Archive for Financial News

Trade Of The Week: EURCHF to challenge major resistance?

By ForexTime 

  • EURCHF bullish on D1/W1 charts
  • Big week for minor currency
  • Watch out for EU data + SNB decision
  • Key level of interest at 0.9640
  • Bloomberg model: 76% chance EURCHF – (0.95270 – 0.97098)

Our focus falls on the EURCHF which could be rocked by the EU data dump and Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision this week.

The minor currency pair remains bullish on the daily/weekly timeframe with prices approaching a key resistance level at 0.9700.

Note: The last time the EURCHF secured a weekly close above 0.9700 was back in July 2023.

With volatility likely to remain the name of the game for the EURCHF, a major breakout could be on the horizon.

Here are 3 factors to keep an eye on:

  1. SNB rate decision 

The SNB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% on Thursday. So, investors will direct their attention towards the policy statement, news conference, and CPI projections for clues on the central bank’s next move.

Given how economic growth held steady and 0.3% in Q4 and inflation edged down to 1.2% in February, the SNB is expected to move ahead with its first rate cut at the next policy meeting in June.

Traders are currently pricing in a 25% probability of a 25-basis point SNB cut in March with a cut fully priced in by June 2024.

  • The CHF could weaken if the SNB strikes a dovish note and signals that the next move will be a rate cut. Such an outcome may push the EURCHF higher.
  • Should the SNB sound more hawkish than expected and offer no fresh clues on rate cuts, this may support the Swiss Franc, dragging the EURCHF lower as a result.

 

  1. Key EU data 

This is a week packed with top-tier economic data from Europe which could impact bets around when the ECB will start cutting interest rates in 2024. 

On Monday, the Eurozone inflation in February was confirmed at 2.6% year-on-year, down from the 2.8% seen in January. While this was the lowest rate in three months, it’s still above the ECB’s target of 2%. It will be wise to keep a close eye on the Eurozone consumer confidence and PMIs along with top data on Germany, the largest economy in Europe.

Traders are currently pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by June with a cut fully priced by July 2024. 

  • Should overall data from Europe support expectations around the ECB cutting interest rates by Summer, this is likely to weaken the euro – sending the EURCHF lower.
  • A positive set of economic reports that push back rate cut bets may support the EUR, sending the EURCHF towards the 0.9700 resistance.

 

  1. Technical forces

The EURCHF is respecting a bullish channel on the daily timeframe and trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 0.9640 may open a path towards 0.9700 – a level not seen since July 2023.
  • Should prices slip below 0.9590, this could trigger a selloff towards the 200-day SMA at 0.9558 and 0.9530.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that EURCHF will trade within the 0.95270 – 0.97098 range over the next week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

US stock indices are under quarterly expiration pressure. The focus of attention this week is on central bank meetings

By JustMarkets

As of Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49% (for the week +0.12%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.65% (for the week +0.10%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.96% (for the week -0.49%). Last week, the real estate, health care, and technology sectors were the biggest laggards, while energy, communication services, and commodities outperformed the market. The moves came as stronger-than-expected US inflation data raised concerns that the central bank may further delay interest rate cuts. The Fed had initially planned to start cutting rates in March, but that deadline was then pushed back to June and could now be pushed back even further. The rate is expected to remain at 5.5%, but the real factor could be the conference call after the meeting. If Powell begins to back away from cutting rates this summer, it could put further pressure on the indices.

Friday saw a huge quarterly derivatives expiration in the US market, accounting for $5.1 trillion in index and equity options. Since the consensus has been bullish in equities recently, market makers now have huge hedging long positions open in equities and indices. Once the derivatives expire, market makers will get rid of this hedge and thus put pressure on the stock market. Statistically, corrections in bull markets have often occurred in periods of quarterly expirations. Perhaps now it will help the indices to let off a little steam.

The Nvidia GTC developer conference, which begins today, will be closely watched in anticipation of announcements related to artificial intelligence. Investors will undoubtedly want to hear announcements that keep the company’s stock skyrocketing. CEO Jensen Huang will deliver the keynote address and possibly offer attendees a first look at its newest products, including the next-generation B100 GPU for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing applications. Nvidia’s stock gains over the past year have increased its market value by $1 trillion, putting it at the top of the S&P 500 Index.

In addition to the Fed meeting, internationally, investors’ attention this week will be focused on interest rate decisions from Japan, the UK, Australia, Brazil, Turkey, Switzerland, and Norway. In addition, inflation data from Canada, the UK, South Africa, and Japan will be the focus.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.03% (for the week +1.39%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.04% (for the week +2.24%) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was up 1.02% (for the week +3.09%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.20% (for the week +0.88%).

