Archive for Financial News

CORN Analysis – Higher expected US crop bearish for corn prices

By IFCMarkets

Higher expected US crop bearish for corn prices

US farmers report improving corn yields, raising expected crop estimates. Will corn prices continue the decline?

The US Department of Agriculture indicates farmers report improving corn yields and condition in Feedback From The Field surveys. The average estimate so far this season is 170 bushels per acre with median yields at 180 bpa. And official 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day weather forecasts are favorable after a dry week in the Corn Belt: a shift towards warm and wet conditions for most of the growing region. Higher expected crop is bearish for corn.

Corn price below fractal low 09/18/2018 Technical Analysis IFC Markets chart

On the daily timeframe the CORN: D1 has been trading with negative bias after hitting three-month high in mid-June. It has fallen below the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is declining.

We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 349.80. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above last fractal high at 370.10. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (370.10) without reaching the order (349.80), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Sell
Sell stop Below 349.80
Stop loss Above 370.10

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Yen Is Back to Two-Month Lows

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

The yen is weakening considerably against the dollar by mid September, while the Japanese government is trying to calm the market down. The Minister of Finance Taro Aso said today the BoJ monetary policy is going to stay the same so as to reach the 2% inflation target, but this will require some time. The basic policy features are set by the central bank, Aso said, while any early talks on the QE shutdown may only provoke too much volatility.

This way, Aso smoothed down a bit what the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Friday, highlighting the fact that the strategy of the QE shutdown is already being worked on. Such talks are not groundless, as the Bank of Japan spends a lot of money on QE in order to avoid deflation, and while it does its job, many politicians want a better effect, and that’s why they criticize the BoJ.

In the middle of this week, the Japanese central bank is going to have another scheduled meeting on monetary policy, where some decisions are to be taken. The interest rate has been negative (0.10%) for a long time, and this is another stimulus measure. After the meeting tomorrow, the traditional press conference will be held, which is of a particular interest.

An uptrend is still dominating when it comes to USDJPY. After a bounce off the midterm channel support the price formed a new short term ascending trend. Meanwhile, on H1, the price is going down towards the support, which may be broken out soon. In case 111.82 gets broken out, another support, the one of the projection channel, may be hit, at 111.30, with the next downtrend target being the midterm support at 110.85.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

 

Trump beats the drums of impending China trade war louder than before

Article by ForexTime

The drums of trade war were beating louder than ever after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

This move has certainly elevated U.S.-China trade tensions to dangerous heights, especially when considering how the U.S. also threatened to raise tariffs up to 25% in 2019 if no deal is reached. With Beijing threatening to bite back, concerns over a full-blown trade war becoming reality are to set to intensify. Beijing may end up canceling trade talks with Washington as the latest U.S. tariff move brings “new uncertainties” to the negotiations.

Financial markets offered a fairly muted response to the announcement as the tariffs were already heavily priced into markets. Investors may remain guarded and adopt a “wait and see” approach ahead of China’s possible retaliation to the fresh round of U.S. tariffs.

In the currency markets, Dollar bulls were nowhere to be found today despite simmering trade tensions eroding investor confidence. Buying sentiment towards the Greenback could receive a boost if Beijing’s reaction fans trade war fears and promotes risk aversion. Although the fundamental drivers behind the Dollar’s appreciation remain firmly intact, technically the Dollar is starting to look bearish on the daily charts. The Dollar Index is coming under increasing pressure with prices wobbling above the 94.50 support level. A breakdown below this point could encourage a decline towards 94.10 and 93.90. For bulls to jump back into the game, prices need to secure a solid weekly close back above 95.50.

