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Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 20.06.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After reaching 1.1535, EURUSD has completed the correction to the upside and returned to 1.1595. Possibly, today the price may form another descending structure. The next target is at reach 1.1480. Later, the market may grow towards 1.1535 and then fall with the target at 1.1430.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving downwards. Possibly, the pair may be corrected towards 1.3255 and then fall to reach 1.3066. After that, the instrument may start another correction to return to 1.3160 and then resume its decline with the target at 1.3022.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating again. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 0.9900. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and then continue trading upwards to reach 1.0020.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading to rebound from 109.58; it is consolidating in the center of the range. If later the pair breaks this range to the downside, the market may fall towards 109.40; if to the upside – continue trading upwards to reach 111.11. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading downwards with the target at 107.90.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling. Possibly, the pair may reach the short-term target at 0.7345 and then start another correction towards 0.7480. After that, the instrument may resume trading to the downside to reach the main target of this wave at 0.7292.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has expanded its consolidating channel upwards. Possibly, today the price may fall towards 62.56 and then form another ascending structure to reach 64.24. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 62.56.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed another consolidation range around 1277.00. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading downwards to reach 1240.00 and then start a new correction with the target at 1304.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

BRENT

Brent is still being corrected inside the Flag pattern. Today, the price may form another descending structure to reach 71.80 and then resume growing towards the first target at 76.90.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Intraday Analysis 20th June 2018

By Orbex

The U.S. dollar managed to turn fairly stronger on the day on Tuesday. Economic data was limited. The U.S. building permits data showed an increase of 1.30 million. This was slower than the estimates of a 1.35 million increase. Housing starts fared better, rising 1.35 million and marked the highest increase on a month over month basis.

The market uncertainty continued with the U.S. President Trump announcing fresh tariffs on China which sent the equity markets closing lower on the day.

The lineup of speeches from various central bank chiefs takes precedence today. The speeches include that from the ECB President, Mario Draghi, BoJ’s Kuroda, and the Fed’s Powell. The central bankers are converging in Portugal for a banking conference.

It was only last year that the ECB President, Draghi talked up the euro currency which sent the currency pair rallying to fresh highs.

On the economic front, the U.S. existing home sales data will be coming out followed later in the evening by New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report. The quarterly GDP is expected to rise at a pace of 0.5%, slightly slower than the 0.6% increase that was registered in the previous quarter.

What is your knowledge like on economic data releases and how they affect the market? Learn more!

EURUSD intra-day analysis

eurusd forex intraday analysis 20th june

EURUSD (1.1574): The EURUSD currency pair formed an outside bar yesterday with the intraday gains failing to hold. The currency pair closed on a bearish note. The declines came following Draghi’s comments from Portugal where he reiterated his comments from the recently held ECB meeting. Price action was seen to be steady above 1.1539 level of support for the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD broke out to the downside from the bearish flag pattern only to retrace the losses rather quickly. Still, a close below the previous low at 1.15594 could suggest further declines.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

usdjpy forex intraday analysis 20th june

USDJPY (110.09): The USDJPY currency pair was seen to be closing bearish but price action managed to pullback from intraday lows of 109.57. Still, the near term retracement following the downside breakout from the rising trend line is expected to keep the bias to the downside. Failure to breakout above the trend line could signal another retest back to the support level at 109.57. There is also a possibility that USDJPY could break out from the bearish flag pattern which is yet to be validated.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

xauusd forex intraday analysis 20th june

XAUUSD (1273.91): Gold prices continued to inch lower despite the broader market sentiment. Price action is seen hovering near the 1274.50 level of support marking the lower end of the support zone at 1282 and 1274. A close below this level could signal continued decline in price action. The declines come following a period of consolidation in price action below the 1304 – 1301 level of resistance. A break down below 1274 could trigger further declines to the next main support at 1242.25.

ForexTV

 

 

EURUSD: euro to drop towards the US session

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Tuesday the 19th of June, trading on the euro closed down. After an upwards correction to 1.1645, the euro slid to 1.1531 (-114 pips) during the European session. The greenback climbed across the board on the back of an escalation to trade dispute taking place between China and the US, piling further pressure on the EURUSD pair. Mario Draghi’s comments also weighed on the euro, although this news is playing second fiddle to the trade war. When the US session came around, the rate corrected to 1.1596.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:00 Eurozone: ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech.
  • 13:00 UK: CBI industrial trends survey – orders (Jun).
  • 13:30 Eurozone: ECB Cœuré Speech.
  • 15:30 USA: current account (Q1).
  • 16:30 USA: Fed’s Powell speech.
  • 16:30 Japan: BoJ Governor Kuroda speech.
  • 16:30 Eurozone: ECB President Draghi speech.
  • 16:30 Australia: RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe speech.
  • 17:00 USA: existing home sales (May).
  • 17:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks (15 Jun).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The euro dropped to the 90th degree in the space of 6 hours. The rebound from the 45th degree amounted to 45 degrees. Growth was held up by the horizontal Gann level along with the balance line. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1581.

