at regular intervals over 19.9 meters, returning an average of 125.4 g/t gold of nine surface samples.

In 2012, a 16-tonne bulk sample of the Bonanza vein reportedly averaged 24.4 g/t gold (~$1,500/tonne in-situ gold value at spot price).

On Sept. 21, X-Terra announced the results of geochemical sampling and additional induced polarization (IP) ground geophysics, further validating targets for their second drill program on the Grog and Northwest properties. These results and other recent fieldwork is also helping facilitate first-ever drilling at the high-grade Rim vein target.

This important news comes after a new gold-bearing structure was discovered on the Grog property in May. Hole GRG-20-012 identified mineralization over a notable width, the headline interval was 0.46 g/t gold over 31 meters (31m), including 7.6 g/t over 0.6m, at a vertical depth of 81m. The ~1,500m drilled covered only a small fraction of the target. Hitting this significant, shallow mineralized zone was an important milestone.

According to the press release, “While the combination of gold results from the new survey to that of the survey completed in 2017 is somewhat incompatible for gold, due to the different methodologies applied, the combination of other indicators like arsenic and antimony (As, Sb) fit not only with bedrock structures mapped in the field but also with the geophysics. When all is taken into account, the overall Grog footprint now extends 5 km north-south by 2 km east-west.”

Michael Ferreira, president and CEO, stated, “The correlation obtained during this phase of work between low mag, high resistivity and gold-arsenic-anomaly at the margin is a significant step up in our understanding of the Grog system. Not only was the kilometric strike length of the known gold system reached and confirmed by a common signature, our hypothesis was validated that there are two parallel trends of the same orientation and thickness.”

The considerable amount of work done at Grog and Northwest points to one thingóa larger drill program! Originally, 11 holes were planned. Now, management will drill 20 (16 at Grog [150ñ300m depth] + four 100m holes at the high-grade Rim target).

High-grade Rim vein at Northwest to see first-ever drilling

Excitement over the Rim target is growing by the day. If any of the four holes intersect meaningful high-grade mineralization, that would open up not just Rim, but other Northwest showings to high priority drilling later this year.

The Rim vein showing on the Northwest property group has been targeted for a maiden drill test. Chip sampling in 2018 returned from 4.5 g/t to 1,205 g/t gold. The drill plan includes four shallow holes of 100m each to test the down dip projection of soil anomalies and identify additional gold-bearing veins.

Troilus East project borders industry darling Troilus Gold

Switching gears, X-Terra’s other primary project, Troilus East, is shown in the map above. The property is situated in north-central Quebec, about 160 kilometers northeast of Chibougamau, in the Frotet-Evans greenstone belt and comprises 182 mining claims covering ~93 sq. km.

The Frotet-Evans belt has seen limited exploration compared to the Abitibi greenstone belt. X-Terra’s footprint, in yellow, borders Troilus Gold’s project, and is <3 kilometers from Inmet Mining Corp.’s (IMN:TSX) open pit mine (1996ñ2010, production of 2 million ounces of gold + 254 million pounds copper).

I mentioned that Troilus East was secured in 2015. It has been an integral part of X-Terra longer than Troilus Gold Corp.’s (TLG:TSX; CHXMF:OTCQB) flagship project has been a part of Troilus Gold. This speaks to the substantial potential value of Troilus East as it has not been drill-tested.

Meanwhile, its connected neighbor to the north has drilled 80,500 meters in the past 2.5 years. Troilus Gold is a single project company. Its CA$150 million (CA$150M) market cap is entirely tied to the 8.1 million ounces it has delineated so far. I would be surprised if there’s not a gold deposit on X-Terra’s property, situated so close as it is to that globally-significant resource.

The question is, how big a deposit might X-Terra be sitting on, and how much might it cost to find out?

Kenorland Minerals (in bright green) recently announced an intercept of 2.7m of 33.7 g/t gold, including 1.0m of 76.9 g/t gold. That comes after the company’s major discovery hole (29.1m at 8.5 g/t Au). Kenorland is going public via a reverse takeover of Northway Resources (NTW:TSX.V) and is concurrently raising CA$12M to drill.