Sterling has the potential to appreciate sharply if the European Union adopts a flexible approach on Brexit at the European Union summit later this week. The GBPUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with the weekly close above 1.3000 paving a path for further upside. An intraday breakout above 1.3170 could instil bulls with enough courage to challenge 1.3200 and 1.3260, respectively.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Ichimoku Analysis: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, 18.09.2018

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7214, above the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s an uptrend forming. We expect a test of the upper cloud boundary at 0.7185, and then a rise to 0.7310, which will be confirmed with the price bouncing off the upper boundary of the descending channel. This rise may be prevented in case price breaks out the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and closes below 0.7145, which will be a signal for a further fall to 0.7005 and below. Once the price breaks out the resistance area and stays above 0.7255, this will conversely confirm the price is going to rise.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.6599, above the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s an uptrend forming. We expect a test of the signal lines at 0.6585, and then a rise to 0.6675, which will be confirmed with the price bouncing off the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. This rise may be prevented in case price breaks out the lower boundary and closes above 0.6530, which will be a signal for a further fall to 0.6450 and below. Once the price breaks out the resistance area and stays above 0.6635, this will conversely confirm the price is going to rise.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3023, below the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s a downtrend forming. We expect a test of the signal lines at 1.3055, and then the fall is likely to continue to 1.2865, which will be confirmed with the price bouncing off the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This fall may be prevented in case price breaks out the upper boundary and closes above 1.3105, which will be a signal for a further rise to 1.3250 and above. Conversely, the fall will be confirmed with the support breakout and the price closing below 1.2965, which will start a descending flag pattern.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Tech Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT; 18.09.2018

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

The EURUSD is consolidating and may bounce off 1.1700 today to go further down, to reach 1.1660 first, and then, after breaking it out, the first target at 1.1604.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD is still trading higher and may reach 1.3185 today, and then fall till 1.3055. After that, the pair is likely to rise, reaching 1.3111, and then again fall till 1.2922, which is going to be the first target.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF

The USDCHF failed to stay above 0.9640. This level got broken out, and the correction may follow till 0.9608, which may be reached today. Conversely, in case the price breaks out the consolidation range and goes up, it may reach 0.9670, which is going to be the first target.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY

The USDJPY has been downtrending and correcting. Today, the pair may break out the lower range boundary to reach 111.11, but then is likely to correct to 111.65. After that, the downtrend may continue to 110.15.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD

The Aussie has broken out 0.7187 and is going up, probably to reach 0.7234 (correctional wave 5), and then to fall till 0.7120, which is going to be the first target.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB

The USDRUB is still consolidating around 67.96; If the price goes down, it may reach 67.00; if it goes up, the correction towards 69.00 may follow, and then the pair is likely to head down again, reaching 65.40, which is going to be the first target.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GOLD

The yellow metal is trading lower, probably entering wave 5 with the target at 1,188.65. A rise to 1,200 is possible, and then the consolidation is likely to continue. If the price goes down, it may reach 1186.20.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Crude oil is consolidating, too, but once the lower boundary gets broken out, the correction towards 75.50 may follow. If the price goes up, the rise to 80.50, the local target, is possible.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2018.09.18

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.16224
  • Open: 1.16827
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.40
  • Day’s range: 1.16806 – 1.17003
  • 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed on the EUR/USD currency pair. Quotes rose by more than 70 points. The US dollar weakened against the basket of major currencies due to the escalation of trade conflict between the US and China. At the moment, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating. The key support and resistance levels are 1.16700 and 1.17000, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

The news feed is calm. We recommend paying attention to the speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi.

EUR/USD

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a decrease in quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.16700, 1.16300, 1.15900
  • Resistance levels: 1.17000, 1.17300

If the price fixes below 1.16700, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to decline. The movement is tending potentially to 1.16300-1.16000.

An alternative may be the further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to the level of 1.17300-1.17600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.30660
  • Open: 1.31328
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.57
  • Day’s range: 1.31315 – 1.31528
  • 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound strengthened against the US currency amid positive news about Brexit. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. The key support and resistance levels are: 1.31200 and 1.31600 respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks. In the near future, a technical correction is not ruled out.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a decrease in quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31200, 1.30700, 1.30200
  • Resistance levels: 1.31600, 1.32000

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.31600, further growth of the GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.32000-1.32200.

An alternative may be the correction of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.30700-1.30500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.30292
  • Open: 1.30330
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.15
  • Day’s range: 1.30312 – 1.30373
  • 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

The technical pattern on the USD/CAD currency pair is ambiguous. The trading instrument is consolidating. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. Local support and resistance levels are: 1.30100 and 1.30500, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks. A trading instrument is tending to recover.

