Archive for Financial News

NZDUSD Analysis: Slowing New Zealand manufacturing bearish for NZDUSD

By IFCMarkets

Slowing New Zealand manufacturing bearish for NZDUSD

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November. Will the NZDUSD decline?

NZDUSD falling toward MA(200)

The price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows NZDUSD: H1 is trading sideways. The price is falling toward the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is rising. And the RSI oscillator is falling toward 50 level. There is no trend yet formed, traders have to decide when it would be a best time to enter the market.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Metals Reverse On Trade Deal Reports

By Orbex

Gold

The yellow metal was initially higher over the week on continuing market jitters ahead of a potential US-China trade deal. This combined with a weakened US dollar to help lift price.

Into the middle of the week, traders still had not been given great visibility over whether a trade deal was coming. The US administration warned China that, in case of a no-deal by December 15th, a new round of 15% tariffs would go live on $156 billion of Chinese products.

Over recent weeks, talks have seemingly stalled. And, despite reassurances from both sides, the market has been nervous over the prospect of fresh tariffs.

In light of recent efforts by the Chinese (removing some tariffs, increasing US agricultural purchases) there had been speculation that the US would postpone tariffs to allow talks to continue.

However, late in the week, gold was knocked lower. This came in response to reports that the sides had agreed on a phase-one trade deal “in principle.”

The deal is said to include an offer by the US to reduce tariffs on about $375 billion in Chinese goods by 50% across the board, along with the cancellations of the next round of trade tariffs due on Sunday.

This offer has taken traders by surprise. This especially true given that, up until last week, Trump had been adamant against reducing tariffs. This update represents a significant improvement in the relations between the two sides.

Technical Perspective

Gold prices continued to correct higher within the bearish channel which has framed the sell-off from 2019 highs. Price made a further test of the 1481.93 level which is still holding as resistance for now.

For now, we can still view the pattern as a corrective bull flag suggesting that upside could still materialize. If the price can break back above the 1481.93 level, the key level to watch in the short term is 1522.75. This is a major long-term pivot for gold. Above here, the focus will be on a move back up to the recent 1554.69 level.

Silver

Silver prices tracked the moves seen in gold across the week, rising higher to recover off last week’s lows. Along with cross-flow support seen from the safe-haven rally in gold, silver prices have also benefitted from a weaker USD this week.

At its December meeting, the Fed was well in-line with expectations, keeping rates unchanged. The Fed reiterated its message that the current policy rate remains appropriate and will likely continue to be so.

However, again, the Fed added that it would continue to monitor data to ensure economic performance is in line with the outlook. The US dollar weakened on the back of the meeting. Traders judged that the bank is still keeping the door to further easing open.

Technical Perspective

17.3408 has continued to hold as resistance for silver this week. While we can still view the current bearish channel as a corrective bull flag structure, for now, bulls will need to see price quickly back above the 17.3408 level.

Below 17.3408, the next major support level is down at 16.2130. This also holds the retest of the broken long-term bearish trend line. To the topside, the 18.6397 level remains the key marker to break.

By Orbex

 

Equities Rise On Positive Trade Deal News

By Orbex

Equity markets broke fresh ground on Thursday. Reports indicate that Washington is ready to cut the existing tariffs by half on over $360 billion goods.

There is also speculation that the US will cancel the new tariffs due to kick in from December 15th. The news comes just when doubts began to rise on whether both parties would reach a deal before the December 15th deadline.

Euro Trades Weak After ECB Inaction

The euro gave back the gains on Thursday. The ECB held its monetary policy meeting under the guidance of newly appointed Christine Lagarde.

The ECB held interest rates steady and did not make any major changes to its forward guidance.

EURUSD Retreats Off Resistance

The euro hit the resistance price level of the 1.1131 region. Failure to post a convincing breakout above this level saw prices retreating. With resistance established at this level, we expect the common currency to decline in the near term.

The first support level at 1.1100 remains key. A breakdown below this level will signal further losses that could push the euro down to the 1.1072 level.

Crude Oil Prices Hold Steady

Oil prices have held onto the gains from earlier in the week. The weekly inventory report out on Wednesday gave a brief boost.

Commercial stockpiles rose only 800,000 comparing to the expectations of a draw. Combined with the production cuts announced at the recent OPEC meetings and trade optimism, oil prices are maintaining the bullish momentum.

WTI Crude Oil Could Rise Further

WTI crude oil is trading within the rising price channel. This indicates further gains are likely to come. The next upside resistance is at 60.80. But ahead of the gains to this level, we expect to see some pullback. The lower support area at 57.87 – 57.64 could be tested in the short term. As long as this support holds, the upside bias remains.

Investors Shun Gold as Risk Sentiment Rises

Gold prices were down by over 0.4% on the day. The declines came largely because of trade deal optimism.

Gold prices have been caught trading within the range over the past month. While prices got a boost from the dovish Fed outlook, the gains were reversed quickly.

XAUUSD Likely to Maintain the Sideways Range

The precious metal is expected to continue trading flat. The established range of 1483 – 1462 remains for the moment. Unless gold breaks off from this range, we do not expect prices to head anywhere.

The bias remains to the downside, for now. This will especially come if the US and China reach a conclusive trade agreement.

By Orbex

 

Equities Soar On US-China Trade Deal

By Orbex

Dollar Crashes

The US dollar has been heavily lower over Friday morning on the back of the announcement that the US and China have signed the phase one trade deal. With an initial trade deal in place, the next round of US tariffs due on Sunday has now been canceled. The sense of relief is palpable today, with equities having soared to fresh highs and USD lower amidst safe-haven outflows. USD index trades 96.42 last.

EUR Higher on ECB Optimism

EURUSD has been sharply higher today on the back of the weakness seen in USD. In her first monetary policy meeting as ECB chief yesterday, Lagarde struck a slightly more optimistic tone.

She noted that while there are still downside risks to the eurozone economy, these risks have reduced slightly recently. EURUSD trades 1.1177 last, heading back towards 1.1217 resistance.

Conservatives Gain Power

GBPUSD has been sharply lower today. Despite the Conservative party win being seen as a positive for GBP in the medium term, it seems that the initial reaction is one of “sell the fact”.

Focus will now shift to when the parliamentary vote will be held on the PM’s Brexit deal. If the deal is agreed upon, GBP is likely to resume upside. GBPUSD is currently retesting the 1.3376 level from above.

SPX500 Hits New Highs

Risk assets have been firmly higher today. News of the US-China trade deal being signed has seen the SPX500 exploding to fresh, all-time highs, trading 3182.78 last.

With a deal now in place, and with further US tariffs avoided, the market is now hopeful that the two sides can begin to work on delivering a fuller deal to end the 2-year long trade war which has ravaged the global economy.

JPY Down, Gold Higher

Safe havens have been a little mixed tody. While JPY has been heavily lower against USD as a result of the sharp move higher in equities, gold has been a little higher against the dollar a result of the heavy weakness in USD.

XAUUSD trades 1470.59 last, continuing to recover against the post-FOMC crash. USDJPY trades 109.68 last, just below the recent 109.73 highs.

Crude Climbs on Trade Deal

Oil prices have been firmly higher today deriving strong support from news of the trade deal. The prospect of an end to the trade war, greatly improves the outlook or oil demand, keeping price well bid here despite the EIA reporting a further crude oil inventories rise this year.

Crude trades 59.79 last, close to challenging the 60 level which marks the top of the recent range in oil.

Loonie Heads Lower

USDCAD has been sharply lower today as a result of the weakness in USD and the rally in crude. The improved outlook for crude should help keep CAD supported in the near term and traders will be keen to see how the BOC receives news of the trade deal. USDCAD trades 1.3154 last, sitting just above the 1.3145 level for now.

Aussie Fails At Resistance

AUDUSD has been a little lower today, though most likely as a result of technical selling as the pair tested the .6931 October highs. The news of the trade deal should help support the Aussie in the near term, improving commodity prices and the trade outlook between Australia and China.

By Orbex

 

WHEAT Analysis: Lower carryover estimates bullish for WHEAT

By IFCMarkets

Lower carryover estimates bullish for WHEAT

Lower wheat carryover estimates are bullish for wheat. Will the WHEAT rise?

Latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by USDA on Tuesday cut wheat import estimates by 15 million bushels and raised exports by 25 million bushels. At the same time it lowered the carry over projection for wheat by 40 million bushels. These are all bullish developments for wheat. However recent reports projected increased wheat production in Europe and Russia, both major global producers. These are downside risk for wheat price. In Europe, a 14.3% increase compared to last year soft wheat harvest is projected, according to Coceral grain lobby. At the same time USDA forecast 0.7% increase for Russian wheat production in 2019/2, totaling 2.737 billion bushels. USDA projects also increased exports from Russia.

WHEAT retracing toward MA(200) 12/13/2019 Technical Analysis IFC Markets chart

On the daily timeframe the WHEAT: D1 is retracing after hitting 5-month high in the end of November.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a sell signal.
  • The Donchian channel indicates no trend yet.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal: it is above the signal line and the gap is widening.
  • The RSI oscillator is flat above the 50 level.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 542.8. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian boundary at 516. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (516) without reaching the order (542.8), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Order Buy
Buy stop Above 542.8
Stop loss Below 516

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

TWO things Boris Johnson must do now to recover investment and confidence

By George Prior

Boris Johnson faces an uphill battle to recover more than three and a half years of lost business investment and confidence, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, comes after Mr Johnson’s Conservative party secured an emphatic win with a pledge to ‘get Brexit done’ in the UK’s general election.

Investors welcomed the news. The markets jumped and the pound experienced its biggest rally in almost three years.

Mr Green says: “With a clear majority in the House of Commons, the grinding parliamentary Brexit deadlock that has had a stranglehold over the UK will finally come to an end.

“There is now a clear mandate for Britain to leave the EU with Mr Johnson’s deal on January 31.

“The lifting of some of the crippling uncertainty has been welcomed by the markets, the pound and business.”

He continues: “However, now that Mr Johnson has this ‘powerful mandate’, he must use the momentum and immediately begin to recover the more than three and a half lost years of business investment and confidence that the Brexit saga created.

“The Prime Minister and his new government need to do two things as a matter of urgency.

“First, they must set out firm and unequivocal assurances around a no-deal Brexit for the end of 2020. After the passing of the Withdrawal Agreement, they have a tight, 11-month deadline to secure a deal. As such, the UK could still leave the EU without a deal if trade negotiations are not concluded in a timely and successful manner.

“Another cliff-edge of no-deal Brexit would serve as another hammer blow for investment and economic growth.

“Second, Mr Johnson’s administration must actively seek to implement pro-business policies sooner rather than later to stoke enterprise and investment.”

Mr Green goes on to add: “Brexit has cost Britain many tens of billions of pounds. Brexit has inflicted reputational damage on the UK on a monumental scale, which has created unprecedented uncertainty and impacted economic and social progress.

“Now that haemorrhaging of opportunity and money must end.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “The parliamentary paralysis might have ended but the Brexit process hasn’t.  Now the hard work begins.

“For Boris Johnson to maintain the election bounce, he must act quickly and decisively to keep uncertainty at bay. There is much at stake.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.12.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming a continuation pattern around 1.1111 and breaking 1.1153, EURUSD has almost reached the short-term upside target at 1.1098. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate around 1.1180 and expand this range both upwards and downwards, 1.1200 and 1.1155 respectively. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume moving upwards with the key target at 1.1236 if to the downside – start a new correction to reach 1.1111.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.3050 and breaking 1.3225, GBPUSD has almost reached the short-term target of the third ascending wave at 1.3488. Today, the pair may consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1.3420, the market may start a new correction to reach 1.3333; if to the upside at 1.3511 – expand the range towards 1.3539 and then resume moving downwards with the target at 1.3200.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the downside target at 0.9808, USDCHF has formed the ascending impulse towards 0.9870; right now, it is consolidating around 0.9845. Possibly, today the pair may expand this range both downwards and upwards, 0.9820 and 0.9880 respectively. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another correction with the target at 0.9916; if to the downside – form a new descending structure to reach 0.9777.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 109.00; right now, it is still growing towards 109.77. Today, the pair may reach 109.70 and then start a new correction towards 109.40, at least. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach to 109.77.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached the short-term upside target at 0.6916; right now, it is consolidating at the top. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 0.6878 (at least) and then resume moving upwards with the key upside target at 0.6962.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached the short-term downside target at 62.75. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate near the lows. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 62.60, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend towards 62.22; if to the upside at 62.80 – start a new correction with the target at 63.25 and then resume trading inside the downtrend.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is moving downwards with the target at 1.3140. Today, the pair may reach 1.3147 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.3200. Later, the market may resume moving downwards to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the ascending wave at 1486.60 along with the descending impulse at 1468.60; right now, it is consolidating around the latter level. The main scenario implies that the price may form a new descending structure towards 1458.20 and then resume moving upwards to return to 1468.60. Later, the market may start another decline with the target at 1444.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has finished the ascending impulse at 65.15; right now, it is correcting downwards to reach 64.30. After that, the market may start a new growth with the short-term target at 65.90.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is without any particular direction. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to fall towards 7000.00 and then resume moving upwards with the target at 7600.00.

BTCUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Boris Johnson victory: Boost for the pound, economy and UK financial assets

By George Prior

Expect the British pound to soar above predictions to $1.40, billions of pent up business investment to be unleashed to boost the UK economy, and the FTSE 100 to open stronger before paring back, as Boris Johnson’s Conservatives secure an impressive majority in the UK general election.

But there are many serious challenges ahead, warned the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comments: “The pound has enjoyed its biggest surge in a decade on the hopes that a solid Conservative majority can finally end the Brexit deadlock.

“Many traders were caught off guard by the size of the majority and this may push the pound even higher than previous predictions. We could see bullish traders now take it to $1.38 or maybe even as high as $1.40.”

He continues: “With more political certainty due to the large majority, the UK economy is also likely to receive an election bounce.

“Billions of pounds in business investment that has been on the sidelines due to the parliamentary paralysis is now ready to be unleashed. This will give a much-needed boost the slowing British economy.”

He goes on to add: “The UK’s FTSE 100 will open higher on Friday morning. However, this is likely to be a positive knee-jerk reaction, with some gains likely to be given up throughout the day as most FTSE companies earn in dollars and the pound is stronger.”

The deVere CEO also offers a cautionary caveat: “It now looks more likely that Boris Johnson will indeed be able to ‘get Brexit done.’

“His party’s large majority in the Commons helps him pass his Brexit deal and it gives him more political sway when negotiating the UK’s future relationship with the EU and reducing the risk of no-deal at the end of 2020.

“However, there’s still a long way to go. Mr Johnson’s self-imposed end of December 2020 deadline is a mammoth challenge, and a no-deal Brexit is still possible on January 1 2021.

He adds: “The result election also puts a question mark over Scotland’s future in the United Kingdom. The SNP’s gains will embolden them in their key aim of securing Scottish independence.

“Mr Johnson’s monumental task to deliver Brexit with a deal and the Scotland issue will continue to fuel uncertainty in 2020.”

Mr Green concludes: “Boris Johnson’s election gamble has paid off.  Christmas has come early for the pound, the British economy and UK financial assets.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 13.12.2019 (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM)

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, BTCUSD is trading at 61.8% fibo; this movement may be described as a short-term correction. After completing it, the pair may resume falling towards the target at 76.0% (5700.00). At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a more significant correction after the price reaches the target. The key mid-term downside target is the low at 3121.90. The resistance is 50.0% fibo at 8490.00.

BITCOIN_D1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current local correction. By now, the pair has managed to reach 23.6% fibo; at the moment, the price is trading close to this level. The next rising impulse may later continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 8050.00 and 8526.50 respectively. If the price breaks the local support at 6525.00, the correction will be over.

BTCUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, the downtrend has reached 76.0% fibo; right now, ETHUSD is correcting. The resistance is 61.8% fibo at 189.00. After completing this short-term pullback, the instrument may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2 and 161.8% fibo at 134.50 and 123.70 respectively.

ETHEREUM_D1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current correction, which has already reached 38.2% fibo. Right now, the price is trading towards the low at 132.02. However, in the future the instrument may yet resume growing to reach 50.0% fibo at 165.47.

ETHUSD_H4

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD Analysis: Falling German wholesale prices bearish for EURUSD

By IFCMarkets

Falling German wholesale prices bearish for EURUSD

German wholesale price index decline accelerated in November after 2.3% drop over year in October. Will the EURUSD fall?

EURUSD testing MA(200)

The price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows EURUSD: H1 is trading sideways. The price is rising above the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is rising. And the RSI oscillator is rising above 50 level but has not reached the overbought zone. There is no trend yet formed, traders have to decide when it would be a best time to enter the market.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets