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COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold & Steel

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,319 contracts) with Steel (1,136 contracts) also recording a positive contract week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-4,846 contracts), Palladium (-1,912 contracts), Platinum (-667 contracts) and with Copper (-330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent), Silver (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.8 percent)
Silver (93.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.0 percent)
Palladium (15.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (86.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.8 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.6 percent)
Silver (2.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (25.5 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.3 percent)
Platinum (1.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (-0.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	24.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	68.2	5.2
– Net Position:	204,210	-227,498	23,288
– Gross Longs:	278,850	126,925	50,274
– Gross Shorts:	74,640	354,423	26,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	32.5	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.1	23.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	24.5	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.7	7.0
– Net Position:	54,494	-75,196	20,702
– Gross Longs:	83,094	40,745	32,309
– Gross Shorts:	28,600	115,941	11,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.3	2.7	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-13.6	51.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	22.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	45.2	5.0
– Net Position:	58,064	-66,642	8,578
– Gross Longs:	152,807	66,105	23,247
– Gross Shorts:	94,743	132,747	14,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.6	0.0	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-26.9	6.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	25.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	41.3	4.2
– Net Position:	6,797	-12,570	5,773
– Gross Longs:	42,532	20,552	9,143
– Gross Shorts:	35,735	33,122	3,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	60.6	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	1.3	-13.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	56.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	10.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-11,070	10,780	290
– Gross Longs:	5,433	13,294	2,011
– Gross Shorts:	16,503	2,514	1,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	86.5	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	3.3	30.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	80.3	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	69.7	1.1
– Net Position:	-2,663	2,571	92
– Gross Longs:	3,629	19,477	357
– Gross Shorts:	6,292	16,906	265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	14.4	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.6	-1.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

04 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3M & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as eight out of the nine bond markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with an increase in speculator bets this week was the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 1-Month) with a gain of 25,936 contracts.

Leading the declines for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (-82,906 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-79,045 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-56,309 contracts), and the Fed Funds (-48,918 contracts),the 2-Year Bonds (-35,717 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-24,156 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,645 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-1,943 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Fed Funds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (21 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (70.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (20.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (24.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (60.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (65.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (48.3 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (44 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-32 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (43.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (54.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-31.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -315,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	58.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	55.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-315,283	320,426	-5,143
– Gross Longs:	1,553,395	5,975,693	37,317
– Gross Shorts:	1,868,678	5,655,267	42,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	56.2	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	32.0	-0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	63.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	63.5	2.2
– Net Position:	10,346	-8,820	-1,526
– Gross Longs:	342,285	1,170,635	38,611
– Gross Shorts:	331,939	1,179,455	40,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	27.8	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-42.7	-8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,016,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -980,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	80.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	58.7	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,016,443	878,770	137,673
– Gross Longs:	487,267	3,289,154	265,541
– Gross Shorts:	1,503,710	2,410,384	127,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	67.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.6	9.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,146,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -56,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,090,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	83.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	66.2	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,146,598	1,051,309	95,289
– Gross Longs:	434,860	5,032,454	422,885
– Gross Shorts:	1,581,458	3,981,145	327,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	78.2	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.4	1.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -432,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -79,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.3	9.7
– Net Position:	-432,965	457,279	-24,314
– Gross Longs:	451,643	3,428,368	405,462
– Gross Shorts:	884,608	2,971,089	429,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	53.5	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-8.8	-15.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	77.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	60.8	14.0
– Net Position:	-263,683	349,548	-85,865
– Gross Longs:	224,117	1,605,733	202,627
– Gross Shorts:	487,800	1,256,185	288,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	100.0	63.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	28.4	-3.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	70.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	70.5	10.5
– Net Position:	-23,114	-4,607	27,721
– Gross Longs:	258,380	1,105,551	192,864
– Gross Shorts:	281,494	1,110,158	165,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	13.0	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	6.2	-10.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-310,145	309,147	998
– Gross Longs:	139,075	1,318,512	176,104
– Gross Shorts:	449,220	1,009,365	175,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	47.8	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	11.1	-15.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

