Archive for Energy

Can WTI Oil Break Resistance to Surge Another 20%?

By Admiral Markets

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, an international benchmark, has continued to range around the ~$65.00 price level for the past few weeks.

The price level is in fact a strong horizontal resistance level where the price has struggled to break through on several other occasions, including in April 2019, January 2020 and March 2021, as shown in the chart below.

Many analysts point to the fact that the context of the oil market is very different to previous years. As economies open, the demand for oil has increased, which has helped to fuel a huge rally higher, since the lows of the pandemic last year.

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, CRUDOIL, Weekly – Data range: from Aug 5, 2012, to May 11, 2021, performed on May 11, 2021, at 8:30 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

 

The technical picture also shows a more positive outlook, as the previous interactions with the ~$65.00 price level resulted in a significant move lower – a move that has not happened yet.

If the price can break through this resistance level, then there could be a near 20% rally higher to the next level of resistance around the ~$77.00 price level, which is a multi-year high.

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  4. The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Jitan Solanki (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
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By Admiral Markets

What To Look For In Tomorrow’s EIA Crude Oil Inventories Data

By Orbex

There has been a lot of media coverage on the recent cyberattack on the Colonial pipeline in the US.

So, it’s understandable there will be a lot more attention on the release of the weekly EIA petroleum data tomorrow. Not just because it has an impact on crude prices, but also because it affects a wide range of stocks and potentially even the currency itself.

The media likes to speculate about all the potential geopolitical implications and spin up the danger posed. Therefore, it’s important not to get ahead of ourselves.

This is not the first time the pipeline has been shut down. In fact, as recently as 2016, the pipeline was shut for over 10 days due to a spill that needed repairing.

Although that led to some disruptions and price increases at the pump in south-east USA, there was no major crash.

This time it’s different

Of course, in the aftermath of the pandemic, markets are a little more jittery. And there is potential for higher energy costs being a drag on an important economic area.

So, if we want to use the EIA inventories as a guide to see what’s going on in the crude market given the somewhat unique circumstances, here’s what to keep in mind.

The issue with the pipeline is that it transports refined fuels from the Gulf to the East Coast. So, the problem isn’t how much crude is available, but how many refined products there are.

Particularly gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel (Delta Airlines has their main hub in Atlanta, Georgia, which is supplied by the pipeline).

Cutting through the numbers

We want to be paying attention to the gasoline inventories section of the report.

The US had, as of last week, enough gasoline to last 28 days. However, it’s not distributed evenly across the country. The East Coast has the bulk of blending components to make gasoline.

But, the bulk of finished gasoline is on the Gulf Coast. Jet fuel has a similar situation, with about a third on the East Coast. (One of the reasons for American Airlines already announcing they will be making refueling stops for their trans-Atlantic flights.)

Assuming Colonial doesn’t have their pipeline back up by then, traders are likely to be very interested in the net change in gasoline and Jet Fuel on the East Coast (PADD1 in the report).

A significant drop in those numbers, even if there is an overall increase in inventories, could set the markets back.

What we are looking for

Consumer demand for petroleum products has been on the rise since the start of March. So, it’s not surprising that the level in inventories has generally been sliding.

In fact, last week, we saw the largest drop in inventories since the middle of the pandemic.

While a drop in inventories generally tends to give a push to oil prices, in the current situation, it could also mean that demand has increased. this is because more of the economy has reopened.

Should the results tomorrow show another drop in supply, and the pipeline issue persists, we could see further upside for oil.

By Orbex

COT Energy Futures Charts: Brent  Crude Oil, Gasoline Blendstock RBOB Futures, NY Heating Oil

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 04 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.


