Archive for Financial News – Page 3

Canada holds rate, trims QE and to focus on long bonds

By www.CentralBankNews.info

Canada’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate steady but will reduce its purchases of bonds and focus on buying more longer-term bonds so the net effect is there is no reduction in the level of monetary stimulus, which it confirmed will continue until the economic recovery is well underway.
     The Bank of Canada (BOC) left its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25 percent, unchanged since it was slashed three times in March by a total of 150 basis points to what it considers the “effective lower bound.”
      Along with the rate cuts, BOC in March also began buying C$5 billion of government securities a week in the secondary market across a wide range of maturities.
      Today the bank’s council said it would gradually reduce these purchases to $4 billion a week and recalibrate its quantitative easing (QE) program toward longer-term bonds that have a more direct influence on the borrowing rates that a most important for households and businesses.
     “The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before,” BOC said, reiterating its guidance that it will keep the policy rate at the effective lower bound until the 2.0 percent inflation target is reached.
     The decision comes against a backdrop of an upward revision of the bank’s growth forecast for this year to a contraction of 5.7 percent compared with an earlier forecast of a 7.8 percent decline due to a stronger-than-expected rebound in the summer.
      But growth in the fourth quarter is expected to slow markedly due to rising COVID-19 cases as the economy’s transition to what BOC said was a “more moderate recuperation phase,” with growth continuing to rely heavily on policy support.
     BOC lowered its 2021 growth forecast to 4.2 percent from 5.1 percent but maintained the 2022 forecast for growth of 3.7 percent. But in light of the long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the estimate for Canada’s potential growth rate was revised down.
     Canada’s inflation rate rose to 0.5 percent in September from 0.1 percent in the previous two months but is expected to remain below the bank’s target range of 1.0 to 3.0 percent until early 2021, mainly due to lower energy prices.
      BOC forecast headline inflation of an unchanged 0.6 percent this year, 1.0 percent in 2021 and 1.7 percent in 2022, below 2019’s 1.9 percent.
     The Bank of Canada issued the following statement and an opening statement by its governor, Tiff Macklem:

“The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank is recalibrating the QE program to shift purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have more direct influence on the borrowing rates that are most important for households and businesses. At the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week. The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.

The global and Canadian economic outlooks have evolved largely as anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report(MPR), with rapid expansions as economies reopened giving way to slower growth, despite considerable remaining excess capacity. Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infections are likely to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries, and growth will continue to rely heavily on policy support.

In the United States, GDP growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably. China’s economic output is back to pre-pandemic levels and its recovery continues to broaden. Emerging-market economies have been hit harder, especially those with severe outbreaks. The recovery in Europe is slowing amid mounting lockdowns. Overall, global GDP is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020 before growing by just over 4 ½ percent, on average, in 2021–22.

Oil prices remain about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, non-energy commodity prices, on average, have more than fully recovered. Despite continued low oil prices, the Canadian dollar has appreciated since July, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar.

In Canada, the rebound in employment and GDP was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer. The economy is now transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase. In the fourth quarter, growth is expected to slow markedly, due in part to rising COVID-19 case numbers. The economic effects of the pandemic are highly uneven across sectors and are particularly affecting low-income workers. Recognizing these challenges, governments have extended and modified business and income support programs.

After a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence. Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation was at 0.5 percent in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.

As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023. The Bank is continuing its QE program and recalibrating it as described above. The program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.”

Opening statement by Governor Tiff Macklem:

“Good morning. Thank you for joining Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and me to discuss today’s policy announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

Our main message today is that it will take quite some time for the economy to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Bank of Canada will keep providing monetary stimulus to support the economy through the recovery.

Before turning to your questions, let me say a few words about our policy discussions.

Obviously, the Governing Council spent a lot of time discussing the current status of the pandemic and its impact on our economy. Simply put, things really depend on how the pandemic evolves. We are basing our outlook on some particular assumptions about the virus.

We assume authorities won’t need to reinstate the sort of extensive and widespread containment measures we saw in the spring. But we can expect successive waves of the virus to require localized and targeted restrictions. The need for these restrictions will ebb and flow, and gradually diminish over time. We are assuming that vaccines and effective treatments will be widely available by the middle of 2022. Finally, we expect that the fallout from the pandemic will have some long-lasting effects on future economic growth.

