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Australian dollar, Brazilian Real lead Forex Speculators bets while Euro bets hit 130-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Currency Futures Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT Reports data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Australian dollar, Brazilian Real lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

Currency Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar (2,635 contracts) with the Brazilian real (2,494 contracts), Mexican peso (2,286 contracts), Canadian dollar (952 contracts), US Dollar Index (416 contracts), Bitcoin (332 contracts) and the Swiss franc (143 contracts) also having higher bets on the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-3,567 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-2,724 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-1,650 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-1,204 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Positioning Notes:

Highlighting the COT Reports (Week 35) changes this week was the Brazilian real’s gains in speculator bets. The Brazilian currency has now seen higher bullish bets in three out of the past four weeks and in five out of the past seven weeks as well. Speculators had previous strong sentiment for the real in February and March with bullish bets hitting an all-time record high in March above the +50,000 contracts level. However, the bullish strength only last a few months as sharp declines hit the real in July and resulted in a net bearish position of -1,130 contracts on August 2nd. Since then, speculators have started to build back their bullish positions and pushed the current standing to +8,859 contracts this week.

Australian dollar contracts rose this week but are looking like just a small rebound after a long bearish streak. The Aussie speculator bets had fallen for six straight weeks and pushed the overall net position to the most bearish level since March 8th, a span of twenty-four weeks. Overall, the Australian dollar’s speculative position has now been in a bearish standing for sixty-seven straight weeks, dating back to May 25th of 2021.

The Swiss franc speculator positions this week improved for a fourth consecutive week and are now at the least bearish level in just about a year. The overall net standing for the franc has been in a bearish position for fifty-one straight weeks, dating back to September 14th of last year.

Finally, the Euro net speculator position declined for a third consecutive week this week and has fallen by a total of -13,140 contracts over that time-frame. These declines have dropped the Euro’s net standing, currently at -47,676 contracts, to the most bearish level in the past one hundred and thirty weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020. The EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen back to below parity after testing these levels in July. The currency pair currently trades near 20-year lows and closed the week at the 0.9956 exchange rate.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index60,1848935,51584-38,538153,02350
EUR720,08190-47,6762028,8608418,8166
GBP262,00485-29,1704951,49863-22,3280
JPY247,03087-41,5314361,28766-19,75613
CHF47,16835-2,2625115,47168-13,20913
CAD158,1653624,17967-29,039454,86040
AUD169,26759-57,3933262,50366-5,11040
NZD44,37633-3,124666,53340-3,40912
MXN206,82352-29,0301525,765843,26557
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL66,706638,85959-10,922412,06389
Bitcoin14,440841,296100-1,32703114

 


Bitcoin and US Dollar Index lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin Futures (100.0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (84.2 percent) lead the currency markets and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). The Canadian Dollar (66.5 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (66.0 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The next lowest is the Euro (20.4 percent) followed by the Australian Dollar (31.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (43.3 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (83.5 percent)
EuroFX (20.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (43.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (50.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (66.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (65.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (66.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.0 percent)
Brazil Real (59.1 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (56.6 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.2 percent)

Bitcoin, Swiss Franc and British Pound lead the 6-Week Strength Trends

Currency Futures Speculator Strength Trends (6-Weeks)

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Bitcoin (31.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (21.9 percent), the British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19.7 percent) fill out the other top movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-13.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-5.9 percent) followed by the Euro (-1.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.4 percent)
EuroFX (-1.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-5.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (21.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-17.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.4 percent)
Brazil Real (-1.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-3.8 percent)
Bitcoin (31.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.9 percent)


Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:85.93.09.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.867.14.0
– Net Position:35,515-38,5383,023
– Gross Longs:51,6721,8225,431
– Gross Shorts:16,15740,3602,408
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.0 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.214.649.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.94.76.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -47,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.157.211.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.753.28.6
– Net Position:-47,67628,86018,816
– Gross Longs:202,258411,68480,871
– Gross Shorts:249,934382,82462,055
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.484.25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.53.2-10.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.366.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.546.315.7
– Net Position:-29,17051,498-22,328
– Gross Longs:58,477172,79618,706
– Gross Shorts:87,647121,29841,034
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.162.90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-11.6-21.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.166.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.941.616.7
– Net Position:-41,53161,287-19,756
– Gross Longs:54,513163,99121,436
– Gross Shorts:96,044102,70441,192
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.365.613.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-5.8-12.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.357.516.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.124.744.8
– Net Position:-2,26215,471-13,209
– Gross Longs:11,91527,1137,906
– Gross Shorts:14,17711,64221,115
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 12.3 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.868.212.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-6.0-16.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.139.122.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.857.419.1
– Net Position:24,179-29,0394,860
– Gross Longs:58,70461,82135,000
– Gross Shorts:34,52590,86030,140
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.544.539.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-16.95.6

