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USDJPY Analysis: Rising current account surplus in Japan bullish for USDJPY

By IFCMarkets

Rising current account surplus in Japan bullish for USDJPY

Current account surplus rose in Japan in February: current account surplus rose to 2.38 trillion yen from 1.63 trillion in January, when a decline to 2.02 trillion yen was forecast. This is bullish for USDJPY.

Indicator VALUE Signal
MACD Buy
Stochastic Neutral
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 109
Stop loss Below 108.6

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 08.04.2020 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is forming a new rising tendency as a reversal of the previous downtrend. After breaking 23.6% fibo, the first ascending impulse has stopped at 38.2% fibo at 1.2545. The short-term scenario may be described as a correction of the first impulse. After finishing the correction, the pair may start another impulse to the upside to reach 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2545, 1.2892, and 1.3242 respectively. If the price breaks the low at 1.1409, the instrument may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.1365 and 1.0996 respectively.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction. The target of this pullback is 38.2% fibo (1.2092).

GBPUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after failing to break the local low at 116.13 and then falling towards 115.85, EURJPY may start a new growth or even a long-term ascending wave. The first signal of the new long-term tendency may be the price’s reaching 76.0% fibo at 121.25 and then breaking the high at 122.87. After breaking this level and forming a slight pullback, the instrument may resume growing to reach its long-term target at 38.2% fibo (124.13).

EURJPY_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart a more detailed structure of the current uptrend. The pair has already reached 38.2% fibo and may continue growing towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 119.50 and 120.29 respectively. The support is the low at 116.35.

EURJPY_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 08.04.2020

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.0836 and then reaching 1.0926, EURUSD is trading downwards to1.0836. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure towards 1.0870 and then resume moving inside the downtrend with the target at 1.0820.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has finished the correctional structure at 1.2356; right now, it is forming another descending wave to reach 1.2176. Possibly, the pair may break this level to the downside and then continue moving inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.1988.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the descending wave at 0.9685, USDCHF is correcting towards 0.9733. Today, the pair may reach this level and then form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9679.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the structure of the first descending impulse at 108.44, USDJPY has returned to 108.95, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 109.55; if to the downside – resume moving downwards with the target at 107.62.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating around 0.6106. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 0.6220 and then fall towards its downside border at 0.5920. After that, the instrument may break this level and start another correction with the target at 0.5822.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished the descending structure at 75.44. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to correct towards 77.30. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 74.22.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD continues forming the fifth descending wave; after breaking 1.4060, it has reached 1.3944. Possibly, today the pair may test the broken level from below and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.3888. The key target is at 1.3812.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues forming the descending wave towards 1635.77. Possibly, the pair may reach this level and then grow towards 1655.55. Later, the market may resume trading inside the downtrend to continue the correction with the short-term target at 1628.47. The key target is at 1615.30.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 31.65. Possibly, today the pair may fall towards 29.92 and then grow to return to 31.65. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to complete the correction at 29.33. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 35.86.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is still forming the ascending wave with the target at 7530.00. Later, the market may form the first descending impulse towards 6600.00. After that, the instrument may start a new correction with the key target at 5600.00.

BTCUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2020.04.08

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.07919
  • Open: 1.08900
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.91
  • Day’s range: 1.08301 – 1.09022
  • 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

The EUR/USD currency pair has moved away from local highs. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.08250-1.08850. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of FOMC minutes. We recommend paying attention to the comments by representatives of the regulator. The COVID-19 epidemic is still in the focus of attention. The number of recorded cases of coronavirus in the world exceeded 1.45 million. Positions should be opened from key levels of support and resistance.

At 21:00 (GMT+3:00), the FOMC meeting minutes will be published.

EUR/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.08250, 1.07750
  • Resistance levels: 1.08850, 1.09250, 1.09700

If the price fixes above 1.08850, the EUR/USD currency pair is expected to grow. The movement is tending to 1.09250-1.09500.

An alternative could be a drop in the EUR/USD quotes to 1.07900-1.07700.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.22303
  • Open: 1.23253
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.89
  • Day’s range: 1.22880 – 1.23528
  • 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

The GBP/USD currency pair is still being traded in a flat. There is no defined trend. Investors expect additional drivers. Today, the FOMC meeting minutes will be the key event. The local support and resistance levels are 1.22500 and 1.23450, respectively. We also recommend following current information regarding the distribution of COVID-19. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.22500, 1.21650, 1.20500
  • Resistance levels: 1.23450, 1.24250, 1.24800

If the price fixes below 1.22500, GBP/USD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.21700-1.21200.