Since the spring, we have developed a better understanding of the economic effects of containment measures and the impact of the government support programs. With this, and the recognition that the virus is going to be with us for some time, the Governing Council decided to go back to our normal practice of giving a projection for growth and inflation in the MPR. That said, let me stress that the projection is highly conditional on our assumptions about the virus.

As expected, the Canadian economy bounced back in the third quarter as many businesses reopened. In fact, the rebound was a little stronger than we had anticipated at the time of the July MPR, but we are still over 700,000 jobs below our pre-pandemic level of employment. To put that in perspective, peak job losses in the Great Recession a little more than a decade ago were about 425,000.

The current job losses are concentrated in service sectors, particularly in lower-wage jobs where physical distancing is difficult. This is why the income support programs put in place have been so important for the recovery. They have protected the most vulnerable and supported household spending, which has helped to underpin the recovery in consumption. Housing activity also rebounded sharply in the third quarter as sales made up ground that was lost in the containment phase.

But outside of household and government spending, the economy has struggled. Investment and exports have increased but are still weighed down by uncertainty and weak demand. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has been a bit stronger than we assumed in July, despite continued low oil prices.

The Governing Council agreed the very rapid growth of the reopening phase is now over and we are in the slower-growth recuperation phase. We expect fourth-quarter growth to be just barely positive—weaker than previously expected due to the resurgence in COVID-19 infections. For 2020 as a whole, we expect that the economy will have shrunk by about 5 1/2 percent.

Looking out to 2021 and 2022, we are projecting annual growth to average almost 4 percent, with household spending leading the way. But we expect this growth to be uneven across sectors and choppy over time. Some parts of the economy will simply be unable to completely reopen until a vaccine is widely available, so sectors will recover at very different speeds. Moreover, as infection rates fluctuate, economic activity will continue to be affected by containment measures as well as consumer and business caution. We expect business investment to remain weak as uncertainty persists and exports to grow only slowly. When we add it up, the Governing Council projects that the economy will still be operating below its potential into 2023.

Let’s now turn to inflation—our mandated goal. The most recent CPI inflation data came in at 0.5 percent, and it’s expected to stay below our 1 to 3 percent target range until early next year. After that, it is projected to rise gradually, but stay below 2 percent throughout the projection horizon.

The Governing Council also spent a fair bit of time discussing longer-term issues. We know the pandemic is reducing investment and is likely to cause long-lasting damage to some people’s job prospects. These forces will reduce Canada’s economic potential. We have substantially marked down our estimate for Canada’s potential growth to about 1 percent a year through 2023.

I explained earlier how our outlook is highly conditional on assumptions about the virus. Beyond these, it is also subject to several important risks. For example, it’s possible that consumption could be stronger than expected if households quickly reverse the buildup in savings they have accumulated since the start of the pandemic. In contrast, an economic setback could lead to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, further slowing both growth and inflation.

The Governing Council sees the risks around the projection to be roughly balanced. But it’s important to remember that we are operating at the effective lower bound for our policy interest rate and inflation is well below target. So, we are particularly focused on the downside risks to our projection.

Given the outlook, the Governing Council agreed that extraordinary monetary policy support will continue to be needed. Accordingly, we will continue to hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this takes us into 2023.

We are providing exceptional forward guidance combined with a full economic projection to provide as much clarity as we can to Canadians in an environment of considerable uncertainty.

Our forward guidance is being reinforced and supplemented by our quantitative easing (QE) program. We are recalibrating our program of government bond purchases, and I want to take a moment to explain what we are doing and why.

At the outset of the pandemic, our bond purchases were focused on restoring orderly market conditions, and we concentrated on buying bonds with shorter maturities where issuance was strongest. Now that markets are functioning well and the yields on shorter maturity bonds are well anchored by our forward guidance, we can concentrate more of our bond purchases at longer maturities. Shifting our purchases to longer-maturity bonds increases the amount of monetary stimulus provided per dollar purchased. That’s because it focuses more directly on the borrowing rates that are most relevant for households and businesses.

Given the expected impact from buying more longer-term bonds, the Governing Council judges that, as we gradually reduce our total weekly bond purchases from at least $5 billion to a minimum of $4 billion, our QE program will continue to provide at least as much stimulus as before. This recalibration of the program will increase its effectiveness.

The QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

With that, Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I will now be happy to take your questions.”

www.CentralBankNews.info

Titans Of Industry interview

By TheTechnicalTraders

Chris joins the Wealth Research Group to discuss hot sectors and those that are lagging. A case can be made for the price of Gold stalling if a huge stimulus package comes forth as a rally in the stock market usually results in money moving out of Gold and to Stocks. However, a large stimulus package may also put pressure on the Dollar from a longer-term perspective, making Gold a more attractive asset. This could result in a situation where both Gold and Equities climb, similar to what we saw with Bonds climbing with Equities in January and February.

CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO WATCH THE VIDEO

LEARN MORE ABOUT CHRIS’S LONG-TERM SIGNALS AND SWING TRADE STRATEGIES AT TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 28.10.2020 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after reaching 61.8% fibo, GBPUSD has started moving downwards. This reversal and the decline that followed may be considered as a short-term pullback. After completing it, the asset is highly likely to resume growing to reach 76.0% fibo at 1.3288 and then the high at 1.3482. However, there is another scenario that implies further decline to break the low at 1.2675.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction. After attempting to test 38.2% fibo at 1.2985, the first descending wave is trying to transform into a sideways channel. If the price breaks this channel to the downside, the instrument may resume falling towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2926 and 1.2867 respectively. However, if the instrument breaks the resistance at 1.3177, the correction will be over.

GBPUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the previous rising wave has failed to break the local high and continue the uptrend. At the moment, the asset is trading downwards to break the low at 122.38 and may later continue falling to reach 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 122.28 and 121.18 respectively.

EURJPY_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair has broken 76.0% fibo. In the future, the instrument is expected to break the low at 122.38 and then continue falling towards 61.8% fibo at 122.28.

EURJPY_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 28.10.2020

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 1.1838 along with another descending wave towards 1.1768, EURUSD is expected to consolidate above the latter level. Possibly, the pair may correct to test 1.1820 from below and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1682.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating around 1.3040. Possibly, today the pair may fall to reach 1.3003 and then grow towards 1.3080. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside to resume falling and break 1.2939. Later, the market may continue trading within the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.2777.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After forming the consolidation range above 76.00 and breaking it to the upside, USDRUB is expected to grow towards 77.44 and may later resume moving inside the downtrend to reach 76.70, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the descending structure at 104.40 and breaking this level to the downside, USDJPY is expected to continue moving downwards with the short-term target at 103.83. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 104.40 and test it from below.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the ascending structure at 0.9098, USDCHF is consolidating below this level. Today, the pair may break the range to the upside and reach the short-term target at 0.9137. Later, the market may start another correction to test 0.9098 from below and then resume trading within the uptrend to reach 0.9166.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.7124 without any particular direction. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 0.7150 and then resume falling to break 0.7094. After that, the instrument may continue moving within the downtrend with the target at 0.7050.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

After completing the ascending structure and testing 41.80 from below, Brent is moving downwards to break 40.50. Later, the market may continue falling towards 39.50 and then start a new correction to return to 41.80.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1903.00. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 1913.50 and then form a new descending structure to break 1897.80, Later, the market may continue trading within the downtrend with the short-term target at 1872.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing another ascending structure at 13500.00 and forming the consolidation range above this level, BTCUSD has broken the range to the upside. Possibly, the asset may continue moving upwards to reach 14000.00 or even extend this structure up to 14250.00. After that, the instrument may start another correction with the target at 13000.00.

BITCOIN
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

After rebounding from 3418.1 to the downside, the S&P index is expected to resume moving within the downtrend to reach 3335.3. Later, the market may correct towards 3400.0 and then start a new decline with the short-term target at 3275.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2020.10.28

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.18085
  • Open: 1.17869
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.11
  • Day’s range: 1.17431 – 1.17880
  • 52 wk range: 1.0637 – 1.2012

EUR/USD quotes have been declining. The trading instrument has updated local lows. The demand for risky assets has weakened amid the rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and the upcoming US presidential election. Investors expect the ECB meeting on October 29th. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating in the range of 1.1740-1.1785. The euro has the potential for further decline. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

Today, the news feed is quite calm.

