Archive for Financial News

German ZEW Survey Is Coming Up

By Orbex

Tomorrow we have the release of a host of data relevant to the euro all at once. We have CPI, trade balance and ZEW economic sentiment indicator for the eurozone.

But, the one we’ll be focusing on here since it tends to have a lot of impact on the market are the two ZEW surveys for Germany.

Last month, the indicator came in with a surprising drop back into the negative. This caught most analysts off guard. The negative result broke a five-month improving trend, although it didn’t retrace all that much.

Let’s see if it can manage to return to that growth pattern it’s been maintaining since October of last year.

What We Are Looking For

The consensus is that the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator will just barely move into positive to 0.5compared to the -2.1 from last month. For reference, the long-term average is 22.1.

We can expect the ZEW Economic Situation indicator to improve to 11.1 from 8.2 last month. The gap between the current situation and the outlook would actually widen slightly despite both indicators improving.

It should be pointed out, though, that there is also a large block of economists who are predicting that the ZEW ESI will come in lower than the prior month. In fact, there is somewhat of a consensus forming around -6.0. The current situation would also be lower but still remain positive, according to this view.

The Factors and the Diverging Views

Last month’s survey came before the souring of trade relations between the US and China. And this widely impacts how we evaluate Germany’s future situation. They also conducted the survey ahead of the EU Parliament results, where the traditional parties lost the majority and there was consequent uncertainty regarding leadership negotiations.

In fact, President Trump’s surprise move to potentially impose tariffs on Mexico happened during this month’s survey period.

On the positive side, however, we got confirmation of better than expected GDP growth in Germany and the eurozone. Most analysts are expecting the economic situation to improve during the second quarter. However, some of the heavy lifting for improving the outlook is dependent on the ECB, which is in the middle of defining its new leadership.

Looking Ahead for the Markets

The consensus isn’t really firm around a projected number. Therefore, the market is likely not to price in the expectations for the results. Also, with the wealth of other data coming out at the same time, we could see some substantial moves in the euro, even if ZEW surveys for Germany report in line with expectations.

In terms of getting some direction, we’d probably have to consider how the results compare to the prior month. The question is whether the trend will continue higher or whether we will get the second consecutive move to the downside.

We could find ourselves in one of those self-fulfilling prophecies situations. If most institutional investors hold off on capital spending out of concern over future economic growth, then that growth just might not materialize.

The Eurozone and Germany

With lackluster data and increasing expectations of a rate cut by the Fed, the pressure is building on the ECB to do something to support the economy. The spurt of inflation we had last year is waning. If the situation in Germany continues to be pessimistic, then it adds to the potential of ECB action in the relatively near future.

By Orbex

 

Dollar weakening accelerated on disappointing jobs report

By IFCMarkets

US dollar bullish bets decline accelerated to $31.05 billion from $33.32 against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to June 11 and released on Friday June 14. The dollar weakening accelerated after weak May jobs report supported hopes of Fed interest rate cuts soon following Federal Reserve chair Powell comment the previous week the central bank would ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’.

 

CFTC Sentiment vs Exchange Rate

June 11 2019 Bias Ex RateTrend Position $ mln Weekly Change
CAD bearish negative -2472 646
AUD bearish negative -4401 25
EUR bearish negative -12288 26
GBP bearish negative -3562 228
CHF bearish negative -3122 1421
JPY bearish negative -5201 -70
Total -31046

 

commitment of traders net long short
commitment of traders weekly change
market sentiment ratio long short positions

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

FDX Analysis: Will FedEx’s discontinuation of delivery for Amazon drag on its stock?

By IFCMarkets

Will FedEx’s discontinuation of air delivery for Amazon drag on its stock?

FedEx decided not to continue the contract on air express delivery for Amazon packages. Will the FedEx stock price continue rebounding?

FedEx’s third quarter financial results were below expectations due to slowing global economies: the company reported earnings per share of $3.03, short of analyst estimates of $3.10. Net income fell to $797 million from $1.02 billion compared to the same quarter last year, with revenue rising from $16.5 billion to $17 billion. FedEx announced June 7 it will no longer provide air express delivery for Amazon packages in the US while continuing to serve as a carrier and last-mile delivery partner. Amazon accounted for only 1.3% of FedEx’s total revenue in 2018. FedEx stock dropped less than 1% on the news.