Unbelievable exploration successes, just a few kilometers from X-Terra

Combined, Troilus Gold and Kenorland could drill perhaps 30ñ40,000 meters over the next six months alone, and double that amount in the next yearóall within 10 kilometers of X-Terra’s property! Yet, X-Terra’s footprint, in the heart of it all, is valued at just CA$5.5M (assuming Troilus East is about half the total value of the company and Grog/Northwest the other half).

Two and a half years of exploration, 80,500 meters of drilling, delivered an incremental 5.36 million ounces of Indicated + Inferred gold for Troilus Gold. This resource growth rate, (for a junior with >1 million ounces to start in 2017¨ñ18), has been one of the best in Canada.

Each meter drilled, at an all-in cost of <$200/m, delivered 67 ounces to the mineral resource estimate. That’s a finding cost of just $3/oz. Does Troilus Gold’s outstanding exploration success bode well for X-Terra?

I think that it could. The geology is similar, but management will need to demonstrate more than a few attractive drill holes. Investors require evidence of good continuity across a sizable patch of land. Readers should note that Troilus’s flagship project (8.1 million ounces and counting) is hosted on a surface footprint of +/- 10 sq. km!

Troilus Gold recently released a summary of its preliminary economic assessment (PEA). While the net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) were impressive, they’re probably not comparable to X-Terra’s much earlier stage project. However, I find it encouraging that the project’s capital intensity (upfront capex divided by ounces produced) is in the best decile of Canadian-listed companies.

Unlike British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, with dozens of pre-construction juniorsómost pre-maiden resource estimateóthere are only five or six players (with most or all of their gold assets in northern Quebec) near Troilus’s project.

Yet mid-tier and majors in Quebec/Ontario include Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX; AUY:NYSE; YAU:LSE), Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE), Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD:TSX; EGO:NYSE), IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE), Kirkland Lake, New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE), Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX; AGI:NYSE) and McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX:TSX; MUX:NYSE ). X-Terra will have a lot of eyeballs on it if they drill some good holes.

Promising update on Troilus East exploration; full steam ahead

In July, X-Terra completed the first geological reconnaissance and prospecting campaign on its wholly owned Troilus East property, located on the Frotet-Evans greenstone belt in James Bay, Quebec. Troilus East is adjacent to Troilus Gold’s 8.1-million-ounce (Measured + Indicated + Inferred) gold-copper project and also adjacent to properties held by UrbanGold Minerals Inc. (UGM:TSX.V) and Kenorland Minerals.

For two weeks, X-Terra’s exploration crew, supported by Technominex of Rouyn-Noranda, collected 451 chip samples from outcrops, boulders and channel sampling. The sampling was mostly directed up ice from previously identified gold-in-till anomalies.

In the prior till survey, 72 of 78 samples tested positive for gold grains. Of 283 gold grains, 25% (71) were classified as pristine. This typically means that the location of the samples from which the pristine gold grains were taken is <500m from the source of the gold sample.

CEO Ferreira stated, “This program delivered everything we could’ve expected from a first exploration campaign. We are looking forward to the upcoming assay results and related interpretation of the mineralization system. We will continue updating the market as we move this project forward towards the second phase of exploration. . .”

Conclusion

X-Terra has a tiny market cap of just CA$11M = US$8.3M, yet it has two potential company-making gold-heavy projects. Both will see drilling (at least 20 more holes) this year. Both are open to new discoveries. The projects are surrounded by dozens of larger junior, mid-tier and major precious metals companies that could be interested in joint venture and farm-in opportunities.

Not many gold companies the size of X-Terra Resources have two high-impact, funded drill programs starting by October or November at the latest. Neighboring properties/projects are seeing very significant drill programs this year and next. Good news for one will be good for all.

Readers have a lot of gold juniors to choose from, but not all are in safe jurisdictions, or have strong management teams and technical advisors. Not all have compelling valuations (many, companies are already up 500%+ from COVID-19 lows). Not all juniors have near-term catalysts and the cash to make things happen. Readers should consider taking a closer look at X-Terra Resources.

Peter Epstein is the founder of Epstein Research. His background is in company and financial analysis. He holds an MBA degree in financial analysis from New York University’s Stern School of Business.

