Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 2

06 Apr

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (8,244 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,767 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,662 contracts) and Bitcoin (1,235 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-14,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-14,124 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-11,948 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,504 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,267 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-933 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-402 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline in the speculator’s positioning for the Swiss franc. Large speculative Swiss franc (CHF) currency positions fell this week by a modest -402 net contracts but have now dropped for a ninth consecutive week. The speculator bets have also fallen for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks as well – for a total 11-week decrease of -18,632 contracts.

This rapid decline in sentiment has taken the CHF speculative position to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and fifty-one weeks, dating all the way back to June 11th of 2019 when the net position totaled -24,788 contracts.

Helping to dent the Swiss franc’s appeal was a recent surprise interest rate cut by the the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in late March. This rate reduction took the interest rate down by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent and marked the SNB as the first major central bank to start a rate cutting cycle after global inflation pushed most central banks to raise rates in the past two years. As a major export country, the interest rate decrease and a falling franc is desirable for Switzerland businesses which will help exports become more competitive.

The CHF exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline after a strong uptrend from the 4th quarter of 2022 to late-2023 that saw the franc reach the highest exchange rate since 2015 at 1.2099 (CHF futures or CHFUSD). Since that high-point in December, the franc has been on the downtrend and closed out this week at the 1.1172 exchange rate to the Dollar and about 8 percent off that December high.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (1 percent), the Australian Dollar (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.5 percent)
EuroFX (27.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (33.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (82.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.8 percent)
Bitcoin (68.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (50.2 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (34 percent) and the Mexican Peso (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-40 percent), Swiss Franc (-35 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.6 percent)
EuroFX (-21.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-18.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-34.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-44.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-37.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-18.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-23.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-40.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (19.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-25.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.8 percent)
Bitcoin (34.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.122.212.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.123.06.7
– Net Position:-1,896-3052,201
– Gross Longs:23,6818,4464,744
– Gross Shorts:25,5778,7512,543
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.9100.036.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.35.97.2

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.660.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.165.38.3
– Net Position:16,794-33,43216,638
– Gross Longs:188,258412,48073,567
– Gross Shorts:171,464445,91256,929
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.576.75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.821.0-7.7

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.941.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.159.113.3
– Net Position:43,414-39,400-4,014
– Gross Longs:98,35290,14625,106
– Gross Shorts:54,938129,54629,120
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.123.650.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.95.4-13.2

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -143,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.464.815.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.620.714.8
– Net Position:-143,230139,4943,736
– Gross Longs:55,190205,19550,476
– Gross Shorts:198,42065,70146,740
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.094.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.211.127.7

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.464.511.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.020.029.8
– Net Position:-22,37038,683-16,313
– Gross Longs:21,22056,1449,682
– Gross Shorts:43,59017,46125,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 13.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.740.8-30.7

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.461.014.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.434.414.7
– Net Position:-51,22352,481-1,258
– Gross Longs:44,220120,30727,748
– Gross Shorts:95,44367,82629,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.184.320.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.331.9-1.7

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.473.39.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.022.514.1
– Net Position:-102,685114,086-11,401
– Gross Longs:34,557164,79020,421
– Gross Shorts:137,24250,70431,822
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.497.525.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.715.5-1.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,024 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.062.25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.144.910.6
– Net Position:-7,52810,695-3,167
– Gross Longs:19,72538,4213,383
– Gross Shorts:27,25327,7266,550
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.066.813.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.245.2-56.0

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 133,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.936.12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.480.40.9
– Net Position:133,730-139,4355,705
– Gross Longs:191,685113,5028,643
– Gross Shorts:57,955252,9372,938
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.047.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.1-18.62.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.234.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.532.22.9
– Net Position:-3,2611,3591,902
– Gross Longs:30,31818,1393,413
– Gross Shorts:33,57916,7801,511
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.368.552.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.725.2-0.3

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.75.15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.28.52.6
– Net Position:160-1,008848
– Gross Longs:24,3111,5131,619
– Gross Shorts:24,1512,521771
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.839.132.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.0-56.2-1.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
06 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Gasoline & Peso lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 2nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 46.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,147 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,311 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gasoline


The Gasoline speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is now also at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.5 this week. The speculator position registered 83,723 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 7,994 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level also resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 19.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 133,730 net contracts this week with a small rise of 1,662 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 96.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 67,482 net contracts this week with a boost of 11,447 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 93.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.6 this week.

