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US Dollar Index Speculators boosted bullish net positions once more this week

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US Dollar Index Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large currency speculators raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets higher again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 4,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly rise of 249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,414 net contracts.

Speculators have now increased their bets in favor of the US dollar index futures for an eighth straight week. The overall dollar position has now been in bullish territory for five consecutive weeks and is at the highest bullish level since July 3rd 2017 when the total was +5,836 contracts.

US Dollar Index Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -9,801 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -409 contracts from the total net of -9,392 contracts reported the previous week.

UUP:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the UUP ETF, which tracks the price of US Dollar Index, closed at approximately $24.71 which was a decrease of $-0.04 from the previous close of $24.75, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Forex Speculators upped their US Dollar bearish bets for a 2nd week

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-7.42 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their aggregate bearish bets for the US dollar again this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-7.42 billion as of Tuesday June 12th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-1.88 billion from the $-5.54 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative bearish position increased for a second straight week after having six weeks of declining bearish levels that had brought the USD position to its second least bearish level all year. The overall bearish level remains under the $-10 billion threshold for a fifth straight week.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw just one substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contract level for the speculators category.

Mexican peso speculative bets continued to decline sharply and dropped by over -10,000 contracts for a fifth consecutive week. Overall, the speculator peso bets have now decreased for nine weeks in a row and the MXN spec position is in a bearish position for a second straight week.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the British pound sterling (3,624 contracts), Japanese yen (8,489 contracts), Swiss franc (1,971 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,051 contracts), Australian dollar (4,973 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,623 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-1,011 weekly change in contracts) and the Mexican peso (-10,590 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -97,526 -2,924 88,225 -1,011
GBP -180 -3,979 10,969 3,624
JPY 11,776 2,029 5,052 8,489
CHF 61,344 -1,107 -37,245 1,971
CAD 20,041 -320 -14,988 1,051
AUD 29,066 -7,536 -15,235 4,973
NZD -3,621 -2,946 7,006 2,623
MXN 25,007 11,055 -21,700 -10,590

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:

 

 


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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WTI Crude Oil Speculators lifted bullish bets for 1st time in 8 weeks

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WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 595,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly gain of 11,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 583,576 net contracts.

Speculative bets had fallen in the previous seven straight weeks to the lowest bullish level since since November 21st before this week’s turnaround. Overall, the bullish position remains under the +600,000 net contract level for a second straight week.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -640,748 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -7,462 contracts from the total net of -633,286 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $13.40 which was a boost of $0.18 from the previous close of $13.22, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators sharply trimmed bearish bets for 2nd week

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large treasury speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -335,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly increase of 61,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -397,546 net contracts.

Speculative bearish bets have now fallen for two straight weeks and by a total of 135,073 net contracts. The bearish net position had reached a record high bearish on May 29th with a total of -471,067 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 546,268 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -34,182 contracts from the total net of 580,450 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $101.55 which was a decline of $-0.28 from the previous close of $101.83, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators increased their bullish net positions for 2nd time in 3 weeks

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Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators raised their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 120,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly lift of 8,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,416 net contracts.

Speculative bets have been mostly directionless over the past ten weeks with a one step forward and one step back activity. This week’s rise brought gold bets higher for the second time in the past three weeks and the overall net position remains above the +100,000 contract level for a third straight week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -140,587 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -6,240 contracts from the total net of -134,347 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $122.82 which was a drop of $-0.03 from the previous close of $122.85, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators slightly edged their net bearish positions higher

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Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators slightly added to their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly lowering of -19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,926 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions edged higher for a third straight week and to a new highest bearish level since February 6th when net positions totaled -2,040 contracts.

Small traders, meanwhile, also edged their existing bullish positions higher this week by an equally offsetting +19 contracts to the current level of 1,945 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its twenty-sixth week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators have been on the bearish side since the start of the bitcoin data releases and remain bearish while the small traders continue to be on the bullish side of this market.

Bitcoin per USD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Futures closed at approximately $6548.79 which was a decline of $-1038.46 from the previous close of $7587.25, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators raised bullish net positions for 2nd week

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S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators lifted their net bullish positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 169,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly gain of 7,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,136 net contracts.

Speculative positions have gained two weeks in a row to a bullish level above the +160,000 net contract level for a second week.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -586,561 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -26,712 contracts from the total net of -559,849 contracts reported the previous week.

Commercials continue to push their bearish bets higher as this week’s level is the highest bearish position we have on record. Offsetting the commercial short position is a huge bullish position by the small traders (+417,131 net contracts) and the bullish speculator position (+169,430 net contracts).

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $278.92 which was an increase of $3.82 from the previous close of $275.1, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Eurodollar Speculators continued to trim their bearish net positions for 5th week

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Eurodollar Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the Eurodollar futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Eurodollar futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,328,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly rise of 129,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,457,388 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions in the Eurodollar have fallen for five straight weeks and are back down to the lowest bearish level since February 6th when net positions totaled -3,155,009 contracts.

Eurodollar Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 4,032,003 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -132,666 contracts from the total net of 4,164,669 contracts reported the previous week.

ED Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Eurodollar Futures closed at approximately $96.98 which was a fall of $-0.06 from the previous close of $97.04, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators boosted their bearish net positions further this week

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VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators sharply increased their bearish net positions once again in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -53,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly lowering of -17,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,189 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions have now increased for eight out of the last nine weeks and are at the largest bearish position since January 30th when the net position was -59,357 contracts. VIX spec positions had spent fourteen weeks in bullish territory from February to the middle of May before turning back into an overall bearish level.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 57,116 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 16,578 contracts from the total net of 40,538 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately $12.34 which was a loss of $-0.06 from the previous close of $12.40, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators sharply raised their bullish bets, gains for 6th week

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Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators sharply raised their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 49,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 12th. This was a weekly increase of 30,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,434 net contracts.

The speculative bets in favor of silver have now risen for six straight weeks going from an overall short position to this week’s standing which is the highest level since November 28th of 2017.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -67,382 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -29,835 contracts from the total net of -37,547 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $15.87 which was an increase of $0.35 from the previous close of $15.52, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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