04 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,935 contracts) with Soybean Meal (17,676 contracts) and Corn (16,744 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-25,101 contracts), Cotton (-9,637 contracts), Soybeans (-7,773 contracts), Sugar (-4,796 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,678 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,750 contracts), Coffee (-3,324 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,432 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (93 percent) and Lean Hogs (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Sugar (5 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and the Corn (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (13.5 percent)
Sugar (5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.9 percent)
Coffee (92.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.0 percent)
Soybeans (7.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (15.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (40.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (30.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (76.2 percent)
Cotton (23.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.4 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.1 percent)
Wheat (50.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.4 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (32 percent) and Wheat (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (18 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and Corn (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-32 percent) and Soybean Oil (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.1 percent)
Soybeans (1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (31.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-32.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-27.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (20.2 percent)
Cotton (-54.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-51.7 percent)
Cocoa (-18.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (21.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -143,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	32.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-143,424	157,105	-13,681
– Gross Longs:	284,015	624,235	138,688
– Gross Shorts:	427,439	467,130	152,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	83.4	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-3.5	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	55.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	58.8	8.9
– Net Position:	40,305	-29,820	-10,485
– Gross Longs:	199,571	460,096	63,606
– Gross Shorts:	159,266	489,916	74,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	100.0	2.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	20.8	-21.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	34.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	65.4	2.0
– Net Position:	68,590	-72,156	3,566
– Gross Longs:	93,006	81,941	8,361
– Gross Shorts:	24,416	154,097	4,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	6.5	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-20.0	29.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -162,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	61.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	38.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-162,343	168,676	-6,333
– Gross Longs:	92,100	447,805	52,018
– Gross Shorts:	254,443	279,129	58,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	91.4	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.7	17.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -56,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	52.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	42.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-56,442	55,356	1,086
– Gross Longs:	109,597	290,371	31,192
– Gross Shorts:	166,039	235,015	30,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	21.3	-10.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	43.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	54.5	5.9
– Net Position:	32,119	-49,108	16,989
– Gross Longs:	130,740	191,673	43,016
– Gross Shorts:	98,621	240,781	26,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	58.3	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.9	-31.5	7.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	49.2	11.6
– Net Position:	43,803	-38,088	-5,715
– Gross Longs:	99,665	97,729	26,257
– Gross Shorts:	55,862	135,817	31,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	76.2	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	33.8	12.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	34.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	48.6	10.4
– Net Position:	51,938	-43,257	-8,681
– Gross Longs:	116,668	102,259	22,574
– Gross Shorts:	64,730	145,516	31,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	29.6	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-12.8	-18.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	43.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	52.8	6.5
– Net Position:	19,222	-18,831	-391
– Gross Longs:	71,065	89,336	12,824
– Gross Shorts:	51,843	108,167	13,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.6	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.5	55.4	-56.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	33.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	54.8	4.1
– Net Position:	27,152	-32,122	4,970
– Gross Longs:	46,931	51,146	11,182
– Gross Shorts:	19,779	83,268	6,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	19.3	-6.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	36.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	27.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-24,456	32,562	-8,106
– Gross Longs:	120,889	132,764	26,535
– Gross Shorts:	145,345	100,202	34,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-18.8	-27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

04 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower speculator net contract positions.

Leading the declines for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (-24,545 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,498 contracts), the VIX (-4,433 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,189 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-3,353 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,654 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-407 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (68.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (48.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (54.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (24 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (45.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (10.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	40.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	33.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-22,433	28,429	-5,996
– Gross Longs:	91,655	152,812	26,276
– Gross Shorts:	114,088	124,383	32,272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.8	10.7	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-22.3	-10.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	76.9	8.6
– Net Position:	43,133	-150,593	107,460
– Gross Longs:	272,813	1,392,147	279,080
– Gross Shorts:	229,680	1,542,740	171,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	19.1	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-36.0	9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	63.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	70.7	12.8
– Net Position:	5,198	-6,639	1,441
– Gross Longs:	17,883	56,959	12,944
– Gross Shorts:	12,685	63,598	11,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	28.6	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	26.1	-3.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	55.1	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	60.8	13.0
– Net Position:	2,772	-14,557	11,785
– Gross Longs:	60,312	139,475	44,588
– Gross Shorts:	57,540	154,032	32,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	36.5	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	3.3	13.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	77.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	70.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-40,289	35,892	4,397
– Gross Longs:	70,255	372,284	26,725
– Gross Shorts:	110,544	336,392	22,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	43.5	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	19.6	-12.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	71.2	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	65.6	16.1
– Net Position:	-1,791	909	882
– Gross Longs:	1,161	11,519	3,490
– Gross Shorts:	2,952	10,610	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	36.2	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	8.1	-13.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	90.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	88.9	1.6
– Net Position:	-11,145	5,989	5,156
– Gross Longs:	27,229	384,166	12,135
– Gross Shorts:	38,374	378,177	6,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	43.2	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	4.7	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

03 May

The British index has updated the historical maximum. Oil lost 5% over the week

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.85%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.91%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.33%. Optimism about the economic outlook is supporting stocks. Stocks have also received support since Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s next move is unlikely to be an interest rate hike. Stock indices maintained gains even after US economic reports showed weekly jobless claims rose less than expected and unit labor costs rose more in the first quarter, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.

