Archive for investing – Page 2

Currency Speculators raised US Dollar bearish bets for 1st time in 7 weeks

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-5.54 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their aggregate bearish bets for the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-5.54 billion as of Tuesday June 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-0.69 billion from the $-4.85 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative positions had risen for six straight weeks to the least bearish level since January 2nd before bearish bets rose this week. Overall, the dollar position remains in bearish territory for a 47th consecutive week dating back to July 18th 2017.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes: Peso plunge continues into bearish territory

This week saw just one substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contract level for the speculators category.

Mexican peso speculative bets continued to decline sharply and fell by at least -10,000 contracts for a fourth straight week. This week the MXN bets decreased by -29,446 contracts. Overall, the speculator peso bets have now dropped for eight straight weeks and the MXN spec position dipped into a bearish position for the first time since April 11th of 2017.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the Japanese yen (4,599 contracts), Swiss franc (4,215 contracts), Australian dollar (3,027 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,982 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-3,801 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-2,132 contracts), Canadian dollar (-349 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-29,446 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -94,602 16,431 89,236 -3,801
GBP 3,799 8,010 7,345 -2,132
JPY 9,747 -6,792 -3,437 4,599
CHF 62,451 1,537 -39,216 4,215
CAD 20,361 1,384 -16,039 -349
AUD 36,602 -4,720 -20,208 3,027
NZD -675 -3,161 4,383 2,982
MXN 13,952 30,613 -11,110 -29,446

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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WTI Crude Oil Speculators dropped their bullish bets for 7th week

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WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators continued to reduce their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 583,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly fall of -24,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 607,828 net contracts.

Speculative positions declined for a seventh consecutive week and by a total of -144,555 net contracts over that time-frame. The overall net position is now at the lowest level since November 21st when the total was +577,078 contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -633,286 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 19,343 contracts from the total net of -652,629 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $13.22 which was a drop of $-0.29 from the previous close of $13.51, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators sharply cut back on their record bearish bets

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bonds speculators sharply decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -397,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly advance of 73,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -471,067 net contracts.

Speculative bearish bets fell by the most in twelve weeks this week after surging to a new bearish record high last week. The bearish net position, despite a record high last week, has fallen for five out of the past six weeks and fell back under the -400,000 net contract level this week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 580,450 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -118,733 contracts from the total net of 699,183 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $101.83 which was a decline of $-1.17 from the previous close of $103.00, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators raised their bearish net positions for 2nd week

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Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators raised their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly fall of -247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,679 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions rose for a second week and to the highest bearish level since February 6th when net positions totaled -2,040 contracts.

Small traders, meanwhile, increased their existing bullish positions higher this week by an equally offsetting +247 contracts to the current level of 1,926 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its twenty-fifth week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators continue to be on the bearish side as they have been since the start of the bitcoin data releases while the small traders remain on the bullish side of this market.

Bitcoin per USD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Futures closed at approximately $7587.25 which was an increase of $96.61 from the previous close of $7490.64, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators cut bullish net positions for 3rd time in 4 weeks

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Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators continued to cut back on their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 111,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly reduction of -3,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,130 net contracts.

Speculative positions declined for the third time out of the past four weeks and for the seventh out of the past ten weeks. Despite this weeks fall, the overall net position remains above the +100,000 contract level for a second straight week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -134,347 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the total net of -136,689 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $122.85 which was a decrease of $-0.34 from the previous close of $123.19, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators raised bullish net positions for 1st time in 3 weeks

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S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 162,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly rise of 38,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,079 net contracts.

Speculative positions had fallen for two straight weeks and by a total of -74,726 contracts before this week’s rebound.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -559,849 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -45,057 contracts from the total net of -514,792 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials continued to push their bearish bets higher for the third time out of the past four weeks and to a new high bearish level since we can find on record.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $275.10 which was a gain of $6.08 from the previous close of $269.02, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Eurodollar Speculators decreased their bearish net positions for 4th week

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Eurodollar Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators advanced their net positions in the Eurodollar futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Eurodollar futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,457,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly gain of 66,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,523,424 net contracts.

Speculators have continued to decrease the overall bearish net position for a fourth consecutive week and by a total of +582,906 contracts over that time-frame. The current position is at a new least bearish level since February 13th when the net position totaled -3,404,985 contracts.

Eurodollar Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 4,164,669 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -71,895 contracts from the total net of 4,236,564 contracts reported the previous week.

ED Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Eurodollar Futures closed at approximately $97.04 which was a decline of $-0.26 from the previous close of $97.30, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators trimmed bearish net positions this week

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VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -36,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly lift of 8,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,380 net contracts.

Speculative positions rose to a record high level on April 10th and then saw steadily decreasing positions and a fall into bearish territory on May 15th. The VIX positions have now been in bearish level for four consecutive weeks while this week’s bets stopped a seven-week decline in VIX bets.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 40,538 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -2,403 contracts from the total net of 42,941 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately $12.40 which was a fall of $-4.62 from the previous close of $17.02, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators increased their net positions for 5th week

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Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators raised their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 19,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly boost of 1,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,453 net contracts.

Speculative bets in favor of silver have risen for five consecutive weeks and are now at the highest bullish level since January 30th when the net positions were 32,422 contracts. Silver contracts had spent a total of seven weeks in bearish territory between late February and early May before resuming the current bullish sentiment.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -37,547 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -2,250 contracts from the total net of -35,297 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $15.52 which was an advance of $0.08 from the previous close of $15.44, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets to highest since February

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Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 47,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 5th. This was a weekly lift of 10,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,600 net contracts.

Speculative positions saw the largest one-week rise in six weeks and to the highest bullish position since February 6th when the net positions totaled 52,955 contracts. Spec copper positions have now risen for three out of the past four weeks and for seven out of the last ten weeks.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -47,851 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -6,616 contracts from the total net of -41,235 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $319.85 which was an increase of $13.60 from the previous close of $306.25, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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