Archive for Financial News

Trade war fears ease… but for how long?

Article by ForexTime

Global stocks have bounced back to life after China’s central bank calmed markets by urging investors to “stay calm and rational”.

While this move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could support risk sentiment and push equity markets higher in the short term, gains are likely to be limited. With trade war fears still a recurrent market theme that continues to weigh on sentiment, investors may start questioning the sustainability of the stock market rally.  Markets are likely to remain cautious with any signs of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China potentially sparking a renewed wave of risk aversion.

Bank of England policy meeting in focus

Today’s main event risk for the British Pound will be the outcome of the Bank of England policy meeting, which is widely expected to conclude with monetary policy left unchanged.

With the BoE expected to keep interest rates on hold, investors will most likely closely scrutinize the policy statement and MPC vote count for insight on rate hike timings beyond June. The Pound could weaken if the central bank expresses concerns over Brexit related uncertainty and political risk negatively impacting growth. Pound weakness may remain a dominant market theme if Brexit uncertainty results in the BoE repeatedly delaying monetary policy normalization.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the GBPUSD is bearish on the daily charts. The solid daily close below 1.3200 could invite a further decline towards 1.3130 and 1.3100, respectively.

Currency spotlight – Dollar

The Dollar has scope to extend gains against a basket of major currencies amid market expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates at least two more times this year.

Away from the fundamentals, the technical picture remains heavily bullish with prices hovering near an 11-month peak as of writing. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows, while prices are trading firmly above the 200 daily Simple Moving Average. A firm daily close above the 95.00 level could open a path towards 95.35 and 96.00, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Oil

There is a growing sense of uncertainty mounting ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting, with markets now re-evaluating if an output increase could still be on the table.

While Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing OPEC and its allies to raise production, other members including Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela have opposed such a move.  With Iran already stating that it was likely to reject any agreement that raised output, this could be a fractious meeting between oil producers in Vienna. Whatever the outcome of the OPEC meeting, it could have a lasting impacting on oil prices.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

NZD and GBP under further pressure

Article by ForexTime

The New Zealand dollar has been under intense pressure as of late and the upcoming GDP figures are expected to do it no favours. Market expectations are that we will see it drop from the previous quarters 0.6% reading to 0.5% for this quarter, this decline is expected in the services and retail industries primarily and the flow on effects for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not be ideal when it comes to the prospect of raising interest rates anytime soon. Any positive reading would be a surprise for the markets as well and could give a welcome boost to the kiwi, but likely only in the short term. As at present all commodity currencies are under pressure from the strong USD, but also the threat of tariffs is weighing on these currencies. This will be the last major event economically speaking for the New Zealand economy this week, so what traders take away from here will likely push sentiment for the next few days until the next trading week.

For me the NZDUSD is ever the bearish market at present in the current climate. We’ve seen a push down to support at 0.6856 and the market is looking hungry to test this level again. If we did see a bounce here though this would be a bullish signal and I would expect to see resistance levels tested again. However, with the current market sentiment, support levels at 0.6819 and 0.6755 are likely to be key trading targets. On the bullish side if we see positive GDP data then a push to resistance at 0.6966 is likely, but the 20 day moving average there may make it a hard one to beat. Resistance at 0.7054 looks to be an impossible task at present for the bulls, given the numerous tests last week, and I would expect to see it hold out against pressure. All in all the NZDUSD looks to be suffering under the bears and we may see continued pressure for some time.

The pound has had a rough week as it stands coming under immense pressure from the markets over uncertainty around Brexit. This is nothing new to most people trading the GBPUSD, and it looks likely we will continue to face further uncertainty. For me though the GBPUSD while facing all this uncertainty is actually becoming more a technical trade for many and the weekly chart is something I feel traders are missing at present.

At present the GBPUSD has been bearish but it has moved down to the bullish trend line on the weekly chart and has pulled back ever so slightly. If the market were to push through this then it would be a very strong bearish signal. However, if it does bounce and make a recovery then it would be a bullish signal to say the least, and potentially lift up to resistance at 1.3394 in this instance. So while it has been bearish the long term technical picture is a little different and sending mixed signals at present.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

EURUSD: Why the “Next Day or Two” are Critical

An Open House insight from our Currency Pro Service editor

By Elliott Wave International

Every week, our Currency Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, records a new video focusing on EURUSD, USDJPY and other markets. Learn why “the next day or two” should determine the next move in the euro in this clip from Jim’s June 17 video.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline EURUSD: Why the “Next Day or Two” are Critical. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

CORN: Technical Analysis – Lower expected Chinese import bearish for corn prices

By IFCMarkets

Lower expected Chinese import bearish for corn prices

Lower Chinese imports after the country imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods imports is bearish for corn. Will corn prices continue the decline?