[NLINSERT]

Disclosures: The content of the above article is for information only. Readers fully understand and agree that nothing contained herein, written by Peter Epstein of Epstein Research [ER], (together, [ER]) about X-Terra Resources, including commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts, calculations, etc., is not to be considered implicit or explicit investment advice. Nothing contained herein is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. [ER] is not responsible under any circumstances for investment actions taken by the reader. [ER] has never been, and is not currently, a registered or licensed financial advisor or broker/dealer, investment advisor, stockbroker, professional trader, money manager, compliance or legal officer, and does not perform market making activities. [ER] is not directly employed by any company, group, organization, party or person. The shares of X-Terra Resources are highly speculative, not suitable for all investors. Readers understand and agree that investments in small cap stocks can result in a 100% loss of invested funds. It is assumed and agreed upon by readers that they will consult with their own licensed or registered financial advisors before making investment decisions.

At the time this article was posted, X-Terra Resources was an advertiser on [ER].

Readers understand and agree that they must conduct their own due diligence above and beyond reading this article. While the author believes he’s diligent in screening out companies that, for any reasons whatsoever, are unattractive investment opportunities, he cannot guarantee that his efforts will (or have been) successful. [ER] is not responsible for any perceived, or actual, errors including, but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts and financial calculations, or for the completeness of this article or future content. [ER] is not expected or required to subsequently follow or cover events and news, or write about any particular company or topic. [ER] is not an expert in any company, industry sector or investment topic.

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2) The following companies mentioned in the article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with X-Terra Resources. Please click here for more information. Please click here for more information. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this interview, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of X-Terra, a company mentioned in this article.

Dollar Rallies, Gold Corrects Then Resumes Climb

Peter Krauth discusses what he believes is ahead for the dollar and gold.

Source: Peter Krauth for Streetwise Reports   09/22/2020 

After taking it on the chin for the last six months, the U.S. dollar now looks set to rally.

Gold is being dented, having recently traded back below $1,900.

Meanwhile, the dollar is already up nearly 1.5% since the start of September. That’s a big deal for the world’s reserve currency.

But if you consider what’s happened to the dollar since March, this could be the start of something bigger.

In my recent articles, I’ve been telling you to watch for a relief rally in the dollar over the near term.

I also said that could weigh on gold, generating some temporary weakness, which would create an excellent opportunity to buy.

Well, it looks like we’re entering that period now, suggesting it will soon be time to put cash to work in the gold space.

Dollar Looks to Break Out

This recent 1.5% gain for the dollar has been a stealth rally so far. I suspect that’s because it’s small compared to the massive drop in the U.S. Dollar Index over the past six months.

In March the USDX peaked above 103 as Covid lockdowns went into full swing. By late August it had dropped 10.7%, scraping the 92 level. That’s a massive drop for any currency in such a short time, but it’s a very big deal for the world’s reserve currency.

I’m not saying it wasn’t deserved, especially given the trillions being printed to stimulate. But that also doesn’t mean it hasn’t become oversold in the near term.

From the following chart, courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, we see that “smart money” dollar hedgers have not been this bullish on the dollar since 2012.

The last few times dollar hedgers were similarly bullish, the dollar went on to generate noticeable rallies. And I think we could be in for a similar outcome this time as well.

A quick analysis of the USDX price, using UUP as a proxy, provides some technical basis.

While UUP continued to trend downwards through late August, The RSI and MACD momentum indicators showed positive divergence as they had already started rising in late July or early August (red lines). The price action since late August has formed a bullish ascending triangle (blue lines).

The August 11 closing high was $25.31. If UUP closes above that level, it will be the first time since mid-May above its 50-day moving average while setting a new recent high. Should UUP be able to maintain that for a couple of days, then odds are we have an upside breakout.

My first target would be just above $26, which corresponds to about 96.25 on the USDX. That would be about a 3% gain over a couple of weeks, which is likely to weigh on gold.

It’s also worth noting a recent Reuters article highlighting the dollar’s tendency to rally around the time of U.S. elections. According to Ben Randol, G10 FX and rates strategist at BofA Global Research, since 1980 the USDX rose 7 of 10 times between the start of September and early December, gaining an average of 2.5%.

Gold Enters Weak Period

Looking at gold we see clear weakness has started in the last couple of trading days.