EUR/USD

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1740, 1.1700
  • Resistance levels: 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1840

If the price fixes below 1.1740, a further fall in EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.1700.

An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1820-1.1840.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.30192
  • Open: 1.30421
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.15
  • Day’s range: 1.29633 – 1.30634
  • 52 wk range: 1.1409 – 1.3516

Sales prevail on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound has updated local lows. At the moment, GBP/USD quotes are testing the level of 1.2965. The 1.3015 mark is already a “mirror” resistance. The demand for greenback has strengthened. The trading instrument has the potential for further decline. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The publication of important UK economic releases is not planned.

GBP/USD

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram has started declining, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell GBP/USD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2965, 1.2920, 1.2870
  • Resistance levels: 1.3015, 1.3055, 1.3080

If the price fixes below 1.2965, a further drop in GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.2900.

An alternative could be the growth of GBP/USD quotes to 1.3050-1.3080.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32078
  • Open: 1.31859
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.17
  • Day’s range: 1.31792 – 1.32446
  • 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4669

The USD/CAD currency pair has been growing again. Quotes have updated local highs. Currently, the loonie is consolidating in the range of 1.3220-1.3245. The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to the negative dynamics of oil prices. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before today’s Bank of Canada meeting. Experts agree that the regulator will keep the key marks of monetary policy unchanged. Positions should be opened from key levels.

At 16:00 (GMT+2:00), the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the key interest rate.

USD/CAD

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which gives a signal to buy USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3220, 1.3195, 1.3170
  • Resistance levels: 1.3245, 1.3300

If the price fixed above 1.3245, further growth in USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.3300.

An alternative could be a decline in the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3190-1.3170.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 104.840
  • Open: 104.470
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.40
  • Day’s range: 104.158 – 104.556
  • 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to show a negative trend. The trading instrument has updated monthly lows. The demand for safe assets has grown significantly. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are testing the level of 104.15. The level of 104.40 is already a “mirror” resistance. The yen has the potential for further growth against the greenback. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed for Japan’s economy is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 104.15, 104.00, 103.70
  • Resistance levels: 104.40, 104.55, 104.65

If the price fixes below 104.15, a further fall in USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 103.80-103.60.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to 104.60-104.90.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Quiet markets among uncertain backdrop

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime

It’s a rather mixed market in this afternoon’s session which is perhaps to be expected ahead of the huge risk event next week across the pond. After yesterday’s deep selloff in risk assets yesterday, stocks are a touch softer today, bonds are firmer and there’s a bid for JPY, which we looked at this morning.

The Dollar is modestly weaker against its G10 peers while the ‘commodollars’ are better bid. With stimulus talks on the backburner, the incumbent is not seeing any late surge in polling support that propelled him into the Oval Office this time four years ago. A contested outcome nags at the back of many minds but Joe Biden is still out in front in both national polls and more importantly, the swing states which will determine the next commander-in-chief.

More immediately, the pandemic is occupying the market and the tough winter months ahead, especially in Europe. Volatility is creeping higher and the risk environment remains delicate, even if we know the prospects for fiscal relief are very high after the election .We’ve had mixed news on the data front to add to this uncertainty with US consumer confidence disappointing, while durable goods figures continue to show improvements in business investments with the headline figures rising for the fifth straight month.

Gold coiling, waiting for catalyst

The yellow metal continues to struggle for direction, trading in a tight range over the past few weeks. Last weeks move higher was capped by the previous high at $1933 but prices remain well supported by the 100-day Moving Average now just below $1900 and the six-month uptrend support line.

With momentum indicators firmly in neutral mode, we await the trigger for a break. What we know for certain is that the more prices trade in a tight range and contract, the more the breakout will be expansive!

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Bullish Yen through year-end

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Since the end of August, the Japanese Yen has strengthened against all of its G10 peers, indicating that markets are paring back their risk exposures. And the options market suggests there could be more gains for the JPY as we enter the final stretch of what has certainly been a tumultuous year.

Such expectations are captured in the uptrend evident in the FXTM Japanese Yen index, which reflects the JPY’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, namely the US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and the Swiss Franc, all evenly-weighted. After registering its lowest level since 2019 on August 31st, this index has gained about 3.2 percent and is trading well above its 50-day simple moving average.

