Archive for Financial News

Murrey Math Lines 14.04.2021 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

In the H4 chart, USDJPY is consolidating between 3/8 and 5/8. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, rebound from it, and then resume growing to reach the resistance at 4/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards the next support at 2/8.

USDJPY_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator is pretty far away from the price, that’s why the pair may resume the ascending tendency only after rebounding from 3/8 from the H4 chart.

USDJPY_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after rebounding from the 200-day Moving Average, USDCAD is trading below it, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 5/8 and continue the descending tendency to reach the support at 4/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 6/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and resume growing towards the resistance at 8/8.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading downwards.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Intraday Market Analysis – Extended Rally

By Orbex

EURUSD tests major resistance

eurusd

A 2.6% yoy rise in US CPI has so far failed to impress traders as the Fed may remain patient longer than the market.

After a short consolidation around 1.1900, the RSI has receded from the overbought area, laying the groundwork for a new round of rallies. The next target would be the key resistance level of 1.1990 from the daily chart.

A bullish breakout may signal that the euro could resume its year-long rally.

In case of a pullback, 1.1870 is a critical support to keep the optimism intact.

EURGBP builds bullish momentum

eurgbp

The pound struggles across the board after Britain’s economy showed a slower than expected growth in February.

The euro has previously come under selling pressure near the daily supply area (0.8730). The RSI has since retreated into the neutrality zone.

Despite profit-taking, the pair has stayed afloat above 0.8620 which would suggest that buyers are still in control of the price action.

A surge above the said resistance could trigger a runaway rally as a combination of short-covering and fresh buying.

UKOIL trades in narrowing range

ukoil

Brent crude ticked up after data showed oil imports into China surged 21% in March. The price action remains range-bound however for lack of a major catalyst.

The narrowing consolidation is a sign of the market’s indecision and a breakout is bound to happen soon.

A bearish MA cross on the daily chart may weigh on the sentiment but as long as 61.20 holds firm as support, there is a chance of a rebound.

On the upside, a rise above 65.15 could extend the rally towards 68.

By Orbex

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 14.04.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.1877, EURUSD has broken 1.1920 to the upside. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 1.1967 and then start a new correction to test 1.1920 from above. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 1.1980 and then form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.1860.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD continues the correction towards 1.3792. After that, the instrument may resume falling to break 1.3680 and then continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.3590.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After finishing the descending structure at 76.60, USDRUB is expected to consolidate around this level. If the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may fall with the short-term target at 75.57 and then start a new growth to return to 76.60.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After completing the descending structure at 109.16 along with the correction towards 109.54, USDJPY is still falling to reach 108.60. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 109.75.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still falling with the predicted target at 0.9191. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 0.9313.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.7655. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 0.7727 and then start a new decline to reach 0.7454.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is still consolidating around 63.00 without any particular direction; right now, it is trading towards the upside border at 64.05. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow towards 65.50; if to the downside – resume trading downwards to complete this wave at 60.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 66.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 1725.55, Gold has returned to 1749.25. Today, the metal may grow to break 1756.00 and then continue growing with the target at 1795.49.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The S&P index is still growing towards 4160.3. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the first target at 4006.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.14

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1909
  • Prev Close: 1.1947
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.32%

The euro continued to rise against the US dollar on the back of strong ZEW performance and higher yields on German Bonds. Also, the previous comments of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen provide support for the bulls in the euro.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1836, 1.1704
  • Resistance levels: 1.1990, 1.2113

The main scenario for EUR/USD is buying. The technical picture looks bullish. The MACD is above zero, while convergence has formed, indicating a greater likelihood of growth. The ADX is reacting strongly to the northern impulse, showing a rise in bullish pressure.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the level of 1.1905, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1836.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3738
  • Prev Close: 1.3748
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

The sterling rose on Tuesday amid continuing correction in the US dollar and strong manufacturing output. The Office for National Statistics reported industrial growth in February by 1.3%, while economists’ forecast was 0.5%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3680
  • Resistance levels: 1.3848, 1.3929