Gold has just traded back below its 50-day moving average, a move being confirmed by both the RSI and MACD, which have also turned lower.

The first downside target level is likely to be near $1,800, which lines up with the rising support (green) line. The next support would be in the $1,750–$1,760 range.

Examining gold stocks, GDX appears to be confirming renewed weakness as well.

The RSI and MACD have both turned lower, confirming renewed weakness, with the GDX trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-June, a bearish signal.

If this persists, my first target would be $37, followed by the $33–$34 range, which lines up with the 200-day moving average.

There is also gold’s seasonality to consider as well. While not the strongest indicator, taken together with others, it can bolster the case for gold’s near-term direction.

Once again, courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, we see that we’re heading into a period of typical seasonal weakness for gold.

If we consider gold’s bullish years since 2001, the metal has tended to find a bottom in mid-October.

So what’s gold likely to do next?

I’m not in the habit of agreeing with the proverbial “banksters”—even former ones. Still I must admit Lloyd Blankfein, former chair and CEO at Goldman Sachs, is right about gold.

He recently told the CME Group, “It has been so long since these metals have played a role in financial markets as a store of value…But if there was ever a time where they would, it would be now.”

And Goldman itself is also firmly bullish on gold, saying in July its target is $2,300 per ounce within 12 months.

Remember, we still have a worsening Covid situation potentially leading to a second wave and renewed lockdowns, as well as a likely chaotic U.S. election just 6 weeks away.

In my view, once this correction/consolidation is over, we’ll resume bull market action, taking gold to a new all-time high near $2,200 before the year is out.

For now, the gold bull market is just taking a breather. But it’s certainly far from over.

–Peter Krauth

Peter Krauth is a former portfolio adviser and a 20-year veteran of the resource market, with special expertise in energy, metals and mining stocks. He has been editor of a widely circulated resource newsletter, and contributed numerous articles to Kitco.com, BNN Bloomberg and the Financial Post. Krauth holds a Master of Business Administration from McGill University and is headquartered in resource-rich Canada.

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2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
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Gold Setting Up Just Like Before The COVID-19 Breakdown – Get Ready

By TheTechnicalTraders 

–  RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.
  • Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.
  • More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.

Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24.  First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020.  Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.

What we found interesting is how quickly Gold prices recovered and broke to even higher price levels after this deep selling.  Our belief is that when a crisis event first hits, which we sometimes call the “shock-wave”, all assets take a beating – including Gold and Silver.  This is the event where traders and investors pull everything to CASH (closing positions).  Then, as the shock-wave ends, traders re-evaluate the price levels of assets to determine how they want to deploy their capital.

GOLD BASING NEAR $1885 FOR A BIG RALLY

Our belief that this DIP or double-dip pattern in Gold because of crisis events presents a very solid opportunity for skilled traders to add-to existing positions or strategically target shorter-term upside price swings in precious metals.

This Daily Gold chart below highlights the first dip and the second dip in Gold prices as the COVID-19 price collapse took place.  Notice how Gold rotated lower, then recovered to new highs, then dipped even lower in early March 2020.  This last dip in price levels was the very deep selling before the March 21 bottom setup (US Fed induced).

Now, take a look at the current Gold Futures Daily chart. Notice the big price correction that started on August 7, 2020 – setting up the FLAG/Pennant formation in Gold.  Interestingly enough, this top in Gold also aligns with a moderately deep price correction in the NASDAQ – before continuing to rally even higher.  Silver also setup a price peak on August 7, 2020.  Now, as the Banking illegalities report has been released, the markets again fell into a shock-wave of selling on Monday, August 21.  This time Gold fell just over 3% throughout the day before starting to recover near the end of the day.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

Currently, our Fibonacci support levels are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790 as you can see from the Gold Daily chart below. We believe more downside price pressure may continue in Gold and Silver over the next few days before a strong upside price move begins to take place.  The recent low price level in Gold, near $1,885, aligns perfectly with our Fibonacci projected price target (Support) level.  If Gold has already found support near this price level, then we may already be hammering out a bottom in Gold setting up a big upside recovery trend.

