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Copper Speculators added to their bullish bets for 6th straight week

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Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets once again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 67,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 22nd. This was a weekly gain of 9,234 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,607 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 13,256 contracts (to a weekly total of 123,585 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by a lesser amount of 4,022 contracts for the week (to a total of 55,744 contracts).

The copper speculative positions continued their rise higher for the sixth straight week and for the twelfth time in the past fourteen weeks. The overall copper position has risen by a total of +34,208 contracts in just these past six weeks and has ascended to the most bullish standing since June 12th of 2018, a span of 119 weeks.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -68,912 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -6,574 contracts from the total net of -62,338 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $3.059 which was a decline of $-0.004 from the previous close of $3.063, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators sharply pared their bullish bets this week

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Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 219,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 22nd. This was a weekly decrease of -21,917 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 240,977 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sliding by -15,497 contracts (to a weekly total of 309,015 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 6,420 contracts for the week (to a total of 89,955 contracts).

Gold speculative positions fell sharply this week following three straight weeks of increases. The decline by over -21,000 contracts marks the largest one-week fall of the past eight weeks while the overall net standing dropped to the lowest level since June 9th, a span of 15 weeks. Despite the recent weakness, the gold position still remains bullish and above the +200,000 net contract level for the sixty-seventh consecutive week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -266,408 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 18,778 contracts from the total net of -285,186 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1899.30 which was a drop of $-58.70 from the previous close of $1958.00, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Treasury Note Speculators boosted their bullish bets for a 3rd week

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 82,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 22nd. This was a weekly gain of 67,403 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,777 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 13,971 contracts (to a weekly total of 639,685 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -53,432 contracts for the week (to a total of 557,505 contracts).

The 10-Year speculative positions rose again for the third consecutive week. The gain by over +67,000 contracts this week marks the largest one-week rise in the past five weeks while the overall net standing rose to the highest level since August 18th. Speculator sentiment has been largely positive on the 10-year as the net position has now been bullish in fourteen out of the past sixteen weeks dating back to June 9th. Previously, the speculator position has remained bearish for 129 straight weeks from December 19th of 2017 all the way to June 2nd of this year.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -140,594 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -81,238 contracts from the total net of -59,356 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $139.62 which was a fall of $-0.046 from the previous close of $139.67, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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WTI Crude Oil Speculators pushed their bullish bets higher for a 2nd week

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WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators raised their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 472,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 22nd. This was a weekly gain of 23,025 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 449,744 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sliding by -1,159 contracts (to a weekly total of 647,934 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -24,184 contracts for the week (to a total of 175,165 contracts).

The Crude Oil speculative net positions rose this week for the second consecutive week and increased by the largest-one week gain of the past sixteen weeks. Net positions have bounced back over the past two weeks after previously declining for five straight weeks that had trimmed the bullish position by a total of -86,900 contracts. Despite this week’s rise, the overall bullish standing remains under the +500,000 net contract level for the fourth straight week.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -492,699 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -17,852 contracts from the total net of -474,847 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $39.60 which was a boost of $1.32 from the previous close of $38.28, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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US Dollar Index Speculators raised bearish bets for 2nd week. Euro bullish bets rebound

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US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators increased their bearish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -9,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 22nd. This was a weekly lowering of -906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,240 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -1,424 contracts (to a weekly total of 11,932 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a smaller fall by -518 contracts on the week (to a total of 21,078 contracts).

The US Dollar Index net bearish positions rose this week for the second consecutive week. This weak sentiment has pushed the current speculator standing to the most bearish level since turning bearish in June as well as the most bearish level dating all the way back to November 28th of 2017, a span of 147 weeks. Despite the sentiment weakness, the US Dollar Index price jumped this week with a rise from approximately 93.02 to end the week above 94.50.


Individual Currencies Data this week: Euro bullish bets bounce back

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Euro speculator positions rebounded this week after a sharp fall over the previous three weeks. Euro speculator positions have been on a spectacular run in recent months as bullish bets have risen in 23 out of the past 30 weeks and by a total of +304,843 contracts in that time-frame. This positive sentiment led to a record high bullish standing on August 25th at a total of +211,752 contracts and this week’s bullish position (+190,822 contracts) is not too far off that record high. The EURUSD currency pair, meanwhile, had been on the rise in tandem with spec bullish bets but fell sharply this week and dropped by over 200 pips to close the week just below the 1.1650 exchange rate.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the  euro (12,246 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (671 contracts), Japanese yen (6,692 contracts), Swiss franc (3,850 contracts), Australian dollar (120 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,618 contracts) and the Mexican peso (179 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-906 weekly change in contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-1,939 contracts).


Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Currency Net Speculator Position Specs Weekly Change
USD Index -9,146 -906
EuroFx 190,822 12,246
GBP 2,964 671
JPY 29,581 6,692
CHF 15,916 3,850
CAD -18,882 -1,939
AUD 16,339 120
NZD 4,860 1,618
MXN 26,650 179

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 190,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,576 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level was a net position of 2,964 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly increase of 671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,293 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators came in at a net position of 29,581 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly advance of 6,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,889 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,916 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of -18,882 contracts this week. This was a decrease of -1,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,943 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of 16,339 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,219 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of 4,860 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly rise of 1,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,242 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of 26,650 contracts this week. This was a weekly gain of 179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,471 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).