An alternative could be the growth of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24250-1.24800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.41104
  • Open: 1.39921
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.82
  • Day’s range: 1.39823 – 1.40814
  • 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

USD/CAD quotes have moved away from local lows. Loonie is currently consolidating. The technical pattern is ambiguous. The key support and resistance levels are 1.40100 and 1.41000, respectively. Investors expect the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes. We also recommend paying attention to the dynamics of oil quotes. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The News Feed on Canada’s Economy:

  • – Building permits at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).
USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.40100, 1.39450
  • Resistance levels: 1.41000, 1.41750, 1.42600

If the price fixes below 1.40100, a further drop in the USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.39500-1.39200.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.41500-1.41800.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.216
  • Open: 108.744
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.47
  • Day’s range: 108.505 – 109.005
  • 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

At the moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is consolidating. There is no defined trend. USD/JPY quotes are testing local support and resistance levels: 108.550 and 109.000, respectively. Publication of the FOMC meeting minutes is in the spotlight. We also recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is quite calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 108.550, 108.150, 107.600
  • Resistance levels: 109.000, 109.350, 110.100

If the price fixes above 109,000, further growth of the USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 109.400-109.800.

An alternative could be a decrease in the USD/JPY currency pair to 108.200-107.800.

by JustForex

EURUSD Analysis: Smaller slowing of industrial output in Germany bullish for EURUSD

By IFCMarkets

Smaller slowing of industrial output in Germany bullish for EURUSD

Industrial production growth slowed in Germany less than forecast: Germany recorded 0.3% industrial output growth over month in February after 3.2% growth in previous month, when a 0.7% decline was forecast. This is bullish for EURUSD.

Indicator VALUE Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

 

Summary of technical analysis

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 1.0892
Stop loss Below 1.0790

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 07.04.2020 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Hammer pattern and reversing, USDCAD has tested the channel’s upside border. At the moment, the pair is still rebounding from the resistance level to continue the descending tendency. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.3920. At the same time, there might be another scenario, which implies that the instrument may re-test the channel’s upside border and grow towards 1.4300.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair continues the ascending tendency. After completing an Inverted Hammer pattern near the rising channel’s downside border, AUDUSD is reversing. Later, the price may continue trading upwards to reach 0.6333. Still, the instrument may choose a different scenario and continue falling towards 0.6000.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair continues forming the ascending channel. By now, USDCHF has formed a Doji pattern near the resistance level. The current situation suggests that after reversing the pair may start a slight correction and then continue the ascending tendency. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.9868. However, one shouldn’t ignore another scenario, which implies a deeper correction towards 0.9645.

USDCHF

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 07.04.2020 (BTCUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is trading at 7240.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a bullish tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 7105.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 7845.00. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 6685.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 5965.00.

BTCUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6146; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a bullish tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6115 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6455. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.5895. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.5805.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.4049; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a bearish tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.4125 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3775. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the downside border of a Triangle pattern. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.4255. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.4335.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Dollar Slips Amid Risk-On Mood

The US dollar lost ground against its major rivals in Tuesday trading, as glimmers of hope over the coronavirus lifted risk appetite among investors. The greenback had rallied sharply since March 9th as fears spiked over the economic consequences of lockdowns across the globe. However, signs of a slowdown in the spread of coronavirus prompted flows into risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar, while safe havens such as gold and the US dollar traded lower.

Data from Johns Hopkins University shows that coronavirus COVID-19 global cases have risen to 1,350,841, with 74,870 fatalities. Hopes were lifted after hard hit Italy reported its lowest daily COVID-19 death toll for more than two weeks on Sunday. Italy’s ISS national health institute director Silvio Brusaferro told reporters, “The curve has started its descent and the number of deaths has started to drop”. He added “If these data are confirmed (in the coming days), we will have to start thinking about phase two”, suggesting that authorities are beginning to think about easing lockdowns.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is on edge after Boris Johnson spent the night in intensive care at a central London hospital after his coronavirus symptoms worsened. Numerous world leaders expressed their well wishes, with French President Emmanuel Macron tweeting Monday: “I send all my support to Boris Johnson, to his family and to the British people at this difficult moment. I wish him a speedy recovery at this testing time.”