The US Department of Agriculture’s WASDE report last week was bullish for corn: the USDA lowered its beginning and ending stocks estimates due to stronger corn export demand and ethanol usage. However with no adverse weather forecasts for US Corn Belt to provide additional support, corn prices were falling after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods, including corn, following the announcement of US tariffs Friday. China’s corn imports from the US hit 757,000 tons last year totaling $160 million, up almost 240%. If China doesn’t revoke its tariffs after President Trump threatened 10% tariffs on additional $200 billion Chinese imports if China doesn’t revoke its $50 billion retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Lower export demand is bearish for corn.
Soybean stocks could hold steady with 2017/18. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report, analysts expect the agency to show 2017/18 soybean world ending stocks at 3.299 billion bushels (down 36.7 million bushels from April), and 2018/19 world ending stocks at 3.351 billion bushels.

Corn price

On the daily timeframe the CORN: D1 has been trading with negative bias after hitting two-year high in mid-May. It has fallen below the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is leveling off.

  • The Donchian channel indicates downtrend: it is tilted lower.
  • The Parabolic indicator has formed a sell signal.
  • The MACD indicator is below the signal line and the gap is widening, which is bearish.
  • The stochastic oscillator is rising from the oversold zone, this is a bullish signal.

We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 346.70. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above last fractal high at 392.20. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (392.20) without reaching the order (346.70), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Sell
Sell stop Below 346.70
Stop loss Above 392.20

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Pound wobbles ahead of Brexit showdown in House of Commons

Article by ForexTime

It has been a terrible trading week thus far for the British Pound, as domestic political risk haunted investor attraction towards the currency.

There was a sense of uncertainty after the government suffered a crushing defeat earlier in the week in a Lords vote to give Parliament a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal. With the European Union Withdrawal Bill returning to the House of Commons today for a second vote, this could be a major leadership test for Prime Minister Theresa May. Another defeat for the government may spark fears over continued political uncertainty in the UK at a time where the Brexit deadline is slowly approaching.

The outlook for Sterling remains tilted to the downside, especially when factoring in how Brexit-related uncertainty and political risk may force the Bank of England to delay monetary policy normalization this summer.

Regarding the technical picture, the GBPUSD continues to fulfil the prerequisites of a bearish trend on the daily charts. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs since the middle of April 2018. The solid daily close below 1.3200 could inject bears with enough confidence to confront 1.3130 and 1.3100, respectively. With an appreciating Dollar likely to compound to the GBPUSD’s downside, the outlook for the currency pair remains firmly bearish in the short to medium term.

Global stocks rebound but trade fears linger

Asian and European stocks rose today as markets attempted to shrug off trade war threats. While the improved risk appetite could elevate stock markets higher, the sustainability should be questioned as fears over trade tensions remain a key market theme. Global equity bears could transform the current rebound into a classical dead cat bounce if trade tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold has failed to garner any support from the lingering uncertainty and caution over the simmering trade tensions between the United States and China. Price action suggests that the yellow metal remains heavily pressured by a firmer Dollar and prospects of higher US interest rates. With the Federal Reserve expected to raise rates at least two more times in 2018, zero-yielding Gold may find itself in trouble.

Taking a peek at the technicals, Gold could be gearing for a heavy selloff on the daily and weekly charts. The $1280 level has the ability to transform into a firm resistance that invites a steep decline towards $1264. In an alternative perspective, a rebound and daily close back above $1280 may reopen a path towards $1289 and $1300, respectively.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Philippines raises rate for 2nd month, stresses vigilance