The speculator position was -714 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -143,230 net contracts this week with a decline of -14,124 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -34.7 this week. The speculator position was -22,370 net contracts this week with a dip of -402 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,896 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,267 contracts in the speculator bets.

Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Australian Dollar speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.7 this week. The speculator position was -102,685 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,767 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


Finally, the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 8.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.6 this week. The speculator position was -220,606 net contracts this week with a decrease by -48,562 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
05 Apr

Week Ahead: EURCAD ready to breakout?

By ForexTime 

  • Big week for minor currency pair
  • BoC + ECB rate decisions in focus
  • EURCAD trapped within 300 pip range
  • Prices gaining bullish momentum on D1
  • Bloomberg model: 76% chance EURCAD – (1.45454 – 1.48439)

Key central bank decisions, speeches from policymakers, high-impact data, and earnings announcements by US banks may inject markets with fresh volatility next week:

Sunday, 7th April

  • CNH: China forex reserves

Monday, 8th April

  • GER40: Germany industrial production
  • JPY: Japan current account balance
  • CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech
  • SEK: Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen speech
  • USD: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speech

Tuesday, 9th April

  • AU200: Australia consumer confidence
  • CN50: China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • CHF: SNB Vice Chair Martin Schlegel speech
  • SEK: Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden speech
  • ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, 10th April  

  • CAD: BoC rate decision
  • JP225: Japan PPI
  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • TWN: Taiwan trade
  • NAS100: US March CPI, FOMC minutes, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Thursday, 11th April

  • CN50: China CPI, PPI
  • EUR: ECB rate decision
  • US30: US initial jobless claims, PPI, New York Fed President John Williams, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speech
  • GBP: BOE policymaker Megan Greene speech
  • SEK: Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson speech

Friday, 12th April

  • CAD: Canada existing home sales
  • CNH: China trade
  • GER40: Germany CPI
  • JP225: Japan industrial production
  • NZD: New Zealand food prices, PMI
  • UK100: UK industrial production, Manufacturing production, Trade balance, GDP (MoM)
  • USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
  • US500: Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings

The spotlight shines on the EURCAD which has been trapped within a 300-pip range since December 2023.

Given how the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions have the potential to rock the minor currency, a major breakout may be on the horizon.

Here are 3 reasons why:

    1) BoC rate decision

The Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5% on Wednesday.

When considering the two consecutive downside surprises in inflation, expectations are rising over the central bank cutting interest rates in summer. Nevertheless, much attention will be directed towards the policy statement for fresh insight into the central bank’s future rate decisions.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis point BoC cut by June 2024 with a move fully priced in by July.

  • Should the BoC hint that a rate cut could be on the horizon, the CAD is likely to weaken – boosting the USDCAD as a result.
  • If the BoC signals that more time may be needed before rates are lowered, this could lend support to the CAD – dragging the USDCAD lower.

 

    2) ECB rate decision

Markets widely expect the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

Back in March, the European Central Bank signalled that interest rates could be cut by June after lowering its forecast for inflation. So much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after inflation fell to 2.4% in March – its lowest rate in more than two years.

Traders are currently pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by June with a move fully priced in by July.

  • A dovish sounding ECB that confirms that rates will be cut in June may hit the euro, sending the EURCAD lower.
  • If the ECB sounds more hawkish than expected, the euro may jump – pushing the EURCAD higher.

 

    3) Technical forces

EURCAD seems to be gaining bullish momentum on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

  • A solid breakout above 1.4700 may trigger a move towards 1.4750 which has proved a tough nut to crack. Should bulls secure a solid daily close above this level, it could open the doors towards 1.4850.
  • Should prices drop below the 100-day SMA at 1.4665, this could trigger a selloff towards the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA at 1.4620. Below this point, will be the low at 1.4545.

