Archive for Financial News

NIKKEI: Technical Analysis – Weaker Japanese data bearish for NIKKEI

By IFCMarkets

Weaker Japanese data bearish for NIKKEI

Japanese export declined while imports rose in July. Will the NIKKEI continue declining?

Recent Japanese economic data were positive after the Bank of Japan June meeting. Japan’s economy resumed growing in the April-June quarter after 0.9% over year contraction in the first three months of 2018. Q2 GDP grew at 1.9% annualized rate. The biggest contributor to the GDP growth was the 0.7% increase in private consumption, which accounts for nearly 60% of Japan’s GDP. However on Wednesday Japan’s finance ministry reported a bigger than expected trade deficit in July. The trade deficit of Y231 billion ($2.08 billion) in July after Y721 billion surplus in June was mainly due to drop in car exports to the US and increase in imports of crude oil and medical supplies. The deficit was much bigger than an expected Y50 billion gap, mostly the result of 5% over year drop in Japan’s exports to the US. Weaker economic data are bearish for NIKKEI.

NIKKEI

On the daily timeframe the NIKKEI: D1 is below the 50-day moving average MA(50) which has leveled off. And the price is testing the support line.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a sell signal.
  • The Donchian channel indicates downtrend: it is tilted lower.
  • The MACD indicator gives a neutral signal: it is below the signal line but the gap is steady.
  • The Stochastic oscillator is rising but has not reached the overbought zone.

We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 21839.00. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the upper Donchian channel at 22831.50. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (22831.50) without reaching the order (21839.00), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Sell
Sell stop Below 21839.00
Stop loss Above 22831.50

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.08.2018 (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM)

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the convergence made BTCUSD reverse and start a new correction to the upside, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next possible targets of this ascending correction are the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 6807 and 7095 respectively. The support level is the low at 5890.

BTCUSD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected. After breaking the local high, the price may grow towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 6783 and 6883 respectively. Another possible scenario implies that the instrument may break the low at 5890 and continue the downtrend towards 5750.

BTCUSD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, ETHUSD is being corrected upwards and has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next upside targets are the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 340.00 and 368.00 respectively. The support level is the low at 250.59.

ETHUSD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current ascending tendency.

ETHUSD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 17.08.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is being corrected upwards. Possibly, the pair may grow towards 1.1430 and then resume falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1238.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 1.2765 and then continue the downtrend towards 1.2600.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating; right now, it is forming another ascending structure with the target at 0.9987. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 0.9945. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 1.0060.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still being corrected. Today, the pair may form another ascending structure to reach 111.66. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend towards 109.72. The short-term target is at 107.40.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating at the top of ascending structure. Today, the price may break the range downwards and continue falling inside the downtrend to reach 0.7133.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is forming another descending structure to break 65.95. Later, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 64.00.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has finished the ascending impulse along with the correction and formed a new consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the price may continue the correction towards 1197.00; if to the downside – start another decline with the target at 1150.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

BRENT

Brent is trading upwards to reach 71.56. Later, the market may resume falling towards 70.65 and then start another growth with the target at 72.95.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2018.08.17

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13464
  • Open: 1.13752
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.24
  • Day’s range: 1.13712 – 1.13775
  • 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

The EUR/USD currency pair began to recover. At the moment, quotes are testing the key resistance of 1.14200. The local support is 1.13700. We recommend opening positions from these marks. A trading instrument is tending to grow.

The news feed on 17.08.2018:
  • – Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00).
EUR/USD

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13700, 1.13200
  • Resistance levels: 1.14200, 1.14700, 1.15200

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.14200, further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.14700-1.15000.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below 1.13700, it is necessary to look for entry points to the market to open short positions. The movement is tending to 1.13200-1.13000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.26958
  • Open: 1.27066
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.11
  • Day’s range: 1.27060 – 1.27350
  • 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

The technical pattern on the GBP/USD currency pair is ambiguous. At the moment, the quotes are in a sideways trend. The key support and resistance levels are 1.27000 and 1.27500, respectively. In the near future, we expect correction of the GBP/USD currency pair. The pound is supported by positive data on retail sales in the UK. Positions should be opened from the key levels.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a decrease in the GBP/USD quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.27000, 1.26600
  • Resistance levels: 1.27500, 1.28000, 1.28400

If the price fixes above 1.27500, the GBP/USD currency pair is expected to grow. The target level for profit-taking is 1.28000-1.28400.

An alternative may be a decrease in the GBP/USD quotes to the level of 1.26600-1.26400.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.31391
  • Open: 1.31537
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.14
  • Day’s range: 1.31480 – 1.31567
  • 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

The USD/CAD currency pair is testing monthly highs. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. Local support and resistance levels are 1.31300 and 1.31600, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks. In the near future, correction of the USD/CAD quotes is not excluded.