On Thursday, Apple (AAPL) reported second-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to better-than-expected performance in its key China market. It also announced the most significant share repurchase in its history. Apple Inc (AAPL) shares rose more than 7% after the report. Qualcomm (QCOM) rose more than 9% after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and predicting third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus. On the downside, Etsy (ETSY) is down more than 16% after the company reported first-quarter gross merchandise sales below consensus.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its 2024 global growth prognosis to 3.1% from a February estimate of 2.9% and said risks are becoming “more balanced.”

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.88%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.63%.

On Thursday, the FTSE 100 Index hit a new record high of 8160 on positive corporate developments. Shell shares rose more than 2.5% after announcing a $3.5 billion share buyback and better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and cash flow.

WTI crude futures stabilized above $79 a barrel on Friday but are still down more than 5% this week as easing fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, signs of increased US oil supplies, and growing uncertainty about the outlook for oil demand weighed on prices. Egypt led efforts this week to restart stalled peace talks between Israel and Hamas. At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hamas to accept Israel’s offer of a ceasefire in exchange for hostages. Meanwhile, OPEC+ said it may extend a voluntary 2.2 million BPD production cut beyond June if oil demand does not recover.

US natural gas (XNGUSD) prices climbed above the $2/MMBtu mark on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive losses. Prognoses point to higher demand next week, including increased gas deliveries to LNG export plants. In addition, the latest EIA report showed that US utilities pumped 59 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas into storage for the week ended April 26, 2024, compared to market expectations of a 55 BCF increase. Inventories are now 34.9% above the seasonal average.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was not trading, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 2.5% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.23%.

Global hedge funds using a strategy of long-short equity market positions are increasingly tilted in favor of China, as evidenced by their active buying of Hong Kong-listed stocks. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 7% in April, posting its best monthly gain since January 2023 and outperforming most significant markets. Swiss bank UBS said in a research note that trends in the Hong Kong market have reversed, unlike in February when the primary inflows came from covering short positions. As Hong Kong stocks rose, fundamental hedge funds with long-short positions continued accumulating shares of Chinese companies.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,064.20 +45.81 (+0.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,225.66 +322.37 (+0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 17,896.50 −35.67 (−0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,172.15 +50.91 (+0.63%)

USD Index 105.39 −0.36 (−0.34%)

Important events today:

– Norwegian NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 May

US Fed tilts towards a rate cut despite the postponement. HKMA left the rate unchanged at 5.75%

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.34%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.33%. US stock indices traded mixed on Wednesday. Stock prices rose after bond yields fell, and Fed Chairman Powell said it was unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike. However, the broader market gave up its gains and declined to close on the prospect of higher long-term interest rates. The broader market also came under pressure after Wednesday’s ADP employment change report for April rose more than expected, indicating a strengthening US labor market and strengthening the case for the Fed not to cut interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell ruled out the possibility of another rate hike, confirming that the Central Bank is leaning toward easing despite the delay. Meanwhile, policymakers acknowledged that inflation has fallen over the past year but remains high, saying there has been no progress on the Central Bank’s inflation target in recent months. Investors now await the critical monthly US jobs report on Friday to gauge the labor market’s strength and determine the future outlook for rates.

Starbucks (SBUX) shares fell more than 15% after the company reported an unexpected decline in comparable sales in the second quarter. Additionally, Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is up more than 13% after it reported first-quarter earnings that beat consensus estimates. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed down more than 8% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $5.4–6.0 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $5.72 billion. Kraft Heinz (KHC) lost more than 6% after the company reported first-quarter net sales of $6.41 billion, below the consensus forecast of $6.43 billion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, about 81% of the S&P 500 companies already reported beat first-quarter earnings forecasts.

European equity markets did not trade yesterday, except for the British FTSE 100 (UK100), which closed negative 0.04%.

WTI crude oil prices stabilized above $79 per barrel on Thursday amid speculation that the US government may move to replenish its strategic oil reserves as it seeks to buy back oil at or below $79 per barrel. However, WTI crude prices remained near 7-week lows and are down more than 5% this week as hopes of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and rising US crude inventories put pressure on the oil market.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.23%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% on May 2, hours after the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. Monetary policy in the Asian financial hub is conducted in line with US policy as the local currency is pegged to the US dollar.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods fell to A$5.02 billion in March 2024 from a downwardly revised $6.59 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of $7.30 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since November 2020, as exports grew slower than imports.