The Bloomberg FX model now forecasts a 76% chance that EURCAD will trade within the 1.45454 – 1.48439 range through next week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
05 Apr

AUD takes a pause after rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

After three days of significant gains, the Australian dollar is retreating against its American counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6573.

The US dollar has rebounded after Federal Reserve officials expressed doubts about an immediate monetary policy easing. The discussion around interest rates and the timing of their reduction has become a central topic in the market. Signals that the Fed is prepared to cut rates three times this year, making borrowing costs more affordable, have put pressure on the US dollar, allowing other currencies to recover. However, signs that the Federal Reserve is still awaiting more data before deciding have led to a rebound in the USD and a decline in overall market sentiment.

Australia’s statistical data revealed that import volumes grew by 4.8% month-over-month in February, compared to a previous increase of 1.4%. Export volumes decreased by 2.2% month-over-month, with January’s figure at 1.5%. The positive trade balance in February was the lowest in five months, primarily due to a drop in overseas shipments of iron ore.

For the third consecutive meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% annually, its highest level in 12 years. Meanwhile, the RBA has omitted any mention of potential rate hikes from its comments, confident in reducing inflationary pressure. This has led to forecasts that borrowing costs in Australia may decrease later this year.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave to 0.6480 and a correction to 0.6617 have been completed. We expect the start of a new decline to 0.6422. The first structure of the decline is forming today, targeting 0.6520. After completing this, we anticipate a consolidation range. Exiting this range downward could lead to a wave towards 0.6472, potentially extending the trend down to 0.6422. The MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero, supports this scenario, expecting new lows.

On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave structure to 0.6520 is forming. Following this, a correction to 0.6572 is anticipated, and a decline to 0.6490, with the trend continuing to 0.6422, is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 20 but poised to rise to 50, technically supports this scenario.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Apr

EUR/USD surges following Powell’s remarks on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair moved upward to 1.0844 on Thursday, marking an unexpected shift following a period of strong US dollar performance. This change in dynamics can be attributed to investors’ positive response to comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. Powell’s remarks led to a surge in risk appetite, resulting in the dollar’s decline.

Powell indicated that economic indicators would heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate adjustments. Traders interpreted his comments as suggesting that, given the recent modest nature of US economic data, the anticipated forecast of three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June, remains on the table. The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points by the year’s end, which aligns with earlier statements from the Fed. These hinted at a majority consensus among monetary policy committee members to commence rate cuts within the year, contingent on economic data.

Powell’s reaffirming the Fed’s trajectory towards lower interest rates, with specific timing depending on upcoming data, sets the stage for March’s closely watched US employment market reports. The focus will be on whether the unemployment rate has remained steady and whether there has been any deceleration in the growth of average wages.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a correction to 1.0783, with a narrow consolidation range now established around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a continuation of the correction to 1.0847, potentially followed by a new downward wave to 1.0694. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is below zero and the histogram peaks, suggesting a potential sharp decline.

The H1 chart reveals a corrective pattern towards 1.0847, with an expected shift towards 1.0783 to commence a decline phase. A new consolidation range at these levels could lead to further correction to 1.0888 or a downward wave to 1.0694 upon a breakout. The Stochastic oscillator, positioned above 80, anticipates a significant drop to the 50 mark, potentially leading to further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Apr

Target Thursdays: EURJPY, USDCHF & XAUUSD reach targets!

By ForexTime 

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  • EURJPY bulls take home 84 pips
  • USDCHF secures all bullish targets
  • XAUUSD hits 2nd profit level

​​​​​​​

    1) EURJPY up over 200 pips this week

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As discussed in our mid-week technical outlook on Wednesday, April 3rd:

“Focusing on the technical picture, a possible near-term level where EURJPY bulls may expect some resistance before reaching the 165.335 price target is 164.208.”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The EURJPY rallied over 100 pips on Wednesday, as the Japanese Yen weakened across the G10 space.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout above the 161.8 Fibonacci level at 163.368 and exited at 164.208 would have been rewarded with 84 pips!

 

    2) USDCHF blasts past all bullish targets

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (USDCHF) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The USDCHF jumped this morning after Switzerland’s inflation report surprised to the downside in March.

