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Currency Speculators sharply cut Euro & Pound bets, raised Peso, Franc & USD Index bets

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Speculators positions rose to $16.41 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators boosted their bets again for the Mexican Peso this week while also adding to US dollar index and Swiss franc positions. Speculators also cut back sharply on the European common currency as well as the British pound sterling.

The broad aggregate dollar position, published by Reuters (chart above), showed that non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $16.41 billion as of Tuesday July 10th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $3.25 billion from the $13.16 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

This aggregate measure of the dollar position is at the highest level now since March 21st of 2017 when the bullish position totaled $18.44 billion.

Individual Currency Contract Data this week

For individual currency contracts this week, the non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, bet in favor of the the Mexican peso (22,217 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (373 contracts) and the US dollar index (13 contracts), according to the data reported through Tuesday July 10th.

On the flip side, the currencies whose speculative bets declined on the week were the euro (-12,390 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-11,622 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,102 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,439 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,743 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-170 contracts).

See more individual currency contract information and charts below.

US Dollar Index positions keep improving

Speculators continued to raise bets for the US dollar index this week (although very slightly by just 13 contracts) to a total a net position of 18,685 contracts. The spec position has now improved for twelve consecutive weeks and to a new highest bullish level since June 13th 2017 when the net positions totaled 28,025 contracts.

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -29,780 18,159 24,357 -12,390
GBP 56,197 6,565 -40,403 -11,622
JPY 63,354 7,655 -39,832 -1,102
CHF 61,688 -203 -40,121 373
CAD 59,195 1,044 -52,887 -3,439
AUD 62,880 334 -40,973 -1,743
NZD 31,242 900 -26,574 -170
MXN -27,459 -24,729 28,132 22,217

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

Euro positions dropped sharply this week by over -12,000 contracts. The euro speculator sentiment has been basically in free fall and has fallen for nine out of the past ten weeks after making a record high above +150,000 contracts in April.


British Pound Sterling:

British pound sterling positions dropped sharply this week by over -10,000 contracts. The GBP has fallen for four weeks in a row to the most bearish level since September of 2017.


Japanese Yen:

Japanese yen positions dipped for a second week this week and for the third week out of the past four. The overall position level is now the most bearish since March 13th.


Swiss Franc:

Swiss franc positions rose this week after two down weeks. The overall net position remains bearish above -40,000 net contracts for a second straight week. The franc position has been bearish for 49 straight weeks now dating back to August 2017.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar positions dropped for a third straight week this week. The overall net position has now been bearish for sixteen straight weeks and is at the most bearish standing since June 20th 2017.


Australian Dollar:

Australian dollar bets fell this week after two up weeks. The overall net position now remains in a bearish position for a fifteenth straight week.


New Zealand Dollar:

New Zealand dollar bets declined this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. The overall net position has now been bearish for four weeks in a row and is in the largest bearish position dating back to 1999, according to our records.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso bets jumped again this week by over +22,000 contracts following last week’s +18,425 contract gain. The overall position is back into bullish territory for a second week.

 


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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10-Year Note Speculators pared their bearish bets from record position

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -439,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly rise of 60,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -500,076 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions retreated this week after surging to a record bearish level last week that marked the first time bearish positions had pierced the -500,000 contract level. The overall net position level is above the -400,000 contract standing for a second straight week and for the fourth week out of the past ten.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 614,541 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -53,927 contracts from the total net of 668,468 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $102.27 which was a decrease of $-0.24 from the previous close of $102.51, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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WTI Crude Oil Speculators edged their bullish bets lower after 2 strong weeks

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WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators slightly cut back on their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 654,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly reduction of -2,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 656,720 net contracts.

Speculative bullish positions had risen sharply in the previous two weeks (by a total of +75,773 contracts) before this week’s slight decline. The overall net position is above the +600,000 contract level for a third straight week after dipping below this level for three weeks through June 19th.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -687,081 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -3,155 contracts from the total net of -683,926 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $15.07 which was a rise of $0.15 from the previous close of $14.92, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators edged their bearish net positions lower this week

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Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators slightly decreased their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly increase of 46 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,501 net contracts.

Speculative contracts have now improved or gotten less bearish for three out of the past four weeks.

Small traders, meanwhile, trimmed their existing bullish positions this week by an equally offsetting -46 contracts to the current level of -1,455 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its thirtieth week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators started and continue to remain on the bearish side of this market while the small traders have been on the bullish side since the start of the bitcoin data releases.

Bitcoin per USD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Futures closed at approximately $6373.49 which was a loss of $-235.9 from the previous close of $6609.39, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators increased bullish net positions for 2nd week

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Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators slightly raised their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 81,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly boost of 3,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,327 net contracts.

The speculative bullish gold position rose modestly for a second straight week following two large weekly declines. The overall bullish position remains under the +100,000 net contract level for a fourth consecutive week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -100,394 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -7,244 contracts from the total net of -93,150 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $118.93 which was a gain of $0.28 from the previous close of $118.65, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators advanced their bullish net positions this week

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S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators slightly lifted their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 171,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly increase of 3,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,981 net contracts.

The speculative position in the SP500 mini bounced back this week after a down week last week (-29,205 contract decline) and has now risen for five out of the past six weeks. The overall net bullish position has now remained above the +160,000 net contract level for six consecutive weeks.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -249,244 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 16,743 contracts from the total net of -265,987 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $278.9 which was a rise of $8.0 from the previous close of $270.9, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Eurodollar Speculators boosted their bearish net positions for 2nd week

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Eurodollar Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators increased their bearish net positions in the Eurodollar futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Eurodollar futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,291,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly reduction of -90,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,200,581 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions rose for a second straight week following seven weeks of declining bearish bets. The overall bearish level is back above the -3,000,000 net contract level for a second week and is at the most bearish level of the past four weeks.

Eurodollar Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 3,994,199 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 132,953 contracts from the total net of 3,861,246 contracts reported the previous week.

ED Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Eurodollar Futures closed at approximately $96.985 which was a shortfall of $-0.045 from the previous close of $97.03, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators added to their bearish net positions this week

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VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators boosted their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -52,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly lowering of -19,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,219 net contracts.

Speculators had seen their bearish bets fall in the previous two weeks before this week’s increase. The overall bearish position is the highest level of the past three weeks and back above the -50,000 contract level for the first time since June 19th.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 64,827 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 24,175 contracts from the total net of 40,652 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately $12.64 which was a decrease of $-3.5 from the previous close of $16.14, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators dropped their bullish bets for 4th week

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Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 23,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly lowering of -983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,682 net contracts.

Speculative positions have declined by over -26,031 contracts in total over the past four weeks. Overall, the silver spec position is now at the lowest level in the past five weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -38,600 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -45 contracts from the total net of -38,555 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $15.12 which was a boost of $0.09 from the previous close of $15.03, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators continued to reduce their bullish bets again this week

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Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 14,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 10th. This was a weekly decline of -11,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,505 net contracts.

This week’s decline in speculative positions brings the spec level lower for a fourth consecutive week and positions have fallen by -56,354 contracts over that time-frame. The current bullish level is now at the lowest point in just about a year (July 11, 2017).

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -16,738 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 13,378 contracts from the total net of -30,116 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $283.95 which was a shortfall of $-7.75 from the previous close of $291.7, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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