Archive for Forex and Currency News

GBP Crashes Despite Better UK Data

By Orbex

USD Breaks Resistance

The US dollar has been firmer over the last 24 hours with the USD index breaking above the 97.42 level yesterday. For now, momentum has stalled and price is sitting just above this level. The absence of any key US data this week means that moves have been light. However, USD sentiment is generally positive and further upside looks likely.

Euro Lower Following ECB

EURUSD has been firmly lower today. The ECB launched its strategy review at yesterday’s policy meeting though warned markets that while the review is underway, its monetary policy approach will not be on auto-pilot. EURUSD has broken through the 1.1072 level now and is trading 1.1049 last.

GBP Down Despite Better Data

GBPUSD reversed sharply from initial highs on the session above the 1.3150 level to trade 1.3119 last. The UK manufacturing PMI released today was seen rising to a nine-month high, though still below the 50-level at 49.8, the reaction in GBP has been firmly bearish.

Risk Assets Recovering

Risk assets have had a tricky week. The outbreak of the Wuhan virus in China weighed on equities initially though late in the week we saw a shift in sentiment with the SPX500 rallying off the week’s lows to trade back up towards recent highs.

JPY & Gold Lower

Safe havens have been lower today with both the Japanese yen and gold trading lower against the USD in light of the rally in both USD and equities. XAUUSD trades 1559.69 last, sitting atop the 1554.69 level into the end of the week. USDJPY is trading back beneath the 109.71 level today at 109.68 last.

EIA Reports Inventories Drawdown

Oil prices have been lower again today, ending the week firmly in the red. While crude saw some mild recovery yesterday on news of an EIA inventories drawdown, the move has been shallow compared to the declines suffered over the week on fears that the Wuhan virus will negatively impact crude demand. Crude trades 55.64 last.

BOC Sends Dovish Signals

USDCAD has been lower today. Despite the weakness in crude and the strength in USD over the week, the loonie has fallen back below the 1.3145 level to trade 1.3125 on Friday. At the BOC meeting this week the bank struck a more dovish tone, citing weakness in the domestic and global economy and the potential need for easing in the near future.

Aussies Rallies On Risk Recovery

AUDUSD has been a little higher today, benefitting from the recovery in risk appetite. Aussie employment data this week was better than expected with the unemployment rate falling to 5.1%. However, the market is still anticipating an RBA rate cut in response to bushfires which have been raging over the last month. AUDUSD trades .6853 last, sitting back above the .6850 level for now.

By Orbex

Equities Turn Slightly Weaker Near The Top

By Orbex

Equity markets were seen trading rather flat for the third consecutive day. The rally looks to be pausing for the moment as the earnings season gets underway.

The declines were attributed to mostly weaker banking stocks leading the way. On the economic front, data from the US was rather quiet.

Euro Falls on Dovish ECB Comments

The European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The central bank left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The central bank also announced that it would begin a strategic review of its monetary policy.

At the press conference, ECB Chief Lagarde cited that downside risks for the euro still remain. This saw the markets reacting negatively to the comments.

EURUSD Breaks Out to the Downside

The euro broke past its sideways range to the downside. Losing over 0.4% on the intraday basis, EURUSD is now likely to continue to drift lower. The next major support area is at the 1.1000 region, which offers psychological support.

In the near term, the currency pair might retrace losses and retest the 1.1072 level to establish resistance.

Sterling Falls as Brexit Becomes Official

The pound sterling reacted negatively to the news after UK lawmakers officially passed legislation to make the Brexit deal official.

It is now pending with the European Union officials, who have until next week to pave the way for the UK’s exit from the EU. Following the agreement in the parliament, the legislation received the royal assent.

GBPUSD Declines to be Limited for Now

The current declines in the GBPUSD coincide after the currency pair broke past the 1.3100 level. The retracement will see the GBP testing the level of 1.3100 where support could now be forming.

As long as this level holds, GBPUSD remains biased to the upside with 1.3226 being the next target.

Gold Prices Continue to Consolidate

The precious metal continues to remain trading flat, albeit close to the seven-year highs. The dovish ECB message saw some bounce in the precious metal, which faded over the intraday session.