Oil prices rose nearly 4% last week as the International Energy Agency released an optimistic demand outlook and predicted a small deficit this year. WTI crude prices rose above $81 a barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains, as heightened geopolitical risks raise supply concerns. Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on Russian refineries over the past week, shutting down about 7% of Russian refining capacity in the first quarter. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said he would press ahead with plans to push into the Rafah enclave in the Gaza Strip, complicating the chances of a peace deal.

Silver prices climbed above the $25 an ounce mark on Friday and were up more than 4% for the week, driven by safe-haven demand as investors sought refuge from increased military and inflation risks. The latest US consumer price index and producer price index data came in stronger than expected. At the same time, geopolitical tensions on the global stage intensified after Russia moved its tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO.

US natural gas prices fell below $1.7 per Mmbbl on Friday, marking a more than 6% decline for the week. This was driven by forecasts of mild weather that would reduce the demand for gas for heating. Despite the larger-than-expected withdrawals, the latest EIA data shows gas in storage is still 37.1 percent above average for this time of year.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.34% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 2.04% for the 5 trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.86% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.88%. Asian equity markets mostly rose on Monday as investors were cheered by better-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production figures for the first two months of this year. However, China’s urban unemployment rate stood at 5.3% in January-February 2024, up from 5.1% in December. This is the highest rate since July last year.

The all-important Bank of Japan meeting will be held as early as tomorrow. Signs that employers are planning significant wage increases seem to have inclined the central bank to finally abandon the massive monetary easing that has been applied for years to stimulate growth in the country. The last time the rate was raised was 17 years ago. The current meeting has a 56% chance of a +10bp BoJ rate hike.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,117.09 −33.39 (−0.65%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,714.77 −190.89 (−0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 17,936.65 −5.39 (−0.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,727.42 −15.73 (−0.20%)

USD Index 103.45 +0.02 (+0.01%)

Important events today:
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

AUD/USD Stabilizes Amid Chinese Economic Data and US Inflation Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar has momentarily halted its downward trajectory against the US dollar, stabilizing around the 0.6565 mark. With a lack of significant domestic data from Australia, the AUD’s movements are largely influenced by the performance of the Chinese yuan and economic developments from China. Recently, the offshore yuan weakened to its lowest in a week at 7.2 against the US dollar, following a series of macroeconomic updates from China.

China’s industrial output showed an impressive year-on-year increase of 7.0%, exceeding both the anticipated 6.5% growth and the previous rate of 4.6%. Capital investment also outperformed expectations, registering a 4.2% year-on-year rise compared to the forecasted 3.2%. Retail sales growth in February was reported at 5.5% year-on-year, albeit a slowdown from January’s 7.4% increase. Additionally, the January employment report indicated a slight uptick in unemployment, rising to 5.3% from the prior 5.1%.

Despite these positive indicators from China, the yuan’s valuation remains pressured by robust US inflation data, which complicates the Federal Reserve’s pathway to easing monetary policy. The prevailing market expectation now leans towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June, with around a 60% probability of this outcome, a shift from earlier predictions of a spring rate cut.

Given Australia’s close economic and trade ties with China, these statistics from China are particularly significant for the AUD’s performance.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The H4 chart analysis of AUD/USD indicates a consolidation phase around the 0.6570 level, with expectations of a downward breakout leading to the continuation of the decline towards the local target of 0.6506. After reaching this target, a potential corrective movement to 0.6570 (testing from below), followed by a further drop to 0.6477, is anticipated. The MACD indicator, with its signal line pointing downwards, supports this bearish scenario.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD pair has concluded its declining wave structure at 0.6570, with a consolidation phase currently observed around this mark. A downward breakout from this consolidation is expected today, aiming for the 0.6506 level. Upon achieving this target, the onset of a corrective phase to 0.6570 (testing from below) may be considered. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80 and poised to descend to 20, corroborates the likelihood of this continuation in the bearish trend.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.6 percent)
Silver (81.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.6 percent)
Copper (46.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.9 percent)
Platinum (35.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.0 percent)
Palladium (17.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (87.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.9 percent)


Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (30 percent), Gold (24 percent) and Copper (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-0.2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (24.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.8 percent)
Silver (29.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.1 percent)
Copper (15.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.5 percent)
Platinum (-10.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.2 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.9 percent)
Steel (-0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 201,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.925.19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.867.46.1
– Net Position:201,602-218,27316,671
– Gross Longs:283,062129,43247,992
– Gross Shorts:81,460347,70531,321
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.336.227.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.2-19.5-19.4