WTI Crude Oil Futures :

wti crude oil
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 500,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 489,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.2 34.7 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 57.7 2.3
– Net Position: 500,013 -556,470 56,457
– Gross Longs: 658,677 838,839 112,353
– Gross Shorts: 158,664 1,395,309 55,896
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.7 31.7 94.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 5.2 2.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures :

brent crude oil
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,572 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.7 47.3 3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 34.9 3.3
– Net Position: -24,600 23,543 1,057
– Gross Longs: 33,496 89,453 7,276
– Gross Shorts: 58,096 65,910 6,219
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 31.9 33.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 3.6 -12.5

 


Natural Gas Futures :

natgas futures
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.7 40.8 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 38.2 2.8
– Net Position: -55,814 31,157 24,657
– Gross Longs: 270,765 485,812 58,289
– Gross Shorts: 326,579 454,655 33,632
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.9 40.6 26.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 4.2 19.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures :

gasoline futures
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.2 44.7 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 63.4 3.4
– Net Position: 59,995 -69,798 9,803
– Gross Longs: 100,953 165,913 22,479
– Gross Shorts: 40,958 235,711 12,676
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.8 68.7 70.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -10.4 -10.5

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures :

ny harbor heating oil futures
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 3,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8 48.0 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 55.4 6.0
– Net Position: 3,711 -29,058 25,347
– Gross Longs: 62,580 190,169 49,028
– Gross Shorts: 58,869 219,227 23,681
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.6 43.2 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 -2.3 30.2

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures :

bloomberg commodities index futures cot chart
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.6 42.1 1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 87.3 12.3 0.2
– Net Position: -10,059 9,767 292
– Gross Longs: 18,557 13,807 360
– Gross Shorts: 28,616 4,040 68
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 3.4 to 1 5.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.8 62.2 63.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.1 -21.2 -2.3

 


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Energy Futures Charts: Bloomberg Index, Heating Oil, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 27 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.


WTI Crude Oil Futures:


The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 489,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 499,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 35.5 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 58.5 2.2
– Net Position: 489,711 -542,141 52,430
– Gross Longs: 650,300 835,304 104,889
– Gross Shorts: 160,589 1,377,445 52,459
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.8 36.9 89.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 8.8 -1.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:


The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -22,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 47.0 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 37.4 3.2
– Net Position: -22,572 19,651 2,921
– Gross Longs: 37,280 96,548 9,475
– Gross Shorts: 59,852 76,897 6,554
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.2 25.4 42.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 1.0 2.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:


The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -59,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 42.9 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 39.8 3.1
– Net Position: -59,616 36,620 22,996
– Gross Longs: 254,462 497,900 58,925
– Gross Shorts: 314,078 461,280 35,929
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.7 42.3 21.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 6.5 3.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:


The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.4 47.1 6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 63.3 3.5
– Net Position: 51,905 -61,214 9,309
– Gross Longs: 95,520 177,190 22,612
– Gross Shorts: 43,615 238,404 13,303
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.4 77.5 67.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.7 0.6 -22.7

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:


The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.4 48.2 11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 55.5 6.0
– Net Position: 5,828 -28,658 22,830
– Gross Longs: 60,455 188,877 46,223
– Gross Shorts: 54,627 217,535 23,393
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.2 43.6 95.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 3.2 0.7

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:


The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.5 41.6 1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 86.3 12.9 0.2
– Net Position: -9,343 9,003 340
– Gross Longs: 17,722 13,043 410
– Gross Shorts: 27,065 4,040 70
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 3.2 to 1 5.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.3 60.6 67.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.7 -25.7 -1.7

 


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Space tourism – 20 years in the making – is finally ready for launch

By Wendy Whitman Cobb, US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies 

– For most people, getting to the stars is nothing more than a dream. On April 28, 2001, Dennis Tito achieved that lifelong goal – but he wasn’t a typical astronaut. Tito, a wealthy businessman, paid US$20 million for a seat on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft to be the first tourist to visit the International Space Station. Only seven people have followed suit in the 20 years since, but that number is poised to double in the next 12 months alone.

NASA has long been hesitant to play host to space tourists, so Russia – looking for sources of money post-Cold War in the 1990s and 2000s – has been the only option available for those looking for this kind of extreme adventure. However, it seems the rise of private space companies is going to make it easier for regular people to experience space.