FedEx’s next earnings report is scheduled for June 25. The company is expected to report earnings of $4.89 per share, a 17.26% year-over-year decline. However Zachs investment research company estimates FedEx will record a 3.75% increase in revenue from the year-ago period to $17.96 billion. FedEx’s stocks is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.64. For comparison, its industry has an average forward P/E of 12.92, meaning FedEx’s stock is trading at a discount to the industry. While continuing global growth slowing is a downside risk for FedEx stock, the company is making investments to create new services and streamline in-house network of shipping and delivery services which should boost its competitiveness.

FDX is rising toward MA(50) 06/17/2019 Technical Analysis IFC Markets chart

On the daily timeframe the S-FDX: D1 is retracing higher after falling to six-month low in the end of May.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a buy signal.
  • The Donchian channel indicates uptrend: it has widened up.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal: it is below the signal line and the gap is narrowing.
  • The RSI oscillator is declining but has not reached the oversold zone yet.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 165.79. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the fractal low at 158.07. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (158.07) without reaching the order (165.79), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Buy
Buy stop Above 165.79
Stop loss Below 158.07

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Dollar Firms on Retail Sales, Investors Look to Fed Meeting

By Orbex

The greenback firmed further on Friday closing in the green. The dollar was supported by retail sales data which beat estimates. Retail sales grew 0.5% in May, up from a revised 0.3% in the month before.

Core retail sales advanced 0.5% as well, matching estimates and grew at the same pace as a revised 0.5% increase in the month before. Industrial production was also higher at 0.4%, up from a revised 0.4% decline in the month before.

Euro Slips on Dollar Strength

The euro posted strong losses on Friday, extending the declines for three consecutive days. The International Monetary Fund said that growth outlook for the eurozone remains precarious. Meanwhile, economic data from the eurozone was sparse on Friday.

France’s final inflation data showed consumer prices rising just 0.1% on the month while Germany’s wholesale price index rose at a slower pace of 0.3%.

EURUSD Back at Support – What’s Next?

The declines in the common currency sent the EURUSD down to test the support area of 1.1208. This coincides with the minor horizontal support and the rising trend line. Assuming that the EURUSD is retesting the trend line, we could see some rebound off this level. However, the common currency will need to break out above the 1.1250 level to confirm the upside bias.

eurusd

Oil Subdued as Middle-East Tensions Remain

Crude oil prices were seen trading largely muted on Friday. This came as the US squarely blamed Iran for the attacks on two oil tankers. Despite the headlines that support oil prices, crude oil closed the week down over 2%. Oil traders will, of course, be closely watching the developments in the Straits of Hormuz. Data from EIA also did not help oil prices much as the administration gave a gloomy outlook on demand.

WTI Forming a Descending Triangle

The failure to break the support level at 51.70 has led oil prices to rebound. This has formed a lower high as a result, leading to a descending triangle pattern. If the support is tested once again, there is scope for oil to break down lower. This puts the downside in oil toward the 50.00 handle. Alternately, if there is an upside breakout, then the breach of the trend line should confirm the upside bias. 57.50 remains the upside target.

wti

Gold Retreats After Testing Fresh 2019 Highs

The precious metal continued to enjoy its stellar run as price rallied to test fresh 2019 highs of 1358 on the day. Price, however, retreated intraday to close with a doji. The gains in gold prices come about amid the global narratives as well as the Fed meeting due this week. Various central banks have switched course, taking a dovish stance on monetary policy.

Will XAUUSD Correct Lower?

The precious metal closed on Friday with a doji pattern. We expect to see price drifting lower, which could see a retest of the 1320 level. Testing this level for support on a firm note will establish the upside bias. But, there is a risk of a steeper correction if the support fails. To the upside, the gains are likely to be limited to the 1350 handle for the short term.forex xauusd

By Orbex

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 17.06.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached the predicted short-term target of the third descending wave. Today, the pair may be corrected to reach 1.1230 or even 1.1260 and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1180.

EURUSD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has reached the short-term of the third descending wave. Possibly, today the pair may start a new correction towards 1.2600 or even 1.2640. Later, the market may resume trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.2530.

GBPUSD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken 0.9957; right now, it is still trading upwards inside the third ascending wave. Today, the pair may test this level from above. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 1.0056.

USDCHF_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 108.52 upwards; right now, it is still forming the third ascending wave with the target at 109.16. Later, the market may start another decline to reach 108.52.

USDJPY_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still trading downwards with the target at 0.6830. Possibly, today the pair may be corrected towards 0.6898 or even 0.6925. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 0.6830.

