Archive for Financial News – Page 6

05 Apr

Stock indices saw a sharp sell-off yesterday amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials

By JustMarkets

US stock indices opened higher on Thursday on positivity from Wednesday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating his view that it would probably be appropriate to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. But by the end of the trading session, the stock market began a strong selloff amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said inflation is still too high. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said a Fed rate cut may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was down 1.35%, and the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 1.35%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.40%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes fell to two-week lows, while the Dow Jones Industrials fell to a 2-week low.

The US trade deficit, a key indicator of the country’s economic health, widened to $68.9 billion in February 2024, the highest in ten months. This was up from an upwardly revised $67.6 billion in January, surpassing forecasts of a $67.3 billion deficit. The data reflected a $0.3 billion decline in the goods deficit to $91.4 billion and a $1.6 billion surplus in services to $22.5 billion. Notably, exports rose by 2.3% to a record high of $263 billion, while imports rose 2.2% to $331.9 billion. This data has implications for the dollar index, suggesting a positive trend.

The monthly Nonfarm payrolls labor market report, a crucial economic indicator, is set to be released in the US today. The US economy is expected to have added 205k new jobs in March, maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.9%. However, average hourly earnings are expected to have declined from 4.3% to 4.1% year-over-year. This report will be the focus of investor attention, with many anticipating a soft landing for the economy. If the data set is worse than expected, particularly in terms of wages, it could put pressure on the US dollar, benefiting risk assets and indices. Conversely, if the data set is generally positive, especially if NFP turns out to be hotter than expected, it could delay the likelihood of a rate cut, providing support for the dollar. In such a scenario, indices and gold would come under pressure.

Canada reported a trade surplus of CAD 1.4 billion in February 2024, up from a revised surplus of CAD 0.6 billion in January and well above market forecasts of a CAD 0.8 billion surplus. Exports rose by 5.8% for the month to CAD 66.6 billion.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.48%.

The minutes of the latest ECB meeting showed that policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation will return to the 2% target and that the case for lower interest rates is strengthening. However, they emphasized that they must wait for further data on wages and service prices before taking any steps.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ efforts to curb supply and strong energy demand forecasts are provoking further oil price rises.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting amid continued price pressures. The latest move came after annual inflation stood at 5.09% in February 2024, almost unchanged from January, after hitting a four-month high of 5.69% in December 2023, remaining within the RBI’s target range of 2-6% in the medium term. The RBI governor reiterated its commitment to bring inflation down to 4% on time and sustainably. The central bank also maintained its economic growth forecast for FY 2025 at 7%, with projections of 7.1% in Q1, 6.9% in Q2, and Q3 and Q4 at 7% each.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods for February 2024 fell to A$7.28 billion from a downwardly revised A$10.06 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of A$10.4 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since September last year as exports fell and imports rose.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,147.21 −64.28 (−1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,596.98 −530.16 (−1.35%)

DAX (DE40) 18,403.13 +35.41 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,975.89 +38.45 (+0.48%)

USD Index 104.26 −0.55 (−0.53%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
05 Apr

AUD takes a pause after rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

After three days of significant gains, the Australian dollar is retreating against its American counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6573.

The US dollar has rebounded after Federal Reserve officials expressed doubts about an immediate monetary policy easing. The discussion around interest rates and the timing of their reduction has become a central topic in the market. Signals that the Fed is prepared to cut rates three times this year, making borrowing costs more affordable, have put pressure on the US dollar, allowing other currencies to recover. However, signs that the Federal Reserve is still awaiting more data before deciding have led to a rebound in the USD and a decline in overall market sentiment.

Australia’s statistical data revealed that import volumes grew by 4.8% month-over-month in February, compared to a previous increase of 1.4%. Export volumes decreased by 2.2% month-over-month, with January’s figure at 1.5%. The positive trade balance in February was the lowest in five months, primarily due to a drop in overseas shipments of iron ore.