The main scenario in GBP/USD is buying. The pair came close to the first support level and rebounded. The ADX reacted strongly to Tuesday’s northern impulse, indicating an increase in bullish pressure.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3735, the pound may move to decline to 1.3680.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.38
  • Prev Close: 109.05
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.31%

On Tuesday, the dollar-yen pair continued to decline amid a correction in the dollar index and US Treasuries, the yield of which fell to 1.63%. The market experiences an increased demand for defensive assets, including gold, Swiss franc, and yen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
  • Resistance levels: 110.32, 110.98

The main scenario is selling. The price is still fixed below the moving averages. The MACD fell below zero, and convergence formed on the chart, indicating a continuation of the decline. The ADX shows the growth of the bearish trend potential. By a combination of factors, there is a signal for a further fall in the pair.

An alternative scenario implies the price fixing above 109.40. In this case, the pair may resume growth to 110.32.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2559
  • Prev Close: 1.2531
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.22%

Continuing to trade in a narrow sideways range, the pair came under pressure, as oil prices for WTI rose to $60.80 per barrel. The decline in the dollar index puts additional pressure on the pair.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2522, 1.2501
  • Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2646

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2522 and 1.2629. Specifications are mixed. The price is below the moving averages, although the ADX has reacted to the northern impulse. The MACD is below zero. By a combination of factors, the signal is neutral.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2522, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2501. A breakout of 1.2563 will indicate a further growth to 1.2626.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2021.04.14:
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The MSCI continues to rise amid investor optimism about the global economic recovery while the dollar declines

by JustForex

The majority of Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, following the US stocks and bonds. Investors ignored higher-than-forecasted inflation in the US and focused on the global economic recovery.

Japanese stocks were the exception, falling in light of a slow rollout of the vaccination program. However, the MSCI Global Index climbed to a record high.

European contracts rallied, and US stock futures held steady near highs. The White House said the US vaccination campaign would continue despite the suspension of vaccines from Johnson & Johnson due to emerging health concerns.

Treasury bonds have stabilized. Treasuries yield is around 1.63%. German Bonds are around -0.30%. The US dollar continues to decline, while the New Zealand dollar’s growth is in the lead among the G10 currencies. Oil rose above $60 a barrel.

The latest data showing that US consumer prices rose more than expected last month did not make much of an impact, given the distortion associated with the price collapse a year earlier. Investors remain confident that the recovery continues, supported by central banks and government spending.

“A lot of growth and inflation have already been priced into the market,” said Emily Roland, investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. In her opinion, any surge in inflation in the next two quarters will not have a significant impact on the market.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,134.88 +2.13 (+0.05%)

Dow Jones 33,677.27 -68.13 (-0.20%)

DAX 15,234.36 +19.36 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 6,890.49 +1.37 (+0.02%)

USD Index 91.748 -0.096 (-0.10%)

Important events:
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Earnings Preview: JPMorgan In Focus

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

It’s that time again.

Earnings season is finally here with JPMorgan Chase one of the first big banks to report first-quarter results before US markets open on Wednesday. 

Shares of the American investment bank have appreciated over 21% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 which is up roughly 10%. Banks stocks in general have been supported by the increasingly optimistic outlook for the US economy, vaccine rollouts and prospects of more fiscal stimulus fuelling economic growth. Even Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer (CEO) of the investment bank is optimistic that the pandemic will end with a US economic rebound that could last at least two years.

Market expectations: EPS & Earnings 

Investor sentiment towards JPMorgan chase will certainly be impacted by the pending earnings report later today. According to Bloomberg, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates stand around $3.01 per share on $30.42 billion in revenues for Q1 2021. For a full year, EPS are projected at $11.25 while full-year revenues are seen hitting roughly $118.02 billion – the first decline in five years.

What to look out for…

There seems to be a lot of optimism around the investment bank’s first-quarter results. With adjusted EPS in Q1 forecast to grow a whopping 286.38%, this will be the strongest earnings growth since 2010. Although the massive increase may be partly due to earnings recovering from their painful levels last year, such a figure is still likely to boost confidence over JPMorgan’s outlook.

 

Digging deeper, investors may turn their attention towards the loan loss reserves. 