The question for gold traders right now is “does the $1,885 level hold as support or will gold break lower trying to fund support?”.  My researchers and I believe the current bottom in Gold is set up and the $1,885 price will hold as support.  We also believe the next move higher will prompt a rally targeting levels near $2,250.

Watch for the momentum base to continue to form near $1,885 before the breakout rally trend in Gold starts.  Once it breaks the $2,035 level, it should start to rally upward very quickly. If the price of Gold breaks down below $1,885 then we may experience a continuing bottom to the next support level of $1,815.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter can ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth. My research and trading team are here to help you find better trades and navigate these incredibly crazy market trends.

While most of us have active trading accounts, our long-term investment and retirement accounts are equally at risk. We can also help you preserve and even grow your long term capital when things get ugly (likely now) with our Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals.  Don’t wait until it is too late – subscribe today!

Stay safe and healthy!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only – read our FULL DISCLAIMER here. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

 

Why Arm’s sale to Nvidia has stunned the tech industry

By Hamza Mudassir, Cambridge Judge Business School

Arm, the Cambridge-based microchip designer is a British tech success story. The firm designs software and semiconductors that are used in a multitude of consumer favourites, including Apple and Samsung smartphones, Nintendo consoles and many more. Its chip designs are increasingly used in the growing Internet of Things industry.

Much of Arm’s success comes from its neutrality, as it doesn’t compete with any of the companies it licenses its designs to. But there are fears this could all change. Arm’s owners, Softbank have announced a deal with tech giant Nvidia worth up to US$40 billion (£31 billion). A closer look at Arm’s success reveals why the tech industry is stunned by the news and why it poses potential problems for Arm going forward.

Arm defied the traditional notion of how a technology company competes in the global market place. To begin with, it does not manufacture any of its products. This is in sharp contrast to competitors Intel and AMD, who spend a lot of time, money and effort in manufacturing and marketing the microchips that they design. Instead, Arm licenses its patented designs to customers who can then easily modify, manufacture and market microchips around them.

Further, Arm has been a pioneer in building an ecosystem around itself, which currently consists of thousands of partners, vendors and manufacturers. This is a collaborative ecosystem, where many of Arm’s customers and partners have built their business models around Arm’s designs, secure in the knowledge that it is not a competitor.

The Switzerland of semiconductors

Arm’s model of collaborating instead of competing has resulted in a 90% share of the smartphone market alongside a reach that greatly exceeds that of rivals Intel and AMD. It is one of a handful of firms in the world that have successfully scaled a multibillion-dollar business built solely around research and development (R&D).

Arm co-founder Hermann Hauser describes the company as “the Switzerland of the semiconductor industry” because of this neutral approach. With this ethos holding strong for 30 years, thousands of companies have pegged their products to Arm’s R&D efforts.

This is in stark contrast to how the tech industry usually works. R&D investment is normally used as a tool to beat competitors, and it is quite common for large tech firms to compete fiercely with their own partners and customers. For example, Microsoft builds laptops and tablets that compete with many of the companies it sells its software to. Similarly, Google sells its Android software to other smartphone makers, while also competing with these customers with its Pixel phones.

Arm’s acquisition by Nvidia puts its Switzerland position at an obvious risk. Hauser said as much to the Guardian newspaper: “It is very much in Nvidia’s interest to kill Arm.”

Nvidia has promised to keep the Arm brand, maintain its neutrality and continue licensing its chip designs to customers. But many clients are concerned, with none of Arm’s big customers publicly backing the deal.

Nvidia is a US-based chip maker. It is the market leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), which power high-fidelity video games and increasingly handle data-intensive machine learning tasks. Leaps in microchip designs is one of the main ways it competes in its industry.

If this acquisition completes as planned, Nvidia would have gained a treasure trove of IP and patents that give it unparalleled power in the industry. Arm’s customers fear that they will become second-class citizens, with Nvidia first in line to its innovative new chip designs.

Another dimension to this deal is the fact that Nvidia is taking over Arm in the middle of the US-China trade war. This could put pressure on Arm’s China business, which represents about 20% of its revenues. In fact, in 2018, Arm divested its majority ownership in its China operations to give peace of mind to Beijing, which was increasingly worried about its dependence on foreign designed microchips. Such bold moves seem unlikely under Nvidia.

