Archive for Financial News

WTI Crude Oil Speculators trimmed bullish bets after 8 weeks of rises

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators edged their bullish net positions slightly lower in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 515,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly fall of -1,404 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 516,662 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -5,656 contracts to a weekly total of 616,110 contracts that more than offset the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a decline by -4,252 contracts for the week to a total of 100,852 contracts.

The net speculative position had increased for eight straight weeks and by a total of +228,448 contracts in that period before this week’s small decline. The current standing remains above the +500,000 net contract level for a second straight week after having not been at those levels since October.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -529,990 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 5,492 contracts from the total net of -535,482 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $64.05 which was an advance of $0.07 from the previous close of $63.98, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators once again raised their bearish bets for 4th week

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators continued to boost their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -275,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly change of -14,086 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,564 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sinking by -9,869 contracts to a weekly total of 620,384 contracts which combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) that saw an advance by 4,217 contracts for the week to a total of 896,034 contracts.

The net speculative bearish position has now risen for four straight weeks and by a total of -111,676 net contracts over that time-period. The current net position is at the most bearish level since December 31st (-308,287 contracts) but remains a far ways off the levels of the August-to-October period which had peaks of more than -700,000 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 263,707 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 46,473 contracts from the total net of 217,234 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $122.82 which was a decrease of $-0.82 from the previous close of $123.64, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators sharply pared their bullish bets to lowest in 19 weeks

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators strongly decreased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 56,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly decline of -49,091 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,364 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -16,294 contracts to a weekly total of 183,213 contracts which combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) rising by 32,797 contracts for the week to a total of 126,940 contracts.

The net speculative position had risen for three out of the past four weeks before this week’s sharp decline. The current standing is now at the lowest level of the past nineteen weeks as the net position fell by almost half this week (-46.6 percent). The gold position has remained in a positive or bullish position for twenty-two straight weeks since a dip into bearish territory in November.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -78,430 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 54,379 contracts from the total net of -132,809 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1272.60 which was a loss of $-30.90 from the previous close of $1303.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Speculator bets bounced back this week after 2 down weeks

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators boosted their net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 15,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly lift of 19,112 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,139 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 23,134 contracts to a weekly total of 402,612 contracts which overcame a small gain by the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lift by 4,022 contracts for the week to a total of 386,639 contracts.

The net speculative position rose back into bullish territory with a total of +15,973 contracts after a drop into short territory last week. Speculative bets had been in bearish standing from January 22nd until March 26th when weekly positions jumped by over 72,000 contracts and went overall positive.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 17,316 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -10,907 contracts from the total net of 28,223 contracts reported the previous week.

With both the speculators and commercials slightly bullish, this leaves the small traders position as the ones betting against a rise in SP500-Mini contracts.

The small traders position (not charted) is at a total of -33,289 net contracts for the week through Tuesday April 16th. The small traders have had a sudden change of sentiment in the past two months going from +109,954 contracts on February 26th to their bearish position this week.

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the S&P500 Mini Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $2911.50 which was an advance of $29.0 from the previous close of $2882.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Speculators continued to raise their bearish bets, most since Oct 2017

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators continued to boost their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -169,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly decrease of -5,525 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,383 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 21,791 contracts to a weekly total of 101,191 contracts but was more than overcome by the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a rise of 27,316 contracts for the week to a total of 271,099 contracts.

The net speculator bearish position rose for a third straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The current net position is at the most bearish level since October 10th when the net position reached a total of -174,665 contracts.

The speculators and commercial traders are both currently in extreme positions, according to a statistical technique we use called the COT Index that compares current positions to the range of the past three years. The two most recent times of prolonged extreme positions have forecasted sharp rises in the VIX price (see chart of net positions below). These moves can take place a few to many months after showing up and usually happen when speculators start bailing on their extreme short positions (creating a short squeeze situation) after prices fail to continue in the downward direction.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 174,083 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 6,038 contracts from the total net of 168,045 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $12.50 which was a decline of $-2.65 from the previous close of $15.15, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

 

Silver Speculators sharply pulled back on their bullish bets, down for 3rd week

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators continued to lower their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 5,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly decrease of -10,533 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,418 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -377 contracts to a weekly total of 76,033 contracts in addition to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a strong gain by 10,156 contracts for the week to a total of 70,148 contracts.