At 15:30 (GMT+3:00), core consumer price index will be published in Canada.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a decrease in the USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31300, 1.30900, 1.30500
  • Resistance levels: 1.31600, 1.32000

If the price fixes below 1.31300, the USD/CAD quotes are expected to decline. The movement is tending to 1.30900-1.30700.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the resistance of 1.31600, it is necessary to consider purchases of USD/CAD. The movement is tending to 1.32000-1.32200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.703
  • Open: 110.870
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.24
  • Day`s range: 110.679 – 110.735
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends on the USD/JPY currency pair. At the moment, quotes are declining. Local support and resistance levels are 110.650 and 110.900, respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks. The trading instrument has the potential for further reduce.

The news feed on the economy of Japan is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram has moved into the negative zone, which signals the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is located near the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.650, 110.400, 110.150
  • Resistance levels: 110.900, 111.200, 111.500

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 110.900, the USD/JPY currency pair is expected to grow. The potential of the movement to 111.200-111.500.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the level of 110.650, it is necessary to consider sales of USD/JPY. The movement is tending to 110.400-110.150.

Analytics by JustForex

The Dollar Index Has Moved Away from Annual Highs

by JustForex

The US dollar weakened against the basket of major currencies during yesterday’s trading. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.10%). However, demand for the US currency is at a fairly high level. The sentiment of the financial market participants turned up after it became known that this month the US-China negotiations would be held, where the countries would try to settle the trade conflict.

Yesterday, economic data were also published. The volume of retail sales in the UK increased by 0.7% in July instead of the expected 0.2%. The number of building permits issued in the US increased by 1.5% to 1.311M in July, while experts forecasted a value of 1.310M. However, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to 11.9 instead of 21.9. We expect statistics from the Eurozone and Canada.

The “black gold” prices are declining. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $65.40 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.81%), #DIA (+1.66%), #QQQ (+0.33%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.86%-2.87%.

The news feed on 2018.08.17:

– Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– Core consumer price index in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

Sentiment supported by trade talk hopes, Gold stabilizes

Article by ForexTime

A sense of relief was felt across financial markets following the news that Beijing will resume trade talks with Washington next week.

Although the chances of a breakthrough deal from  lower-level talks are seen as unlikely, the meeting could be a positive step towards easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Asian shares traded mixed on Friday following overnight gains on Wall Street. European equity markets could find support today as optimism over the renewed trade talks boost investor sentiment.

Turkish Lira stabilizes…. but for how long?

The Turkish Lira has staged an incredible rebound against the Dollar this week after freefalling to a record low below 7.23.

The Lira was thrown a lifeline following reports of Qatar pledging $15 billion in direct investments for Turkey. Prices recovered further after the nation’s Finance Minister Berat Albayrak sought to calm investors during a conference call. However, buying sentiment towards the Lira was later dealt a blow, after the United States warned that Turkey will face more sanctions if the US pastor Andrew Brunson is not released.

Taking a look at the technical picture, while the Lira has scope to claw back more losses, gains may be capped by the ongoing uncertainty. The USDTRY has scope to challenge 5.71 if bears can maintain control below the 5.80 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices nudged higher on Friday morning thanks to a softer US Dollar. However, the yellow metal remains on track to post its largest weekly decline since the middle of 2017.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the yellow metal has struggled to maintain its safe haven allure, with investors rushing to the Dollar instead in these times of uncertainty. With the Greenback heavily supported by US rate hike expectations and safe-haven demand, Gold is likely to witness further losses moving forward.

Regarding the technical picture, the yellow metal is heavily bearish on the daily charts. A breakdown below $1171 could invite a decline back towards $1160. A technical rebound back towards the psychological $1200 remains a possibility if bulls are able to push prices back above $1180.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Intraday Analysis 17th August 2018

By Orbex

Australia’s wage report showed that the unemployment rate fell 5.3% in July. The decline came on a slight decrease in the participation rate. Data showed that the economy lost a net 3.9k jobs. This missed expectations of a 15k increase.

In the UK, retail sales jumped 0.7% on the month in July beating estimates of a 0.5% increase. The robust retail sales figures came amid a drop in real wages.

In the U.S., housing starts data showed an increase of 1.17 million. This was below estimates of 1.27 million but slightly higher compared to the previous month.

The U.S. dollar index was seen retreating following the strong surge during the middle of the week.

Looking ahead, the economic data for the day will see the release of the final inflation figures for July. Economists polled expect to see the headline inflation rise 2.1% on the year while core inflation rate is expected to rise 1.1%.

Canada will also be releasing the monthly inflation figures today. Headline inflation is forecast to rise 0.1%.

EURUSD intraday analysis

forex eurusd

EURUSD (1.1382): The EURUSD currency pair closed with some modest gains on Thursday following the doji candlestick pattern that emerged the day before. Price action is indicating a potential turn around but with the failure to clear 1.1400, the risk is equally balanced. To the upside, EURUSD needs to close above 1.1400. The recent dip back to 1.1366 could signal a rebound toward 1.1540 resistance if the upside momentum continues.