The deal will take up to 18 months to go through, as both Nvidia and Arm will have to get formal approval from competition commissions in the US, China, Europe and other major markets to proceed. But Nvidia’s assurances that it will keep Arm in Cambridge and expand its chip research there should go a long way toward assuage the British government at least.

In terms of Arm giving up its neutrality, research shows that mergers and acquisitions of this size can change acquiring companies as much as the targets they acquire. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has alluded to his plans to sell Nvidia’s GPU designs to Arm’s clients as part of a bundled offering. He also consistently speaks about his admiration of Arm’s unique place in the microchip ecosystem, and says he has no intentions to disrupt it.

Perhaps Arm will make Nvidia more neutral rather than the other way around. We will find out soon enough.The Conversation

About the Author:

Hamza Mudassir, Visiting Fellow in Strategy, Cambridge Judge Business School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

How to decipher recent market activity

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– Yesterday Chris Vermeulen, Founder and Chief Market Strategist for The Technical Traders, held two webinars and Q&A sessions with Adelaide Capital and RTD. These interactive sessions will help you decipher what has been happening in the markets over the past few trading sessions, and what to look out for next.

In this first Q&A webinar, Chris joins Deborah Honig Adelaide Capital to answer questions about the market over the past few trading sessions, what is going on with Gold, Silver and the Miners, etc.

CLICK ON THE VIDEO BELOW TO WATCH THE ADELAIDE CAPITAL Q&A

 

The second Live Q&A was held with Mike from Rethinking The Dollar. Chris shares how he sees both gold and silver going lower in the short term and why it has never been a greater time to get involved before the really big moves start.

CLICK ON THE VIDEO BELOW TO WATCH THE ADELAIDE CAPITAL Q&A

GET CHRIS’S TRADING AND INVESTING SIGNALS HERE

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Bubbles

Investors acknowledge a market bubble but optimism prevents them from seeking financial safety

By Elliott Wave International

The months before the 2000 and 2007 stock market peaks saw a measurable rise in news stories that used the phrase “financial bubble.”

But instead of selling, many investors kept right on buying.

The logic went something like this: “This bubble could burst one day — but not just yet.”

The March 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis and forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, showed this chart and said:

The bars on the chart show that the number of financial bubble articles boomed as the bear market began in 2000. When the mania re-ignited, the bubble talk receded briefly, only to re-emerge last year [2007] as the housing crash started to bite and the credit market imploded. The … bubble of 2003-2007 should be over, because bubble references are once again rising fast.

Indeed, the worst of the 2008-2009 stock market debacle was just ahead.

Fast forward to 2020 and this Sept. 7 news item from CNBC:

‘We’re certainly in a bubble,’ strategist warns — but don’t expect it to pop anytime soon

Is it rational to stay in the market, even after acknowledging something as potentially financially dangerous as a bubble?

Here’s a classic quote from an Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which offers insights into financial and social trends, and is written by Robert Prechter, the president of Elliott Wave International:

The case for rational bubbles rests on the idea that investors are consciously making risk assessments and deciding that the gamble of buying high — to sell even higher — is worth it. But a bubble is fueled by more buying, which is propelled by new buyers and by increased conviction among those already invested, so few bubble investors actually do sell higher. Instead of buying high and selling higher, most of them do only the first half.

You deserve an independent perspective on financial markets, and Elliott wave analysis can bring you just that.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, read this quote from the book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter:

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.

Discover more about the Wave Principle by reading the entirety of the online version of this Wall Street classic for free.

Free access to the book is available when you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community. Just so you know: There are no obligations whatsoever when you join Club EWI and membership is also free.

Club EWI has around 350,000 members. All members have continual access to a wealth of Elliott wave educational materials on financial markets, trading and investing.

And, now, Club EWI members also have free access to Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — follow the link to have the online version of the book on your computer screen in just moments.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Bubbles. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Why do bankers behave so badly? They make too much money to ask questions

By Mark Crosby, Monash University

Over the past 16 months journalists have been scouring through more than 2,000 Suspicious Activity Reports originally sent by banks to the United States Treasury, before being leaked to Buzzfeed and then passed along to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.