The news feed on the economy of Canada is calm.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator has reached the oversold zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.30100, 1.29800
  • Resistance levels: 1.30500, 1.30800, 1.31200

If the price fixes below the support of 1.30100, the USD/CAD quotes are expected to decline. The movement is tending to 1.29800-1.29500.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above 1.30500, it is necessary to consider purchases of USD/CAD. The target movement level is 1.30800-1.31000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 112.005
  • Open: 111.839
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.25
  • Day’s range: 111.914 – 112.235
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

There is a variety of trends on the USD/JPY currency pair. Local support and resistance levels are: 111.900 and 112.250, respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks. Investors expect additional drivers. We recommend paying attention to the US government bonds yield.

The news feed on the economy of Japan is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is located near the 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

Stochastic Oscillator has started moving out the overbought zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives the signal to sell USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 111.900, 111.550, 111.250
  • Resistance levels: 112.250, 112.600

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 112.250, the USD/JPY quotes are expected to rise. The movement is tending to 112.600-112.800.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the level of 111.900, we recommend looking for entry points to the market to open short positions. The target movement level is 111.550-111.250.

Analytics by JustForex

The Escalation of Trade Conflict Continues

by JustForex

The US dollar weakened against the basket of major currencies due to the escalation of trade conflict between the US and China. Yesterday, Donald Trump announced the introduction of a new 10% duties on import of Chinese goods $200 billion worth, which will come into effect on September 24. The US president also said that tariffs could grow to 25% if China did not make concessions. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.45%).

The British pound strengthened against the US currency amid positive news about Brexit. The first of three rounds of talks, at which the leaders of the European countries intend to conclude an agreement with the UK on favorable terms for the country’s exit from the EU, will be held this week.

The “black gold” prices are declining due to the introduction of new duties against China. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $68.50 per barrel. Investors expect statistics on the API weekly crude oil stock in the US at 23:30 (GMT+3:00).

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.53%), #DIA (-0.35%), #QQQ (-1.44%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield shows positive dynamics. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 3.00-3.01%.

The news feed on 18.09.2018:

Today, the publication of important economic reports from the US and the Eurozone is not expected. We recommend paying attention to the speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi.

by JustForex

EURUSD: euro bulls ready to test the 1.1722 resistance

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Monday the 17th of September, trading on the euro closed up. The rate recovered to 1.1669 (67 degrees). I reckon that the pair’s growth was triggered by the pound, which rose to 1.3164 against the greenback. The pound got some support following reports that progress is being made in the Irish border talks.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 15:30 Canada: manufacturing shipments (Jul).
  • 17:00 US: NAHB housing market index (Sep).
  • 23:00 US: net long-term TIC flows (Jul).
  • 23:30 US: API weekly crude oil stocks (14 Sep).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

The rate jumped by 67 degrees. Monday moved against Friday. Since a rebound from the trend line did not occur, I reckon that the pair is following my forecast from the 4-hour timeframe. I haven’t removed my hourly forecast from the chart because of the ongoing trade wars. I’ve also included an intraday forecast for Tuesday, so I hope this doesn’t confuse anyone.

In Asia, the euro bulls have revisited yesterday’s high (1.1665). The pair is currently trading at 1.1716. The economic calendar is pretty bare, so after yesterday’s session rally, I concluded that today we should see a correction to 1.1662. This is a necessary, but insufficient for my weekly scenario to work out. It’s important that the rate doesn’t drop too far, or it could easily turn into my scenario from the hourly timeframe. Let’s wait and see what kind of comments come out of China today in response to the proposed new tariffs. There’s a resistance at 1.1722, beyond which the road is open to 1.1740.

There’s an EU leaders’ summit taking place this week, where negotiations with the UK will continue. These talks will be important for the pound. If there isn’t any negative news, the pound won’t drop, and this shouldn’t have any negative effects on the euro.