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.567.911.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.431.014.1
– Net Position:-57,39362,503-5,110
– Gross Longs:31,304114,95718,758
– Gross Shorts:88,69752,45423,868
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.665.540.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.29.92.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.056.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.041.312.8
– Net Position:-3,1246,533-3,409
– Gross Longs:16,40724,8612,266
– Gross Shorts:19,53118,3285,675
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.040.512.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.11.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.146.03.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.133.51.5
– Net Position:-29,03025,7653,265
– Gross Longs:103,62395,0986,441
– Gross Shorts:132,65369,3333,176
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.083.556.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-0.91.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,365 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.649.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.465.42.2
– Net Position:8,859-10,9222,063
– Gross Longs:30,44332,7193,543
– Gross Shorts:21,58443,6411,480
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.140.688.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.60.611.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.60.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.69.76.7
– Net Position:1,296-1,32731
– Gross Longs:11,77775996
– Gross Shorts:10,4811,402965
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.013.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.6-61.3-12.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Gold, Platinum and Copper Speculators lead Weekly Precious Metals Bets lower

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Metals Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold, Platinum and Copper lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the way for the precious metals markets this week was Palladium with a gain of 665 contracts.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,113 contracts) with Platinum (-4,802 contracts), Copper (-4,265 contracts) and Silver (-3,771 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,470,2070229,1895-256,2489527,05948
Gold459,1652117,73410-129,6799211,9452
Silver138,7146-8,27102651008,0068
Copper158,3900-23,2551924,98583-1,73015
Palladium5,8750-1,129161,32382-19433
Platinum70,74740-5,3781646994,73228
Natural Gas978,8814-128,7654092,4636036,30266
Brent180,95224-40,0134436,585543,42856
Heating Oil283,4272925,19679-43,7612518,56563
Soybeans605,924783,56240-52,79168-30,77119
Corn1,267,7350283,39766-225,75940-57,63810
Coffee193,889748,68781-50,983232,29621
Sugar752,642962,55149-72,5935410,04220
Wheat288,5450-11,499414,91481-3,41593

 


All Metals Strength Scores are in Bearish Extreme Levels

Metals Speculator Strength Score (3-YR Range)

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets continue to have very weak speculator sentiment. All markets currently have bearish extreme strength scores under 20 percent. Copper (19.4 percent) is the highest and is followed by Palladium (16.5 percent) and Gold (9.6 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) is at the absolute bottom of its 3-Year range followed by Platinum (0.7 percent) which is not far away.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.7 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.4 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (0.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (16.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Metals Speculator Strength Trend (6-Weeks)

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (14.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (8.7 percent) and Copper (0.5 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-11.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next market with a lower trend score was Platinum (-1.5 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.0 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.9 percent)
Copper (0.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (14.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.7 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.227.68.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.655.85.9
– Net Position:117,734-129,67911,945
– Gross Longs:235,314126,53538,918
– Gross Shorts:117,580256,21426,973
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.692.31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-6.3-14.7

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.742.216.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.642.010.6
– Net Position:-8,2712658,006
– Gross Longs:49,46858,59222,715
– Gross Shorts:57,73958,32714,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.07.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.28.45.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.151.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.836.09.5
– Net Position:-23,25524,985-1,730
– Gross Longs:46,10582,02313,256
– Gross Shorts:69,36057,03814,986
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.482.915.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.50.9-10.5

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.938.912.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.538.05.4
– Net Position:-5,3786464,732
– Gross Longs:29,63527,5018,556
– Gross Shorts:35,01326,8553,824
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.228.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.51.22.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.259.115.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.536.619.2
– Net Position:-1,1291,323-194
– Gross Longs:1,4243,475932
– Gross Shorts:2,5532,1521,126
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.582.232.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-16.620.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

5-Year, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Weekly Speculator Bets Lower

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

COT Bonds Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

Bonds Futures Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets were the Eurodollar (21,409 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (20,439 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (7,103 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-61,931 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-58,934 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-40,457 contracts), the Fed Funds (-17,884 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-17,703 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,583,49415-2,857,40213,053,63096-196,22861
FedFunds1,861,8956984,76650-78,24650-6,52043
2-Year1,966,5128-281,60025348,41296-66,81221
Long T-Bond1,233,30250-68,8346240,7892528,04575
10-Year3,559,44534-440,1036558,95888-118,85552
5-Year4,037,08553-565,4560694,38198-128,92546

 


US Treasury Bond & Fed Funds Futures lead the Strength Scores

Bonds Speculator Strength Scores (3-YR Range 0-100)

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) continues to lead the bonds markets although it is cooling off from past months and from last week’s score of 67.9 percent. The Fed Funds (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above the 3-Year midpoint of 50 percent.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Eurodollar (0.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently. All three of these markets are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent) and are near the bottoms of their 3-Year ranges.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (33.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (40.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
Eurodollar (0.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.1 percent)

10-Year, 5-Year & 2-Year lead Strength Trends sharply lower

Bonds Speculator Strength Score Trends (6-Weeks)

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds and is the only positive score in the latest data.