Compared to all other G10 currencies, markets appear most bullish on the Japanese Yen for the remainder of the year, judging by the positioning in the 25-delta risk reversals. Investors are well aware that November features major event risks such as the US presidential elections and also the final stretch of post-Brexit trade negotiations, and that both events have the potential to deliver outsized shocks across global markets. Coupled with the troubling resurgence of Covid-19 across the US and Europe, a phenomenon which threatens to derail the global economic recovery, no surprise then that demand for the safe haven Yen has been rising of late.

A rising tide of risk aversion over the coming weeks could see the FXTM JPY index breaking above the 103.317 mark for the first time since June, with a higher high adding further confirmation to its uptrend.

BOJ expected to hold policy rate

Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, although the central bank is expected to leave things unchanged. The second wave of Covid-19 cases in Japan is abating, allowing the country to resume its economic recovery which diminishing the need for more financial support.

Still, any revisions to the BOJ’s GDP and inflation outlooks for fiscal 2020 will be closely monitored to assess the state of the world’s third-largest economy, and any major shift in expectations could be reflected in the JPY’s performance this week.

The downtrend in USDJPY is still very much intact, with the 50-day SMA guiding the currency pair downwards. USDJPY could retest the 104.0 psychological level over the coming days, especially if the US Dollar resumes its weakening bias once there’s more certainty after the US presidential elections.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Seasonality in Gold looks to be favouring Gold bulls

By Admiral Markets

Economic Events October 28, 2020Source: Economic Events October 28, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While Gold is still waiting for impulses and continues to trade around 1,900 USD, tensions are building and sooner than later traders can expect a sharp increase in volatility.

While a potential trigger event is certainly the upcoming US presidential election on the 03rd of November (next Tuesday), it is not guaranteed due to a sharp rise in regards to risk appetite, respectively risk aversion, among market participants.

While Democrats and Republicans have not yet agreed on a deal for an economic relief package, it seems traders should prepare to see Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin come up with an optimistic outlook on continued stimulus talks right after polls are closed on Election Day.

As we already pointed out, a final deal between Democrats and Republicans will potentially fall into a time which is historically known to be bullish for Gold from a seasonal perspective (December/January). This could drive the price of Gold significantly back above 2,000 USD – only with a small delay.

In fact, extending this seasonal view on the yellow metal shows that the current “weakness” in Gold has usually been a good buying opportunity, at least in the time period from October 1986 to now.

Still, we remain cautious in regard to long engagements below 1,975 USD on a daily time-frame, but keep this level in mind since it could be the initial bullish catalyst that drives Gold up to its current yearly and All-Time highs around 2,075 USD or even higher:

Gold Daily chartSource: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between June 12, 2019, to October 27, 2020). Accessed: October 27, 2020, at 10:00 PM GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, and in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that in five years, it was up by 28%.

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Mirati Therapeutics’ Shares Rise 12.5% on Positive Data from Cancer Studies

Source: Streetwise Reports   10/26/2020

Mirati Therapeutics’ shares reached a new 52-week high after the company reported preliminary data for Adagrasib (MRTX849) demonstrated durable anti-tumor activity in its non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer studies.

Microbiology

Mirati Therapeutics Inc. (MRTX:NASDAQ), which is focused on developing a pipeline of targeted oncology products addressing genetic and immunological promoters of cancer, yesterday announced preliminary results from the firm’s ongoing mutant KRAS selective inhibitor programs.

The firm indicated that “the preliminary results included updated clinical data of adagrasib (MRTX849), Mirati Therapeutics’ KRAS G12C inhibitor, presented at the 32nd EORTC-NCI-AACR Symposium on Molecular Targets and Therapeutics (ENA) and initial preclinical in vivo data of MRTX1133, the its selective and potent potential first-in-class KRAS G12D inhibitor.”

The company explained that “Adagrasib is a potent and selective inhibitor of KRAS G12C, optimized for a long half-life and a significant volume of tissue distribution to maintain continuous inhibition of KRAS-dependent signaling for the complete dose interval to maximize efficacy demonstrated by the depth and duration of anti-tumor activity.”