I think that pressure on the euro is going to remain in place. The real question is whether it’s going to start declining straight away or a few days from now. I also considered that the pair might consolidate within the channel (dashed lines) in a range of 1%. On the current hour, its boundaries are at 1.1523 and 1.1638.

Today (Wednesday), it’s worth keeping an eye on all the speeches from the heads of central banks; with Powell, Kuroda, Lowe, and Draghi all set to speak. Their words could turn out to have no influence on markets, but it’s better to be prepared for a surge in volatility just in case.

Considering that the euro crosses were all declining when I made my forecast, I expect the euro to drop to 1.1518. The lower line of the channel will act as a support.

The hourly stochastic indicator is in the buy zone. This means that the drop may be delayed for 4 – 5 hours. The AO and CCI are both in neutral territory, so the euro will follow the lead of other currencies. At the moment, most currencies are trading down against the US dollar. The dollar is recouping its losses against the yen and franc.

​GOLD Regular Bullish Divergence at W L3 Support

By Admiral Markets

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on

The Gold has made a big drop towards the W L3 level where it found a support. However the MACD is showing a regular divergence at the bottom. We can also see a descending trend line that marks a potential bullish breakout. The divergence will become valid if the Gold breaks and closes above the red descending trend line ( around 1275) and that could push the pair up. However a close below 1270 could make a divergence invalid and the Gold should drop towards 1266 and 1260.

W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

Best wishes,

Follow Admiral Markets on Facebook – @AdmiralMarkets on Twitter – for the latest market updates.

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: ​GOLD Regular Bullish Divergence at W L3 Support


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

Global equities retreat on escalating trade war fears

By IFCMarkets

Dow falls sixth session in a row

US stocks continued retreating Tuesday after President Trump’s Monday threat of additional $400 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods if China didn’t revoke its retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The S&P 500 ended 0.4% lower at 2762.57. Dow Jones industrial average dropped 1.2% to 24700.21. The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.3% to 7725.59. The dollar strengthening resumed as housing starts in May were above expected, hitting 11-year high: the live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, rose 0.3% to 94.989 and is up currently. Stock index futures point to higher openings today.

DAX still biggest loser as European indices fall

European stock indices extended losses Tuesday as US-China tariff war escalated after President Trump said he ordered drawing up list of Chinese goods for additional $200 billion tariffs if China doesn’t cancel its retaliatory tariffs. The eurojoined British Pound’s slide against the dollar and both currencies are receding currently. The Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.7%. The German DAX 30 dropped 1.2% to 12677.97. France’s CAC 40 fell 1.1% and UK’s FTSE 100 lost 0.4% to 7603.85. Indices opened 0.3% – 0.7% higher today.

Asian indices recover

Asian stock indices are mostly higher today despite continued US-China trade dispute. Nikkei gained 1.2% to 22555.43 as the yen slide against the dollar resumed. Chinese stocks are rising after China’s central bank said the country should cut banks’ reserve requirement ratios to boost market liquidity: the Shanghai Composite Index is up 0.3% and Hong Kong’sHang Seng Index is 0.6% higher. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index is up 1.2% despite Australian dollar turning higher against the greenback.

AU200

Brent futures prices are recovering today on expectations of US crude stockpiles draw and Libya supply disruption concern. The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that US crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels to 430.6 million. Prices ended lower yesterday: August Brent fell 0.4% to $75.08 a barrel Tuesday. Today at 16:30 CET the Energy Information Administration will release US Crude Oil Inventories.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
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Commodity currencies continue to come under pressure

Article by ForexTime

The USD faltered slightly today, but not against other American currencies as it surged yet again against the CAD to extend for the 4th day in a row. US data today was a mixed bag with US building permits slightly down to 1.3M (1.5M exp), while US housing starts lifted to 1.35M (1.31M exp) which is a good sign in the lead up to summer. However, the major focus thus far has been on the trade threats Trump is making against China after they looked to impose tariffs as well on the US markets in retaliation. The main loser in such a scenario is likely to be the US consumer in the long run as costs are passed a long, and it could in theory dampen consumer spending over all. Most economists now believe though that nothing will spiral out of control as some have predicted, as Trump has shown he is capable of reversing decisions just as quickly if he feels like he has made some ground. For now though the USD may have moments of panic, but against its neighbours like the CAD it is making some serious ground.

