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US Dollar Index Speculators added to their bearish bets this week

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators edged their bearish net positions slightly higher in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 1st. This was a weekly decrease of -321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,754 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 4,061 contracts (to a weekly total of 23,708 contracts) but being more than offset by the gross bearish position (shorts) which rose by 4,382 contracts on the week (to a total of 26,783 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators raised their bearish bets for a second straight week and for the third time in the past four weeks this week. The Dollar Index spec position has now been in bearish territory for four straight weeks after rising to a small bullish position on November 3rd. Overall, the Dollar position has now been in a bearish standing for twenty-three out of the past twenty-five weeks, dating back to early June when the streak of 109 consecutive weeks of dollar bullish positions ended.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In all of the individual contracts data, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (1,644 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (9,231 contracts), Japanese yen (7,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (746 contracts) and the Mexican peso (5,246 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-321 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-335 contracts), Canadian dollar (-4,397 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-5,523 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index -3,075 -321
EuroFx 139,894 1,644
GBP -7,899 9,231
JPY 47,503 7,261
CHF 14,651 -335
CAD -21,243 -4,397
AUD -10,800 -5,523
NZD 9,058 746
MXN 29,041 5,246

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 139,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,250 net contracts.

 


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -7,899 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly gain of 9,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,130 net contracts.

 


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of 47,503 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly gain of 7,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,242 net contracts.

 


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,651 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,986 net contracts.

 


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of -21,243 contracts this week. This was a lowering of -4,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,846 net contracts.

 


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures equaled a net position of -10,800 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,277 net contracts.

 


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing reached a net position of 9,058 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,312 net contracts.

 


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators equaled a net position of 29,041 contracts this week. This was a weekly boost of 5,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,795 net contracts.

 


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

WTI Crude Oil Speculators edged bullish bets lower after strong run

WTI Crude Oil Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020


WTI Crude Oil Large Trader Net Positions:


WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 517,165 contracts in the data reported through December 1st. This was a weekly shortfall of -5,474 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 522,639 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 4,190 contracts (to a weekly total of 677,347 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) increased by 9,664 contracts for the week (to a total of 160,182 contracts).

Crude oil speculators trimmed their bullish bets this week following a strong three-week run of rising bullish positions. Previously, bullish bets had jumped by a combined total of +80,179 contracts over the prior three weeks that pushed the net position back over the +500,000 contract level for the first time in twelve weeks and move the net position to the highest level in sixteen weeks. Despite this week’s slight decline, the net position remains above the +500,000 contract level for a second straight week at a total of +517,165 contracts.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 52.0 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5
– Net Position: 517,165
– Gross Longs: 677,347
– Gross Shorts: 160,182
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.8

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -559,995 contracts. This was a weekly change of -4,209 contracts from the total net of -555,786 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 41.8 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.9
– Net Position: -559,995
– Gross Longs: 646,931
– Gross Shorts: 1,206,926
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 42,830 contracts. This was a weekly change of 9,683 contracts from the total net of 33,147 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 88.6 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.5
– Net Position: 42,830
– Gross Longs: 96,053
– Gross Shorts: 53,223
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.6

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com

10-Year Treasury Note Speculators drop bullish bets for 2nd week

10-Year Note Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020


10-Year Note Large Trader Net Positions:


10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets once again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 25,748 contracts in the data reported through December 1st. This was a weekly drop of -89,227 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,975 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -59,080 contracts (to a weekly total of 544,817 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) gained by 30,147 contracts for the week (to a total of 519,069 contracts).

Speculative positions fell sharply this week for a second straight week and dropped the overall bullish standing to the lowest level of the past month. The bullish position has fallen by a total of -126,571 contracts in just the past two weeks and brought the current standing to a small bullish position of just +25,748 contracts. The speculative position has mostly remained in a small bullish level since ending a long streak of bearish positions in early June.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 86.1 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2
– Net Position: 25,748
– Gross Longs: 544,817
– Gross Shorts: 519,069
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of 20,265 contracts. This was a weekly change of 97,594 contracts from the total net of -77,329 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish-Extreme level with a score of 19.7 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 68.3
– Net Position: 20,265
– Gross Longs: 2,205,787
– Gross Shorts: 2,185,522
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.1

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -46,013 contracts. This was a weekly change of -8,367 contracts from the total net of -37,646 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 63.7 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6
– Net Position: -46,013
– Gross Longs: 357,899
– Gross Shorts: 403,912
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.0

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com

Gold Speculators pushed bullish bets to 19-week high

Gold Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020


Gold Large Trader Net Positions:


Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 260,314 contracts in the data reported through December 01 2020. This was a weekly gain of 16,412 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,902 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 4,020 contracts (to a weekly total of 324,344 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -12,392 contracts for the week (to a total of 64,030 contracts).

