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Currency Speculators continue boosting US Dollar bets higher

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comGet our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar aggregate speculator positions rose to $22.02 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to boost their bets in favor of the US dollar this week while sharply cutting back on euro and British pound bets.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar aggregate net position totaling $22.02 billion as of Tuesday August 7th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $1.96 billion from the $20.06 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative position has now risen for seven out of the past eight weeks to the highest level since January 17th of 2107 when the aggregate measure totaled +$24.44 billion.


US Dollar Index Speculator Positions rise for 16th Straight Week

The latest data also showed that currency speculators continued to raise their bets in favor of the US Dollar Index futures for a sixteenth consecutive week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly gain of 1,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,456 net contracts.

The bullish improvement in the US Dollar Index positions dates back to April 24th (sixteen straight weeks) and the overall net standing is now at the best level since May 23rd of 2017 when bullish bets equaled 31,324 contracts.


Individual Currency Contracts Data this week

We saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contract levels for the speculators category this week.

  • Euro positions dropped this week by over -10,000 bets and fell for a second straight week. The overall net position is now at the lowest level since May 2nd 2017 when net positions totaled -1,653 contracts. The euro position has seen a rather swift decline after reaching a record high bullish position recently on April 17th (+151,476 contracts).
  • British pound sterling positions declined by over -11,000 bets this week and have now dropped for three straight weeks (as well as seven out of the past eight weeks). The bearish net standing is at the highest bearish level since May 2nd of 2017 when the position totaled -81,364 contracts.

Overall, the non-commercial speculators bet in favor of the US Dollar Index (1,646 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (5,650 contracts), Canadian dollar (6,671 contracts) and the Mexican peso (6,745 contracts) this week.

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-12,260 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-11,466 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,686 contracts),  Australian dollar (-3,064 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-847 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -26,094 20,500 10,565 -12,260
GBP 76,239 14,647 -58,852 -11,466
JPY 86,358 -6,749 -62,807 5,650
CHF 66,108 1,235 -46,108 -1,686
CAD 29,728 -5,376 -24,898 6,671
AUD 76,617 5,470 -54,540 -3,064
NZD 28,648 383 -24,527 -847
MXN -36,004 -7,342 33,260 6,745

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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WTI Crude Oil Speculators slightly reduced bullish net positions this week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators trimmed their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 608,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly lowering of -4,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 613,400 net contracts.

The speculative bullish position dipped this week and has now fallen for four out of the past five weeks. The overall net standing, despite the recent weakness, remains highly bullish and above the +600,000 net contract level for a seventh straight week.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -652,348 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -751 contracts from the total net of -651,597 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $14.36 which was an uptick of $0.08 from the previous close of $14.28, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators trimmed their bearish bets from record high

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -586,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly gain of 3,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -590,128 net contracts.

The speculative bearish position had been sharply rising to new record high bearish levels in each of the past three weeks before this week’s small turnaround. The overall bearish position remains above the -500,000 net contract level for a third straight week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

Meanwhile, the commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 774,028 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -8,988 contracts from the total net of 783,016 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $101.56 which was a decline of $-0.02 from the previous close of $101.58, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculator bearish net positions virtually unchanged this week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators very slightly edged their bearish net positions higher in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly decrease of -8 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,603 net contracts.

Speculative bearish contracts have now risen for three out of the past four weeks. The overall bearish position remains above -1,600 net contracts for a fourth consecutive week.

Small traders, meanwhile, edged their existing bullish positions higher this week by an equally offsetting 8 contracts to the current bullish level of 1,611 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its thirty-fourth week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators have continued to be on the bearish side of this market since the start of the bitcoin data releases while the small traders remain on the bullish side of this market.

Bitcoin per USD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Futures closed at approximately $6738.54 which was a drop of $-971.56 from the previous close of $7710.1, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators sharply drop their bullish bets again this week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 12,688 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly decline of -22,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,337 net contracts.

The speculative bullish position declined for a fourth consecutive week this week and has fallen by a total of -68,746 contracts over that time-frame. The overall net position standing is now at the lowest bullish level since December 1st of 2015 when the net position totaled just 9,750 contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -25,609 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 22,309 contracts from the total net of -47,918 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $114.59 which was a shortfall of $-1.40 from the previous close of $115.99, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators lowered their bullish bets for 3rd week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets for a third consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 165,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly fall of -5,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 170,302 net contracts.

The speculative bullish position has declined by a total of -17,733 net contracts over the past three weeks after previously rising for six out of the prior seven weeks. The overall net standing has now fallen under the +170,000 net contract level for the first time in the last five weeks.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -276,704 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 5,461 contracts from the total net of -282,165 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $285.58 which was a gain of $4.25 from the previous close of $281.33, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators pushed bearish bets higher for a 5th straight week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators continued to bet against volatility and increased their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -113,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly decline of -10,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,506 net contracts.

The speculative bearish position has now risen by at least -10,000 contracts for five consecutive weeks and bearish bets have now gained for eight out of the past ten weeks. The overall net bearish standing is at the highest level since December 19th of 2017 when the net position totaled -128,583 contracts.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 120,385 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 10,790 contracts from the total net of 109,595 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately 10.93 which was a decline of -1.90 from the previous close of 12.83, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Eurodollar Speculators decreased bearish bets for 5th week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Eurodollar Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the Eurodollar futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Eurodollar futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,085,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly advance of 21,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,107,506 net contracts.

The speculative bearish position in Eurodollar futures fell for a fifth consecutive week and for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks. The overall net bearish standing is now at the lowest level since June 26th but does remain above the -3,000,000 net contract level for a sixth straight week.

Eurodollar Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 3,780,039 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -34,804 contracts from the total net of 3,814,843 contracts reported the previous week.

ED Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Eurodollar Futures closed at approximately $96.94 which was unchanged from the previous close of $96.94, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators cut back again on their bullish bets this week

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 4,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly fall of -1,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,864 net contracts.

The speculative position has now fallen for seven out of the past eight weeks after a slight increase in bullish position last week. The overall bullish standing remains under the +10,000 net position level now for a fourth straight week.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -22,118 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 2,031 contracts from the total net of -24,149 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $14.43 which was a loss of $-0.18 from the previous close of $14.61, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators reduced their positions to lowest since Oct. 2016

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 2,190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly lowering of -6,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,224 net contracts.

The copper speculative position declined for a second straight week and for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. The overall net position is at the lowest standing since October 25th of 2016 when positions were at -13,754 contracts.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -5,456 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 3,969 contracts from the total net of -9,425 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $275.2 which was a drop of $-7.95 from the previous close of $283.15, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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