AUDUSD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached the predicted downside target. Today, the pair may start another correction towards 64.37 or even 64.69. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 64.00.

USDRUB_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the first descending impulse; right now, it is being corrected towards 1348.75. After that, the instrument may form the second impulse to reach the predicted short-term target at 1323.25.

GOLD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has broken 62.11 and may continue growing with the first target at 63.22. Later, the market may be corrected towards 61.60 and then form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 66.40.

BRENT_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Quiet Start To The Week Ahead Of FOMC & BOE

By Orbex

Market Waits For The FOMC

The US dollar kicks off the week with a lightly bid tone as the USD index pushes against the 97.10 level from below. Data weakness and dovish Fed commentary have weighed on USD recently. Looking ahead this week, the market is expecting to hear a similar dovish tone at the FOMC meeting due on Wednesday, which should keep USD offered.

ECB Easing Expectations Weigh on EUR

EURUSD remains weak following heavy declines last week. The declines came in response to a dovish ECB meeting. At the June meeting, the bank pushed its rate hike forecasts out further into 2020. It stated that it had also discussed the potential for introducing fresh easing, if necessary, in the event of escalating trade wars and weaker economic activity. EURUSD hovers around the 1.1217 level for now, looking vulnerable to another leg lower.

GBP Down Ahead of BOE

GBPUSD is starting the week under pressure also following a late break below the 1.2604 level on Friday. Ongoing political uncertainty, both domestic and regarding Brexit, is keeping sentiment subdued in the pound. Looking ahead, the BOE meeting on Thursday is likely to hear the bank reiterate its message of concern regarding the Brexit outlook. Expectations are for the BOE to reemphasize the need to wait for further details before making a decision on rates.

Risk Assets Underpinned By Easing Expectations

Risk assets, though a little softer at the open today, have been well supported over the last week. This is due to the wave of expectations for fresh easing from both the Fed and the ECB. The downward impact of Trump’s ballooning trade wars has been offset recently by more supportive language from G10 central banks. This has assuaged any earlier concerns regarding potential rate hikes this year. SPX500 remains atop the 2877.30 level, currently trading 2891.93.

Gold and JPY Down

Safe havens have started the week a little lower today given the general improvement in risk appetite over the last week. Following a quick move above the 1346.97 level last week, gold prices sharply reversed and are trading 1335.24 this morning. However, this is likely on technical selling mainly. USDJPY continues to push against the 108.75 level. The market has not managed to close this back above, following the move below in late May.

Record High US Crude Production Weighs

Oil prices have also had a relatively limp start to the week. Crude is languishing in the lower half of the recent 51.28 – 54.88 range. The market seems to be shrugging off the recent escalation in tensions in the Middle East regarding Iranian attacks on Saudi oil tankers. Recent EIA reports have highlighted soaring US crude production and growing inventory levels which, for now, seem to be driving the price action in oil.

Commodity Currencies Under The Kosh

USDCAD appears to be taking advantage of lower oil prices. The pair is continuing its recovery off the recent mid 1.32 lows to trade back up towards the 1.3469 level. The ongoing trade wars are taking their toll on the Canadian dollar. However, a dovish tone from the FOMC this week could reverse sentiment in USDCAD, allowing CAD to recover.

AUDUSD has started the week at lows with price hovering above the .6862 level. RBA rate cuts, ongoing concerns regarding the US/China trade war as well as a broadly stronger USD over the last month have also conspired to send AUD lower following the recent test of the .70 level. For now, sentiment remains weighted to the downside.

By Orbex

 

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.06.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has broken the previous significant high and may continue the ascending tendency in the short-term. Right now, the pair is being corrected after the divergence; the support is at 1319.85. The next upside targets are short-term and mid-term ones: the former are inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1358.90 and 1365.75 respectively, while the latter are inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1377.10 and 1396.30 respectively.

GOLD_H4_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current descending correction, which has already reached 23.6% fibo. The next downside targets are 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1324.30 and 1313.85 respectively.

GOLD_H1_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is forming a new correction within the long-term downtrend. After completing the correction, the pair may resume falling towards 38.2% fibo at 0.9836. The next downside target may be 50.0% fibo at 0.9712.

USDCHF_H4_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the H1 chart, the rising pullback has reached 38.2% fibo. The next upside target may be 50.0% fibo at 1.0040. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD indicating that the current growth may be over soon. If the instrument breaks the low at 0.9854, the downtrend will continue.