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.428.419.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.166.59.5
– Net Position:40,978-55,13014,152
– Gross Longs:67,09440,99727,826
– Gross Shorts:26,11696,12713,674
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.924.245.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.8-21.8-12.3

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.831.67.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.435.06.8
– Net Position:5,427-7,4452,018
– Gross Longs:87,43969,37817,050
– Gross Shorts:82,01276,82315,032
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.057.431.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-15.04.4

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.923.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.338.74.2
– Net Position:7,419-13,0415,622
– Gross Longs:44,71620,2869,273
– Gross Shorts:37,29733,3273,651
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.963.343.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.59.11.3

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.362.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.28.98.0
– Net Position:-10,58110,743-162
– Gross Longs:4,64512,5171,427
– Gross Shorts:15,2261,7741,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.786.432.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.72.6-33.7

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.284.71.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.875.40.9
– Net Position:-2,2372,16572
– Gross Longs:2,15319,748290
– Gross Shorts:4,39017,583218
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.812.940.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.20.7-14.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (313,749 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (109,712 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,465 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (51,988 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (29,753 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,866 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,503 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only bond market with a decline in speculator bets was the Fed Funds with a decrease of -10,180 contracts for the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (82 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the Fed Funds (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (26.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (26.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (63.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (56.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (82.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (66.1 percent)


US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (29 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-14 percent), the Fed Funds (-9 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-8.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-23.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (28.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-14.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-33.9 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 427,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 313,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.654.90.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.758.80.3
– Net Position:427,279-420,998-6,281
– Gross Longs:1,915,0305,967,03228,910
– Gross Shorts:1,487,7516,388,03035,191
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.317.884.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.414.5-1.3

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -195,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.275.82.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.165.02.0
– Net Position:-195,750194,2811,469
– Gross Longs:130,0331,361,05737,516
– Gross Shorts:325,7831,166,77636,047
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.771.093.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.55.329.3

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -938,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -999,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.780.06.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.557.53.6
– Net Position:-938,056818,498119,558
– Gross Longs:426,0892,908,549251,836
– Gross Shorts:1,364,1452,090,051132,278
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.462.689.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-25.3-7.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,262,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,291,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.185.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.665.65.0
– Net Position:-1,262,1341,149,142112,992
– Gross Longs:355,6744,992,128404,802
– Gross Shorts:1,617,8083,842,986291,810
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.285.986.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.48.2-8.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -603,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 109,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -713,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.878.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.065.48.2
– Net Position:-603,546561,17942,367
– Gross Longs:457,8393,342,267390,056
– Gross Shorts:1,061,3852,781,088347,689
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.766.782.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.9-31.8-1.3

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 51,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.373.910.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.863.813.6
– Net Position:-133,670206,104-72,434
– Gross Longs:291,0661,505,286204,645
– Gross Shorts:424,7361,299,182277,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.272.571.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-14.817.0

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.469.713.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.169.89.4
– Net Position:-54,533-1,31755,850
– Gross Longs:231,1151,043,932196,307
– Gross Shorts:285,6481,045,249140,457
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.513.289.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.9-32.0-3.7

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -316,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.680.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.561.010.0
– Net Position:-316,870303,11113,759
– Gross Longs:136,0591,271,662172,255
– Gross Shorts:452,929968,551158,496
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.144.850.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-7.20.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,857 contracts) with Soybeans (16,828 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,286 contracts), Live Cattle (3,932 contracts), Sugar (3,186 contracts), Coffee (2,959 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,622 contracts) and Cocoa (2,469 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-8,981 contracts), Cotton (-3,599 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (57 percent), Live Cattle (57 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent), Soybeans (4 percent), Soybean Oil (10 percent) and Corn (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.3 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.2 percent)
Coffee (85.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (82.3 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.0 percent)
Live Cattle (57.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (53.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.5 percent)
Cotton (82.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (84.8 percent)
Cocoa (56.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (54.1 percent)
Wheat (30.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.4 percent)


Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (42 percent), Live Cattle (38 percent) and Lean Hogs (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Cocoa (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Soybeans (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-1.4 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-16.0 percent)
Live Cattle (38.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (47.4 percent)
Cotton (41.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.4 percent)
Cocoa (-26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-33.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -189,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.443.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.730.010.6
– Net Position:-189,030199,050-10,020
– Gross Longs:297,244658,122151,688
– Gross Shorts:486,274459,072161,708
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.589.498.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-5.49.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 84,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.752.48.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.363.37.9
– Net Position:84,963-89,4684,505
– Gross Longs:177,558429,84269,383
– Gross Shorts:92,595519,31064,878
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.382.08.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.12.0-26.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.937.43.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.864.33.1
– Net Position:56,431-58,2621,831
– Gross Longs:77,57680,6668,435
– Gross Shorts:21,145138,9286,604
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.318.038.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3-0.0-3.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -180,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -197,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.460.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.634.88.4
– Net Position:-180,413191,331-10,918
– Gross Longs:99,347450,05351,545
– Gross Shorts:279,760258,72262,463
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.896.578.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.97.810.6

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.646.45.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.540.84.8
– Net Position:-32,52230,4982,024
– Gross Longs:112,652254,15128,336
– Gross Shorts:145,174223,65326,312
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.489.521.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.5-2.3-5.2

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.550.29.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.841.46.3
– Net Position:-56,88740,57516,312
– Gross Longs:85,247231,55545,244
– Gross Shorts:142,134190,98028,932
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.193.829.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.49.01.2

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.332.910.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.154.112.6
– Net Position:72,845-66,632-6,213
– Gross Longs:123,232103,11233,174
– Gross Shorts:50,387169,74439,387
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.541.356.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.4-39.9-15.7

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.936.18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.446.810.5
– Net Position:32,016-27,582-4,434
– Gross Longs:89,56492,59722,626
– Gross Shorts:57,548120,17927,060
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.045.463.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.4-37.32.5

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 97,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.232.66.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.771.43.3
– Net Position:97,513-106,8809,367
– Gross Longs:129,74689,51118,421
– Gross Shorts:32,233196,3919,054
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.117.972.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.6-40.930.7

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.728.17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.052.34.5
– Net Position:45,772-51,0175,245
– Gross Longs:75,30159,26914,812
– Gross Shorts:29,529110,2869,567
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.740.856.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.425.18.0

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -53,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.436.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.022.38.6
– Net Position:-53,76955,780-2,011
– Gross Longs:120,577143,98431,984
– Gross Shorts:174,34688,20433,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.268.257.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.08.923.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Markets Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) and the Russell-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (65.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (84.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (68.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.7 percent)


Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next lowest market in trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-50.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (9.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.2 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.645.17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.731.68.2
– Net Position:-49,10650,627-1,521
– Gross Longs:70,068169,37929,419
– Gross Shorts:119,174118,75230,940
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.034.888.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-7.05.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.571.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.466.17.2
– Net Position:-239,827141,73198,096
– Gross Longs:280,7181,911,694291,700
– Gross Shorts:520,5451,769,963193,604
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.059.576.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.1-0.15.7

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.950.614.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.066.512.4
– Net Position:15,671-17,8182,147
– Gross Longs:30,25156,88516,125
– Gross Shorts:14,58074,70313,978
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.812.454.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.212.41.0

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.456.813.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.959.411.3
– Net Position:1,395-8,6447,249
– Gross Longs:87,501188,65644,899
– Gross Shorts:86,106197,30037,650
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.343.094.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-58.743.0-3.7

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -19,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.780.35.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.177.64.6
– Net Position:-19,09414,9914,103
– Gross Longs:66,221453,34029,908
– Gross Shorts:85,315438,34925,805
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.530.142.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.110.6-26.6

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.763.624.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.060.913.1
– Net Position:-2,5925012,091
– Gross Longs:2,10011,4694,451
– Gross Shorts:4,69210,9682,360
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.238.971.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-8.31.3

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.988.82.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.186.41.1
– Net Position:-20,94312,0628,881
– Gross Longs:38,994439,22014,460
– Gross Shorts:59,937427,1585,579
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.749.461.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-12.417.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

This Copper Co. May Be a Perfect Proxy for 2024 Metals Advances, Expert Says

Source: Michael Ballanger  (3/14/24)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his take on the current copper market, as well as a few copper stock recommendations.

Copper prices rocketed up and through the $4.00/lb. level yesterday morning, sending Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE) to a new reaction high at $42.50 and the June $40 calls to $4.74.

The 52-week high at $44.70 gives way to the all-time high just above $50. Freeport-McMoRan has huge copper operations, plus the mighty Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has the world’s largest copper and gold reserves.

With copper and gold both breaking out in recent days, FCX is a perfect proxy for 2024 metals advances.

  • Minor resistance was at $42
  • Next stop $44.70
  • Then $50

I see a $6-8/lb. copper price by year-end, which means prices are much higher for FCX.