For the third consecutive meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% annually, its highest level in 12 years. Meanwhile, the RBA has omitted any mention of potential rate hikes from its comments, confident in reducing inflationary pressure. This has led to forecasts that borrowing costs in Australia may decrease later this year.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave to 0.6480 and a correction to 0.6617 have been completed. We expect the start of a new decline to 0.6422. The first structure of the decline is forming today, targeting 0.6520. After completing this, we anticipate a consolidation range. Exiting this range downward could lead to a wave towards 0.6472, potentially extending the trend down to 0.6422. The MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero, supports this scenario, expecting new lows.

On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave structure to 0.6520 is forming. Following this, a correction to 0.6572 is anticipated, and a decline to 0.6490, with the trend continuing to 0.6422, is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 20 but poised to rise to 50, technically supports this scenario.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Apr

EUR/USD surges following Powell’s remarks on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair moved upward to 1.0844 on Thursday, marking an unexpected shift following a period of strong US dollar performance. This change in dynamics can be attributed to investors’ positive response to comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. Powell’s remarks led to a surge in risk appetite, resulting in the dollar’s decline.

Powell indicated that economic indicators would heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate adjustments. Traders interpreted his comments as suggesting that, given the recent modest nature of US economic data, the anticipated forecast of three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June, remains on the table. The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points by the year’s end, which aligns with earlier statements from the Fed. These hinted at a majority consensus among monetary policy committee members to commence rate cuts within the year, contingent on economic data.

Powell’s reaffirming the Fed’s trajectory towards lower interest rates, with specific timing depending on upcoming data, sets the stage for March’s closely watched US employment market reports. The focus will be on whether the unemployment rate has remained steady and whether there has been any deceleration in the growth of average wages.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a correction to 1.0783, with a narrow consolidation range now established around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a continuation of the correction to 1.0847, potentially followed by a new downward wave to 1.0694. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is below zero and the histogram peaks, suggesting a potential sharp decline.

The H1 chart reveals a corrective pattern towards 1.0847, with an expected shift towards 1.0783 to commence a decline phase. A new consolidation range at these levels could lead to further correction to 1.0888 or a downward wave to 1.0694 upon a breakout. The Stochastic oscillator, positioned above 80, anticipates a significant drop to the 50 mark, potentially leading to further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Apr

Five Eyes Gov’t Awards R&D Contract to Counterdrone Co.

Source: Streetwise Reports (4/2/24)

DroneShield Ltd. announced it has been awarded an AU$900,000 research and development contract by a Five Eyes government. Find out why one research firm names it one of the most important military AI companies. 

DroneShield Ltd. (DRO:ASX; DRSHF:OTC) announced it has been awarded an AU$900,000 research and development contract by a Five Eyes government.

The Five Eyes intelligence alliance was born out of the World War II era and includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

DroneShield said the contract specifically aims to leverage the potential of the company’s DroneSentry-X Mk2 and provide a set of software tools to enhance end-user capabilities in the counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS) domain.

“DroneShield’s radio frequency jamming capability has been recognized globally as highly effective in defeating nefarious drones,” DroneShield Chief Technical Officer Angus Bean said. “This new contract highlights that the DroneSentry-X Mk2 is a step-function in smart- jamming capabilities. We are looking forward to delivering on the capabilities the Defense users are looking for.”

The company said the contract “aligns closely” with its current technology roadmap. “Software controlled multi-channel wideband disruption allows for not only optimized channel management, frequency management, power usage, and optimization, but the addition of custom waveforms targeted at various threats,” DroneShield noted in a release.

One of the Most Important Military AI Companies

DroneShield provides C-UAS protection with a focus on radio frequency sensing, artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning, sensor fusion, electronic warfare, rapid prototyping, and MIL-SPEC manufacturing, the company’s website said.

Its technology uses “a multi-layered artificial intelligence-based solution for both detection and defeat, with smart, non-kinetic defeat.”

The company offers “protection against a wide range of improvised threats” through UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles), UGV (unmanned ground vehicles), USV (unmanned surface vehicles), and UUV (unmanned underwater vehicles).

Bell Potter analyst Daniel Laing gave the stock a Buy rating and an AU$0.90 per share price target.

DroneShield showed record results with its first profitable year in 2023, “with AU$9.3 million profit after tax.”