By CentralBankNews.info
      The Philippine central bank raised its monetary policy rates for the second month in a row, saying it is ready to take further action if needed and emphasized its “continued vigilance against developments, including excessive peso volatility, that could affect the outlook for inflation.”
      Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said it “is prepared to take further policy action as needed to achieve its price and financial stability objectives.”
      BSP raised its benchmark overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) by another 25 basis points to 3.50 percent, along with its overnight lending and deposit rates, a move that was expected by most analysts.
      The benchmark rate has now been raised 50 basis points following the hike in May, which was the first rate hike by BSP since September 2014.
      Today’s rate hike follows a rise in inflation in May to 4.6 percent, the fifth month of accelerating inflation and the third month inflation has been over the central bank’s target range of 2 -4 percent around a 3.0 percent midpoint.
      Explaining the reason for its second consecutive rate increase, BSP said inflation expectations for this year remained elevated and this posed a risk of further prices increases.
      And while 2019 inflation expectations remain within the target range, BSP said elevated expectations for this year posed a risk of sustained price pressure from future wage and prices.
      Rising oil and commodity prices is also expected to have a stronger effect on inflation given robust demand in the Philippines, underlying that upside risks dominate the inflation outlook.
      Last week’s hawkish stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve has also put further pressure on the exchange rate of the peso, which the raises import prices and adds to inflationary pressure.
      The peso has been weakening all year and was trading at 53.46 to the U.S. dollar today, down 6.5 percent since the start of this year.

   
       Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas released the following statement:

“At its meeting on monetary policy today, the Monetary Board decided to raise the interest rate on the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility by 25 basis points to 3.50 percent, effective Thursday, 21 June 2018. The interest rates on the overnight lending and deposit facilities were likewise raised accordingly.  
In deciding to raise the BSP’s policy interest rate anew, the Monetary Board noted that inflation expectations remained elevated for 2018 and that the risk of possible second-round effects from ongoing price pressures argued for follow-through monetary policy action. Although inflation expectations remain within the target range for 2019, elevated expectations for 2018 highlight the risk posed by sustained price pressures on future wage and price outcomes. Equally important, while latest baseline forecasts have shifted lower for 2018-2019, upside risks continue to dominate the inflation outlook, even as various measures of core inflation continue to rise. Moreover, the impact of international oil and commodity price movements on overall inflation is expected to be stronger given prevailing robust aggregate demand conditions.
Given these considerations, the Monetary Board believes that further policy action enables the BSP to reinforce its signal on safeguarding macroeconomic stability in an environment of rising commodity prices and ongoing normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. The Monetary Board likewise reiterates its support for carefully coordinated efforts with other government agencies in implementing non-monetary measures to mitigate the impact of supply-side factors on inflation.
The Monetary Board also emphasized the BSP’s continued vigilance against developments, including excessive peso volatility, that could affect the outlook for inflation. The BSP is prepared to take further policy action as needed to achieve its price and financial stability objectives.”

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 20.06.2018 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has broken the short-term low and right now is still being corrected downwards. The targets of this decline may be inside the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.3102 and 1.3040 respectively. The resistance level is at 1.3480.

GBPUSD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is falling towards the post-correctional extension area between. At the same time, the convergence is being formed, which indicates a possible pullback after the price reaches its targets.

GBPUSD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURJPY has already been corrected by 61.8% and may continue trading towards the retracement of 76.0% at 126.00, the short-term upside targets are at 128.15 and 129.00.

EURJPY1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the convergence made the pair reverse and start a new correction to the upside, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. In the future, this growth may continue towards the retracements of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 128.97, 128.50, and 128.93 respectively.

EURJPY2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 20.06.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After reaching 1.1535, EURUSD has completed the correction to the upside and returned to 1.1595. Possibly, today the price may form another descending structure. The next target is at reach 1.1480. Later, the market may grow towards 1.1535 and then fall with the target at 1.1430.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving downwards. Possibly, the pair may be corrected towards 1.3255 and then fall to reach 1.3066. After that, the instrument may start another correction to return to 1.3160 and then resume its decline with the target at 1.3022.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating again. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 0.9900. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and then continue trading upwards to reach 1.0020.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading to rebound from 109.58; it is consolidating in the center of the range. If later the pair breaks this range to the downside, the market may fall towards 109.40; if to the upside – continue trading upwards to reach 111.11. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading downwards with the target at 107.90.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling. Possibly, the pair may reach the short-term target at 0.7345 and then start another correction towards 0.7480. After that, the instrument may resume trading to the downside to reach the main target of this wave at 0.7292.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has expanded its consolidating channel upwards. Possibly, today the price may fall towards 62.56 and then form another ascending structure to reach 64.24. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 62.56.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed another consolidation range around 1277.00. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading downwards to reach 1240.00 and then start a new correction with the target at 1304.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

BRENT

Brent is still being corrected inside the Flag pattern. Today, the price may form another descending structure to reach 71.80 and then resume growing towards the first target at 76.90.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Intraday Analysis 20th June 2018

By Orbex

The U.S. dollar managed to turn fairly stronger on the day on Tuesday. Economic data was limited. The U.S. building permits data showed an increase of 1.30 million. This was slower than the estimates of a 1.35 million increase. Housing starts fared better, rising 1.35 million and marked the highest increase on a month over month basis.