From my perspective as a space policy analyst, I see the beginning of an era in which more people can experience space. With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin hoping to build a future for humanity in space, space tourism is a way to demonstrate both the safety and reliability of space travel to the general public.

Three men floating in the International Space Station
Dennis Tito, on the left beside two Russian astronauts, was the first private citizen to ever go to space – and he spent more than a week on the International Space Station.
NASA/WikimediaCommons

The development of space tourism

Flights to space like Dennis Tito’s are expensive for a reason. A rocket must burn a lot of costly fuel to travel high and fast enough to enter Earth’s orbit.

Another cheaper possibility is a suborbital launch, with the rocket going high enough to reach the edge of space and coming right back down. While passengers on a suborbital trip experience weightlessness and incredible views, these launches are more accessible.

The difficulty and expense of either option has meant that, traditionally, only nation-states have been able to explore space. This began to change in the 1990s as a series of entrepreneurs entered the space arena. Three companies led by billionaire CEOs have emerged as the major players: Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and SpaceX. Though none have taken paying, private customers to space, all anticipate doing so in the very near future.

British billionaire Richard Branson has built his brand on not just business but also his love of adventure. In pursuing space tourism, Branson has brought both of those to bear. He established Virgin Galactic after buying SpaceShipOne – a company that won the Ansari X-Prize by building the first reusable spaceship. Since then, Virgin Galactic has sought to design, build and fly a larger SpaceShipTwo that can carry up to six passengers in a suborbital flight.

The going has been harder than anticipated. While Branson predicted opening the business to tourists in 2009, Virgin Galactic has encountered some significant hurdles – including the death of a pilot in a crash in 2014. After the crash, engineers found significant problems with the design of the vehicle, which required modifications.

Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respective leaders of SpaceX and Blue Origin, began their own ventures in the early 2000s.

Musk, fearing that a catastrophe of some sort could leave Earth uninhabitable, was frustrated at the lack of progress in making humanity a multiplanetary species. He founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of first developing reusable launch technology to decrease the cost of getting to space. Since then, SpaceX has found success with its Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft. SpaceX’s ultimate goal is human settlement of Mars – sending paying customers to space is an intermediate step. Musk says he hopes to show that space travel can be done easily and that tourism might provide a revenue stream to support development of the larger, Mars-focused Starship system.

Bezos, inspired by the vision of physicist Gerard O’Neill, wants to expand humanity and industry not to Mars, but to space itself. Blue Origin, established in 2004, has proceeded slowly and quietly in also developing reusable rockets. Its New Shepard rocket, first successfully flown in 2015, will eventually offer tourists a suborbital trip to the edge of space, similar to Virgin Galactic’s. For Bezos, these launches represent an effort at making space travel routine, reliable and accessible to people as a first step to enabling further space exploration.

A large silvery rocket standing upright on a launchpad.
SpaceX has already started selling tickets to the public and has future plans to use its Starship rocket, a prototype of which is seen here, to send people to Mars.
Jared Krahn/WikimediaCommons, CC BY-SA

Outlook for the future

Now, SpaceX is the only option for someone looking to go into space and orbit the Earth. It currently has two tourist launches planned. The first is scheduled for as early as September 2021, funded by billionaire businessman Jared Isaacman. The other trip, planned for 2022, is being organized by Axiom Space. These trips will be costly, at $55 million for the flight and a stay on the International Space Station. The high cost has led some to warn that space tourism – and private access to space more broadly – might reinforce inequality between rich and poor.

Blue Origin’s and Virgin Galactic’s suborbital trips are far more reasonable in cost, with both priced between $200,000 and $250,000. Blue Origin appears to be the nearest to allowing paying customers on board, saying after a recent launch that crewed missions would be happening “soon.” Virgin Galactic continues to test SpaceShipTwo, but no specific timetable has been announced for tourist flights.

Though these prices are high, it is worth considering that Dennis Tito’s $20 million ticket in 2001 could pay for 100 flights on Blue Origin soon. The experience of viewing the Earth from space, though, may prove to be priceless for a whole new generation of space explorers.