The net speculative position fell for a third straight week and for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. This week’s decline was only the third time spec positions have dropped by over -10,000 net contracts in a week since the beginning of October.

Overall, the current standing remains in bullish territory but at the lowest level since December 4th when the net position was negative. The recent slide in speculator sentiment for silver has come fast and furious as net positions have fallen from a total of +58,313 contracts on February 26th to just +5,885 contracts this week..

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -23,672 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 14,090 contracts from the total net of -37,762 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $14.89 which was a loss of $-0.27 from the previous close of $15.16, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Speculators slightly edged their bullish net positions higher

April 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators pushed their bullish net positions higher in the Copper futures markets this week after a recent slide, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 5,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 16th. This was a weekly increase of 2,298 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,014 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 2,742 contracts to a weekly total of 84,245 contracts that overcame the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a gain by 444 contracts for the week to a total of 78,933 contracts.

The net speculative position had fallen in four out of the previous five weeks before this week’s slight rebound. The current standing remains in bullish territory for a tenth straight week but has not been above the +10,000 net contract level since March 19th.

Copper Commercial Positions:

Meanwhile, the commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -9,830 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -1,387 contracts from the total net of -8,443 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $2.930 which was a decrease of $-0.001 from the previous close of $2.931, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

USD Rallies On Better Data To Hit 2.5 Week Highs

By Orbex

USD Surges Into The Weekend

Over the European session on Friday, the US dollar enjoyed a strong rally as firmer demand, fuelled by better US data, saw exacerbated USD upside. March retail sales, delivered yesterday, came in well above expectations stoking USD buyers into the Easter weekend. USD Index is now trading 97.17 as price breaks above the 91.10 level to trade to two and a half week highs. A weekly close above the 91.10 level will bring the 97.68 level into focus early next week.

EUR Still Capped By Domestic Economic Concerns

EURUSD is trading back in the green today, following yesterday’s sharp sell-off, despite the rally in USD. Not much of a driver to pin the move on so likely some pre-weekend adjustment in light trading conditions.EUR remains skewed to the downside given the persistent concerns over the health of the eurozone,while USD is enjoying better trading on positive data surprises and re-emerging Fed rate hike expectations. EURUSD trades 1.1243 last, in the middle of the local 1.1186 – 1.1293 range.

Pound Still Rangebound

GBPUSD is fighting to stay above the 1.30 level support on the last trading day of the week. The 1.30 – 1.33 range which has underpinned price action this year is in danger of breaking to the downside following yesterday’s moves. However, for now, buyers are holding on.

Risk Assets Quieter into Weekend

Risk appetite has strengthened again into the weekend. However, overall, tone has been muted with the SPX500 ending the week slightly in the red following earlier strength, though still above the 2895.92 support. Optimism over a US/China trade deal has been a boost for risk this week though concerns around the potentially burgeoning US/EU trade war has tempered this optimism. Furthermore, stronger US data and the prospect of a return to US rate hikes has seen equity buyers pause for now.

Gold Prices Break key Support

Safe havens have benefitted from this diminished end to the week for risk appetite as, despite the stronger US dollar, both gold and JPY have been higher against the greenback today. Gold prices yesterday broke down through the key 1280.58 level which has underpinned price action this year and for now, price is yet to retest the level. USDJPY continues to move lower from the 112.16 level resistance. However, the move lacks weight and focus remains on an eventual upside break.

Oil Rally Stalls on Record US Production

Oil prices too have seen much quieter trading over recent sessions, remaining range bound over the course of the week. Yesterday, the EIA’s latest report covering industry stockpiling levels over the prior week, showed an unexpected drawdown in US crude stocks. However, with US crude production remaining at record highs and the EIA forecasting much higher levels to come in 2019, oil prices failed to deliver fresh upside. For now, crude is back under the 64.38 level with 63.14 acting as support.

Commodity Currencies End The Week Lower

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure into the end of the week as a resurgent US dollar along with subdued oil prices, have allowed for USDCAD to end the week higher. However, price is yet to close above the 1.3377 level which continues to hold as resistance for now.

AUDUSD has posted some minor gains on the final day of the week, though still down sharply from highs of the week printed above .72 on Wednesday. Better China data as well as optimism around a potential trade deal, have kept AUD supported though weakness in oil markets and a stronger USD have capped gains with AUDUSD ending the week around .7150.

By Orbex

 

Gold Breaks Key Support On USD Rally

By Orbex

Gold

The yellow metal was heavily lower this week. A strong rally in USD saw the precious metal breaking down below key technical support. 

The main driver behind the USD rally was the release of Retail sales data for March. This saw the figure rising at its quickest pace in 18 months. The release was stronger than expected, printing 1.6% vs the forecast 1%.

Alongside this, there was a sharp drop in continuing claims. The number of US citizens filing for unemployment benefits hit 50-year lows, boosting the USD.

The data has been welcomed by USD bulls following the release of the March FOMC minutes last week. These saw the Fed stating that further rate hikes could still take place later in the year provided the economy performs well.

Gold prices have come under steady pressure since the meeting minutes were released. And, positive US data releases since have accelerated the decline. A small dip in risk sentiment midweek offered some support for gold. However, this was quickly overridden by strong US data. These moves have been exacerbated this week in light holiday trading ahead of the Easter Weekend with many markets closed for Good Friday.

Technical Perspective

xauusd

Gold prices have now broken down below the 1280.58 level which has underpinned price action over the year so far. Gold is now trading within a bearish channel from the 2019 highs, with the channel low now coming in around the next structural support at 1251.71 – 1243.18.

xauusd chart

The lower timeframe shows the current falling wedge pattern that gold prices are trading in. However, any topside break will likely be capped by a retest of the broken 1280.58 support level.

Silver

Silver prices broke their correlation with gold this week, managing to remain just in the green despite the heavy losses in gold.

A stronger US Dollar capped the strength in silver this week to see price ending the week broadly neutral. Resilient equities prices have kept silver prices supported this week, which is a dynamic often seen due to the common industrial usage of silver.

Silver prices have been under pressure over the year, selling off from initial highs on the year. However, investment banks continue to forecast higher prices for silver, linked to increased demand from the auto sector. However, the prospect of further US rate hikes later in the year is likely to keep silver prices restrained.

Technical Perspective

xagusd

Silver prices are still sitting on the 14.9161 support which has held price up over the last few weeks. Price has tested the level three times recently. Although price briefly pierced below the level this week, silver quickly recovered above the support. If prices break down below here, the completion of the ACBD into the 14.3826 level will be the next technical structure to watch.

xagusd chart

The lower timeframe charts show the consolidation that price is currently in, framed by the contracting triangle pattern which has developed over the last week. For now, focus remains on an eventual break to the downside.

By Orbex

 

Disney, Commerzbank, United Health lead Weekly top Gainers/Losers

By IFCMarkets

1. Walt Disney Company – quotations of the American film company.

2. COMMERZBANK AG – stocks of the German bank.

market sentiment ratio long short positions

 Top Losers – The World Market

1. United Health Group – stocks of the American medical and pharmaceutical company.

2. Bausch Health Companies Inc – a Canadian pharmaceutical company and a medical equipment manufacturer.

market sentiment ratio long short positions

 Top Gainers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. AUDCHF, AUDNZD – the growth of this chart means the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar.

2. EURTRY, EURJPY – the growth of this chart means the strengthening of the euro against the Turkish lira and the Japanese yen.

market sentiment ratio long short positions

 Top Losers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. USDNOK, USDZAR – the decrease in these charts indicates the strengthening of the Norwegian krone and the South African rand against the US dollar.

2. USDNOK, USDCZK – the decrease in this chart indicates the strengthening of the Norwegian krone and the Czech koruna against the US dollar.

market sentiment ratio long short positions

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.