Higher loan reserves in 2020 highlighted serious concerns about a global economic recession. In a single sentence, the loan loss reserve is the amount banks set aside to cover estimated losses on loans due to defaults. These measures hit earnings as banks set aside money to cover expected loan losses. During the final quarter of 2020, JPMorgan released credit reserves of $2.9 billion which helped boost profits. Much attention will be directed to how much it removed during the first quarter of 2021, as this will not only have an impact on its earnings number but may provide insight into how confident the investment bank is on the economic outlook.  

How about the technicals?

As highlighted earlier, shares of JPMorgan are up over 21% since the start of 2021. Since the start of February, there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows on the daily charts while the MACD trades above 0. However, it seems prices have been trapped within an $8 range over the past few weeks with support at $149.00 and resistance at $157.00.

If the first-quarter earnings meet or exceed the market expectations, this may push the shares of the investment bank towards the $157.00 resistance level. A solid breakout above this point could open doors back towards the all-time high of $161.58 as seen on the FXTM MT4 terminal. Should $157.00 prove to be reliable resistance, a descent towards $149.00 and possibly lower could be on the cards.

 

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Wobbly Wednesday? US earnings preview

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

US stocks showed remarkable resilience during Tuesday’s session in the face of what could’ve been disconcerting news. The US government has ordered a pause to administering Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine. On a separate note, the US inflation figures came in higher than expected.

Still, the S&P 500 climbed 0.33% while the Nasdaq 100 advanced by 1.2%, with both indices boosted by the likes of Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple. The Dow Jones index however ended the latest cash session lower by 0.2%, which means we’ll have to wait a bit more before we can witness 34,000 Dow.

“Markets Extra” Podcast: What is an index and why it matters? A chat with Nasdaq

US equity futures are holding relatively steady as the next earnings season kicks off today.

The Wall Street 30 minis are trying to ease away from overbought territory, ready to relaunch higher when the next opportunity arises.

 

Banks first on the roll call

Financial heavyweights are first out of the earnings gates today:

Note that financial stocks have been the second-best performing sector on the S&P 500 so far this year, having climbed by 18.5% year-to-date as markets pin their hopes on the US economic recovery. However, according to FactSet, less than 50% of analysts have a Buy rating on financial stocks heading into the second quarter. Perhaps some of that pessimism stems from the looming tax hikes and tougher regulations under the current US administration.

Still, for the S&P 500 as a whole, this is set to be a bumper earnings season.

Markets would want to see whether some of these estimates, as gathered by FactSet, actually prove true:

  • Record high increase in EPS (earnings per share) estimates of 6%
  • Highest earnings growth in over 10 years of at least 28%

Already, about 60 S&P 500 companies have issued positive guidance for EPS and sales, with that 60 tally already being a record high. Such has been the optimism leading up to the earnings announcements.

Ultimately, market participants will remain primed to the earnings outlook for the rest of the year, amid the expected economic recovery. Such corporate commentary could determine whether the S&P 500 should soar higher from current levels, even though a pullback from overbought levels appear warranted in the near future.

 

Vaccine woes unlikely to dampen risk appetite … for now

Markets have been willing to ignore Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine pause for the time being, nothing the shots by J&J represent only 3.6% of the near-190 million shots delivered in the US so far. Also, the pause may be lifted in a matter of days.

However, if such concerns escalate and become material enough to derail the economic recovery, that may trigger a pullback in risk assets.

For Johnson & Johnson’s stock itself, should the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) hold steady as a support level, as it did back in early March, that could help its share price bounce back when its single-shot vaccines can be administered once more. The longer the wait, perhaps the stronger the weakening bias for the stock in the interim as shareholders patience wears thin.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

NVIDIA stock break to all-time highs!

By Admiral Markets

Yesterday, shares in Nvidia surged higher to break to a new record high price level – one month before its latest quarterly earnings update. The company’s share price has spent much of the past six months in a trading range between ~$588.00 and ~$470.00.

However, the price has now finally broken through to the upside. An attempt to break to new record highs above this range was made earlier in the year but failed. Price subsequently retreated and went on to trade at the lower support line of the sideways range.