About the Author:

Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

COT Energy Futures Charts: WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude, Natural Gas, Bloomberg Index, Heating Oil

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 20 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.


WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 499,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 492,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.7 35.2 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 58.6 2.3
– Net Position: 499,983 -548,874 48,891
– Gross Longs: 650,867 826,122 102,805
– Gross Shorts: 150,884 1,374,996 53,914
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 38.5 84.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 10.3 -11.7

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 45.9 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 34.7 3.2
– Net Position: -26,711 23,565 3,146
– Gross Longs: 36,462 96,687 9,903
– Gross Shorts: 63,173 73,122 6,757
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.2 31.9 43.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.3 7.4 10.1

 


Natural Gas Futures Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -50,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 42.8 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.0 40.5 2.9
– Net Position: -50,082 27,301 22,781
– Gross Longs: 245,628 507,193 57,176
– Gross Shorts: 295,710 479,892 34,395
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.6 39.4 20.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.1 15.8 0.3

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 47.1 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 62.2 3.8
– Net Position: 48,021 -58,855 10,834
– Gross Longs: 93,054 183,094 25,546
– Gross Shorts: 45,033 241,949 14,712
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.9 79.9 76.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 0.9 -9.2

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 48.3 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.6 56.3 6.2
– Net Position: 11,157 -31,912 20,755
– Gross Longs: 65,411 193,124 45,422
– Gross Shorts: 54,254 225,036 24,667
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 40.3 83.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.3 0.3

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 48.1 1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 87.3 12.0 0.2
– Net Position: -12,426 12,124 302
– Gross Longs: 16,908 16,164 370
– Gross Shorts: 29,334 4,040 68
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 4.0 to 1 5.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.8 67.2 64.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.7 -30.6 -7.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Hydrogen is one future fuel oil execs and environmentalists could both support as rival countries search for climate solutions

By John Ballantine, Brandeis University 

Tehran, 1943: Joseph Stalin, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill – hosted by the young Shah Reza Pahlavi – agree on plans for the two-front attack on Hitler while sketching out the east-west division of Europe. Holding the meeting in Iran, with separate consultations with the shah, was no mistake. Gulf oil was a critical resource to the Allied war effort. Oil has flowed under the surface of political conflicts ever since.

The three leaders sitting in chairs on a portico
Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Britain’s Winston Churchill during the Tehran Conference.
U.S. Army/Library of Congress

Fast-forward to today, and political antagonists and energy players are again forging a messy path forward, this time focused on long-term energy transitions as disparate countries try to slow and eventually stop climate change.

The 2015 Paris Agreement was a groundbreaking diplomatic effort – 196 countries committed to prevent average temperatures from rising by more than 2 C (3.6 F), with an aim of less than 1.5 C (2.7 F). To meet that goal, scientists argue that fossil fuel use will have to reach net zero emissions by midcentury.

The genius of the Paris climate accord was getting all the major parties to agree – particularly major greenhouse gas emitters including Russia, China, India, Brazil and members of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Now, the challenge is implementing the multiplicity of solutions needed to bend the global warming curve. The Paris Agreement is not a treaty – countries set their own targets and determine their own strategies for meeting them. Each signatory has its own politics, economic structure, energy resources and climate exposure.

The commitments from countries are still falling short as President Joe Biden hosts a virtual climate summit with international leaders on Earth Day, April 22, 2021, and carries out the hard diplomatic work with Russia, China and other countries to develop implementable solutions.

As an energy economist, I am familiar with countries’ evolving responses to climate change and companies’ shifting investments and different visions of the future. One technology attracting attention from groups on all sides is hydrogen.

Different visions of energy’s future

As the world’s population and economies grow, energy demand is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next 30 years, so making the right long-term investments is crucial.

Energy companies and policymakers have widely different visions of that future. Their long-term scenarios show that most expect fossil fuel demand to remain steady for decades and possibly decline. However, many are also increasing their investments in cleaner technologies.

The International Energy Agency – which countries often look to for future scenarios, but which has a history of underestimating demand and clean energy – forecasts that renewable energy will meet about one-third of the global energy demand by 2040 in its most optimistic scenario. That would be in a world with higher carbon taxes and more wind power, solar power, electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage. Greener technologies may come close to keeping warming under 2 C, but not quite.

Exxon, on the other hand, forecasts a path dependent on a fossil fuel-based economy, with slower transitions to electric vehicles, steady demand for oil and gas, and a warmer world. Exxon is also investing in carbon capture and storage and hydrogen, but it believes oil and gas will provide half the global energy supply in 2040 and renewable energy will be less than one-fifth.

OPEC, whose members are among the most exposed to climate change and dependent upon oil and gas, also sees oil and gas dominating in the future. Nonetheless, several Gulf nations are also investing heavily in alternative technologies – including nuclear, solar, wind and hydrogen – and trying to transition away from oil.

BP proposes a more focused shift toward cleaner energy. Its “rapid scenario” forecasts flat energy demand and a more dramatic swing to renewables combined with a growing hydrogen economy. The company expects its own renewable energy to go from 2.5 gigawatts in 2019 to 50 GW by 2030, and its oil production to fall by 40%.

Others are also exploring hydrogen’s potential. Much as with utilities’ shift from coal to natural gas, hydrogen may ease the transition to cleaner energy with enough investment.

Since this fuel is getting so much industry attention, let’s look more closely at its potential.

How realistic is hydrogen as a climate solution?

Hydrogen has the potential to fuel cars, buses and airplanes, heat buildings and serve as a base energy source to balance wind and solar power in our grids. Germany sees it as a potential substitute for hard-coal coke in making steel. It also offers energy companies a future market using processes they know. It can be liquefied, stored, and transported through existing pipelines and LNG ships, with some modifications.

So far, however, hydrogen is not widely used as a clean-energy solution. First, it requires a upfront investment – including carbon capture capacity, pipeline modifications, industrial boilers for heat rather than gas, and fuel cells for transportation – plus policies that support the transition.

Second, for hydrogen to be “green,” the electricity grid has to have zero emissions.

Most of today’s hydrogen is made from natural gas and is known as “grey hydrogen.” It is produced using high-temperature steam to split hydrogen from carbon atoms into methane. Unless the separated carbon dioxide is stored or used, grey hydrogen results in the same amount of climate-warming CO2 as natural gas.

“Blue hydrogen” uses the same process but captures the carbon dioxide and stores it so only around 10% of the CO2 is released into the atmosphere. “Green hydrogen” is produced using renewable electricity and electrolysis, but it is twice as expensive as blue and dependent on the cost of electricity and available water.

Many electric utilities and energy companies, including Shell, BP and Saudi Aramco, are actively exploring a transition to a hydrogen-mixed economy, with a focus on blue hydrogen as an interim step. Europe, with its dependence on imported natural gas and higher electricity costs, is setting ambitious net-zero energy targets that will incorporate a mix of blue and green hydrogen coupled with wind, solar, nuclear and an integrated energy grid.

China, the world’s largest energy user and greenhouse gas emitter, is instead investing heavily in natural gas – which has about half the carbon dioxide emissions of coal – along with carbon capture and storage and a growing mix of solar and wind power. Russia, the second-largest natural gas producer after the U.S., is expanding its gas production and exports to Asia. Some of that gas may end up as blue hydrogen.

Ramping up blue and green hydrogen as clean-energy solutions will require substantial investments and long-term modifications to energy infrastructure. In my view, it is not the magic bullet, but it may be an important step.

Finding solutions amid messy politics

Of course, technology investments cannot assume away the messy politics of the world. People and leaders around the globe still have differing views on the urgency of the climate crisis and need for greener energy investments.

Perhaps the leaders gathered will find some common ground as seas rise and temperatures break records. What is critical for meeting the Paris goals is that countries invest now in a cleaner future.The Conversation

About the Author:

John Ballantine, Professor of International Business, Brandeis University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

The US electric power sector is halfway to zero carbon emissions

By Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Bentham Paulos, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Dev Millstein, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Joseph Rand, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

CC BY-ND

Renewable energy’s rapid growth is accelerating a national shift to a carbon-free electric power system.