USDJPY intraday analysis

forex usdjpy

USDJPY (110.87): The USDJPY currency pair was seen closing bullish on Thursday. Price action remains trading sideways albeit drifting slightly lower. ON the 4-hour chart, the consolidation is seen taking place near the support and resistance level of 111.13 – 110.85 region. We expect the upside to potentially push the USDJPY currency pair toward 112.18 region. There is a chance that the currency pair could be forming resistance at this level which previously served as support. To the downside, the support at 109.45 remains a target.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

forex xauusd

XAUUSD (1176.73): Gold prices pulled back from fresh intraday lows on Thursday. Gold fell to new lows of 1160.32 before recovering to close at 1174. The momentum remains strongly bearish but comes at a risk of a pull-back. The retest of the recently breached support at 1211.50 – 1219.75 remains an ideal price level for a retest. Establishing resistance at this level could keep the momentum to the downside which is however likely to stall in the near term.

By Orbex

EURUSD: pair set to consolidate

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Thursday the 17th of August, trading on the euro closed up. News that trade talks between the US and China are set to resume later this month brought about a correction on the dollar and, in turn, the euro. Market sentiment has shifted, but the big picture is still bearish.

The rate rose to 1.1409. By close, bulls had erased most of their gains. The catalyst for the drop was the US dollar index’s (DXY) rebound from a session low of 96.32, which was a response to US data and a rise in bond yields.

US data:

  • Initial jobless claims: 212k (forecast: 215k, previous: 214k).
  • Housing starts: 1.168m.
  • Building permits: 1.311m.
  • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey: 11.9 (forecast: 21.9, previous: 25.7).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:30 Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Ellis speech.
  • 11:00 Eurozone: current account (Jun).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Jul).
  • 15:30 Canada: CPI (Jul), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jun).
  • 17:00 US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug).
  • 20:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView.

Current situation:

Yesterday turned out exactly as I expected. The bulls visited the 90th degree, from which the pair ricocheted downwards. The 90th degree isn’t a reversal level, but the rebound to resume the trend on dollar index forced the euro bulls out of the long positions they had opened on the back of the initial correction.

The drop came to an end below the 45th degree around the balance line (sma 55). Today, I’m expecting to see our pair fluctuate between 1.1348 and 1.1409. From a technical standpoint, the pair looks set to continue declining, but if you look at the growth from 1.1301 to 1.1409, you’ll notice the similarity this model shares with the current movement, just with smaller fluctuations.

The 4-hour indicators have unloaded and are now in neutral territory. The market is ready for some sharp fluctuations, although my model shows the pair dropping to 1.1350 with a subsequent rebound to 1.1379.

It’s worth paying attention to the Eurozone’s inflation data. It’s important for the ECB. If the actual figures differ from predictions significantly, it will cause a high level of volatility on the market.

​EUR/USD Bullish SHS Pattern Within 1.1350 Zone

By Admiral Markets

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on

The EUR/USD has formed a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern with the right shoulder being within the 1.1350 zone. If the price closes above the trend line, it will mean a potential breakout to the upside targeting 1.1477. However if the price breaks below 1.1330, we could see a retest of 1.1300 with a potential for a further break lower.

W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

M H4 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: ​EUR/USD Bullish SHS Pattern Within 1.1350 Zone


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

All three main US indices log solid gains

By IFCMarkets

Dow logs best gain in 4 months

US stock market ended higher Thursday erasing previous session losses led by telecommunications and consumer staples shares. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 2840.69 with all 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. Dow Jones industrial average rallied 1.6% to 25558.73. The Nasdaq composite gained 0.4% to 7806.52. The dollar strengthening stopped: the live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, fell 0.1% to 96.565 and is lower currently. Stock index futures point to higher openings today.

The news China will send a delegation to the US later this month to resume trade talks, the first such meeting since July, boosted investor confidence bruised by Turkey crisis. Economic data were mixed: initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sank to a 21-month low of 11.9 in August. At the same time construction of new houses increased by less than 1% in July, indicating the recent slowdown in building continues due to higher mortgage rates and growing shortages of skilled craftsmen.

DAX 30 opens higher than main European indices

European stocks ended solidly higher on Thursday. Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD turned higher with both pairs higher currently. The Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.5%. Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.6% to 12237.17. France’s CAC 40 tacked 0.8% and UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.8% to 7556.38. Markets opened mixed today.

EU50

Asian indices recover

Asian stock indices are mostly rising today with trade tensions still in focus ahead of Chinese delegation US visit on August 21 led by Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen. Nikkei ended 0.4% higher at 22270.38 despite yen’s turn higher against the dollar. Chinese stocks are mixed: the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.3% lower while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 0.2%. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index is up 0.2% while Australian dollar extended gains against the greenback.

Brent recovery continues

Brent futures prices are edging higher today. Prices ended higher yesterday after slump on after data from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude inventories rose 6.8 million barrels. Brent for October settlement closed 1% higher at $71.43 a barrel on Thursday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.