“DroneShield has had an outstanding last 12 months, which has been reflected in the share price performance YTD,” Bell Potter analyst Daniel Laing wrote in a research note on March 4. Laing gave the stock a Buy rating and an AU$0.90 per share price target.

McAlinden Research Partners has rated DroneShield as one of the most important military AI companies as defense orders outpace equipment losses in Ukraine.

The Catalyst: A ‘New Generation of Disruption Capabilities’

The new contract represents “the start of an entirely new generation of disruption capabilities,” DroneShield Chief Executive Officer Oleg Vornik said.

“DroneShield products are considered to be market leading by many governments around the world,” he continued. “We pride ourselves on setting the global benchmark.”

As drone protocols are designed to move away from RF interference and work in high-noise, high-clutter environments means that traditional disruption methods may become less effective. A software approach to stay one step ahead has become important to successful disruption systems, the company noted.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote in 2023 that DroneShield looked “set to succeed.” In February, he wrote: “After starting higher again in November, it has advanced in a classic bullish staircase pattern, but over the past week or two the advance has accelerated dramatically with the price at last breaking out to new all-time highs, an impressive move given the number of shares in issue.”

Laing commented on DroneShield’s current sales pipeline of AU$510 million, with AU$388 million of potential orders this year.

“DRO’s confidence in the sales pipeline is reflected in its recent investment (committed supply chain payments of AU$30m) in its inventory balance, which we view as a leading indicator of near-term sales announcements,” Laing noted.

Darren Odell of Peloton Capital also predicted good things for DroneShield, writing in July 2023 that the company had “already exceeded 2023 revenue estimates.”

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

DroneShield Ltd. (DRO:ASX; DRSHF:OTC)

Retail: 75.01%
Institutions: 13.99%
Management and Insiders: 11%
75.0%
14.0%
11.0%
*Share Structure as of 1/24/2024
Source: DroneShield Ltd.

 

Ownership and Share Structure

Management and insiders own 11% of the company. CEO Oleg Vornik owns 2.23% of the company with 15 million options, on a fully diluted basis. Non-Executive Chairman Peter James owns 0.58% of the company with 920k shares and 3 million options, on a fully diluted basis, and Non-Executive Director Jethro Marks owns 0.22%, with 1.5 million options, on a fully diluted basis, according to DroneShield.

The company reports that the largest independent investor, Charles Goode, owns 4.41% of the company with 21.5 million shares, while strategic investors own a total of 13.99% of the company.

Eprius Inc. is the second largest shareholder, with 3.16% of the company with 18.5 million shares.

In its February 2023 placement, Droneshield said that it brought ten new institutional investors on board, but it has not yet released more details.

The company reports that there are about 616 million shares outstanding, and about 526 million free-float traded shares. Its market cap is about AU$499.37 million, and it trades in a 52-week range of AU$0.93 and AU$0.21.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of DroneShield Ltd.
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Financial News Stock Market News
04 Apr

Inflationary pressures in Europe continue to decline. OPEC+ countries continued their voluntary production cuts

By JustMarkets

Stock indices traded mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) falling to a two-week low. Stocks rebounded late in the day after bond yields retreated from early highs following an unexpected decline in the ISM Services Business Activity Index for March in the US. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was down 0.11%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 0.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.23%.

The March US employment change from ADP rose by 184,000, which was stronger than expectations of 150,000. Additionally, the February ADP figure was revised upward to 155,000 from the previously reported 140,000. The data points to a robust US labor market.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday that due to the uneven nature of inflation progress, it will likely be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year, in the fourth quarter.

Ford Motor (F) shares closed higher by more than 2% after the company reported a 7% increase in US auto sales in the first quarter due to strong demand for gas-electric hybrid vehicles. Intel (INTC) is down more than 8% and topped the list of losers on the Dow Jones (US30) and NASDAQ (US100) markets after the company said losses in its fab business have gotten worse, and the division may not reach its break-even point for several years.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.52%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.03%.