Global equity markets traded higher in early trading on Tuesday, lifted by signs of the pandemic slowing and also by rising hope that the world’s biggest producers of crude oil will agree to cut output. The euro snapped a six day losing streak against the dollar, rallying over 100 pips as confidence over Eurozone prospects increased. Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart we can see resistance overhead at the 50 period SMA currently at 1.0973, while support lies below in the area of 1.0776.

By Dan Blystone, Scandinavian Capital Markets

 

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2020.04.07

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.08105
  • Open: 1.07919
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.11
  • Day’s range: 1.07833 – 1.08772
  • 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

EUR/USD quotes have been growing after a prolonged fall. The trading instrument has updated local highs. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is testing the 1.08800 mark. The level of 1.08250 is already a “mirror” support. The technical pattern signals a further recovery of the single currency. Today, senior eurozone officials should hold a videoconference to agree on economic measures in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Positions should be opened from key support and resistance levels.

The publication of important economic releases is not expected.

EUR/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram has started to rise, indicating the development of bullish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.08250, 1.07750
  • Resistance levels: 1.08800, 1.09200, 1.09700

If the price fixes above 1.08800, further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.09200-1.09500.

An alternative could be a drop in the EUR/USD quotes to 1.07900-1.07700.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.22341
  • Open: 1.22303
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.10
  • Day’s range: 1.21643 – 1.23472
  • 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound is being traded in a flat. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.22500 and 1.23450, respectively. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care unit after his COVID-19 symptoms worsened. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The news feed on the UK economy is quite calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.22500, 1.21650, 1.20500
  • Resistance levels: 1.23450, 1.24250, 1.24800

If the price fixes below 1.22500, GBP/USD is expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.21700-1.21200.

An alternative could be the growth of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24250-1.24800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.42242
  • Open: 1.41104
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.01
  • Day’s range: 1.40123 – 1.41432
  • 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

The USD/CAD currency pair has been declining after a prolonged consolidation. The trading instrument has updated local lows. At the moment, USD/CAD quotes are testing support of 1.40100. The 1.41000 round level is already a “mirror” resistance. The recovery of oil quotes supports the loonie. The Canadian dollar has the potential to further strengthen against the greenback. Positions should be opened from key levels.

At 17:00 (GMT+3:00), Ivey PMI will be published in Canada.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.40100, 1.39250
  • Resistance levels: 1.41000, 1.41750, 1.42600

If the price fixes below 1.40100, a further drop in the USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.39500-1.39000.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.41500-1.42000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 108.350
  • Open: 109.216
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.46
  • Day’s range: 108.672 – 109.280
  • 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair has become stable. The trading instrument is currently consolidating. There is no defined trend. USD/JPY quotes are testing local support and resistance levels: 108.700 and 109.300, respectively. Investors expect additional drivers. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is calm enough.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 108.700, 108.200, 107.600
  • Resistance levels: 109.300, 110.100

If the price fixes above 109.300, further growth of USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 110.000-110.200.

An alternative could be a decrease in the USD/JPY currency pair to 108.200-107.800.

by JustForex

Dollar net short bets rise despite passing of coronavirus relief bill

By IFCMarkets

US dollar bearish bets continued to rise reaching to $9.89 billion from $8.86 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to March 31 and released on Friday April 3. The change in overall dollar position was due to increase in bullish bets on euro and Swiss franc while bullish bets on British Pound and Japanese yen were cut further. Australian and Canadian dollars maintained net short positions against the dollar. Bearish dollar bets rose as the historic $2 trillion economic stimulus bill passed, allocating $1,200 direct payments to many Americans, more than $360 billion in loans to small businesses and $500 billion to industries, cities and states. At the same time the Labor Department report indicated the number of Americans who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time soared to a record 3.28 million in the week ending March 21.

 

CFTC Sentiment vs Exchange Rate

March 31 2020 Bias Ex RateTrend Position $ mln Weekly Change
CAD bearish negative -1559 468
AUD bearish negative -1949 -442
EUR bullish negative 10236 1955
GBP bullish negative 388 -414
CHF bullish negative 644 20
JPY bullish negative 2125 -558
Total 9885

 

commitment of traders net long short
commitment of traders weekly change
market sentiment ratio long short positions

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.