The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 49.0 from March’s three-month low of 48.4. It was the 20th consecutive month of contraction in factory activity as demand remained weak. Declines in output and new orders were more moderate, with overseas sales rising for the first time in a year and at the fastest pace since April 2021. Employment remained flat after three consecutive monthly declines. On the other hand, purchasing activity declined, and delivery times fell marginally.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,018.39 −17.30 ((−0.34%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,903.29 +87.37 (+0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 17,932.17 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,121.24 −22.89 (−0.28%)

USD Index 105.63 −0.59 (−0.56%)

Important events today:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 May

Brent crude oil hits seven-week low

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices have dropped to $83.95 per barrel on Thursday, marking the lowest level in seven weeks. This decline follows recent US statistics indicating a significant increase in crude oil inventories and production. According to the Department of Energy, inventories rose by 7.30 million barrels last week, contrary to the forecasted decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Additionally, February’s oil production escalated to 13.15 million barrels per day from January’s 12.58 million, the most substantial monthly increase in three and a half years.

These developments have provided bearish signals for the market, mirroring similar trends on the commodity platform.

Amidst falling oil prices, there is ongoing discussion about potential US actions to replenish their strategic hydrocarbon reserves, particularly if prices drop to $79.00 per barrel or below.

The oil market is also influenced by some stabilisation in the Middle East, with emerging hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by Egypt. This development has reduced the risk of a broader conflict in the region, contributing to the decrease in oil prices.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent oil has formed a consolidation range around the $87.50 level, with the current correction wave extending downwards. The price has already reached $83.50, and a further stretch to $82.82 is possible. Upon completing this correction, a new wave of growth towards $88.60 is anticipated, potentially continuing to $95.00. This bullish scenario is supported technically by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero, suggesting a forthcoming update of the lows.

On the H1 chart, a fifth correction structure is developing towards $82.72. Once this target is achieved, a growth phase to $88.58 is expected, marking the first target of the new growth wave. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 and poised to descend to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

02 May

Target Thursdays: USDJPY, Copper & EURCAD

By ForexTime

USDJPY sees over 700-pip swing

Copper selloff rewards bears

EURCAD hits all bearish targets

It has been an intense trading week for financial markets.

More action could be expected due to corporate earnings and the US jobs report on Friday.

In the meantime, check out how these trading setups performed this week:

1) USDJPY joins monster movers!

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our trade of the week article published on Monday 29th April:

The USDJPY demanded our attention after tumbling over 500 pips from its multi-decade top.

We highlighted that “sustained weakness below 155.00 may open a path back towards 154.20 and 153.60.”

What happened since TP was published?

The Yen’s aggressive appreciation on Monday morning fueled speculation around possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

A second suspected bout of intervention took place on Wednesday right after the US markets closed, sending the USDJPY as low as 153.00.

When considering how the USDJPY hit an intra-week peak at 160.22, this means the major currency pair has experienced an over 700-pip swing!

How much in potential profits?

Those who took advantage of the move below 155.00 would have been rewarded 140 pips.

2) Copper slips below $4.5

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

After hitting a fresh two-year high this week, FXTM’s new commodity Copper is under pressure.

Although the fundamentals favour further upside, in our article on Tuesday – we cautioned that “a technical throwback could be in play on the H1 charts with prices testing potential support levels”

What happened since TP was published?

Since punching above the $4.65 level, prices have tumbled over 3% lower amid potential profit taking.

How much in potential profits?

Traders who entered at $4.54 and exited at the $4.50 level would have caught a near 1% move to the downside.

3) EURCAD hits all bearish targets

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (EURCAD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

What happened since TP was published?

The EURCAD slipped this morning as Canadian Dollar drew support from the rebound in oil prices.

How much in potential profits?

EURCAD has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at 1.46969 and exited at the final target level of 1.46795 would have gained 17 pips.

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 May

WTI oil declines on rising inventories and negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Rising unemployment in New Zealand may force RBNZ to start cutting rates earlier

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.49%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) was down 1.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 2.04% yesterday. Rising labor costs pushed bond yields higher and pressured stocks. The US Employment Cost Index for the first quarter rose more than expected, which is hawkish for Fed policy.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting today. The rate is expected to be kept at 5.5% at this meeting, so traders will focus on the FOMC statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Higher inflation and strong activity and employment figures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut. Markets now forecast a rate cut of 3 bps by June, 20 bps by September, and 36 bps by December. This is a striking change considering that just three months ago the market was fully discounting 150 bps of rate cuts this year from the March FOMC meeting. So if Jerome Powell announces that the rate cuts have been pushed to late summer or fall/winter, that would be a major support for the US dollar and a negative for indices and precious metals.