The 10-Year Bond (-50.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-46.5 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-44.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores. These three market trends are all sharply lower as the speculator sentiment has become much weaker.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-44.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-35.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-46.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-32.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-50.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-41.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-8.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
Eurodollar (-3.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-2.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,857,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,878,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.869.05.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.637.17.7
– Net Position:-2,857,4023,053,630-196,228
– Gross Longs:556,3796,613,120541,288
– Gross Shorts:3,413,7813,559,490737,516
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.595.661.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.92.121.5

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 84,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.871.32.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.275.52.3
– Net Position:84,766-78,246-6,520
– Gross Longs:293,5311,328,26936,739
– Gross Shorts:208,7651,406,51543,259
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.150.443.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.63.35.1

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -281,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.583.07.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.865.210.8
– Net Position:-281,600348,412-66,812
– Gross Longs:108,3971,631,374146,211
– Gross Shorts:389,9971,282,962213,023
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.496.020.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-44.145.25.0

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -565,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -503,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.684.17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.666.910.9
– Net Position:-565,456694,381-128,925
– Gross Longs:227,4253,395,892312,291
– Gross Shorts:792,8812,701,511441,216
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.945.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-46.535.73.8

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -440,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -58,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -381,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.879.59.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.263.812.7
– Net Position:-440,103558,958-118,855
– Gross Longs:241,8722,829,749334,948
– Gross Shorts:681,9752,270,791453,803
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.588.351.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.445.9-13.0

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.280.110.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.570.518.2
– Net Position:-17,986124,783-106,797
– Gross Longs:66,8301,039,205129,753
– Gross Shorts:84,816914,422236,550
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.172.356.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-6.34.5

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.473.314.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.970.011.8
– Net Position:-68,83440,78928,045
– Gross Longs:78,532903,487173,323
– Gross Shorts:147,366862,698145,278
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.225.274.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.76.37.1

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -355,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.681.710.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.358.48.5
– Net Position:-355,794323,16432,630
– Gross Longs:77,8991,132,704150,042
– Gross Shorts:433,693809,540117,412
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.173.151.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.17.6-3.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Corn, Coffee and Cocoa lead the COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets higher this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Soft Commodities Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Corn, Coffee and Cocoa lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Higher

COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (20,154 contracts) and Coffee (10,054 contracts) with Cocoa (9,461 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,381 contracts), Sugar (4,464 contracts) and Cotton (282 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Lean Hogs (-8,204 contracts) with Soybeans (-4,274 contracts), Wheat (-3,243 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,346 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,365 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Speculator Net Position Changes


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,470,2070229,1895-256,2489527,05948
Gold459,1652117,73410-129,6799211,9452
Silver138,7146-8,27102651008,0068
Copper158,3900-23,2551924,98583-1,73015
Palladium5,8750-1,129161,32382-19433
Platinum70,74740-5,3781646994,73228
Natural Gas978,8814-128,7654092,4636036,30266
Brent180,95224-40,0134436,585543,42856
Heating Oil283,4272925,19679-43,7612518,56563
Soybeans605,924783,56240-52,79168-30,77119
Corn1,267,7350283,39766-225,75940-57,63810
Coffee193,889748,68781-50,983232,29621
Sugar752,642962,55149-72,5935410,04220
Wheat288,5450-11,499414,91481-3,41593

 


Soybean Meal and Coffee leads this week’s Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92.2 percent) and Coffee (80.9 percent) lead the soft commodity markets and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Corn (66.2 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme state (below 20 percent). Cocoa (25.8 percent) comes in as the next lowest followed by Soybeans (39.6 percent) and Soybean Oil (40.0 percent).

Soft Commodities Speculator Strength Scores
Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.7 percent)
Sugar (49.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (48.6 percent)
Coffee (80.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.9 percent)
Live Cattle (54.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (62.7 percent)
Cotton (52.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (52.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.5 percent)
Wheat (4.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.3 percent)

Live Cattle leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (47.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (18.3 percent), Coffee (17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Sugar (-13.3 percent) followed by Soybeans (-5.8 percent).