A quick look at the USDCAD on the charts shows how quickly it has broken ground over the last few days, as it freed itself from the bullish trend line and has just stopped short of resistance at 1.3296. With such large bullish moves the USDCAD is starting to look a little oversold as it pushes over the 70 mark on the RSI. Previous touches on the daily chart in the past few months have lead in part to sell-offs so it should be something to be aware of. In the event that the USDCAD does come under pressure from traders exiting then support can be found at 1.3232 and 1.3101 in this instance. With the long term bullish trend line also worth paying attention to as well.

Previously mentioned yesterday was of course the AUD and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy minutes. Yesterdays minutes were anything but hawkish with the RBA looking very uncertain about the prospect of a rate rise in the near future. This is in part to the fact the labour market is not looking as strong as expected and inflation is still looking a little subdued. However, the weakness in the AUD will obviously pay off in the long run when it comes to boosting inflation and helping drive job growth – if it holds.

The AUDUSD has moved down the charts and is looking weaker as a result, but it managed to claw back some ground against the USD after almost touching resistance at 0.7341. The AUDUSD is now resting just above resistance at 0.7371 and potentially could have another crack if the upcoming NZD data is weaker as well, as it has the potential to drag the AUD down with it. All in all, bearish sentiment still remains here and the commodity currencies are going to have a hard time in the future until interest rates start moving.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Morocco maintains rate on moderate underlying inflation

By CentralBankNews.info
      Morocco’s central bank continued to keep its monetary policy rate at 2.25 percent, unchanged since March 2016, saying underlying inflation remains moderate despite the recent rise in headline inflation which is based on changes to the consumer price index along with higher prices of volatile food products and tariffs on regulated prices.
       Underlying inflation is forecast to average 1.1 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2019, the Bank of Morocco, or Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), said. This forecast is down from March when BAM forecast 2018 underlying inflation of 1.4 percent and 1.9 percent in 2019.
      Morocco’s headline inflation rate rose to 2.7 percent in May from 2.5 percent in April and BAM expects inflation to average 2.4 percent this year and then ease to 1.4 percent in 2019.
      The forecast for 2018 headline inflation is sharply up from the previous forecast in March of 1.8 percent while the 2019 forecast is largely similar to the previous 1.5 percent forecast.
      After slowing in 2016, Morocco’s economy recovered last year and is forecast to continue to expand this year on good agricultural production and improved non-agricultural activities.
      Last year Morocco’s economy grew by 4.1 percent, up from 1.1 percent in 2016, and BAM forecast 3.6 percent growth this year and 3.1 percent in 2019.
      In March BAM raised its 2018 growth forecast to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent but lowered its 2019 forecast to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent.
      Exports from Morocco are expected to continue to rise this year, with exports and the automotive industry getting a boost next year from start of production at the Peugeot Citroen plant near Rabat which is planned to produce 100,000 cars next year before total output of 200,000 vehicles and 200,000 engines at its final stage.
     BAM forecast goods export to rise 5.8 percent this year and 6.9 percent in 2019, with tourism revenue up 8 percent this year and 4 percent in 2019.
      The current account deficit is seen easing to 3.6 percent of GDP in 20189 from 4.1 percent this year while foreign exchange reserves are seen ending this year at 255.4 billion dirhams and 245.9 billion by end-2019, enough for more than 5 months of imports.
      In January last year Morocco introduced a more flexible exchange rate system by widening the dirham’s fluctuation band against hard currencies to 2.5 percent on either side from 0.3 percent for a total range of 5.0 percent.
      The dirham is mainly pegged to the euro but last year BAM reduced the euro weight to 60 percent from 80 percent and raised the U.S. dollar weighting to 40 percent from 20 percent.

      Today the dirham was trading at 9.54 to the U.S. dollar, down 2 percent this year, and at 11.06 to the euro, up 1.4 percent this year.

The Aussie is Falling: Investors are Getting Away From Risks

The Australian Dollar is under pressure against the USD due to the market situation. On Tuesday afternoon, the Aussie is getting weaker mostly because investors are choosing “safe haven” assets, such as the USD and the Yen, in order to avoid risks.

At the time when everybody is running away from Chinese-American “trade wars” risks, it can be quite clearly seen that the demand for “safe haven” assets in significantly increasing. In this light, one may expect the Australian Dollar to continue trading downwards, at least until the balance of power on the market changes.

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes report published by Australia today says that the expensive national currency prevents the country’s economy and the Consumer Price Index from growing. Now, when the Australian Dollar is under pressure, the Australian GDP may boost a little bit. The report also says that the areas that require greater attention are still the labor market and the inflation. Expectations for the GDP growth are 3% while the inflation target remains at 2%.