So far 17 states plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico have adopted laws or executive orders setting goals for reaching 100% clean electricity by 2050 or sooner. And 46 U.S. utilities have pledged to go carbon-free. Now the Biden administration and some members of Congress are proposing to decarbonize the power sector by 2035.

While this much change in 15 years seems ambitious, our new report, “Halfway to Zero,” looks back at the past 15 and finds that power sector emissions are half of what they were projected to be.

We analyzed the “business as usual” projection in the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook published by the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. government’s official agency for data collection and analysis. It projected that annual carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector would rise from 2,400 million to 3,000 million metric tons from 2005 to 2020.

Instead, they fell to 1,450 million metric tons – 52% below projected levels. In short, the U.S. electricity sector has managed to march halfway to zero in just 15 years.

The U.S. is using much more low-carbon and carbon-free electricity today than projected in 2005.
Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, CC BY-ND

Cleaner fuels and more efficient devices

This drop happened thanks to policy, market and technology drivers.

Overall demand for electricity in 2020 was almost exactly the same as in 2005, and 24% lower than projected by federal energy forecasters. This was due partly to economic changes, such as lower economic growth from two recessions and slightly lower population growth.

The U.S. has also become more energy efficient since 2005, thanks to policies and technology improvements. Many devices that power our lives, such as LED lights, get more performance from a kilowatt-hour of electricity now than they did 15 years ago.

Wind and solar power dramatically outperformed expectations, delivering 13 times more generation in 2020 than projected. Emission-free nuclear generation largely held steady.

Finally, natural gas generation grew rapidly, driven by the shale gas revolution and low fuel prices. This pushed much of the generation of coal – the most carbon-intensive electricity source – out of the market.

These shifts have delivered many benefits. Total electric bills for consumers were 18% lower in 2020 than the Energy Information Administration had previously projected, saving households US$86 billion per year.

Reduced sulfur and nitrogen emissions, especially from less coal generation, led to a steep drop in such health impacts as respiratory disease. Premature deaths due to power-sector air pollution fell from 38,000 to 3,100 per year. And declining employment in the coal industry was more than offset by job growth in other areas, notably solar power.

The other 50%

Many assessments of energy transitions assert that it takes decades for societies to shift fully from one energy source to another. But our study shows that dramatic changes in emissions can happen much more quickly.

This doesn’t guarantee that getting to zero will be easy, though.

Wind, solar and battery technologies will be central to further decarbonization. Accelerating their deployment will require a laser focus on maintaining reliability, with new transmission lines and changes to power-system planning and operations. It will also call for careful attention to ecological impacts and heightened sensitivity to effects on workers and communities.

Fortunately, much of the generation and storage needed to hit a zero-carbon target is already in development. Developers have requested access to the transmission grid for 660 gigawatts of new wind and solar generating capacity and 200 gigawatts of storage. That represents more than half of what could be required. Not all proposed projects will be built, but the scale indicates tremendous commercial interest.

Using this much wind and solar raises the question of how to meet the last portion of demand on cloudy or windless days. Many technologies could fill this gap, such as longer-duration storage, hydrogen or synthetic fuels, fossil or biomass generation with carbon capture, advanced nuclear power, and geothermal energy. All require more research.

Our study offers two central lessons as the nation moves forward. First, policy and technology are both key to cutting emissions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited. It will be crucial to adapt as government agencies and power companies gain policy experience, and technologies advance in unexpected ways.

About the Authors:

Ryan Wiser, Senior Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Bentham Paulos, Affiliate, Electricity Markets & Policy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Dev Millstein, Reesearch Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Joseph Rand, Senior Scientific Engineering Associate, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Clean Energy Fuels Partners with Amazon for Renewable Natural Gas

Source: Streetwise Reports   04/19/2021

Clean Energy Fuels shares traded 11% higher after the company reported that it has entered into fuel supply and investment agreement with Amazon for low and negative carbon renewable natural gas.