Soft Commodities Strength Score Trends (6 Week)
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.1 percent)
Sugar (-13.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.8 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (-5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (11.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (9.6 percent)
Live Cattle (47.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (50.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (28.7 percent)
Cotton (9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.0 percent)
Wheat (-23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 283,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 263,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.747.09.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.464.813.6
– Net Position:283,397-225,759-57,638
– Gross Longs:402,312595,440115,050
– Gross Shorts:118,915821,199172,688
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.239.79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.4-8.6-7.6

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.353.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.063.17.5
– Net Position:62,551-72,59310,042
– Gross Longs:175,450402,66466,576
– Gross Shorts:112,899475,25756,534
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.554.420.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.313.1-5.7

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.745.04.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.671.33.7
– Net Position:48,687-50,9832,296
– Gross Longs:61,41687,1949,555
– Gross Shorts:12,729138,1777,259
– Long to Short Ratio:4.8 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.923.020.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-20.820.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 83,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.755.36.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.964.011.3
– Net Position:83,562-52,791-30,771
– Gross Longs:155,472335,04837,513
– Gross Shorts:71,910387,83968,284
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.667.819.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.86.5-4.4

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.251.77.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.467.85.4
– Net Position:53,958-62,7118,753
– Gross Longs:83,033202,09529,895
– Gross Shorts:29,075264,80621,142
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.060.846.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.3-20.221.0

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.443.012.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:2.778.36.4
– Net Position:116,189-137,83521,646
– Gross Longs:126,866168,31646,829
– Gross Shorts:10,677306,15125,183
– Long to Short Ratio:11.9 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.211.345.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.6-9.110.4

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.132.911.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.253.112.0
– Net Position:59,731-57,725-2,006
– Gross Longs:108,97693,97432,255
– Gross Shorts:49,245151,69934,261
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.334.277.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:47.4-48.2-9.3

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.036.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.252.312.5
– Net Position:43,199-35,424-7,775
– Gross Longs:84,94478,50519,440
– Gross Shorts:41,745113,92927,215
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.851.656.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-16.20.9

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.043.77.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.671.83.4
– Net Position:51,767-59,7617,994
– Gross Longs:78,59992,71715,280
– Gross Shorts:26,832152,4787,286
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.746.562.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-12.133.1

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.445.44.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.649.93.2
– Net Position:8,311-12,9684,657
– Gross Longs:96,892131,59613,945
– Gross Shorts:88,581144,5649,288
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.873.343.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-11.630.4

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.941.510.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.936.311.4
– Net Position:-11,49914,914-3,415
– Gross Longs:89,300119,73329,557
– Gross Shorts:100,799104,81932,972
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.180.992.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.516.732.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

WTI Crude, Brent Oil and Gasoline lead COT Energy Speculators bets lower

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Energy Futures Open Interest Comparison(1)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil, Brent and Gasoline lead Weekly Speculator Changes lower

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,373 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (98 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-17,031 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-3,589 contracts), Gasoline (-3,088 contracts) and Natural Gas (-155 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Energy Futures Speculator Net Position Changes


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,470,2070229,1895-256,2489527,05948
Gold459,1652117,73410-129,6799211,9452
Silver138,7146-8,27102651008,0068
Copper158,3900-23,2551924,98583-1,73015
Palladium5,8750-1,129161,32382-19433
Platinum70,74740-5,3781646994,73228
Natural Gas978,8814-128,7654092,4636036,30266
Brent180,95224-40,0134436,585543,42856
Heating Oil283,4272925,19679-43,7612518,56563
Soybeans605,924783,56240-52,79168-30,77119
Corn1,267,7350283,39766-225,75940-57,63810
Coffee193,889748,68781-50,983232,29621
Sugar752,642962,55149-72,5935410,04220
Wheat288,5450-11,499414,91481-3,41593

 


Heating Oil leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (79.5 percent) leads the energy markets and is just under the bullish extreme position threshold (above 80 percent). The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.4 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent). The next lowest is Gasoline (21.7 percent) followed by Natural Gas (39.9 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (44.0 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (44.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (39.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.0 percent)
Gasoline (21.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (24.8 percent)
Heating Oil (79.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.0 percent)

Heating Oil also leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (23.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Gasoline (9.9 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (6.0 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (2.2 percent) round out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude Oil (-11.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-2.5 percent).