The reports relate to more than US$2 trillion in transactions over the period from 2000 to 2017. Some of these transactions will already have been investigated, and may be legitimate. In the case of the Australian banks, the regulator AUSTRAC has already asked the US Treasury for some of this information.

There are a number of questions raised by this latest episode of bad behaviour by banks. Firstly, why don’t banks have better controls to stop these kinds of transactions from occurring?

With transactions from tax havens, from shell companies, or to countries under sanction why aren’t banks themselves doing some investigation rather than simply passing information along to the US Treasury?

The short answer is that banks make too much money and it is not in their interest to ask too many questions.

An obvious example are the transactions processed by JP Morgan relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal which netted the bank millions of dollars in fees despite the obvious questions the transactions should have raised.

International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.

A second question is why do banks consistently seem to behave so badly?

Australia has seen banking scandal after banking scandal over the last 30 years, with the latest detailed in the report of the Hayne Royal Commission in 2019.

Big rewards, less regulation

I believe the reason the banking industry is particularly prone to scandals is because of the amount of cash sloshing through the system, and the fact that in recent years there have been fewer regulations and less policing than is needed.

Deregulation has been the general trend in finance since the mid-1980s, first in the United States and Britain, and then in countries such as Australia.

Australia’s deregulation began with the floating of the exchange rate in 1983 followed by the removal of controls over bank interest rates and bank deposits with the Reserve Bank.

Sure enough, Australia’s first banking scandal was the Swiss loans affair
in 1985 in which unsophisticated Australians were encouraged to borrow in a foreign currency oblivious to the risk the Australian dollar might fall forcing them to pay back much more than they borrowed.

In the United States the Savings and Loan debacle occurred at roughly the same time. A classic example is a large bank in Ohio, Home State, that failed in 1985. Depositors in Home State thought they were safe because their deposits were insured, but deregulation of deposit insurance led to private insurers. The deposit insurance company failed alongside Home State, leaving nothing for insurance payouts.

The next major banking disaster was the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Deregulated banks in countries including Korea and Thailand failed due to large unregulated inflows the systems in these countries couldn’t handle.

No learning from history

A follow-on was the failure of Long Term Capital Management, a highly leveraged (borrowed) hedge fund in 1998. The US Treasury engineered a bailout of Long Term Capital Management that was favourable to its shareholders and lenders instead of letting it fail.

There were a number of obvious regulatory problems that led to the crisis. Hedge funds were not required to report their positions in these markets and the risk they were creating or exposed to. They were highly leveraged. Unsophisticated financial markets suffered unmanageable large capital flows.

During the crisis the Governor of the US Federal Reserve was Alan Greenspan, a man philosophically opposed to regulation.

He was a follower of the philosophy of Ayn Rand, whose view was that the government was incompetent and regulation was unnecessary.

Greenspan noted the contradiction in being a public servant of this mindset, but tried to further deregulate finance wherever and however possible.

Despite the Asian crisis coming close to creating the first global financial meltdown, there was no slowing in deregulation afterwards.

The result was the global financial crisis.

Once again, high leverage and opacity were culprits, along with deregulation in derivatives markets and poor design for some market structures.

Even businesses want better regulation

After the global financial crisis, deregulation continued, at times despite the wishes of industries affected. On Monday this week 381 companies signed a letter arguing against a proposal that would remove the need for hedge funds to disclose their stock market holdings. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin used to work in a hedge fund. He is unlikely to back down.

And this week the first details of the 16-month investigation were released, exposing major issues with transactions by the largest banks in the United States and United Kingdom in particular, but also all four of Australia’s major banks, and Macquarie Bank which was used for more than US$120 million (A$167 million) of suspicious transactions.

Many won’t be illegal, but the suspicious activity reports suggest that where there is a conflict between profit and ethical decision making, profit usually wins.

I don’t think the reason for this is that all people in finance are unethical, but an industry with such a lot of cash floating around and too little regulation is likely to attract people with questionable ethics.

It needn’t mean a return to the old days

Regulation needn’t mean a reversion to the old “3-6-3” banking days where deposit rates were 3%, lending rates were 6% and the bank manager was on the golf course by 3pm.

But regulation needs to address disclosure issues, leverage, and issues with “sophisticated” products that create a significant risk of blowing up the global financial system.