Investors await China’s response

Article by ForexTime

U.S. President Trump moved forward with imposing 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports effective next week. Trump’s move has obviously taken the trade war with China to a new level, and the confrontation may last longer than what was previously thought. There’s no doubt that China’s economy will begin feeling the pain given that the U.S. duties now cover almost half of its imports. So, expect to start seeing more aggressive monetary and fiscal actions to reduce the ongoing impact of the trade war. However, it remains unclear to what extent the U.S. economy will be hurt with these tariffs, but definitely corporate and consumer bills will be on the rise in the coming months.

Interestingly the impact on financial markets was muted after the announcement. While China’s major indices were slightly lower, stocks in Korea and Japan traded in green territory. It seems as if the latest tariff announcement was largely priced in, but what remains uncertain is how Beijing policymakers will respond. While China cannot match the U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar given the huge trade imbalance, it still has other weapons it could use, including boycotting U.S. products, increasing taxes on earnings of U.S. companies in China, refusing to grant approvals for M&A involving U.S. businesses, and reduce its U.S. debt holdings. Chinese officials have also threatened to walk away from the negotiating table, as they seem to be betting on Republicans losing the midterm elections in November. Investors should be prepared for more short-term downside risks across equity markets given all these uncertainties.

There are also little movements in FX markets as traders remained on the sidelines. The dollar index was treading water after dropping 0.45% on Monday. However, expect the greenback to resume its uptrend if risk aversion dominates again.

Sterling was the best performing currency on Monday, rising to a six-week high against the dollar to trade above 1.3150. Despite no significant progress occurring in Brexit talks, it seems traders are optimistic that a deal will be struck in the coming days. If EU leaders continue to adopt a flexible approach during their talks this week, expect the pound to continue outperforming. However, risks remain within UK politics and that could lead to big swings in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Intraday Technical Analysis 19 September

By Orbex

The U.S. Dollar eased back on Monday. The declines came after a renewed threat of trade tariffs. The U.S. administration announced that it would impose new tariffs of 10% on over $200 billion in goods imported from China. A further increase to 25% is expected from January.

President Trump warned that retaliatory measures from China could lead to immediate tariffs on an extra $267 billion in goods of imports.

Act_TradeIdeas

Data from the U.S. was limited to the Empire State Manufacturing Index. The index slipped to 19 in September. This was lower than the estimates and down from 25.6 from the month before.

In the European session, the British pound posted strong gains, rising to a seven-week high. Brexit news was the primary driver. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier told reporters that the talks between the EU and the UK were being conducted in a spirit of good cooperation.

The Eurozone’s inflation data confirmed that headline CPI rose 2.0% on the year in August, as expected.

The day starts off with the ECB President Mario Draghi speaking at an event in Paris. Draghi’s speech comes in the backdrop of the recent ECB meeting where the central bank did not make any significant changes to monetary policy.

The European session is relatively quiet for the remainder of the day.

The NY trading session starts off with the manufacturing sales report from Canada.  Forecast points to a 1.0% increase on the month. Later in the evening, the current account and trade balance numbers from New Zealand are due. The data comes ahead of the New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report due later in the week.

EURUSD intraday analysis

eurusd

EURUSD (1.1694): The EURUSD currency pair rebounded on Monday erasing the losses from last Friday. The bounce comes following the decline to the support area of 1.1656 – 1.1626 level. Price action is now on track to test the next main resistance area at 1.1725. If this resistance level is cleared, we expect to see price action moving toward 1.1830 level as the minimum upside target.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

gbpusd

GBPUSD (1.3158): The GBPUSD currency pair extended the gains following the rebound off the 20 periods EMA on the 4-hour chart. Price action is expected to inch higher toward 1.3205 which remains the primary target for now. A retest of the resistance level here could potentially keep the cable within the range until a breakout emerges. Further gains can be anticipated on a breakout above the resistance level. To the downside, the support at 1.3036 is expected to hold.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

xauusd

XAUUSD (1198.88): Gold prices inched higher only to give up the gains and retest the support level at 1197.50. Price action remains mostly muted in gold. If the support holds, then we can expect to see a rebound off the current support. This will pave the way for gold prices to extend gains toward 1219.75 which remains elusive for the moment. To the downside, a close below 1197.50 could keep gold prices extending the declines to 1183.30 support.

By Orbex