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Currency Speculators go bearish on Euro, raise US Dollar Index bets for 17th week

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This week’s data showed 7 out of 8 major currency levels are bearish

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bets for the US dollar Index this week while dragging euro bets into a new bearish standing.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, bet in favor of the US Dollar Index (1,931 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (4,439 contracts), Swiss franc (259 contracts) and the Australian dollar (2,757 contracts), according to the data reported through Tuesday August 14th.

On the down side, the currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-12,354 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-1,889 contracts), Canadian dollar (-1,300 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,166 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-2,186 contracts).

Overall, with the euro now dipping into bearish territory, the number of individual currencies that are in a bearish standing has increased to seven out of the eight that we currently track. The only one still with an overall bullish standing is the Mexican peso.


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -10,307 15,787 -1,789 -12,354
GBP 84,554 8,315 -60,741 -1,889
JPY 80,210 -6,148 -58,368 4,439
CHF 65,775 -333 -45,849 259
CAD 31,283 1,555 -26,198 -1,300
AUD 75,774 -843 -51,783 2,757
NZD 30,586 1,938 -26,693 -2,166
MXN -35,256 748 31,074 -2,186

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


US Dollar Index bullish bets keep rising

Large speculators continued to raise their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets again this week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 32,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly advance of 1,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,102 net contracts.

Bets for the US dollar index have now improved for seventeen straight weeks to the highest bullish level since May 16th of 2017 when the net positions totaled 34,275 contracts.


Elsewhere, we only saw one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contract levels for the speculators category.

  • Euro contracts decreased by over -12,000 contracts for a second straight week as the overall position fell into a bearish spec positioning for the first time since May 2nd 2017. The euro bets have now declined for three straight weeks and contracts have gone from +88,225 contracts to -1,789 contracts in just the last ten weeks.

Other Notables:

  • New Zealand dollar bearish bets rose for a second straight week and to the most bearish level on record, according to our data dating back to 1999
  • British pound sterling bets fell for a fourth straight week and to the most bearish level since May 2nd 2017 when the standing was -81,364 contracts
  • Japanese yen bets have improved for three weeks and are now at the least bearish position of the past five weeks

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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WTI Crude Oil Speculators reduced their bullish bets for 2nd week

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 573,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly lowering of -35,499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 608,927 net contracts.

Speculative bullish positions have fallen for two weeks in a row as well as for five out of the past six weeks. The overall net bullish position has now dipped below the +600,000 contract threshold for the first time in eight weeks dating back to the middle of June.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -618,747 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 33,601 contracts from the total net of -652,348 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $13.99 which was a decrease of $-0.37 from the previous close of $14.36, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculator bets surged to new record high bearish position

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large treasury bond speculators sharply boosted their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -698,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly fall of -111,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -586,299 net contracts.

Speculative bearish bets surged this week by the largest weekly amount (-111,895 contracts) of the past six weeks as bearish bets have now increased for four out of the last five weeks.

The overall net standing is at the highest bearish level on record and went past the -600,000 contract threshold for the first time. The bearish speculators had previously reached the last record high just two weeks ago.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

Meanwhile, the commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 843,257 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 69,229 contracts from the total net of 774,028 contracts reported the previous week.

This week’s commercial trader position also reached a new record high but on the bullish side of things this week above the +800,000 net contract level. The previous record high was registered two weeks ago.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $102.24 which was an uptick of $0.68 from the previous close of $101.56, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators trimmed their bearish net positions this week

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly lift of 79 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,611 net contracts.

Speculative bearish contracts have now fallen under the -1,600 net contracts for the first time in five weeks.

Small traders, meanwhile, trimmed their existing bullish positions lower this week by an equally offsetting -79 contracts to the current bullish level of 1,532 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its thirty-fifth week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators have been on the bearish side of this market since the start of the bitcoin data releases while the small traders remain on the bullish side of this market.

Bitcoin per USD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Futures closed at approximately $6116.21 which was a loss of $-622.33 from the previous close of $6738.54, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators net positions go bearish for 1st time since 2002

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators continued to sharply cut back on their net positions in the Gold futures markets again this week to a new bearish level, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,688 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly decline of -16,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,688 net contracts.

Gold speculator bets have declined for five consecutive weeks and by a total of -85,122 contracts over that time-frame. The spec position is now in an overall bearish standing for the first time since August 13th of 2002 which is almost sixteen years ago to the day. This recent decline has happened very rapidly as just ten weeks ago the speculative position stood at +120,240 net contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -7,350 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 18,259 contracts from the total net of -25,609 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $113.07 which was a shortfall of $-1.52 from the previous close of $114.59, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators bullish bets bounced back this week

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 179,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly boost of 14,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,239 net contracts.

The speculative contracts had fallen for the previous three weeks before this week’s rebound. The overall speculative standing remains very bullish and is back over the +170,000 net contract level for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -302,680 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -25,976 contracts from the total net of -276,704 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $283.90 which was a fall of $-1.68 from the previous close of $285.58, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Eurodollar Speculators reduced their bearish net positions for 5th week

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Eurodollar Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large interest rate speculators continued to decrease their bearish net positions in the Eurodollar futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Eurodollar futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -2,906,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly lift of 179,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,085,784 net contracts.

The speculative positioning has seen bearish contracts decline for five consecutive weeks and for eight out of the past ten weeks. The overall net speculator position remains strongly bearish but has now fallen below the -3,000,000 net contract level for the first time since June 26th.

Eurodollar Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 3,550,266 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -229,773 contracts from the total net of 3,780,039 contracts reported the previous week.

ED Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Eurodollar Futures closed at approximately $97.01 which was a rise of $0.07 from the previous close of $96.94, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators push bearish bets to highest since November 2017

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators continued to boost their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -131,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly decrease of -17,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,789 net contracts.

The speculative position has seen bearish bets rise for six straight weeks and by a total of -98,242 contracts over that time-frame. The overall bearish standing is now at the highest level since November 7th of 2017 when the net position stood at -153,309 contracts.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 136,123 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 15,738 contracts from the total net of 120,385 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately $13.31 which was an uptick of $2.38 from the previous close of $10.93, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators dropped their net positions into new bearish level

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators cut back on their net positions in the Silver futures markets this week and pushed bets into a new bearish standing, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -2,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly reduction of -7,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,341 net contracts.

Speculative positions have declined for two straight weeks and for eight out of the past nine weeks. The overall position is back in bearish territory for the first time in fourteen weeks (since -121 contracts on May 8th).

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -12,376 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 9,742 contracts from the total net of -22,118 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $14.17 which was a shortfall of $-0.26 from the previous close of $14.43, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators edged their bullish bets slightly higher this week

August 18, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators slightly increased their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 3,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 14th. This was a weekly advance of 898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,190 net contracts.

The speculative bullish position had fallen for two straight weeks and for seven out of the previous eight weeks before this week’s small turnaround. The overall bullish standing has now remained under the +10,000 net contract level for the past five weeks.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -6,064 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -608 contracts from the total net of -5,456 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $268.2 which was a drop of $-7.0 from the previous close of $275.2, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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