Reforms should also focus the minds of management and boards on better behaviour. A simple one would be non-payment of bonuses when the organisation is brought into disrepute. It could be structured along the lines of the two strikes rule on remuneration.

Consumers of financial products are at a considerable information disadvantage, and need better protection. Currently consumer protection in the financial services sector lies with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and with state consumer affairs offices.

In some cases this works, but neither ASIC nor consumer affairs offices are focused exclusively on protecting consumers against abuses in the financial services sector. ASIC is responsible to businesses and finance professionals as well as consumers, and at times these responsibilities conflict.

The codes of conduct we have are voluntary, although industry bodies can seek ASIC approval. The Australian Banking Association code is essentially toothless.

Until there is greater regulation in banking and finance we will continue to endure the kinds of bad behaviour we’ve been lumbered with for decades. And we will continue to pay for it too, when things go bad. It’s not enough to rely on banks to get banks to behave well.The Conversation

About the Author:

Mark Crosby, Professor, Monash University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher.
  • Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.
  • Our next upside price target for platinum is $1,410, representing a +52.4% upside price target.
  • Palladium bottom in March 2020 was near $1,357. We expect a new upside price target for Palladium near $3,663 once it has broken out past current resistance levels.

If you have been following my research for a while, you are already aware of past research posts suggesting Gold and Silver will advance in multiple upside price legs over the next 90+ days. Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher.  Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.

What you may not be aware of is the incredible opportunities setting up in Platinum and Palladium.  Platinum has set up a very deep COVID-19 low near $550 and rallied back to briefly touch resistance near $1,035 as we can see in the Palladium Weekly chart below. Since that move, Platinum has stalled below $1,000 waiting for momentum to start another upside price leg.  Using a simple 100% Fibonacci Measured move technique, we can easily identify the $485 price swing from the $1,035 highs to the $550 lows.  All we need to do is find a support level near what we believe will be the Momentum Base level, then add that $485 to the Momentum Base level to find the next upside target in Platinum.

Let us assume the Momentum Base will happen near $925. This would result in the next upside price target for Platinum will be $1,410.  Of course, Platinum would have to rally above the $1,035 level to confirm this upside breakout trend and for the $1,410 target level to become valid.  That $1,410 target level represents a +52.4% upside price target.

Palladium presents an even broader price rotation.   The peak just before the COVID-19 collapse was near $2,820.  The bottom in March 2020 was near $1,357.  This creates a range of $1,463.  We can clearly see the Flag/Pennant formation on the Palladium Weekly chart (below) highlighted in YELLOW.  We want you to pay close attention to what already appears to be a moderate upside price move after the apex of the Flag/Pennant formation.

If we add the $1,463 range to the Flag/Pennant Apex level, near $2,200, then we end up with a new upside price target for Palladium near $3,663.  This represents a +66.5% upside price target for Palladium.

Something else we want to point out is the relationship of Platinum and Palladium to Gold and Silver.  If Platinum and Palladium rally towards the targets we have suggested (+52% and/or +65%) from the Momentum Base levels, could Gold and Silver rally a similar amount?  A 55% rally in Gold from current levels would target the $3,038 level.  A 55% rally in Silver would target the $42 level. These new upside target levels are well beyond our “Measured Move” suggested targets – these higher target levels may be broader upside Fibonacci expansion levels?  Still, they suggest a much bigger move in precious metals is pending.

Watch how Platinum, Palladium, Gold and Silver react over the next 6+ weeks.  We believe there is a very strong possibility that a bigger upside price move is just waiting to breakout as the markets deal with incredible levels of uncertainty over the next 60 to 90+ days.

Isn’t it time you learned how I can help you better understand technical analysis as well as find and execute better trades?  If you look back at past research, you will see that my incredible team and our proprietary technical analysis tools have shown you what to expect from the markets in the future.  Do you want to learn how to profit from these expected moves?  If so, sign up for my Active ETF Swing Trade Signals today!

If you have a buy-and-hold or retirement account and are looking for long-term technical signals for when to buy and sell equities, bonds, precious metals, or sit in cash then be sure to subscribe to my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals to stay ahead of the market and protect your wealth!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only – read our FULL DISCLAIMER here. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.