This report has reinforced expectations around the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting interest rates once again in June, weakening the Swiss franc as a result.  

 

  • How much in potential profits?

USDCHF has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at 0.90356 and exited at the final target level of 0.90516 would have gained 16 pips.

 

    3) XAUUSD hits second bearish level    

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (XAUUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After kissing a fresh all-time high during the early sessions of Thursday, gold seems to be experiencing a technical throwback on the M30 timeframe as bulls take a breather.

Note: The precious extended gains on Wednesday thanks to dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. More volatility could be on the cards for gold due to Fed speeches and the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Gold has hit the second take-profit level.

This is equivalent to a 523-point move from the entry price of $2296.25.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Apr

EURJPY: Bulls breach falling wedge pattern

By ForexTime 

  • EURJPY breaks pattern resistance
  • Bullish signal triggered above 161.8 level
  • Watch out for Eurozone PMI’s & PPI
  • Potential price target at 164.208
  • Bloomberg Model: 80% chance EURJPY – (161.56 – 165.06)

The EURJPY triggered a bullish signal on Wednesday after prices breached the falling wedge pattern.

Over the past few days, the minor currency pair has been trending lower with yesterday’s rebound creating a foundation for bulls to re-enter the scene.

According to Thomas Bulkowski, in his book “The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”, upward breakouts from falling wedges;

  • are expected to meet their price target 62% of the time.

  • Have a breakeven failure rate of 26%.

The highest high in the wedge -165.335- is used as the measured move objective (target).

At the time of writing EURJPY is testing the golden Fibonacci level of 161.8 at 163.368.

Interestingly, prices remained steady despite inflation figures from Europe slowing more than expected and reinforcing bets around the ECB cutting rates in June. This could be based on the Yen weakening against most G10 currencies including the euro this morning.

Note: Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by June 2024.

Investors may direct their attention toward the incoming Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI and PPI figures on Thursday for more insight into the health of the Eurozone economy.

Focusing on the technical picture, a possible near-term level where EURJPY bulls may expect some resistance before reaching the price target is 164.208.

In the event of a failed falling wedge pattern, EURJPY bears may look forward to the following key levels for support.

  • 163.022

  • 162.668

  • 162.163 – 100% Fibonacci level

The Fibonacci level is taken from March 8th 2024 high at 162.163 to March 11th 2024 low at160.209.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts an 80% chance that EURJPY will trade within the 161.56 – 165.06 range over the next one week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
02 Apr

The US Dollar strengthens following positive manufacturing data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has dipped to its lowest since 15 February this year following the release of encouraging data regarding the US manufacturing sector’s activity on Monday. This improvement, the first since September 2022, has bolstered the US dollar’s position.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the manufacturing business activity index climbed to 50.3 points in March from 47.8 in the preceding month. This rise above the crucial 50.0-point threshold, which distinguishes contraction from expansion, signals a positive development for the sector.

Key insights from the report highlight an increase in new orders, although manufacturing employment figures remained subdued. The surge in raw material prices also influenced the overall index, which might have otherwise recorded a higher reading. Importantly, this data signifies the end of the manufacturing sector’s most prolonged downturn in 16 months, a sector that constitutes approximately 10.4% of the US economy.

Further economic data revealed that the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose by 0.3% in February, slightly below the anticipated 0.4% increase. This Core PCE index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, suggests that the Fed may have room to adjust interest rates downwards in June 2024, given the subdued inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s decision in June have seen slight adjustments. CME FedWatch Tool data indicate a 66% likelihood of policy easing, a slight decrease from the prior 68% and significantly up from 57% the previous week.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 Chart Analysis: the EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0794 level. A downward breakout from this range could lead to a continued decline towards 1.0650. A corrective move back to 1.0794, testing from below, may follow, with potential further descent to 1.0600. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line below zero, indicating a continued downward trend.