Mirati’s President and CEO Charles M. Baum, M.D., commented, “The adagrasib preliminary data presented today showed deep and durable anti-tumor activity in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), colorectal cancer (CRC) and other solid tumors, providing renewed hope for patients that harbor a KRAS G12C mutation. A 45% confirmed objective response rate for adagrasib as a monotherapy in advanced NSCLC is compelling. While this data is still maturing, adagrasib also demonstrated clinically meaningful duration of treatment for NSCLC patients in the Phase 1/1b cohort…Enrollment is complete in the Phase 2 cohort of adagrasib as a monotherapy treatment for patients in 2nd/3rd line NSCLC and we anticipate submitting a New Drug Application for accelerated approval in the second half of 2021.”

The firm advised that Adagrasib has shown very good tolerability in both monotherapy and combination trials with only a small amount of adverse effects reported in 110 patients harboring a G12C mutation in NSCLC, CRC and other solid tumors in the monotherapy studies. The company stated that more than 50 patients were included in the combination studies of Adagrasib with either pembrolizumab in NSCLC or cetuximab in CRC and TNO-155 in NSCLC or CRC and that each of these combinations has also been well tolerated.

The company also reported an update on the status of data from its preclinical studies of its MRTX1133. The company described MRTX1133 as “a potent, selective and reversible inhibitor of KRAS G12D, that binds to and inhibits mutant KRAS protein in both its active and inactive states.” The firm noted that “MRTX1133 demonstrated tumor regression in multiple in vivo tumor models, including pancreatic and colorectal cancers.”

Dr. Baum added, “MRTX1133, a potential first-in-class compound, continues to advance toward an Investigational New Drug filing in the first half of 2021. The drug properties and antitumor activity we’ve observed in preclinical tumor models continue to show promise.”

Mirati Therapeutics is a late-stage biotechnology company headquartered in San Diego, Calif. The firm concentrates its efforts on researching and discovering new patient treatments that target genetic and immunologic drivers of cancer. The company presently has two programs in process (adagrasib and sitravatinib), that are focused on treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Mirati Therapeutics started off today with a market capitalization of around $8.0 billion with approximately 44.54 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 10.1%. MRTX shares opened nearly 8% higher today at $194.42 (+$14.22, +7.89%) over Friday’s $180.20 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this morning of $211.50. The stock has traded today between $193.01 and $211.50 per share and is currently trading at $203.06 (+$22.86, +12.69%).

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Viktor Orbán’s use and misuse of religion serves as a warning to Western democracies

By Garret Martin, American University School of International Service and Carolyn Gallaher, American University School of International Service

Somewhere in his journey to power in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had a radical religious conversion.

An atheist when he started in politics in the late 1980s, Orbán now calls himself a defender of Christianity. In an August speech commemorating the 1920 Treaty of Trianon – a traumatic event in which Hungary lost much of its territory – Orbán argued that Western Europe had given up on “a Christian Europe” and was choosing instead to experiment with “a godless cosmos, rainbow families, migration and open societies.”

As experts in European politics and the religious right, we argue that Orbán’s embrace of religion has served to consolidate his power, “other” his opponents and shield Hungary from EU criticism of its attacks on the rule of law.

It is also, we believe, a dangerous model for how religion can be used to fuel democratic backsliding.

Consolidating power

In 2014, during an address to the nation, Orbán spoke of building “an illiberal state, a non-liberal state,” in Hungary. While an illiberal state is an ambiguous concept, Orbán praised it as better able to protect Hungary’s national interests and preserve its cohesion. Four years later, his tone had shifted: Hungary was now a “Christian democracy.”

Such a shift is emblematic of Orbán’s career, with its many ideological twists and turns. He has changed his tune on many major issues, from being a firm supporter of European integration to becoming a strong defender of national sovereignty. He has befriended Russian President Vladimir Putin since his return to power in 2010, despite his past anti-Russian stance.

And he renounced his past atheism during the 1990s – a decision that went hand in hand with his courting of religious and conservative voters. According to European politics scholar Charles Gati, “no European leader since Napoleon may have changed his spots more.”

Far from consistently adhering to clear principles, Orbán, according to The Economist, over the years has instead been “dedicated to the accumulation and maintenance of power.”

That ruthlessness grew after Orbán was voted out as prime minister in 2002. Deeply shocked by this turn of events, he vowed not to lose power again if he ever returned to office.