Natural gas retailer and supplier of compressed, liquefied and renewable natural gas for light, medium and heavy-duty vehicles Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE:NASDAQ) today announced that “it has signed an agreement with Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ) to provide low and negative carbon renewable natural gas (RNG).”

The firm indicated in the release that it will provide the RNG fuel to Amazon in 15 different states in the U.S. at 27 of its existing Clean Energy fueling stations. In addition, the company noted that it will expand services through another 19 newly constructed, non-exclusive new or upgraded Clean Energy-owned stations by the end of December 2021.

In addition, the company issued warrants to Amazon giving it the option to purchase up to 53.14 million shares of Clean Fuels common stock. The specific details were outlined in Clean Energy’s Form 8K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As stated in the Form 8K filing, the first tranche of 13.28 million warrant shares, approximately 25% of the total warrants, vested in conjunction with the fuel supply agreement between the two companies. The remaining warrants will be predicated upon future fuel purchases reaching up to $500 million. The warrants come with an exercise price of $13.49 and are valid until April 15, 2031.

Clean Energy Fuels’ CEO and President Andrew J. Littlefair commented, “If the world is really going to tackle the issue of climate change, all of us need to find solutions that work both environmentally and economically, and that is exactly what this agreement supports…Clean Energy was the first to commercially make RNG available as a vehicle fuel in 2013 and now fuels tens of thousands of vehicles across the country every day.”

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. is based in Newport Beach, Calif., and is a provider of clean fuel for the commercial transportation market. The company’s renewable natural gas is derived from captured biogenic methane that is produced from decomposing organic waste that is then used to create RNG products for powering commercial vehicle fleets, airport shuttles, city buses, and waste and heavy-duty trucks. The firm advised that depending upon the source of the RNG, it can help reduce greenhouse gasses by 60% to 400% compared to diesel and other fuels. The firm has a network of around 565 fueling stations throughout the U.S. and Canada and can deliver Redeem through both compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company additionally owns natural gas liquefication facilities in Texas and California and transports bulk CNG and LNG to non-transportation customers throughout the U.S.

Clean Energy Fuels started the day with a market cap of around $2.2 billion with approximately 199.2 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 5.25%. CLNE shares opened 26% higher today at $14.09 (+$2.95, +26.48%) over Friday’s $11.14 closing price. The stock has traded today between $11.82 and $14.10 per share and is currently trading at $12.39 (+$1.25, +11.22%).

Disclosure:
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Crude Oil in the Consolidating Phase

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

On Monday, April 19th, Brent is trading without any particular direction not far from $66.50. The oil market is consolidating after a lot of news that avalanched it earlier.

The latest forecast from JP Morgan suggests an average oil price at $70 by May, which is several months earlier than it was thought before. It’s a bit against the current market conditions: the anti-coronavirus vaccination campaign around the world is not as fast as it was expected to be, but Europe may speed up the economic recovery process next to the USA. At the same time, signals from China demonstrate a slowdown in the economy after a pretty effective first quarter.

The oil supply is rising: Iran is boosting both the output and export. Alongside this, the oil output in the Permian Basin is also rising and get back to its pre-crisis levels by October.

All of this somehow is limiting prospects of the oil price growth both right now and in the mid-term.

In the H4 chart, after finishing another ascending wave at 66.50, Brent is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 67.60 or even reach the short-term target at 68.75; if to the downside – start a new correction towards 65.00 and then resume moving within the uptrend to reach 90.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving outside the histogram area to grow towards 0. After that, the growth is expected to continue.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming another consolidation range, this time around 64.30, and breaking it to the upside, Brent has reached 66.50; right now, it is forming one more consolidation range around the latter level. Possibly, the asset may expand the range both upwards and downwards, first to 67.00 and then to 65.50, and then resume growing with the target at 67.50. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line moving upwards and has already broken 50, which implies further growth towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.