 

Energy Futures Speculator Strength Score Trends (6-Weeks)(1)
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (2.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (3.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-2.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.9 percent)
Gasoline (9.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (20.1 percent)
Heating Oil (23.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (6.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-7.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 229,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.640.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.057.53.4
– Net Position:229,189-256,24827,059
– Gross Longs:332,415588,60177,360
– Gross Shorts:103,226844,84950,301
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.995.148.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.110.16.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.051.85.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.131.63.2
– Net Position:-40,01336,5853,428
– Gross Longs:32,55693,6809,137
– Gross Shorts:72,56957,0955,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.054.155.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-7.140.2

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -128,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.342.06.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.432.53.0
– Net Position:-128,76592,46336,302
– Gross Longs:168,924410,93065,677
– Gross Shorts:297,689318,46729,375
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.960.066.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.51.86.3

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.947.37.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.368.45.8
– Net Position:49,702-53,4383,736
– Gross Longs:80,794119,87518,480
– Gross Shorts:31,092173,31314,744
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.780.137.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-7.6-13.0

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.351.514.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.566.98.0
– Net Position:25,196-43,76118,565
– Gross Longs:49,157145,89341,370
– Gross Shorts:23,961189,65422,805
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.524.762.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.5-21.313.9

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 98 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.774.30.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.556.00.1
– Net Position:-12,56712,243324
– Gross Longs:15,86849,746419
– Gross Shorts:28,43537,50395
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 14.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.440.422.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-6.44.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Stock Market Speculator bets gain led by S&P500 Mini, VIX & EAFE Mini

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

COT Stock Futures Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

S&P500 Mini, VIX & EAFE Mini lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was S&P500 Mini (22,644 contracts) with the VIX (8,410 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (7,680 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (3,774 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (3,174 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Nasdaq Mini (-11,226 contracts) with Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts), also registering lower bets on the week.

Stocks Futures Speculator Net Position Changes


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,329,9539-239,63212311,81594-72,18311
Nikkei 22514,15110-4,641552,949441,69250
Nasdaq-Mini263,6415026,80790-2,85025-23,9570
DowJones-Mini77,43038-1,420363,02763-1,60730
VIX338,59038-97,93560101,48539-3,55074
Nikkei 225 Yen56,93339-3193319,46278-19,14335

 


Nasdaq-Mini leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (90.0 percent) leads the stocks markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini strength score is down from last week’s 96.3 percent but remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (60.2 percent) comes in as the next highest stock market in strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (11.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Russell2000-Mini (16.2 percent) with both markets residing in a bearish extreme level currently (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (56.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (36.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (96.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (16.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (14.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)

Dow Jones-Mini leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (19.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The EAFE-Mini (13.0 percent) and the Russell 2000-Mini (5.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-14.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-5.8 percent).

 


——————–
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-20.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-5.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (19.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (20.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (10.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (12.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -97,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.859.67.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.729.68.4
– Net Position:-97,935101,485-3,550
– Gross Longs:46,792201,68124,889
– Gross Shorts:144,727100,19628,439
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.238.574.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.012.412.7

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -239,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -262,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.377.39.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.663.912.8
– Net Position:-239,632311,815-72,183
– Gross Longs:240,6531,800,768224,954
– Gross Shorts:480,2851,488,953297,137
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.894.111.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.86.3-2.9

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.549.115.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.345.217.1
– Net Position:-1,4203,027-1,607
– Gross Longs:26,72438,00511,643
– Gross Shorts:28,14434,97813,250
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.463.129.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.2-24.118.9

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.456.312.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.257.421.2
– Net Position:26,807-2,850-23,957
– Gross Longs:77,379148,38532,035
– Gross Shorts:50,572151,23555,992
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.024.80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.710.3-31.5

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.586.84.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.969.24.4
– Net Position:-91,14992,282-1,133
– Gross Longs:39,315455,29622,023
– Gross Shorts:130,464363,01423,156
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.283.523.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-7.112.4

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.253.334.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.032.522.3
– Net Position:-4,6412,9491,692
– Gross Longs:1,7297,5484,844
– Gross Shorts:6,3704,5993,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.444.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.8-1.337.0

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.991.52.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.488.61.5
– Net Position:-13,86411,4452,419
– Gross Longs:23,657366,9258,362
– Gross Shorts:37,521355,4805,943
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.475.940.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-11.6-8.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Forex Speculators boost Canadian Dollar bets to 58-week high while Euro bets drop to 128-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: CAD bets up, Euro bets down

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator positions.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (6,250 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (5,644 contracts), Brazilian real (4,790 contracts), Swiss franc (4,686 contracts), New Zealand dollar (2,045 contracts), British pound sterling (1,359 contracts) and Bitcoin (137 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-8,248 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-3,859 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,660 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-676 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the Canadian dollar‘s recent gains in the speculator positions. The CAD positions rose this week and have now gained for five straight weeks and in ten out of the past thirteen weeks for a total 13-week gain of +41,363 contracts. The speculative position had fallen into bearish territory from April 26th to June 7th before getting a large sentiment boost by +24,264 contracts on June 14th that flipped the position from bearish to bullish. Since then, the bullish position has steadily increased and this week, reached the most bullish level since July 6th of 2021, a span of fifty-eight weeks.