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index for March declined to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y in February, better than expectations of 2.5% y/y. The core CPI declined to 2.9% y/y in March from 3.1% y/y in February, better than expectations of 3.0% y/y and the slowest growth rate in 2 years. The Eurozone unemployment rate for February was unchanged at a record low of 6.5%, beating expectations of a decline to 6.4%. The disinflation trend coincided with recent remarks by ECB policy director Robert Holzmann, who said that a slowdown in price growth could make a June rate cut appropriate.

Financial stocks led the gains on the corporate front, with BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Santander adding more than 1.5%. German auto giants also rose significantly, with Volkswagen adding 2.5% and BMW jumping more than 5%. Finally, Siemens closed in the green after clarifying that it has no plans to make an offer to buy British engineering company Renishaw.

WTI crude oil prices fell slightly and are trading just below $86 per barrel after the latest EIA data showed an unexpected rise in US inventories. US crude inventories rose by 3.21 million barrels instead of the expected decline of 1.511 million barrels. Nevertheless, prices remained near 5-month levels as traders were concerned that the Middle East’s geopolitical tensions could disrupt oil supplies. In addition, OPEC+ countries decided to extend a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until June to stabilize the market.

Copper prices rose to $4.2 a pound, the highest since April last year, amid a weaker dollar after evidence of falling inflation strengthened the case for lower interest rates. Data compiled by ISM showed that prices in the service sector rose by the least in four years. Copper prices were also boosted by good economic data from China, which refuted fears of weaker demand in the country.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.22% by Wednesday’s close and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.34%.

Judo Bank Australia’s composite business activity index rose to 53.3 in March 2024 from 52.1 in the previous month. Australia’s private sector output growth accelerated sharply at the end of the first quarter, reaching the fastest pace in almost two years. This was mainly due to strong service sector growth, although output continued to contract.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,211.49 +5.68 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,127.14 −43.10 (−0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 18,367.72 +84.59 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,937.44 +2.35 (+0.03%)

USD Index 104.26 −0.55 (−0.53%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services (m/m) PMI at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services (m/m) PMI at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
04 Apr

Target Thursdays: EURJPY, USDCHF & XAUUSD reach targets!

By ForexTime 

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  • EURJPY bulls take home 84 pips
  • USDCHF secures all bullish targets
  • XAUUSD hits 2nd profit level

​​​​​​​

    1) EURJPY up over 200 pips this week

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As discussed in our mid-week technical outlook on Wednesday, April 3rd:

“Focusing on the technical picture, a possible near-term level where EURJPY bulls may expect some resistance before reaching the 165.335 price target is 164.208.”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The EURJPY rallied over 100 pips on Wednesday, as the Japanese Yen weakened across the G10 space.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout above the 161.8 Fibonacci level at 163.368 and exited at 164.208 would have been rewarded with 84 pips!

 

    2) USDCHF blasts past all bullish targets

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (USDCHF) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The USDCHF jumped this morning after Switzerland’s inflation report surprised to the downside in March.

This report has reinforced expectations around the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting interest rates once again in June, weakening the Swiss franc as a result.  

 

  • How much in potential profits?

USDCHF has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at 0.90356 and exited at the final target level of 0.90516 would have gained 16 pips.

 

    3) XAUUSD hits second bearish level    

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (XAUUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After kissing a fresh all-time high during the early sessions of Thursday, gold seems to be experiencing a technical throwback on the M30 timeframe as bulls take a breather.

Note: The precious extended gains on Wednesday thanks to dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. More volatility could be on the cards for gold due to Fed speeches and the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Gold has hit the second take-profit level.

This is equivalent to a 523-point move from the entry price of $2296.25.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Apr

Oil prices continue to rise steadily. There is an outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs

By JustMarkets

At the end of yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.00%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.72%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.95%. Stocks declined as 10-year T-note yields rose to a 4-month high on Tuesday amid strong economic data. The US ISM manufacturing index rose the most in 1.5 years, dampening prospects for a Fed rate cut.

San Francisco Fed President Daley said yesterday that three 25 bps rate cuts in 2024 are a “reasonable baseline projection”. However, there is no need to cut rates now, given the economy’s strength. She added that if inflation is more resilient, the Fed could cut rates less, and if inflation falls faster, a rate cut may be warranted.

The February JOLTS survey unexpectedly increased US job openings by 8,000 to 8.756 million, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 8.730 million.