The market uncertainty continued with the U.S. President Trump announcing fresh tariffs on China which sent the equity markets closing lower on the day.

The lineup of speeches from various central bank chiefs takes precedence today. The speeches include that from the ECB President, Mario Draghi, BoJ’s Kuroda, and the Fed’s Powell. The central bankers are converging in Portugal for a banking conference.

It was only last year that the ECB President, Draghi talked up the euro currency which sent the currency pair rallying to fresh highs.

On the economic front, the U.S. existing home sales data will be coming out followed later in the evening by New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report. The quarterly GDP is expected to rise at a pace of 0.5%, slightly slower than the 0.6% increase that was registered in the previous quarter.

What is your knowledge like on economic data releases and how they affect the market? Learn more!

EURUSD intra-day analysis

eurusd forex intraday analysis 20th june

EURUSD (1.1574): The EURUSD currency pair formed an outside bar yesterday with the intraday gains failing to hold. The currency pair closed on a bearish note. The declines came following Draghi’s comments from Portugal where he reiterated his comments from the recently held ECB meeting. Price action was seen to be steady above 1.1539 level of support for the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD broke out to the downside from the bearish flag pattern only to retrace the losses rather quickly. Still, a close below the previous low at 1.15594 could suggest further declines.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

usdjpy forex intraday analysis 20th june

USDJPY (110.09): The USDJPY currency pair was seen to be closing bearish but price action managed to pullback from intraday lows of 109.57. Still, the near term retracement following the downside breakout from the rising trend line is expected to keep the bias to the downside. Failure to breakout above the trend line could signal another retest back to the support level at 109.57. There is also a possibility that USDJPY could break out from the bearish flag pattern which is yet to be validated.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

xauusd forex intraday analysis 20th june

XAUUSD (1273.91): Gold prices continued to inch lower despite the broader market sentiment. Price action is seen hovering near the 1274.50 level of support marking the lower end of the support zone at 1282 and 1274. A close below this level could signal continued decline in price action. The declines come following a period of consolidation in price action below the 1304 – 1301 level of resistance. A break down below 1274 could trigger further declines to the next main support at 1242.25.

ForexTV

 

 

EURUSD: euro to drop towards the US session

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Tuesday the 19th of June, trading on the euro closed down. After an upwards correction to 1.1645, the euro slid to 1.1531 (-114 pips) during the European session. The greenback climbed across the board on the back of an escalation to trade dispute taking place between China and the US, piling further pressure on the EURUSD pair. Mario Draghi’s comments also weighed on the euro, although this news is playing second fiddle to the trade war. When the US session came around, the rate corrected to 1.1596.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:00 Eurozone: ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech.
  • 13:00 UK: CBI industrial trends survey – orders (Jun).
  • 13:30 Eurozone: ECB Cœuré Speech.
  • 15:30 USA: current account (Q1).
  • 16:30 USA: Fed’s Powell speech.
  • 16:30 Japan: BoJ Governor Kuroda speech.
  • 16:30 Eurozone: ECB President Draghi speech.
  • 16:30 Australia: RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe speech.
  • 17:00 USA: existing home sales (May).
  • 17:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks (15 Jun).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The euro dropped to the 90th degree in the space of 6 hours. The rebound from the 45th degree amounted to 45 degrees. Growth was held up by the horizontal Gann level along with the balance line. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1581.

I think that pressure on the euro is going to remain in place. The real question is whether it’s going to start declining straight away or a few days from now. I also considered that the pair might consolidate within the channel (dashed lines) in a range of 1%. On the current hour, its boundaries are at 1.1523 and 1.1638.

Today (Wednesday), it’s worth keeping an eye on all the speeches from the heads of central banks; with Powell, Kuroda, Lowe, and Draghi all set to speak. Their words could turn out to have no influence on markets, but it’s better to be prepared for a surge in volatility just in case.

Considering that the euro crosses were all declining when I made my forecast, I expect the euro to drop to 1.1518. The lower line of the channel will act as a support.

The hourly stochastic indicator is in the buy zone. This means that the drop may be delayed for 4 – 5 hours. The AO and CCI are both in neutral territory, so the euro will follow the lead of other currencies. At the moment, most currencies are trading down against the US dollar. The dollar is recouping its losses against the yen and franc.