Euro speculative bets this week, meanwhile, fell for the first time in the past four weeks but made a new low for this recent bearish cycle. Euro bets dropped by over -8,000 contracts this week and have now been in an overall bearish position for the past ten weeks. The decline of bets this week brought the current speculator standing to the most bearish level since March 3rd of 2020, a span of one hundred and twenty-eight weeks. The EURUSD currency pair fell rather sharply to end the week (weekly decline by over -2.00 percent) and closed just a hair above parity at the 1.0041 exchange rate. The EURUSD dropped below parity for a quick time on July 14th with a low of 0.9952 (20-year lows) before staging a rally back over 1.0350 in the following weeks but with deteriorating speculator sentiment, it seems possible the pair will be testing below parity again.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index58,9098637,96188-40,673112,71246
EUR698,57081-42,7842220,9168221,86811
GBP227,75262-33,1094647,21759-14,10826
JPY228,69774-28,8915141,97956-13,08827
CHF39,40720-5,0964413,61665-8,52029
CAD147,5962926,86770-32,129425,26241
AUD160,04552-59,2483063,47066-4,22242
NZD41,729281,7697419531-1,96429
MXN201,61850-21,3711817,803803,56858
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL38,079246,52357-8,659432,13690
Bitcoin12,42369-9379-260035321

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) remains at the highest levels for the currency markets and continues in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (78.6 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) round out the next highest strength scores in the currency markets. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The next currencies at the lower range of strength scores are the EuroFX at 21.9 percent and the Australian Dollar at 29.9 percent.

 


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (89.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (24.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (51.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (43.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (63.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.6 percent)
Brazil Real (56.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent), the Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) fill out the other highest movers in the latest trends data. The Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Brazilian Real (-9.6 percent) followed by Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) and the EuroFX (-8.0 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.7 percent)
EuroFX (-8.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (12.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brazil Real (-9.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-23.9 percent)


Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:86.23.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.872.63.6
– Net Position:37,961-40,6732,712
– Gross Longs:50,7822,0784,843
– Gross Shorts:12,82142,7512,131
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.0 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.211.246.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.21.35.0

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.557.311.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.654.38.3
– Net Position:-42,78420,91621,868
– Gross Longs:199,226400,45879,589
– Gross Shorts:242,010379,54257,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.982.010.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.08.4-6.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.468.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.947.814.9
– Net Position:-33,10947,217-14,108
– Gross Longs:44,084156,16719,890
– Gross Shorts:77,193108,95033,998
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.158.726.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.0-17.913.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.466.69.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.148.215.1
– Net Position:-28,89141,979-13,088
– Gross Longs:51,308152,20921,465
– Gross Shorts:80,199110,23034,553
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.156.126.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-10.8-7.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.755.224.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.720.746.5
– Net Position:-5,09613,616-8,520
– Gross Longs:7,77321,7679,809
– Gross Shorts:12,8698,15118,329
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.665.228.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.8-10.34.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.139.622.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.961.418.9
– Net Position:26,867-32,1295,262
– Gross Longs:51,84358,47633,129
– Gross Shorts:24,97690,60527,867
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.542.040.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.3-23.010.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.069.310.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.029.613.0
– Net Position:-59,24863,470-4,222
– Gross Longs:28,835110,91816,660
– Gross Shorts:88,08347,44820,882
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.966.242.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.85.89.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.149.65.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.949.110.6
– Net Position:1,769195-1,964
– Gross Longs:18,41220,6882,458
– Gross Shorts:16,64320,4934,422
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.230.729.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-15.917.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.942.73.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.533.81.6
– Net Position:-21,37117,8033,568
– Gross Longs:108,64285,9976,782
– Gross Shorts:130,01368,1943,214
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.280.258.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.03.2-3.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.722.79.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.545.44.1
– Net Position:6,523-8,6592,136
– Gross Longs:25,7628,6373,679
– Gross Shorts:19,23917,2961,543
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.842.889.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.68.512.5

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.72.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.54.16.8
– Net Position:-93-260353
– Gross Longs:9,2842501,202
– Gross Shorts:9,377510849
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.642.621.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.311.77.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets higher for 3rd week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: Platinum bullish bets rise