Gold speculators sharply boosted their bets this week for the second time in the past three weeks. The increase marked the largest one-week rise in the past nine weeks and pushed the bullish position to the highest level in nineteen weeks, dating back to July 21st. The gold speculator level has now been in a continuous bullish position for one hundred and seven weeks, starting back on November 20th of 2018.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 76.2 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 60.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.9
– Net Position: 260,314
– Gross Longs: 324,344
– Gross Shorts: 64,030
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -293,263 contracts. This was a weekly change of -8,434 contracts from the total net of -284,829 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 22.4 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0
– Net Position: -293,263
– Gross Longs: 110,108
– Gross Shorts: 403,371
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2


Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 32,949 contracts. This was a weekly change of -7,978 contracts from the total net of 40,927 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 63.6 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2
– Net Position: 32,949
– Gross Longs: 55,439
– Gross Shorts: 22,490
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.3

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com

Silver Speculators raise bullish bets for 4th time in 5 weeks

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020


Silver Large Trader Net Positions:


Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 47,892 contracts in the data reported through December 01 2020. This was a weekly gain of 2,212 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,680 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 2,252 contracts (to a weekly total of 77,023 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) edged up by 40 contracts for the week (to a total of 29,131 contracts).

Silver speculators added to their bullish bets for fourth time in the past five weeks. The boost in positions has pushed the current bullish standing to its highest level since March 3rd. Speculative positions have now been in bullish territory for seventy-eight straight weeks, dating back to June of 2019.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 71.9 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.1
– Net Position: 47,892
– Gross Longs: 77,023
– Gross Shorts: 29,131
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -61,885 contracts. This was a weekly change of -1,725 contracts from the total net of -60,160 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 33.7 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 70.5
– Net Position: -61,885
– Gross Longs: 45,567
– Gross Shorts: 107,452
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1


Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 13,993 contracts. This was a weekly change of -487 contracts from the total net of 14,480 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 21.6 percent.


Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.7
– Net Position: 13,993
– Gross Longs: 24,131
– Gross Shorts: 10,138
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.7

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com

US Dollar Index Speculators trimmed their bearish bets. Japanese Yen bets fall

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators edged their bearish net positions lower in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 17th. This was a weekly change of 154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,128 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 937 contracts (to a weekly total of 19,540 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a gain by 783 contracts on the week (to a total of 20,514 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators slightly reduced their bearish bets this week. The dollar index position is currently at approximately a neutral position in the big scheme of things with the net position under a thousand contracts. The price of the dollar index (DXY) has been on a downtrend after hitting a multiyear high of just about 103 in March. Since then, the dollar has dropped steadily and closed this week just below the 92.40 exchange rate.


Individual Currencies Data this week: Japanese Yen bets fall

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

  • Japanese yen bets dropped sharply this week following strong gains in previous weeks. The yen speculative positions fell by over -12,000 contracts this week after rising in the previous three weeks and by a total of +27,711 contracts over that time-frame. The gains in the yen positions had brought the November 10th level to the highest standing in the past two hundred and eleven weeks before this week’s turnaround. The yen position has now remained in bullish territory for thirty-seven weeks after turning positive in March.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (154 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (990 contracts), Australian dollar (2,597 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,151 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,087 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-1,327 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-2,051 contracts), Japanese yen (-12,227 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-940 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

 

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index -974 154
EuroFx 133,960 -1,327
GBP -19,746 -2,051
JPY 29,667 -12,227
CHF 14,924 -940
CAD -20,359 990
AUD -6,123 2,597
NZD 8,868 1,151
MXN 20,409 2,087

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 133,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 135,287 net contracts.

 


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -19,746 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly reduction of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,695 net contracts.

 


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of 29,667 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decrease of -12,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,894 net contracts.

 


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,924 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,864 net contracts.

 


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -20,359 contracts this week. This was a increase of 990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,349 net contracts.

 


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures equaled a net position of -6,123 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,720 net contracts.

 


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of 8,868 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 1,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,717 net contracts.

 


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 20,409 contracts this week. This was a weekly boost of 2,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,322 net contracts.

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

WTI Crude Oil Speculators raised their bullish bets for 2nd week

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 


WTI Crude Oil Large Trader Net Positions:


WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators sharply raised their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 480,811 contracts in the data reported through November 17th. This was a weekly gain of 17,273 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 463,538 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) ascending by 4,502 contracts (to a weekly total of 638,245 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -12,771 contracts for the week (to a total of 157,434 contracts).