H1 Chart Analysis: a corrective structure has been completed at the 1.0804 level on the H1 chart. Following the news release, the market breached the 1.0777 level downwards, continuing the downward trajectory towards 1.0720. Upon completion, a potential uptick to 1.0790 (testing from below) could occur before another drop to the 1.0650 mark. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 50, anticipates a further decline to the 20 mark, supporting the bearish outlook.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
28 Mar

GBP Consolidates Amid Concerns Over Economic Growth and Wage Trends

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating, hovering around the 1.2631 mark. This consolidation phase follows recent reports highlighting a slowdown in the expansion plans of British businesses for workforce and wage growth, raising concerns about future economic dynamics and inflationary pressures.

A key report from the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer indicates a noticeable dip in the hiring outlook among companies. The differential between firms looking to hire and those planning cuts fell to 27% from a peak of 36% in February. This level is only slightly above the long-term average of 22%. Moreover, there has also been a marginal decline in the proportion of businesses anticipating wage increases in the next year.

Despite these trends, Bank of England (BoE) data provides a somewhat optimistic outlook, showing that British borrowers manage the high-interest environment relatively well. The incidence of problematic debt remains significantly lower than levels seen following the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring the resilience of the UK’s economic system and indicating signs of GDP recovery.

Catherine Mann, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, has called for a more realistic assessment of monetary policy expectations, suggesting that market predictions for substantial interest rate cuts by the BoE might be overly optimistic. Current market sentiment suggests a high probability of a rate reduction at the BoE’s August meeting.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

The H4 chart analysis for GBP/USD shows ongoing consolidation around 1.2626. A breakout above this range could signal a potential corrective rise to 1.2700. Conversely, a move below this level may indicate a downward trend towards 1.2450 as an initial target. A potential correction to 1.2626 could follow, with a possible further decline to 1.2355. The MACD oscillator’s position below zero supports the possibility of continued downward movement.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a consolidation range around 1.2626, with no definitive trend. An upward breakout might lead to a corrective move towards 1.2676, while a downward breakout could signal the continuation of a decline to 1.2545 and potentially to 1.2450. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80 and trending downwards, aligns with the likelihood of a continued decline.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Mar

EURSEK: Hits fresh 2024 high at 200-day SMA

By ForexTime

  • EURSEK hits highest level in 2024
  • Riksbank signals future rate cuts
  • Krona ↓ Vs. most G10 MTD
  • Prices bullish on D1 but RSI overbought
  • Moment of truth at 200-day SMA

The EURSEK hijacked our attention on Wednesday after hitting a fresh 2024 high above 11.50!

Bulls were already in a position of power with the minor currency pair blasting through key resistance earlier in the week.

With the Swedish Krona weakening further this morning after Sweden’s central bank indicated a potential rate cut as soon as May, further upside could be on the cards for the EURSEK.

Note: Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 4% in March but struck a dovish note.

Traders are currently pricing in an 86% probability of a 25-basis point Riksbank cut by May 2024.

When considering how this may be before the ECB and Fed which are expected to cut in June, it will make Riskbank the second major bank in the G10 space after Switzerland to cut rates.

Fun fact: The SEK has weakened against almost every single major currency this month.

Beyond the Riksbank decision, the latest economic sentiment data from Europe matched expectations, rising to 96.30 in March from 95.50 in the previous month. It will be wise to keep an eye on data from Germany published on Thursday which could influence expectations around when the ECB will start cutting rates.

Focusing on the technical picture, the EURSEK is faced with a “moment of truth” as it is confronted with a combined resistance of its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and an upward-sloping resistance line at 11.50136.

From an Elliot Wave perspective, the 3rd impulse wave is in play and may rally to 11.68710 (over 17,000 points from its current 200-day SMA).

This is one highly probable scenario that EURSEK bulls, (those looking to see prices rally) may look forward to if the confluence of resistance is broken.

On the back of these news releases, EURSEK H1 broke out of the resistance zone of an upward-sloping channel which started to appear on Monday, March 25th, 2024, and is being rejected at the combined resistance earlier highlighted in D1 above.

EURSEK bears (those looking to see a price decline) may have their sights turned to the support zone of this channel at 11.44333 if the price continues to decline.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 78% chance that EURSEK will trade within the 11.3738 – 11.5829 range into next week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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