COT precious metals speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (2,094 contracts) with Silver (629 contracts), Palladium (371 contracts) and Copper (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-1,687 contracts) on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is that Platinum speculator bets that have bounced back a bit over the past three weeks after a recent down-streak that put the position in negative territory. The Platinum large speculator positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fourth time over the past five weeks. This recent uptick has pulled the overall position out of a bearish level that had held from June 28th to August 2nd. This week, the current position increased into a small bullish level of +2,940 contracts. The Platinum futures price, meanwhile, took a step back this week with a loss. The futures had previously seen four straight weekly gains before closing the week below the $900.00 level.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 


Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper is the highest metals market currently at just 22.0 percent of its 3-year range. The rest of the metals markets are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent) and have been for a while now. Gold (18.6 percent), Palladium (13.8 percent), Platinum (12.0 percent) and Silver (9.7 percent) round out the rest of the metals market in strength scores.

 


Strength Statistics:
Gold (18.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (22.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.2 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (7.7 percent) and Copper (2.6 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-2.0 percent) and Gold (-1.7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently but have both improved since last week.

 


Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-5.7 percent)
Silver (-2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (7.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.4 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.527.08.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.460.95.6
– Net Position:141,164-153,70912,545
– Gross Longs:238,196122,56637,826
– Gross Shorts:97,032276,27525,281
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.683.73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.74.3-20.2

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.241.416.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.750.09.9
– Net Position:3,508-12,4518,943
– Gross Longs:47,85159,75323,230
– Gross Shorts:44,34372,20414,287
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.790.012.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.0-0.812.0

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.546.47.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.930.78.1
– Net Position:-28,22028,932-712
– Gross Longs:46,79785,18714,097
– Gross Shorts:75,01756,25514,809
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.079.321.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-1.7-6.8

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.839.711.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.750.85.3
– Net Position:2,940-6,3613,421
– Gross Longs:26,21822,7496,467
– Gross Shorts:23,27829,1103,046
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.090.29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-6.1-13.7

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.654.915.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.735.614.3
– Net Position:-1,5991,53663
– Gross Longs:1,4794,3631,202
– Gross Shorts:3,0782,8271,139
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.883.447.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-14.343.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Large Bond Speculators drop 5-Year Bonds bets lower for 4th Week to 24-Week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: 5-Year Bonds bets hit 24-week low

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed on the week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds Futures (87,697 contracts) with the Eurodollar (16,102 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (14,667 contracts) and the Long US Bond (261 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-116,372 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-76,650 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-41,827 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,607 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures saw their speculator bets drop sharply again this week. The 5-Year fell for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks for an eight-week total decline by -363,294 contracts. This recent weakness has pushed the overall speculator standing to the lowest level since March 1st, a span of twenty-four weeks. Overall, the 5-Year market is now very close to the bottom of it’s 3-year speculator sentiment range (1.2 percent strength score on a scale of 0-100) and has seen that strength score fall by -37.4 percent over the past six weeks (6-week trend score).

The 5-Year Bond price has continued in a downtrend and it’s yield closed the week (yields rise when bond prices fall) higher around 3.09 percent. Currently, the 5-Year yield (3.09%) is inverted with the 10-Year yield (2.97%), meaning that the shorter bond pays more yield than the longer bond and overall, an unusual occurrence.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,585,91115-2,869,87703,208,50398-338,62630
FedFunds1,665,3655488,65851-93,150494,49271
2-Year2,124,68815-214,04839249,55374-35,50534
Long T-Bond1,167,91539-47,3256921,2071826,11873
10-Year3,520,46831-363,12817470,73278-107,60454
5-Year4,066,73055-467,3751621,46889-154,09339

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) continues to generate the highest spec strength score for bonds and just a edge up from last week’s score of 69.1 percent. The Fed Funds (50.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above its 3-year midpoint of 50 percent. On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.3 percent), the 5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (39.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (47.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.8 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed  that all of the bonds markets this week had negative trend scores. The Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) had the least negative trend score followed by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent). The most negative downside trend scores were led by the 5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) followed by the 10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent), the 2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent).

 

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Eurodollar (-9.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-13.4 percent)


Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,869,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,885,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.571.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.437.88.1
– Net Position:-2,869,8773,208,503-338,626
– Gross Longs:429,0276,835,497434,367
– Gross Shorts:3,298,9043,626,994772,993
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.398.429.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.3-13.0

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 88,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 87,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.671.02.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.376.62.3
– Net Position:88,658-93,1504,492
– Gross Longs:243,2641,183,00743,138
– Gross Shorts:154,6061,276,15738,646
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.648.671.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.9-0.630.8

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -214,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.580.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.669.29.1
– Net Position:-214,048249,553-35,505
– Gross Longs:180,8581,718,780158,017
– Gross Shorts:394,9061,469,227193,522
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.074.433.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.617.120.4

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -467,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -116,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -351,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.583.77.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.068.411.2
– Net Position:-467,375621,468-154,093
– Gross Longs:265,7413,402,691299,503
– Gross Shorts:733,1162,781,223453,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.289.038.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.426.4-1.0

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -363,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -76,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -286,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.081.59.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.368.212.5
– Net Position:-363,128470,732-107,604
– Gross Longs:209,8212,870,103332,003
– Gross Shorts:572,9492,399,371439,607
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.277.854.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.319.86.0

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.684.710.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.271.320.7
– Net Position:-32,000160,566-128,566
– Gross Longs:54,9651,016,979120,448
– Gross Shorts:86,965856,413249,014
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.581.541.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.43.7-3.3

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.676.814.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.774.912.2
– Net Position:-47,32521,20726,118
– Gross Longs:88,791896,481168,447
– Gross Shorts:136,116875,274142,329
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.218.273.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.4-0.316.2

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -374,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.082.511.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.357.98.3
– Net Position:-374,923337,61437,309
– Gross Longs:55,0631,133,222150,925
– Gross Shorts:429,986795,608113,616
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.380.255.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.025.33.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

See CFTC criteria here.

Sugar, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodity Speculator bets higher

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as nine out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (23,905 contracts) with Live Cattle (12,806 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,956 contracts), Corn (9,343 contracts), Cotton (7,985 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,809 contracts), Coffee (3,018 contracts), Cocoa (2,784 contracts) and Wheat (1,518 contracts) also having higher weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-5,718 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores with Coffee (67.8 percent), Corn (58.2 percent) and Live Cattle (56.3 percent) following. On the downside, Cocoa (14.9 percent) and Wheat (16.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
Corn (58.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (57.0 percent)
Sugar (46.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (42.0 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (39.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (89.9 percent)
Live Cattle (56.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.4 percent)
Cotton (50.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (45.7 percent)
Cocoa (14.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (16.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (51.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (9.0 percent), Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) and Cocoa (4.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Wheat (-13.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-12.9 percent) followed by Coffee (-11.5 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (-12.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.2 percent)
Live Cattle (51.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.9 percent)
Cotton (-4.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.9 percent)
Cocoa (4.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-11.7 percent)
Wheat (-13.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 220,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.948.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.261.413.2
– Net Position:220,129-166,318-53,811
– Gross Longs:367,371642,350120,568
– Gross Shorts:147,242808,668174,379
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.248.212.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.25.9-0.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 49,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.253.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.562.27.7
– Net Position:49,970-61,83711,867
– Gross Longs:171,404396,58868,600
– Gross Shorts:121,434458,42556,733
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.956.422.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.94.412.5

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.752.15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.170.64.0
– Net Position:33,471-35,3181,847
– Gross Longs:45,06299,0689,438
– Gross Shorts:11,591134,3867,591
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.837.216.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.512.5-4.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.355.06.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.363.611.3
– Net Position:83,183-51,650-31,533
– Gross Longs:144,698327,09835,752
– Gross Shorts:61,515378,74867,285
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.568.117.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.912.50.5

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.554.97.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.266.55.7
– Net Position:40,963-46,7585,795
– Gross Longs:74,046220,23428,767
– Gross Shorts:33,083266,99222,972
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.170.835.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-5.16.9

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.839.711.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.772.56.0
– Net Position:112,163-135,85923,696
– Gross Longs:127,369164,27748,624
– Gross Shorts:15,206300,13624,928
– Long to Short Ratio:8.4 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.912.355.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-12.035.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.434.811.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.157.012.4
– Net Position:61,388-58,750-2,638
– Gross Longs:106,71391,93230,154
– Gross Shorts:45,325150,68232,792
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.332.872.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:51.8-52.3-11.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.431.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.312.9
– Net Position:58,006-49,401-8,605
– Gross Longs:102,20176,59222,371
– Gross Shorts:44,195125,99330,976
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.935.151.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-51.12.1

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.845.07.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.870.94.1
– Net Position:44,208-50,0785,870
– Gross Longs:68,97986,76713,871
– Gross Shorts:24,771136,8458,001
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.849.448.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.02.711.9

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.048.94.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.948.83.6
– Net Position:-2,7781802,598
– Gross Longs:89,997146,70413,549
– Gross Shorts:92,775146,52410,951
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.986.122.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-5.07.7

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.540.29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.137.811.7
– Net Position:-1,9087,448-5,540
– Gross Longs:95,452126,00731,104
– Gross Shorts:97,360118,55936,644
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.670.381.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.49.718.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.