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, #NVDA, Weekly – Data range: from Mar 9, 2014, to Apr 13, 2021, performed on Apr 13, 2021, at 8:30 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 

 

The move higher has been triggered by more than a dozen analysts increasing their price target for the stock due to the launch of a new chip based on Arm technology. It’s also risen due to a more bullish backdrop in the technology sector which has struggled in recent months.

The price on the weekly chart has also most recently rejected the weekly 50-period exponential moving average shown by the red line in the chart above. Historically, the price has overextended away from this moving average, suggesting there could be more further upside yet to go.

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By Admiral Markets

RBNZ Preview: A Warning For The Rest Of The World?

By Orbex

Given the magnitude of the Great Financial Crisis, it’s understandable that traders still have concerns about a potential meltdown of the housing market in any place in the world.

In fact, by some measures, we still haven’t recovered from the GFC.

Most central banks in the world still hold mortgage-backed toxic assets they bought to support the market over a decade ago. In the US, the default rate on home loans is still higher than on credit cards.

Meanwhile, through the developed world, housing prices have cruised higher at a rate around double that of inflation. Which is aided by the fact that most official measures of inflation don’t consider house prices in the basket of consumer goods.

A prolonged period of low interest rates in the US, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe saw people taking out ever-larger loans for homes in a restricted market.

Where are we going?

Despite the economic fallout of covid, housing prices have continued to skyrocket.

That is especially true in both New Zealand and Australia. Both these countries already experienced something of a housing crisis before covid hit. In fact, both the RBNZ and RBA had slashed rates through 2019 trying to shore up their economies.

This left their toolkit somewhat depleted ahead of the travel stoppage and lockdowns.

Now, New Zealand’s economy looks to be on the upswing. The country has once again opened the travel corridor with Australia, allowing visitors for the key ski season.

However, that is likely to only put more pressure on the housing market, as buyers try to lock in lower rates before house prices rise even more.

They aren’t alone

Having been able to prevent the mass spread of covid in New Zealand, at least domestically, the country’s economy is back to normal.

The situation with their housing market, though, might be a sign of what to expect in other parts of the world when their economies normalize before central banks start raising rates.

Because housing is one of the key aspects of the economy, it puts the central bank in an awkward position. Especially in the case of New Zealand.

That’s because NZ is seeing a broader softening in economic growth, outside of the construction industry.

What the RBNZ can do

The government was forced to implement a series of measures seeking to avoid the housing bubble from growing too fast. Chief among those measures was higher taxes.

This is why all analysts aren’t expecting much to happen following the RBNZ meeting. And that’s despite the bank being beyond the limit at which they initially promised to keep rates steady.

There is no press conference scheduled, and the RBNZ won’t be updating its forecasts. Economists are confident that they will likely wait until the next meeting on May 26 to see how effective the government’s measures have been on the housing industry.

More importantly, they will have access to a better suite of data from the first quarter. Including the important jobs numbers!

By Orbex

Intraday Market Analysis – Testing Daily Support

By Orbex

USDCHF retreats to major support

usdchf

The US dollar is treading water as traders await inflation data which would dictate the next movement.

The greenback has fallen back to test the medium-term support (0.9210) from the daily chart after a three-month-long rally.

An RSI divergence right above the key level is a sign that the correction has lost its momentum. Though a bullish breakout above 0.9280 will be needed to confirm a reversal.

To the downside, a drop below the said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9140.

XAUUSD looks for support

xauusd

Gold is striving to consolidate its latest gains after a fall in US yields last week. After having established a solid support base at 1677, the price has rallied back to March’s high at 1757.

A bullish breakout could lead to a sharp recovery as a result of triggering stop-losses and momentum buying.

But for now, an overbought RSI has prompted profit-taking within the supply area. 1730 is the first line of defense as the metal pulls back to rebuild support.

A deeper correction may lead to test 1710.

US 30 rises along the trendline

The Dow Jones flies high after Chairman Jerome Powell expressed his optimism in an interview that the US economy was set for a strong rebound.

Following a breakout above its latest consolidation range (33250), the index has been grinding up along a rising trendline.

The psychological level of 33400 would be the next target for the bulls. Though an overshot RSI may lead to a temporary pullback.

The 30-hour moving average is the immediate support. Further down, 33510 along the trendline may see more buying interests.

By Orbex