During the 2010 election campaign, Orbán declared that “we need to win only once, but need to win big” – an apparent warning that he would use any large electoral victory to strengthen his position, so not to have to relinquish power. Cynically claiming the mantle of Christian Democracy, according to Princeton scholar Jan-Werner Mueller, became a key tool of his strategy in the following decade to consolidate his grip on Hungarian politics.

Wedge issues at home

Like much of Europe, Hungary is somewhat secular. In the 2011 census, 45% of the population did not list any religious affiliation. Hungary’s communist regime had certainly scorned and discouraged religion for many decades. After the 1989 fall of the Iron Curtain dividing Europe between the communist Eastern bloc and free market West, people did not flock to churches.

Nonetheless, when Orbán returned to power in 2010, he began to rely on religion to mobilize voters. For instance, he framed his harsh anti-immigration policies as a defense of Christianity.

As the Syrian civil war reached a crescendo in 2015, hundreds of thousands of migrants fled the violence. Although most migrants to Europe were trying only to transit through Hungary, Orbán declared that Syrian migrants were trying to invade the country and change its culture and religion. Officials of Orbán’s party, Fidesz, have echoed these claims over the years, suggesting Muslim refugees are trying to impose their culture and establish a caliphate on the continent.

For a country with a history of invasion that stretches from the sacking of cities by Mongols through the Nazi invasion in 1944 and Soviet occupation, the terminology raised fear and unease.

Orbán has also resurrected older anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about Jews and leftists to consolidate his Christian credentials, such as sponsoring exhibits implicitly associating communists with Jews. It has also helped to cement an “us or them” narrative in which opponents of Orbán are “othered.” To do this, Orbán chose billionaire philanthropist George Soros as his major foil.

Soros, who is Jewish, was born in Hungary. He went into hiding during the Holocaust and fled the country once communists took control. After the Iron Curtain fell in 1989, Soros donated millions of dollars to Hungary’s fledgling civil society.

Yet he was easy to demonize for some Hungarians, not only because he was Jewish, but because he had spent most of his adult life outside the country. In the 2019 European Parliament elections, a government tax-funded campaign attacked Soros and then European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, accusing them of using migration plans to undermine Hungary’s security.

The year before, during the 2018 Hungarian elections, Orbán used even more explicit anti-Semitic undertones to attack Soros: “We are fighting an enemy that is different from us. Not open, but hiding; not straightforward, but crafty; not honest, but base; not national, but international; does not believe in working, but speculates with money.”

Deflecting criticisms, seeking allies

Orbán’s use of Christianity also serves wider foreign policy goals.

The continued erosion of the rule of law in Hungary, including attacks against the free media and the independence of the judiciary, is a long-standing concern for the European Union.

But Orbán has, up to now, skillfully taken advantage of the EU’s divisions and weaknesses to avoid any major consequences for his country’s democratic backsliding. He has conveniently used Christianity as a shield to deflect and delegitimize the criticisms from Brussels.

Orbán also invokes Christianity to court allies, close and far. This has been the case with solidifying the alliance with Hungary’s conservative neighbor Poland. Orbán, after all, understands the importance of close friends in the EU. Not only can they help to counter policies he objects to, but major rule of law sanctions in the EU require unanimity. Poland and Hungary can thus provide cover for each other.

Finally, Orbán has also made use of Christianity, highlighting Hungary’s policies to help persecuted Christians, to build ties with key players beyond Europe. It is noteworthy that Orbán was the only EU leader to attend the inauguration of the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil in 2019. And the Hungarian government has gone out of its way to court religious conservatives and conservative nationalists in the United States.

Religious embrace

In many respects, Viktor Orbán’s use of religion is no different from Ronald Reagan’s embrace of Christian evangelicals in the late 1970s. Both leaders relied on religious imagery to build bigger voting coalitions.

Every Republican candidate for president since has tried to appeal to evangelicals and invoked Christian values. And even ham-handed attempts such as those by President Donald Trump have done little to undermine such unions.

Such an embrace of religious groups is not in itself a problem. But calculated uses of religion to attack domestic and foreign opponents, or to weaken democratic checks and balances, is, we believe, a major concern. Orbán’s Hungary provides a clear warning of how easily Christianity can be distorted and used to erode democracy.The Conversation

About the Author:

Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International Service and Carolyn Gallaher, Associate Dean for Faculty Affairs, American University School of International Service

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.