A special focus in the RBA Minutes is put of “trade wars” risks. The regulator believes that the current tariff adjustment in world commerce implies many risks and may force the global economy to slow down. In the present context, such comments may be very essential, because the USA and China don’t seem to stop fighting without outside interference.

In general, the Australian Dollar would feel more stable and confident, if there weren’t so many emotions on the market right now.

Since the “market crowd” is usually driven by emotions instead of the common sense, one can see that the technical picture of AUDUSD is still showing the downtrend. If one takes a look at the previous correction to the upside, it can be seen that after breaking the support line, the pair has formed a new descending impulse and reached the projected support line. While forming the impulse to the downside, the instrument is moving towards the long-term fractal low at 0.7328. After breaking it, the price may test the support line of the long-term channel at 0.7275. This is exactly the area, which the price may rebound from.

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

 

Investors on high alert as trade tensions intensify

Article by ForexTime

Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose fresh tariffs on China has roiled financial markets and left investors on high alert.

In a shocking development, Trump yesterday warned of his intention to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. This undesirable move is likely to worsen US-China trade relations and fuel concerns of a potential global trade war. The ongoing friction between the two nations has clearly kept market players on edge, with global stocks sliding amid the growing caution. With the escalating ‘tit-for-tat’ trade war seen as a major risk to global stability, investors may offload riskier assets for safe-haven investments.

More pain ahead for emerging markets?

Emerging market currencies have been treated without mercy by a broadly stronger Dollar.

The intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China simply added to market jitters, consequently weighing heavily on emerging markets. While the prospect of higher US interest rates is likely to stimulate fears of capital outflows from emerging markets, global trade concerns present a major risk. Intensifying trade tensions may trigger fears of increasing global protectionism negatively impacting growth in developing nations – ultimately spelling more trouble for EM currencies and stocks.

South African Rand crumbles

The South African Rand has tumbled to its lowest levels in over six months as escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies eroded appetite for riskier currencies.

An appreciating Dollar simply compounded to the Rand’s woes with price punching above 13.90 as of writing. It must be kept in mind that the Rand was not alone, as other major emerging market currencies were under attack from a broadly stronger Dollar. The Rand has scope to weaken further if the Dollar continues to strengthen and global trade fears dent risk sentiment.

Oil slips on eroding risk appetite

A lack of appetite for risk amid the US-China trade dispute has resulted in Oil prices depreciating today.

Market expectations over OPEC and Russia easing supply curbs to counterbalance falling output from Venezuela as well as production outages from Iran have eroded appetite for the commodity. Although a hike in production output seems to be priced in, Oil remains at risk of depreciating further if Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna ends in an impasse. It must be kept in mind that Iran, Venezuela and Iraq are expected to veto any decision made by Saudi Arabia and Russia to raise production levels. Any disagreements or infighting between cartel members during the talks may trigger fears over the future of OPEC’s production cut deal.

WTI Crude is currently bearish on the daily charts with prices breaking below $65.00 this afternoon. Sustained weakness below this region could encourage bears to target $64.35 and $64.00, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold has descended into the abyss despite intensifying trade tensions rattling financial markets and leaving investors on edge. The driver behind Gold’s depreciation remains an appreciating US Dollar.

With the Dollar likely to find ample support amongst the bullish sentiment towards the US economy and heightened expectations of higher US interest rates, Gold could be poised for further punishment. While the argument for the precious metal to potentially rebound may be based around trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, an appreciating Dollar could continue obstructing any upside gains.

Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is under pressure on the weekly timeframe. Sustained weakness below $1,280 level could be an early indication that bears are back in the game. Previous support at this level could transform into a dynamic resistance that opens a path towards $1,264.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

BRENT: Technical Analysis – Higher expected crude output bearish for Brent

By IFCMarkets

Higher expected crude output bearish for Brent

OPEC and Russia are expected to raise output to offset Venezuela and Iran supply shortfalls. Will Brent prices continue the decline?

Major crude oil producers will meet Friday to discuss crude oil production quotas. Saudi Arabia, the major oil producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is considering an output boost of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day, according to media reports. Russia, another top world producer of crude oil, is considering expanding its output by as much as 1.5 million barrels. Higher expected output forecast is bearish for Brent.

Brent price

On the daily timeframe the BRENT: D1 has been trading with negative bias after hitting thirty-one-month high in mid-May. It had breached below the 50-day moving average MA(50) which is leveling off.

We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price closes below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 72.21. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above last fractal high at 77.91. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (77.91) without reaching the order (72.21, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Sell
Sell stop Below 72.21
Stop loss Above 77.91

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets