Archive for Financial News – Page 3

COPPER: Traders getting ready for publication of important statistics in China

By IFCMarkets

Traders are getting ready for the publication of important statistics in China

Last week positive macroeconomic data was published in China. Will the Copper quotations grow?

China consumes about half of all copper produced in the world. According to the Chinese General Administration of Customs, in March of this year, 1.77 million tons of copper ore were imported into the country, which is 10.6% more than the same month in 2018. Generally the data on Chinese foreign trade for March 2019 was very positive. The trade surplus was $ 32.6 billion, which is much better than the preliminary forecast of $ 5.7 billion. Another positive factor was the increase in lending in RMB in March to 1.69 trillion yuan, with a forecast of 1.2 trillion. yuan This Wednesday, on April 17, the data on China’s industrial production and retail sales for March will be published early in the morning, also will be published important GDP data for the first quarter of this year. If the data turns out to be positive, it may increase the demand for copper. According to forecasts, Chinese GDP growth will slow to a 27-year low and will be 6.3%. For the entire 2018 the Chinese economy grew by 6.6%. According to the government’s forecast, in 2019 its growth will slow down a bit and will be 6.2%.

Copper

On the daily timeframe, Copper: D1 broke up the resistance line of the medium-term neutral trend and forms a new uptrend in the form of a triangle. Various technical analysis indicators show an uptrend. Further growth of quotations is possible in case of publication of positive macroeconomic statistics in China.

  • The Parabolic Indicator demonstrates and uptrend signal.
  • The Bollinger Bands narrowed,which indicates the volatility decrease. The bottom line of Bollinger has a slope up.
  • The RSI Indicator is above 50. No divergences observed.
  • The MACD Indicator shows an uptrend signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case if Copper will exceed the last two upper fractals, a maximum since June 2018 and the upper Bollinger line: 2.99. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last 4 lower fractals, the Parabolic signal and the bottom Bollinger line: 2.83. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop following the Bollinger Bands and Parabolic to the next fractal minimum.Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (2,83), without reaching the order (2,99), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Buy
Buy stop Above 2,99
Stop loss Below 2,83

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Gold Prices Down On Dollar Comeback

By Orbex

King Dollar Returns

Over the European morning on Tuesday, the US dollar strengthened, with the index recovering some of the lost ground of recent days to trade back up to 96.70 last. Looking ahead to today’s US session, we have industrial and manufacturing production for March, both of which are forecast to have increased from the prior month.

Stronger USD Weighs on EUR

EURUSD was back under pressure again today, despite an upbeat ZEW eurozone economic sentiment survey reading, as the resurgent US dollar weighed on price. EUR has been held down over recent months due to growing concerns for the health of the eurozone economy. EURUSD remains in the lower end of the 1.12 – 1.14 range with pressure building to the downside.

Better Data Fails To Lift GBP

GBPUSD has ground to a halt over the last couple of weeks with price currently trading 1.3083, right in the middle of the last week’s range. The latest earnings and employment data, which showed unemployment remaining at 3.9% and wage growth remaining at 3.4%, failed to boost prices today as political uncertainty keeps flows constricted.

Equities Keep on Rising

Risk appetite has continued to build this week with equities prices storming higher. The SPX500 has traded up to 2914.78 last, levels not seen since September last year as the index’s impressive recovery continues to hurtle back towards all-time highs. Positive headlines around the prospect of a US/China trade deal are driving much of the gains so incoming updates on that front will be key to near term price action.

Safe Havens Mixed

Interesting trading among the safe havens today with gold down against the dollar while JPY is stronger. A resurgent US dollar and better equity prices have taken the wind out of gold’s sails over the last week. Price is now just shy of retesting the 1280.58 support level. However, JPY has traded higher today, with USDJPY pulling back from the 112.16 level resistance. The rally in JPY comes despite BOJ’s Kuroda reaffirming the BOJ’s dovish stance in Parliament and likely reflects the fact that the market feels the BOJ has no tools left to move JPY lower.

Traders Waiting on Oil Reports

Crude oil remains weaker again today, extending declines from last week following a bearish report from the EIA. The report highlighted a further, unexpected build in US crude stocks along with a forecast for higher US crude production. The market now waits for the API inventories report later today followed by the EIA’s latest update tomorrow. 61.89 remains the key support in crude for now.

Commodity Currencies Down On Weaker Oil

Softness in oil prices along with a resurgence in USD has been clearly visible in USDCAD with the pair trading up above the 1.3377 level as price tested last week’s highs of 1.3402. A further bearish report from the EIA today could see USDCAD making bigger upside moves over the coming days.

AUDUSD has also been under pressure today despite optimism around a US-China trade deal. Weakness in oil prices along with a stronger US Dollar has given buyers ammunition to take price back down to .7145 last as the pair reversed just shy of testing the .72 level resistance.

By Orbex

 

UK Earnings & Employment Data Remain Firm Despite Brexit Woes

By Orbex

Unemployment Rate Remains At Lows

Today, the Office for National Statistics released the latest UK earnings and employment data. It highlighted resilience in labor market conditions despite the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit. UK unemployment remained unchanged at 3.9% in the three months to February, the lowest reading since November 1974.

This was below the forecasted 4% and was driven by a 76.1% employment rate, which was higher than the 75.4% figure recorded a year earlier. This employment rate is now the joint-highest recorded figure. The economic activity rate came in at 20.7%, lower than the prior year’s 21.2% reading. This marked the joint-lowest recorded figure.

Wage Growth Remains Firm

Earnings data was also upbeat. Average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) remained unchanged at 3.4%. This was in line with expectations. The figure including bonuses rose to 3.5%, again, in line with expectations.

This data makes for a frustrating reading for the Bank of England. It serves as even further evidence of economic strength in the UK. However, the current Brexit uncertainty means that the bank is unable to proceed with the tightening program which it has said is its preferred path.

Recent data has shown unemployment hitting its lowest levels since the 1970s. And wage growth is rising at its fastest pace in a decade. Meanwhile, inflation has recently risen again, unexpectedly.

At the BOE’s latest meeting, policymakers said that the “possibility of further cliff-edge uncertainties that could have a significant effect on [business] spending as any new deadline approached”.

The BOE stated that if Brexit can pass smoothly with a deal agreed in parliament, then further rate increases would likely be necessary. However, the bank also warned that if the UK does not reach an agreement and leaves without a deal, then an emergency rate cut could be warranted.

Ultimately, the BOE explained:

“The economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of EU withdrawal.”

Brexit Deadline Extended to October

This is a strange time for UK politics. We should currently be approaching the first month of the UK being out of the EU considering the original March 29th exit date. However, following a temporary extension to April 12th and a subsequent request for a further extension, the UK is currently not due to leave the EU until October 31st.

While many have welcomed the extension with relief, we have not seen much movement in GBP. It remains very clear to traders that the political gridlock stopping a deal from happening has a long way to go before being resolved. As such, the market is closely monitoring headlines around Brexit. However, given the level of false hopes and false starts, it will now take something concrete to cause a significant shift in price action.

Technical Perspective

uk100

While news of a longer Brexit extension has not seen much upside action in GBP, UK equities have enjoyed a different reaction. The UK100 is now once again challenging 2019 highs around the 7479.3 level, having once again broken above the bearish trend line from last year’s highs. The UK is retaining access to the single market, for now, meaning there is no need for investors to move capital. And with the BOE on hold, for now, UK equities have the green light for higher prices. Above the 7479.3 level, the next resistance level to watch is the 7555.3 level. Any retracement lower from here should find support at the 7363.3 level.

By Orbex

 

EU Economic Sentiment Expected To Return To Positive Territory

By Orbex

German Institutions More Confident Than Before 

The ZEW independent institute will be releasing Germany’s economic sentiment today. The indicator is projected to cross above the zero barrier. This comes after a depressing period of 12 months where it recorded negative numbers.

The projection follows an array of four better-than-expected releases. However, it’s still miles away from the average of 22.2 points.

Significant improvements show that institutional investors and analysts are less pessimistic about the state of Germany’s economy than they were before.

German ZEW Recorded -3.6 Points in March

We had not seen a figure like this since April 2018. While downside risks from Britain’s withdrawal from Europe deteriorated, US-China negotiations showed notable progress among financial markets. And that supported sentiment in Germany, and to a lesser degree, Europe.

Stepping into Q2 2019, Germany points to a relatively stronger growth as medium-term (6-month) economic expectations appreciate.

Considering the optimistic figures seen from last December and up to the end of Q1, the data is likely to jump to positive territory. However, a level of 0.9 may be considered as relatively optimistic as the economic conditions in Europe remain weak.

GERZEW

1.German VS. Euro Area ZEW

Expectations Showing Optimism

There are also forecasts for the ZEW indicator for the euro area to cross over to positive territory. Euro area ZEW marked an April 2018 high at -2.5.

Although the euro area projections are more optimistic compared to the German forecasts, the results since last December haven’t been nearly as good as in Germany. Besides the miss in January, the divergence between expected and actual is marginal. This is especially true when excluding March numbers.

Europe recorded an average of -13.3 in Q2 2019 while Germany recorded an average of -10.6 points. When looking at the divergence between actual and projected numbers too, Europe recorded a 4.46 point improvement per month in Q2. However, Germany marked a 3.96, numerically validating the more optimistic Europe.

German data also show that, on average, the indicator improved 4.63 points per month in 2019. However, the same test indicates that euro area sentiment advanced only by 1.13 month on month.

Euro area expectations of 1.2 may be too optimistic. When coupled with the leading German ZEW as the driver of Europe’s economic sentiment, an overshadowed EU figure will most likely have no effect on the FX markets.

We must all pay close attention to the German data!

By Orbex

 

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 16.04.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is still trading close to the support level and forming Hammer, Doji, and Inverted Hammer reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, at the moment it may be assumed that after finishing its sideways movement and testing the level, the instrument may resume moving to the upside.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is still trading close to the resistance level and forming Shooting Star and Hanging Man reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, at the moment it may be assumed that after completing the correction the instrument may continue its ascending tendency.

USDJPY

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 16.04.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7147; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.7130 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7245. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7090. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7015.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6756; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.6765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6655. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6805. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6900.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3382; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 1.3355 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3505. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.3315. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3215. After breaking the upside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing above 1.3420, the price may continue moving upwards.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.04.16

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13032
  • Open: 1.13031
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.02
  • Day’s range: 1.12927 – 1.13119
  • 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

At the moment, the euro has become stable after the rally last week. A unidirectional trend is not observed. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before important economic releases coming later this week. Local support and resistance levels are still 1.12900 and 1.13200, respectively. The EUR/USD quotes have the potential for further growth. Donald Trump сriticized the Fed again, which puts additional pressure on the US currency. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

The News Feed on 16.04.2019:

  • – German ZEW economic sentiment index at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
  • – Industrial production in the US at 16:15 (GMT+3:00).
EUR/USD

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.12900, 1.12750, 1.12500
  • Resistance levels: 1.13200, 1.13500, 1.14000

If the price fixes above the level of 1.13200, further growth of the EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.13500-1.13800.

An alternative may be the decrease of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.12700-1.12500.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.30722
  • Open: 1.30883
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.13
  • Day’s range: 1.30753 – 1.31015
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

The British pound is being traded in a protracted flat. The technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors expect up-to-date information on the Brexit issue. On Monday British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said that negotiations between the government and the opposition Labour Party were proceeding progressively and constructively. Local support and resistance levels are still 1.30650 and 1.31000, respectively. Positions should be opened from these marks.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00) a report on the labor market will be published in the UK.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located near the 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.30650, 1.30350, 1.30000
  • Resistance levels: 1.31000, 1.31300, 1.31550

If the price fixes above the round level of 1.31000, the GBP/USD currency pair is expected to grow. The movement is tending to 1.31300-1.31500.

An alternative may be a drop in the GBP/USD quotes to 1.30400-1.30200.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Registration The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.33304
  • Open: 1.33662
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.22
  • Day’s range: 1.33662 – 1.34029
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

Yesterday’s trading on the USD/CAD currency pair was very active. Aggressive purchases were observed in the trading instrument. The USD/CAD quotes have reached monthly highs. At the moment, Loonie is consolidating near the round level of 1.34000. The 1.33750 mark is the nearest support. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of oil prices. Positions should be opened from the key levels.

Today, the news feed on the economy of Canada is rather calm.

USD/CAD

Indicators indicate the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.33750, 1.33500, 1.33350
  • Resistance levels: 1.34000, 1.34500

If the price fixes above the round level of 1.34000, further growth of the USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.34400-1.34600.

An alternative may be the correction of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.33600-1.33450.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 111.961
  • Open: 112.019
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.07
  • Day’s range: 111.853 – 112.045
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

The USD/JPY currency pair has become stable near annual highs. At the moment, quotes are consolidating. Local support and resistance levels are 111.800 and 112.000, respectively. In the near future technical correction is not excluded. US President Donald Trump criticized the Fed’s policy again, which puts additional pressure on the US currency. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

During the Asian trading session, weak data on economic activity in the services sector have been published in Japan.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is located near the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 111.800, 111.600, 111.450
  • Resistance levels: 112.000, 112.400, 112.600

If the price fixes above 112.100, further growth of the USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 112.500-112.700.

An alternative may be the correction of the USD/JPY currency pair to 111.600-111.450.

by JustForex

The US Dollar Is Still Under Pressure

by JustForex

The US dollar shows multidirectional dynamics relative to the basket of major currencies. The pressure on the American currency is put by the statements of the US President regarding the Fed policy. So, Donald Trump believes that the US central bank slows down the economic growth of the country. He wrote in his Twitter: “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation.” The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session with a slight decrease (-0.04%).

The Australian dollar weakened after the publication of the minutes of the RBA’s monetary policy meeting. The regulator believes that lower interest rates would be “appropriate” if inflation remains low and the unemployment rate continues to rise. The British pound holds the mark of $1.31. British Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced that the country will prepare for a “tough” Brexit in October. However, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, urges not to hurry with hasty decisions, despite the fact that everyone is already exhausted because of the uncertainty around Brexit.

The “black gold” prices continue to fall. At the moment, the WTI crude oil futures are testing the mark of $63.20 per barrel. At 23:30 (GMT+3:00) a report on crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, multidirectional dynamics was observed on the US stock market: #SPY (-0.07%), #DIA (-0.10%), #QQQ (+ 0.02%).

The yield of 10-year US government bonds is at the level of 2.55-2.56%.

The news feed for 2019.04.16:

– Data on the labor market in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
– The ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– The industrial production volume in the United States at 16:15 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

EURUSD: bulls ready for new highs

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

On Monday the 15th of April, trading on the euro closed slightly down. The pair dropped to 1.1298, slipping further to 1.1293 in Tuesday’s Asian session. As I see it, this was a technical correction.

General negativity in the US session was caused by the Canadian dollar, which suffered a steep decline after the publication of the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey for Q1. Following this report, the BoC is unlikely to raise interest rates in the coming meetings.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:30 UK: ILO unemployment rate (Feb), claimant count change (Mar), average earnings (Feb).
  • 12:00 Germany: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Apr).
  • 15:30 Canada: manufacturing shipments (Feb), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Feb), foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Feb).
  • 16:15 US: industrial production (Mar).
  • 16:50 Eurozone: ECB’s Novotny speech.
  • 17:00 US: NAHB housing market index (Apr).
  • 21:00 US: Fed’s Kaplan speech.
  • 23:30 US: API weekly crude oil stock.

EURUSD H1

Current situation:

The euro underwent a correction, but failed to reach 1.1285. This is a good sign for the bulls, as we could see the start of a new rally from the balance line. The hourly indicators have unloaded, so the bulls are preparing to revisit the 1.1324 high.

The pair is hovering around the 67th degree within the downwards channel. The channel is formed from three levels: 1.1324, 1.1293, and 1.1321. The support has shifted to 1.1292. The pair shouldn’t revisit 1.1290. If the Asian low is revisited, I’d advise holding off on opening any long positions. A sustained flat around the trend line and the 1.1282/90 range will lead to a subsequent drop to 1.1270.

Dollar Muted As Equities Rally Ease Off

By Orbex

The US dollar closed Monday’s session unchanged as earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Citi Group missed expectations, blaming the US economy.

Risk appetite turned to neutral mode following light trading, allowing equities investors to take a breather before increasing bets – either before or after Easter break.

Euro Bulls Fail As All Eyes Shift To German ZEW

EURUSD bulls attempted to break to fresh highs on Monday but failed as they stumbled upon a big psychological resistance at $1.13. With a muted dollar, a light calendar and a relatively slow start to the week, euro traders decided to trade small. Right now, they are patiently waiting for the critical ZEW economic data due to be released. Analysts expect German and euro area sentiment to leave recessionary levels after a depressing period of over one year.

Rejected At $1.13, A Deeper Correction Is Now Possible

It has been a good run for the EURUSD since the double bottom down at $1.1180. Euro rode 140 pips in an impulse move to the upside and received a rejection as the 1.618 Fibo extension at $1.1322 and the upper channel trendline rejection weighed prices down. Since then, the popular pair started correcting down to $1.1289 with the first leg (A to B) suggesting a deeper correction towards $1.1269, or lower.

Aussie Slips Lower On Dovish Comments From RBA Minutes

AUDUSD started the week on a similar note to EURUSD but overnight trading amid RBA’s minutes pushed the currency pair 0.4 percent down. Tuesday’s flows started coming through after the central bank said that since inflation remained stubbornly neutral and unemployment rose a “decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate”

Bearish Push Now Supported From Fundamentals Too

Aussie bulls had a go at the last upside move near $0.72 last week and failed. Monday’s attempt was even more piteous. With a confluence between the long-term descending trendline (yellow) and the short-term ascending trendline (red) weighing in on prices, the currency pair could head lower towards the golden ratio near 71c. barrier. However, a downside break outside the short-term ascending channel must take place first.

WTI Marginally Lower On News Around Production Cut Deal

Crude oil fell on Monday despite Libya’s production remaining under threat and regardless of tightening supplies. Russia’s minister, Anton Siluanov, hinted at a market share fight between Russia and OPEC, against the United States. The Russian finance minister’s comments indicated that the production cut deal may be abandoned in order to allow prices to fall. That would “shrink” American output.

Oil Could Correct, But No one Knows Where To

The prices of crude oil also saw a rejection near a psychological level. Bears stepped in just before the $65 per barrel barrier and caused a short-term correction that could lead prices further down. In the unlikely scenario that the middle trendline (red) holds, WTI would most likely move higher either for a double top of continuation of the bullish trend. However, a slide down to the lower trendline of the ascending channel (grey) is also possible in the short-term.

By Orbex