My junior copper list focuses on:

  • Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) (CA$0.19 / US$0.14)
  • American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV) (CA$0.62 / US$0.46)
  • Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ:NASDAQ) (US$19.76)

Copper just traded at $4.0393/lb. Escape velocity achieved!

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc. and American Eagle Gold Corp.
  2. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Rising US producer inflation may reduce the number of scheduled Fed rate cuts

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.35%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.29%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.30%.

The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 218,000. Thursday’s US retail sales report for February 0.6% m/m was weaker than market expectations of 0.8%, while the January figure was revised downward to 1.1% m/m from 0.8%. The February PPI reading of 1.6% y/y was stronger than market expectations of 1.2% and exceeded the revised January reading of 1.0% y/y (preliminary 0.9%). However, February core PPI fell to a 2-year low of 3.8% y/y. Either way, February’s core CPI and PPI remain above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

After the release of macro statistics, UST yields started to rise, and stock indices were corrected. Investors fear that amid high inflation, the Fed may reduce the number of scheduled rate cuts this year from three to two. So far, this is unlikely, but any hints from Mr. Powell on this trend at the upcoming meeting may trigger the beginning of a correction in the indices.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) closed 4.12% lower, adding 4.81% to Wednesday’s losses. UBS lowered its price target for Tesla on Thursday from $165 to $225 but maintained a neutral rating. The bearish sentiment on TSLA has persisted since Wednesday, when Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla to “underweight” from “equal-weight” due to its view that electric vehicle sales will remain flat in 2024 and decline in 2025.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.66%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said on Thursday that he favors two interest rate cuts before the ECB’s August break and two more before the end of the year. He also said a rate cut in June is more likely than one in April. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 10% at the next meeting on April 11 and 90% at the next meeting on June 6. In Europe today, investors will assess final inflation data in France and Italy.

Oil prices rose because of an IEA report released on Thursday that said oil markets will face a supply shortage by the end of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil markets would be in deficit by the end of 2024 if OPEC+ maintained its current production cuts. However, the balance would become a surplus if OPEC+ started pumping more oil. OPEC+ will meet on June 1 to decide on production levels for the second half 2024.

Natural gas prices rose Thursday after the EIA’s weekly report showed US gas inventories fell by 9 billion cubic feet, which was higher than market expectations of 2 billion cubic feet. Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas shut down one of three production units on March 1 due to damage caused by freezing weather in Texas. The unit is scheduled to resume operations this week.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.71% on Thursday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.20%.

Major Japanese companies have already agreed to meet union demands for wage increases. This raises the possibility that the central bank (BoJ) could exit its negative interest rate policy as early as next week due to rising wages, high inflation, and a stable economy.

Australia’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, supporting bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting rates this year. Markets currently estimate a 70% probability of the RBA starting to cut the money rate in August, with 40 basis points of easing this year.

The National Bureau of Statistics released Chinese house price data for February for a sample of 70 cities, which showed continued price declines in line with expectations. Average primary market prices fell 0.36% month-over-month, while average secondary market prices fell 0.62% month-over-month. Both figures were similar to the January decline.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,150.48 −14.83 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,905.66 −137.66 (−0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 17,942.04 −19.34 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,743.15 −29.02 (−0.37%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.57 (+0.55%)

Important events today:
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Yen Weakens Despite Japan’s Deflation Exit

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is rising, reaching 148.28 on Friday. The US dollar is strengthening across the market following the release of US retail sales data.

This information is prompting market participants to reassess their expectations for the future of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Fed could interpret strong retail sales as a significant inflationary factor, potentially delaying the timing of any rate cut.

On Friday, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the Japanese economy is no longer suffering from deflation, as there is a strong trend towards wage growth. This statement is particularly noteworthy as previous comments from officials, including the Prime Minister, suggested the country had yet to fully emerge from a deflationary state.

According to Suzuki, the government has mobilised all efforts to support this wage growth trend.

The next Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting is scheduled for next week, and high expectations surround its outcome. The interest rate could finally move out of negative territory, currently at -0.1% annually. The BoJ remains the only major central bank that maintains negative borrowing costs.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has completed a growth wave to 148.64. Today, we consider the likelihood of forming a consolidation range below this level. Exiting upwards from this range could open the potential for a growth wave to 149.20, with the trend possibly continuing to 150.00. The MACD oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line breaking above zero and aiming for new highs.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY is forming a consolidation range around 148.22. We expect an upward exit from this range and the continuation of the growth wave to 149.20. Following the completion of this level, a correction back to 148.22 (testing from above) is possible. Subsequently, the growth is expected to reach the main target of the wave at 150.00. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above the 20 mark and ready to move towards 80.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.