USDCHF_H1_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Gold Gets Ready For New Jump

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Gold prices stopped rising early in the third week of June. On Monday June 17th, the Troy ounce is trading at 1340.10 USD with the last week’s high being at 1362.20.

The key trigger for such impressive dynamics in Gold is the weak USD. After a lot of discussions on the market about a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, the USD got under significant pressure.

A bit later, there were enough confirmations of this scenario from a lot of different monetary policymakers. This week, the Fed is going to have a meeting, but no one is expecting the regulator to cut the rate right now – it’s not the right time or place. However, it’s highly likely that the Fed may provide more details, thus putting even more pressure on the American currency and helping Gold to continue its momentum.

At the same time, physical demand for Gold remains pretty smooth without any surges, but this factor provides no fundamental support to Gold.

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading inside a wide consolidation range; it is forming Expanding Triangle on the top of the rising wave. By now, it has finished the descending impulse towards 1335.85. Today, the pair may form a new consolidation range near the lows to start a correction to the upside with the target at 1348.70. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1323.15. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator, as its signal line is falling towards 0. After breaking this level, the market may boost its decline.

In the H1 chart, XAUUSD is forming a descending wave; it has already completed the first impulse. Possibly, the pair may be corrected towards 1348.75 and then form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 1323.25. The key target is at 1316.50. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator, as its signal line is moving to the downside. After breaking 50, the instrument may fall faster.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

 

 

The DAX30 CFD about to enter bearish seasonal window – but the Fed…

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events June 17, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we enter the start of the trading week the economic calendar is quite thin, so our focus will be on the technical and seasonal aspects of the DAX30 CFD.

From a purely technical perspective, the DAX30 CFD can be considered range-bound on an hourly time-frame between 12,050 and 12,220 points. The bearish tendency into the last weekly close gives the neutral picture a bearish touch, and a sustainable break below 12,050 points would likely be followed by a dynamic test of the region around 12,000 points, a drop below activates 11,900/930 points.

This bearish touch is underlined by a bearish seasonal window beginning today: over the last 21 years, the DAX lost in 16, or 76% of the cases 187 points between the June 17-25. In the other 5 years, the DAX gained on average only 48 points with a maximum drawdown of only 144 points.

But with the Fed rate decision coming on Wednesday and current rising speculation of a equity-friendly rate cut – which is probably also the reason for the dynamic break to new yearly highs in Gold last Friday – we consider anticipating a break lower in the DAX30 CFD to be too aggressive, and favour a short entry only if we get to see a clear, clean, sustainable break below 12,050 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between May 27, 2019, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD daily chart (between March 5, 2018, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

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By Admiral Markets

 

EURUSD: trading between the 112th and 135th degrees

By Alpari.com

Previous:

The majors all closed down against the US dollar last week. The biggest loser was the New Zealand dollar (-2.60%), followed by the Australian dollar (-1.84%), the pound (-1.13%), the Swiss franc (-1.10%), the euro (-1.10%), the Canadian dollar (-1.07%), and the yen (-0.37%).

The EURUSD pair dropped from 1.1289 to 1.1203 on Friday. Sales began in the European session after a breakout of the 1.1265 support. The dollar shot up following the release of US data. The retail sales and industrial production indices exceeded expectations, tempering fears of an economic slowdown.

Industrial production rose by 0.4% MoM against a forecasted rise of 0.2% and a previous reading of -0.4% (revised from -0.5%).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report.
  • 15:30 Canada: foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Apr), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Apr).
  • 15:30 US: NY Empire State manufacturing index (Jun).
  • 17:00 US: NAHB housing market index (Jun).
  • 20:00 Eurozone: ECB’s President Draghi speech.
  • 21:30 Canada: BoC’s Schembri speech.
  • 23:00 USL net long-term TIC flows (Apr).

EURUSD H1Current situation:

The dollar was expected to remain weakened ahead of the Fed meeting, although positive data showed that it’s too early to count the US economy out. US10Y bond yields surged in response, while the major pairs continued downwards.

Today is Monday. Since trading on Friday closed with a steep drop, today I’m looking for movements against Friday’s. The pair is trading between the 112th and 135th degrees, which gives us more reason to believe that we will get a correction. There’s a support at 1.1200. I expect to see the pair recover to 1.1245 by 21:00 EET. The balance line should be at this level by this time.

Could we drop further? Yes, we could. The 135th degree is at 1.185. We could easily drop as far as this to give us a bullish divergence on AO and CCI indicators. Pay no attention to the stochastic going against the trend; we still need additional confirmation.

By Alpari.com