Crude oil speculators sharply raised their bullish positions for a second straight week and by a total of +38,351 contracts in these past two weeks. The crude bullish bets have gained for five out of the past seven weeks as well. This recent bullishness has pushed the speculator sentiment to its second highest level of the past eleven weeks at over +480,000 contracts. The current standing, however, remains under the +500,000 net contract level for a twelfth straight week following a twenty-week streak where bullish bets had stayed above that threshold through August 25th.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 44.1 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6
– Net Position: 480,811
– Gross Longs: 638,245
– Gross Shorts: 157,434
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -504,036 contracts. This was a weekly change of -18,543 contracts from the total net of -485,493 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 53.3 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.9
– Net Position: -504,036
– Gross Longs: 660,992
– Gross Shorts: 1,165,028
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 23,225 contracts. This was a weekly change of 1,270 contracts from the total net of 21,955 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 56.1 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.9
– Net Position: 23,225
– Gross Longs: 84,480
– Gross Shorts: 61,255
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

 

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Gold Speculators raised their bullish bets to 17-week high

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Gold Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 


Gold Large Trader Net Positions:


Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 251,270 contracts in the data reported through November 17th. This was a weekly gain of 11,534 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,736 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 11,182 contracts (to a weekly total of 329,698 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -352 contracts for the week (to a total of 78,428 contracts).

Gold speculators sharply raised their bullish bets this week by the most of the past seven weeks. Previously, bullish bets had fallen for three straight weeks but this week’s turnaround pushed the bullish position to the highest level of the past seventeen weeks. The gold speculator sentiment has continued to be strongly bullish as net positions have remained above the +200,000 contract level for seventy-five straight weeks, dating back to June of 2019.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 73.9 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 59.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.1
– Net Position: 251,270
– Gross Longs: 329,698
– Gross Shorts: 78,428
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -294,572 contracts. This was a weekly change of -11,149 contracts from the total net of -283,423 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 22.1 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 72.0
– Net Position: -294,572
– Gross Longs: 106,681
– Gross Shorts: 401,253
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 43,302 contracts. This was a weekly change of -385 contracts from the total net of 43,687 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 88.9 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.8
– Net Position: 43,302
– Gross Longs: 64,301
– Gross Shorts: 20,999
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

 


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10-Year Treasury Note Speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets to 160-week high

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10-Year Note Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 


10-Year Note Large Trader Net Positions:


10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 152,319 contracts in the data reported through November 17 2020. This was a weekly rise of 57,703 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 30,059 contracts (to a weekly total of 587,470 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -27,644 contracts for the week (to a total of 435,151 contracts).

The 10-Year speculators sharply raised their bullish bets this week for a second consecutive week. The speculator position has now gained by a total of +158,009 net contracts in just the past two weeks and brings the current bullish standing to its highest level in the past one hundred and sixty weeks, dating all the way back to October 24th of 2017.

The large speculators Strength Index level (chart below), the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 100.0 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4
– Net Position: 152,319
– Gross Longs: 587,470
– Gross Shorts: 435,151
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -103,569 contracts. This was a weekly change of -50,512 contracts from the total net of -53,057 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish-Extreme level with a score of 7.8 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 70.3
– Net Position: -103,569
– Gross Longs: 2,181,114
– Gross Shorts: 2,284,683
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -48,750 contracts. This was a weekly change of -7,191 contracts from the total net of -41,559 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 63.0 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9
– Net Position: -48,750
– Gross Longs: 371,509
– Gross Shorts: 420,259
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators trimmed their bearish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

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VIX Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 


VIX Large Trader Net Positions:


VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators slightly cut back on their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -87,172 contracts in the data reported through November 17 2020. This was a weekly change of 2,302 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,474 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by just 78 contracts (to a weekly total of 41,646 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -2,224 contracts for the week (to a total of 128,818 contracts).

The VIX speculative position has now seen lower bearish positions in three out of the past four weeks. Previously, bearish bets had risen above the -100,000 net contract level for three straight weeks and hit a thirty-five week high on October 20th.

The large speculators Strength Index level (chart below), the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 42.1 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction. At the extreme levels, specs are also very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5
– Net Position: -87,172
– Gross Longs: 41,646
– Gross Shorts: 128,818
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of 90,772 contracts. This was a weekly change of 1,238 contracts from the total net of 89,534 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 57.2 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1
– Net Position: 90,772
– Gross Longs: 175,978
– Gross Shorts: 85,206
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -3,600 contracts. This was a weekly change of -3,540 contracts from the total net of -60 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 72.3 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4
– Net Position: -3,600
– Gross Longs: 17,263
– Gross Shorts: 20,863
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.9

 

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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