Amazon (AMZN) reported strong first-quarter results Tuesday, led by growth in its cloud computing division and new advertising dollars from its Prime Video streaming service. Shares of Amazon.com Inc. rose about 2% in after-hours trading.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.03%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.99% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 2.22%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04%.

The Eurozone inflation report showed a decline in the core index (excluding volatile food and energy prices) for April to a 2-year low of 2.7% y/y, which is dovish for ECB policy. ECB Governing Council spokesman Villeroy de Galhau said that Eurozone inflation data for April gives the ECB the confidence to start cutting interest rates in June. Eurozone Q1 GDP grew by 0.3% QoQ and 0.4% YoY, stronger than expectations of 0.1% QoQ and 0.2% YoY. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 87%.

WTI crude oil prices fell towards $81/bbl on Wednesday, declining for the third consecutive session as an industry report pointed to a sharp rise in US crude inventories, while hopes of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East continued to weigh on oil prices. API data showed that US crude inventories rose by 4.906 million barrels last week after declining by 3.23 million barrels the previous week, the biggest increase since mid-March. On Tuesday, the US EIA also reported that US oil production rose to 13.15 million barrels per day in February from 12.58 barrels per day in January, the biggest monthly increase in 3.5 years.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.09% for Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.35%.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the first quarter, exceeding forecasts and the highest in three years, while employment unexpectedly fell by 0.2%, putting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on track to cut interest rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve. Investors are betting on a fourth-quarter RBNZ rate cut, although some expect the official money rate to remain unchanged until 2025.

Judo Bank Flash Australian manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 in April from 47.3 a month earlier, according to the final estimate. This was the third consecutive monthly deterioration in conditions in the manufacturing sector, albeit slight. New orders for goods continued to fall, attributed to subdued market conditions and the impact of higher interest rates.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,035.69 −80.48 (−1.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,815.92 −570.17 (−1.49%)

DAX (DE40) 17,932.17 −186.15 (−1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,144.13 −2.90 (−0.04%)

USD Index 106.26 +0.68 (+0.64%)

Important events today:

– New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 00:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 May

Bitcoin stumbles below $60k ahead of Fed

By ForexTime

Bitcoin ↓ over 15% in April

Crypto hit by “higher for longer” stance

Fed meeting in focus

261.8 Fibonacci level key reference point

RSI signals that prices are near oversold

Could the party already be over for Bitcoin bulls?

Well, the “OG” crypto ended April over 15% lower despite the infamous halving event almost two weeks ago.

Investor appetite for Bitcoin has been hit by the prospects of “higher for longer” US interest rates with ETF outflows feeding bears further. According to Bloomberg, a group of almost a dozen US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $182 million in April.

Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, we may have entered a phase in the crypto currency’s evolution where it responds more to economic data releases, especially from the U.S.

Market participants will today have their attention turned towards the U.S Federal Reserve rate decision this evening which is expected to conclude with rates left unchanged at 5.5%.

So, attention will be directed towards the policy statement and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for fresh clues on the central bank’s next move.

And that’s not all…

Friday’s US jobs data promises to rock this crypto as investors are looking to see data continue to show strength in the US labor market.

Average Hourly Earnings: est. 0.3%

Unemployment rate: est. 3.8%

Non-Farm Employment Change: est 240k

Note: Traders are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis point cut by November with a move fully priced in for December.

Bitcoin has already shed roughly 6% today and may extend losses if the Fed strikes a hawkish stance.

From an Elliot Wave perspective, Bitcoin is in a correction phase following its year-to-date high of $73850, which marked the end of wave 5.

It has since been confined within a downward-sloping channel, later morphing into a falling wedge.

While putting this article together, Bitcoin is piercing through the downward-sloping support line. A break will only be confirmed if we have the current daily candle stick close below the support line.

A break of the lower downward sloping line (support) which has acted as a demand zone since March 5th, 2024, may see Bitcoin bears (those looking to see the cryptocurrency decline further) set their sights on the following near-term support levels.

58054.45: The 261.8 Fibonacci level
54969.63: An important price value
50000: A psychologically important round number

The Fibonacci level is taken from the November 21st low of 15475.50 to the July 13th, 2023, high of 31789.20.

On the other hand, Bitcoin bulls, (those looking to see the cryptocurrency rally), may have their eyes set on the following near-term resistance levels.

58054.45: The 261.8 Fibonacci level
59423.42: The downward-sloping trendline of the falling wedge
63575.67: The upper resistance of the downward-sloping channel

When considering the Relative strength index, – an indicator that identifies overbought (too many buyers) and oversold zones (too many sellers), It is worth noting that Bitcoin is flirting with the oversold level

Article by ForexTime

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