Tesla (TSLA) is down more than 5% and topped the NASDAQ (US100) losers list after reporting first-quarter vehicle deliveries of 386,810 units, well below the consensus forecast of 449,080 units.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell more than 5% to a one-week low on Tuesday, dragged down by falling demand for bitcoin ETFs and stronger-than-expected US economic news that pushed back the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. According to Bloomberg, investors withdrew $86 million from 10 spot bitcoin ETF funds on Monday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.92% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.89%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22%.

S&P’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for March was revised upward by 0.4 to 46.1 from a previously reported reading of 45.7. The ECB’s 1-year inflation expectations for February fell to 3.1% from 3.3% in January, the lowest in 2 years. The Eurozone will release March inflation data today, which will be closely watched amid speculation that the European Central Bank is preparing to cut rates in June. Eurozone inflation has remained high since the start of the year and needs to fall further for the ECB to go for a summer rate cut, so the next three inflation reports are key for markets. If inflation delivers an upward surprise, bets for a rate cut will be pushed back.

WTI crude prices rose above $85 a barrel on Tuesday, hitting their highest level since October. Oil supplies faced fresh threats from attacks on Russian energy facilities by Ukraine and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel for an airstrike that killed two of its top generals and five other military advisers at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus. In addition, Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex is set to cut crude exports in the coming months, adding to fears of an existing supply shortage. OPEC will hold a joint ministerial meeting today to assess market conditions and members’ compliance with production targets, with current production policies expected to remain unchanged.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.09%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 2.36% on Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.11%. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) today pulled back from a near 3-week peak reached in the previous session as fears intensified after a powerful earthquake struck Taiwan this morning, collapsing at least 26 buildings and injuring 56 people. In China, some railroad tracks were reportedly closed.

Core inflation in Japan’s capital slowed in March, and factory output unexpectedly fell in the previous month, adding uncertainty over how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates again after emerging from negative interest rates. Several weak signs in the economy may encourage the central bank to hold off on another rate hike and give investors a reason to keep selling the yen, putting pressure on the Japanese authorities to intervene in the market to support the currency.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,205.81 −37.96 (−0.72%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,170.24 −396.61 (−1.00%)

DAX (DE40) 18,283.13 −209.36 (−1.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,935.09 −17.53 (−0.22%)

USD Index 104.97 +0.43 (+0.41%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) PMI at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – OPEC Meeting (m/m) at 12:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 19:10 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
03 Apr

EURJPY: Bulls breach falling wedge pattern

By ForexTime 

  • EURJPY breaks pattern resistance
  • Bullish signal triggered above 161.8 level
  • Watch out for Eurozone PMI’s & PPI
  • Potential price target at 164.208
  • Bloomberg Model: 80% chance EURJPY – (161.56 – 165.06)

The EURJPY triggered a bullish signal on Wednesday after prices breached the falling wedge pattern.

Over the past few days, the minor currency pair has been trending lower with yesterday’s rebound creating a foundation for bulls to re-enter the scene.

According to Thomas Bulkowski, in his book “The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”, upward breakouts from falling wedges;

  • are expected to meet their price target 62% of the time.

  • Have a breakeven failure rate of 26%.

The highest high in the wedge -165.335- is used as the measured move objective (target).

At the time of writing EURJPY is testing the golden Fibonacci level of 161.8 at 163.368.

Interestingly, prices remained steady despite inflation figures from Europe slowing more than expected and reinforcing bets around the ECB cutting rates in June. This could be based on the Yen weakening against most G10 currencies including the euro this morning.

Note: Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by June 2024.

Investors may direct their attention toward the incoming Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI and PPI figures on Thursday for more insight into the health of the Eurozone economy.

Focusing on the technical picture, a possible near-term level where EURJPY bulls may expect some resistance before reaching the price target is 164.208.

In the event of a failed falling wedge pattern, EURJPY bears may look forward to the following key levels for support.

  • 163.022

  • 162.668

  • 162.163 – 100% Fibonacci level

The Fibonacci level is taken from March 8th 2024 high at 162.163 to March 11th 2024 low at160.209.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts an 80% chance that EURJPY will trade within the 161.56 – 165.06 range over the next one week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Apr

Gold hits record high; silver peaks on Fed rate cut speculation

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have soared to an all-time high of 2288.00 USD per troy ounce, while silver reached its highest in two years, driven by speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This surge followed comments from two Fed officials, Mary Daly of the FRB San Francisco and Loretta J. Mester of Cleveland. Both anticipate three rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, although they emphasised there is no immediate need for these adjustments.

The anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy has been the primary driver behind gold’s significant 11% price increase this year, demonstrating substantial gains for what is typically considered a conservative investment. However, this optimism is somewhat tempered by the current US economic data, which presents a complex backdrop for the timing of these expected rate cuts.

Investors and market watchers are now eagerly awaiting remarks from the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook soon.

Precious metals traditionally benefit in low-interest-rate environments since they do not offer yields like interest-bearing assets. This dynamic underscores the current rally in gold and silver prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart analysis: the XAU/USD pair has corrected to 2230.00 USD and initiated a new upward wave targeting 2379.80 USD. Following this target, a correction towards 2270.00 USD is anticipated before the price potentially moves towards 2430.00 USD. The MACD indicator, with its signal line well above zero and trending upward, supports this bullish scenario.

H1 chart analysis: on the H1 chart, XAU/USD has experienced a growth wave, reaching 2266.80 USD, with the market updating this peak today. A consolidation phase around this level is expected, with a breakout potentially leading to a further rise to 2310.73 USD and possibly extending towards 2379.80 USD. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80 and poised to drop to 50 before rising again, aligns with this forecast.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
02 Apr

Natural gas prices rise amid production cuts. US stock indices under pressure from rising government bond yields

By JustMarkets

At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.60%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.11%. Stocks on Monday initially found support on the dovish PCE price deflator report for February released last Friday. But the broader market gave up early gains after bond yields jumped on the back of a stronger-than-expected US ISM manufacturing index. The report was hawkish for Fed policy and could delay an expected Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, strong chip maker stocks raised tech stocks on Monday and kept the NASDAQ Index (US100) in positive territory.

Alphabet (GOOGL) closed at a record high (+3%) after agreeing to delete web browsing data collected from users of its Chrome browser to settle a class action lawsuit that alleged the company tracked people without their knowledge.

In Canada, the S&P manufacturing PMI remained relatively stable in March, marking the eleventh consecutive month of contraction in activity in the sector. However, crude oil prices supported the loonie, helped by the prospect of foreign exchange inflows from Canada’s top exports.

Equity markets in Europe did not trade yesterday due to the Easter holiday.

WTI crude oil prices are trading near 5-month highs at 83 dollars per barrel as investors await the joint OPEC+ ministerial meeting this week. OPEC+ has pledged to extend production cuts through June, which could lead to supply cuts during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere.

US natural gas prices rose more than 4% on Monday to above $1.8/mmbtu amid continued production declines and forecasts that demand next week will be higher than previously expected. Gas production declined to an average of 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, down from 104.8 bcfd in February, as several energy companies, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, postponed well completions and curtailed other drilling activity.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 1.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.91% by Monday’s close, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.99%. Optimism about the Chinese economy is supporting equities after the Caixin Mar China Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 to 51.1, the highest level in 13 months, and surpassed the 50.0 mark, which indicates the economy is expanding for the fifth month, the longest streak in more than two years.

Australia’s stock market fell by 0.11% on Tuesday after briefly hitting another record high in the morning session. This was led by a drop in US futures as sentiment on US interest rates may shift to a hawkish path amid a resilient economy. In Australia’s domestic market, job advertisements fell for the second straight month in March, while minutes from the central bank’s meeting last month showed policymakers can neither rule in nor rule out future monetary rate changes as uncertainty in the domestic economy persists. In addition, the politicians noted that concerns about the outlook for steel demand have impacted iron ore prices, reducing the earnings of Australian exporters.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,243.77 −10.58 (−0.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,566.85 −240.52 (−0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 18,492.49 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,952.62 0 (0%)

USD Index 104.97 +0.43 (+0.41%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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