Gold prices were also muted to the weekly jobless claims report. With the Fed meeting due next, we expect this flat trading to continue.

XAUUSD Testing the Resistance

The precious metal pared losses and is once again back near the resistance area of 1562. The ascending triangle pattern remains in play. An upside breakout will potentially trigger further gains.

However, this will put gold prices to test the previous highs. Failure to breakout higher could result in either price consolidating or perhaps correcting lower.

By Orbex

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 24.01.2020 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave, EURUSD has completed the ascending impulse at 1.1058; right now, it correcting towards 1.1047. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate between these two levels. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and start a new growth with the short-term target at 1.1090.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has formed two descending impulses; right now, it is correcting towards 1.3129. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach 1.3093 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1.3123.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed the correction towards 0.9686; right now. it is growing with the target at 0.9704. Possibly, the pair may reach it and then form a new descending structure to return to 0.9686. After that, the instrument may consolidate around 0.9690.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After forming a continuation pattern around 109.57 and breaking it to the downside, USDJPY is forming the second descending impulse. Possibly, the pair may fall with the short-term target at 109.08. Later, the market may start another correction to return to 109.57 and test it from below.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has broken 0.6853. Possibly, the pair may continue moving downwards with the short-term target at 0.6811.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 61.90 without any particular direction. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue the correction towards 63.00. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 62.15 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 61.91.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading downwards. Possibly, the pair may break 1.3126 and then continue falling towards 1.3099. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to return to 1.3126.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has reached the target of Flag correctional pattern at 1567.55; right now, it is falling with the short-term target at 1555.45. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 1559.50.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has finished the ascending impulse towards 62.26. Today, the pair may correct towards 61.67 and then form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 63.18.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is forming the second descending impulse with the target at 8060.00. The main scenario implies that the pair may reach this level and then start a new correction towards 8400.00. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards to reach 7750.00.

BITCOIN

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2020.01.24

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.10928
  • Open: 1.10534
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.34
  • Day’s range: 1.10314 – 1.10616
  • 52 wk range: 1.0879 – 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair has moved down after the ECB meeting. During yesterday’s and today’s trades the drop in quotations exceeded 60 points. As expected, the regulator kept the main parameters of monetary policy at the same level. The central bank is concerned about weak inflation prospects, as well as growing risks in international trade. The ECB plans to further stimulate the economy for a long period of time. At the moment, the trading instrument is consolidating in the range of 1.10300-1.10600. EUR/USD quotes have potential for further decline. Open positions from key levels.

Mixed data on business activity in Germany and the euro zone was published today.

EUR/USD

The indicators signal the sellers’ strength: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates a bearish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located near the oversold area, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a weak sell signal for EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.10300, 1.10000
  • Resistance levels: 1.10600, 1.10800, 1.11000

If the price fixes below 1.10300, expect further decline of EUR/USD quotes to 1.1000-1.09800.

Alternatively, the quotes could recover toward 1.10800-1.11000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.31387
  • Open: 1.31236
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.18
  • Day’s range: 1.30800 – 1.31729
  • 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3516

The GBP/USD currency pair has stabilized. Sterling is currently trading in a flat. There is no defined trend. Financial market participants are waiting for additional drivers. The key range is 1.30800-1.31200. Elizabeth II signed a bill on the country’s exit from the European Union (EU), which was prepared by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Now the document has received the status of a law and gained legal force. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 24.01.2020 is calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.30800, 1.30350, 1.30000
  • Resistance levels: 1.31200, 1.31500, 1.31700

If the price fixes below 1.30800, GBP/USD quotes are expected to fall toward 1.30400-1.30200.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.31500-1.31800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.31347
  • Open: 1.31268
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.06
  • Day’s range: 1.31211 – 1.31424
  • 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.3566

USD/CAD quotes have stabilized after a sharp rise at the beginning of this week. At the moment the Mooney is consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are: 1.31200 and 1.31500, respectively. The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure from the negative dynamics of oil quotations. We do not rule out further growth of the USD/CAD currency pair. Today, investors will evaluate important economic releases from Canada. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

At 15:30 (GMT+2:00) Canada will release a report on retail sales.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31200, 1.30900, 1.30750
  • Resistance levels: 1.31500, 1.31700

If the price fixes above 1.31500, expect further growth of USD/CAD toward 1.31800-1.32200.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.30900-1.30700.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.832
  • Open: 109.487
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.25
  • Day’s range: 109.439 – 109.652
  • 52 wk range: 104.45 – 113.53

Bearish sentiment prevails on USD/JPY currency pair. The trading instrument has set new local lows. At the moment USD/JPY is consolidating in the range 109.450-109.650. The demand for “quiet harbor” currencies remains at a fairly high level. We do not rule out further growth of the yen against the US dollar. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of US government bond yields. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news background on the Japanese economy is quite calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA.

MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish mood..

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.450, 109.300, 109.000
  • Resistance levels: 109.650, 109.850

If the price fixes below 109.450, expect a descend toward 109.200-109.000.

Alternatively, the quots could grow toward 109.800-110.000.

by JustForex

Investors Assess ECB Meeting. Queen Elizabeth II Signed Brexit Bill

by JustForex

During yesterday’s trading session, the US dollar strengthened slightly against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the green zone (+0.19%). The ECB meeting was the key event. The regulator, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The central bank is worried about weak inflation prospects, as well as rising risks in international trade. The ECB plans to further stimulate the economy over a long period of time.

Investors continue to monitor the coronavirus from China. Thus, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that so far, the virus was a local crisis, and had not assigned it the status of a global emergency. For now, 25 fatal cases and more than 800 cases of infection have been recorded

Queen of the United Kingdom Elizabeth II signed a bill on the country’s exit from the European Union (EU), which was prepared by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Now the document has received the status of law and gained legal force. At the next stage, the deal should be ratified by the European Parliament, which is scheduled for January 29.

The “black gold” prices are rising after fall the day before. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $55.65 mark per barrel. At 20:00 (GMT+2:00), U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.11%), #DIA (-0.09%), #QQQ (+0.32%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has not changed. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.74-1.75%.

The Economic News Feed for 24.01.2020:
  • – German manufacturing PMI at 10:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Composite PMI in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Core retail sales in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

Will the USDCAD climb thanks to Canadian Retail Sales?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events 24 January 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday left rates unchanged at 1.75%, the Canadian Dollar sold off sharply on a broad front.

The reason for that can be found in the dovish rhetoric in the BoC statement and the comments from BoC Governor Poloz stating that a rate cut was on the table, even though financial vulnerability concerns weighed against a cut.

As a result, swap markets started to price in a rate cut. Here expectation for the BoC March meeting went up from 6% to 27.5% and for the BoC meeting in April these speculations rose from 22% to 51%.

What was certainly also interesting was that BoC Governor Poloz had a quite big emphasis on data, particularly on consumer data. And with the Canadian Retail Sales number being due today at 1330 GMT, elevated volatility seems warranted.

Any disappointment similar to last month when Retails Sales data for October came in at -1.2% (MoM), compared to the expected 0.0%, could trigger an acceleration of the current bullish move in the USDCAD on the upside and bringing the overall target around 1.3300/50 into our focus in the weeks to come.

On the other hand: any positive news is capable of resulting in a short-term bounce. But given the increasing likelihood of a rate cut from the BoC, we consider buying a dip against the region around 1.3050/3080 with the picture darkening only if we drop below 1.2950 to be interesting from a risk-reward perspective.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on USDCAD Daily chart (between 07 November 2018 to 24 January 2020). Accessed: 24 January 2020 at 10:00 PM GMT

In 2015, the value of the USDCAD increased by 19.1%, in 2016 it fell by 2.9%, in 2017 it fell by 6.4%, in 2018 it increased by 8.4%, in 2019 it fell by 4.7% meaning that after five years, it was up by 11.7%.

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By Admiral Markets

EURUSD: euro to remain under pressure after Lagarde speech

By Alpari.com

On Thursday, January 23, the euro was down at the close of trading. Bulls lost ground during the speeches at the ECB meeting, including one from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The EURUSD pair fell by 50 points, to 1.1036.

The ECB has left its key interest rates and incentive programs unchanged, with Lagarde commenting that the bank’s monetary policy will remain stimulating for an extended period of timre.

Today’s events (GMT+3):

  • From 11:15-12:30 PMI indexes in the manufacturing sector and services sectors in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK are set to be published.
  • 13:30 Eurozone: ECB’s President Lagarde speech.
  • 16:30 Canada: Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov).
  • 17:45 USA: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Markit Services PMI (Jan).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.

 

Рис. 1Current situation:

The price fall stopped at the 112th degree. The fall was sharp, and the rebound was weak. In this regard, today we may consider the continuation of the weakening of the euro against the US dollar to the 1.1014 mark.

Most euro cross pairs are trading in the red, so the fall could be sharp. The zone between the 112th and 135th degrees is a reversal, therefore, we think any decrease will be limited to 1.1014. Since the Stochastic Oscillator indicates oversold conditions, we are waiting for the downward wave to come in the American session. Additional pressure on risky assets comes from the latest news out of China concerning the mystery virus. Investors fear the rapid spread of the virus around the world.

By Alpari.com

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.01.2020 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6860; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6875 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6765. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6925. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7005.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6588; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6615 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6485. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6645. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6735.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3167; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.3115 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3245. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3010. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2935.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

CAD Sinks On Dovish BOC

By Orbex

Dollar Holding Below Resistance

The US dollar has been fairly stagnant over the last 24 hours. The lack of any key US data this week has created an absence of directional drivers which has seen the USD index remain in consolidation mode just below the recent 97.42 resistance level.

Some weakness in equities over the week as a result of concerns over the outbreak of the coronavirus has helped keep USD underpinned at recent levels.

Euro Lower Ahead of ECB

EURUSD has been a little weaker today. The residual strength in USD over the week has weighed on EUR. The ECB meets today and while no change in policy is expected, traders will be keen to hear the details of the bank’s strategy review. Special attention will be paid to the details around the inflation target. EURUSD trades 1.1089 last.

GBP Pauses At Highs

GBPUSD has been a little softer today, pausing just below the recent 1.3152 highs. GBP has been much stronger over the week though upside has stalled over the last 24 hours.

Tomorrow the market will receive the latest manufacturing and services PMIs for the UK which have the potential to create volatility late in the week.

Risk Appetite Softening

Risk assets have been a little softer in recent trading. The outbreak of the Wuhan virus in China is prompting fears of a wide outbreak, as with the SARS virus, which is weighing on risk appetite.

With the Chinese lunar new year travel period coming up there are fears that the contagion will worsen. One case has already been reported in the US. SPX500 trades 3320.83 last.

JPY Sees Strong Rally, Gold Weaker

Safe havens have had a mixed start to early European trading with gold down against USD while JPY has been higher. Residual strength in USD has kept upside capped in gold this week while broader uncertainty around the Wuhan virus is fuelling strong safe-haven demand for JPY.

XAUUSD is currently challenging the 1554.69 level from above. USDJPY trades 109.57 last, having broken back below the 109.71 level.

Crude Crumbles on Bearish API

Oil prices have been lower today, extending decline across the week, as the spread of the Wuhan virus is causing concerns for the global oil demand outlook.

The API yesterday reported a 1.5 million barrel surplus in US crude inventories. The EIA will report its figures today, with the release delayed due to MLK day. Crude trades 55.89 last.

Loonie Higher Following Dovish BOC

USDCAD has been higher today following the sell-off in CAD seen in response to yesterday’s BOC meeting. The BOC kept rates on hold though fuelled expectations of a forthcoming rate cut with a more dovish statement and outlook on the economy.

The bank no longer refers to current policy levels as appropriate and traders now judge a rate cut likely in the near future. USDCAD trades 1.3162 last.

Aussie Jumps On Labour Data

AUDUSD has been firmer today with price rallying back above the .6850 level which was briefly pierced yesterday. Overnight, Aussie unemployment rate was seen moving lower to 5.1% from the prior and expected 5.2%. However, the outlook remains bearish with traders still expecting an RBA rate cut in February.

By Orbex

Murrey Math Lines 23.01.2020 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF has rebounded from 3/8. In this case, the price is expected to resume falling to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at 5/8.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading downwards to reach 0/8 from the H4 chart.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is still moving below 3/8. In this case, the price is expected to continue trading downwards to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at 3/8.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue the descending tendency.

GOLD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.