Archive for Commodities & Metals

Corn Futures Speculators raised their bearish bets for 10th straight week

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Corn Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large commodities speculators continued to increase their bearish net positions in the Corn Futures futures markets again last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Corn Futures futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -41,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 24th. This was a weekly change of -3,181 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,740 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -13,417 contracts (to a weekly total of 359,801 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by a lesser amount of -10,236 contracts for the week (to a total of 401,722 contracts).

Corn speculators once again raised their bearish bets for the tenth straight week and now by a total of -360,142 contracts over that time-frame. Speculative positions had gained strongly through most of the summer and reached a cycle high of +318,221 contracts on July 16th before a sharp shift in sentiment took place. Since then, positions have reversed, falling for ten consecutive weeks and dropping to the most bearish level in nineteen weeks at over -40,000 net contracts.

Corn Futures Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -51,962 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 8,691 contracts from the total net of -60,653 contracts reported the previous week.

C:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Corn CBOT Futures closed at approximately $398.75 which was a decrease of $-0.25 from the previous close of $399.00, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COPPER Analysis: Improving Chinese economy prospect bullish for copper price

By IFCMarkets

Improving Chinese economy prospect bullish for copper price

China’s manufacturing sector resumed growth in August. Will the copper price advance continue?

Caixin and Markit reported China’s factory activity rebounded to a five-month high in August. Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.4 in August compared with 49.9 in July. Manufacturing activity resumed expanding: readings above 50.0 indicate sector expansion, and contraction below. Caixin had mentioned the uncertainty of US-China trade dispute as a downside risk. Last Thursday China’s commerce ministry stated Beijing and Washington had set a tentative date for “early October” meeting for resuming trade negotiations. Improving prospect of US-China trade dispute resolution raises Chinese economy’s growth rate estimate. And China’s central bank last Friday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the third time this year, releasing 900 billion yuan ($126.35 billion) in liquidity to stimulate the economy. Improving growth prospect and stimulus measures for China, world’s biggest consumer of copper, is bullish for copper.

COPPER testing MA(50) 09/10/2019 Technical Analysis IFC Markets chart

On the daily timeframe COPPER: D1 is retracing higher after hitting 29-month low in the beginning of September. It is testing the 50-day moving average MA(50), which is falling.

  • The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal.
  • The Donchian channel indicates no trend yet: it is flat.
  • The MACD indicator is below the signal line with the gap narrowing. This is a bullish signal.
  • The RSI oscillator has not reached the overbought zone and has formed a bullish divergence.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 2.6467. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower fractal at 2.4804. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (2.4804) without reaching the order (2.6467) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Order Buy
Buy Stop Above 2.6467
Stop loss Below 2.4804

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Head-shoulder chart formation in Gold – focus on key-support at 1,275/277

By Admiral Markets

Economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events April 8, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

After the Non-Farm Payrolls last Friday printed at 196,000, with the average hourly earnings coming in at 0.1% against 0.3% expected (MoM), the technical side in Gold becomes very interesting.

As expressed in the chart below, on a daily time-frame a head-shoulder formation can be spotted with a key-support region coming in around 1,275/277 USD. A break lower finds a projected price target around 1,235/240 USD.

The formation would be negated with a push back above 1,325 USD, a scenario which became a bit less likely after last week’s NFP print, pushing back expectations slightly for a rate cut from the Fed in 2019.

On the other hand: with time running out in terms of a Brexit conflict, a no-deal scenario became very likely over the last week.

If such a no-deal result really comes to pass, resulting volatility and uncertainty would definitely favour Gold in the short-term with a sharp rise back above 1,300 USD, where we would quickly see further gains up to 1,320/330 USD.

Gold index daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between January 14, 2018, to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.

Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: Head-shoulder chart formation in Gold – focus on key-support at 1,275/277


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

Graphite Firm Now Producing Concentrate Samples at Own Lab

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   01/17/2019

This new capability will help the company develop business.

SRG Graphite Inc. (SRG:TSX.V) produced its first 95% graphite samples at its metallurgical laboratory located at its Lola project in Guinea, West Africa, it announced in a news release.

Following commissioning of the facility and training of the lab technicians by Quebec-based SOUTEX, the on-site team now can produce graphite concentrate samples of various flake sizes and grades. This capability allows SRG Graphite to quickly generate and send samples to prospective clients straight from the lab.

“We are excited to send samples to prospective clients directly from our lab. This step for the company is in line with our values: to invest in our local team, infrastructure and training, as they are the key to our success,” commented Raphaël Beaudoin, P.Eng., VP Operations, Metallurgy and Process Design.

SRG noted that it used local vendors and construction companies entirely for the building and facilities, excluding the technical equipment.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: SRG Graphite. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of SRG Graphite, a company mentioned in this article.

( Companies Mentioned: SRG:TSX.V,
)

Energy Company Produces Vanadium Concentrate in Utah

The Energy Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   01/07/2019

This miner discussed 2019 plans for its vanadium and uranium projects.

This month, Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR:TSX; UUUU:NYSE.American) produced its first vanadium concentrate, or black flake, from the tailings pond solution at its White Mesa mill, it announced in a news release. “We are extremely pleased with the quality and purity of our initial batches of finished vanadium product,” which should meet or exceed the requirements of potential buyers, President and CEO Mark Chalmers said in the release.

After ramping up vanadium production during Q1/19, the company aims to reach full production of 200,000–225,000 pounds of vanadium by quarter’s end, provided the efforts remain economically viable.

In other news, Energy Fuels plans this year to institute $4.2 million worth of programs at its various projects in preparation for boosting uranium production once the market for the element improves.

These initiatives include continuing test mining at La Sal and potentially starting the same at the Pandora mine there, too, with the goal of determining the best mining method for selectively targeting areas of high-grade vanadium. The company will provide an update on the test mining in Q1/19 and a decision on whether or not it will expand the program.

At its Nichols Ranch in situ recovery plant, the miner will “install new ion exchange capacity” and upgrade other equipment to increase flow and decrease costs, according to the release.

At Alta Mesa, Energy Fuels plans a 200-hole surface drilling program to update and grow the uranium resources there and possibly increase the mine life.

At its Canyon mine, the company will evaluate the copper metallurgy and conduct other development work.

Lastly, Energy Fuels guided to producing 50,000–125,000 pounds of uranium in 2019, 50,000–75,000 pounds of it from Nichols Ranch. As for vanadium, management expects to sustain steady state production of 200,000–225,000 pounds per month, once reached, through the first half of 2020.

The energy firm does not have any sales commitments for uranium in 2019 but expects to sell its vanadium within one to three months of production.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Energy Fuels. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

( Companies Mentioned: EFR:TSX; UUUU:NYSE.American,
)

Oil & Gas Company Spuds Orogrande Basin Well to Test Geologic Theory

The Energy Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   01/07/2019

The energy firm explained how drilling will proceed.

Torchlight Energy Resources Inc. (TRCH:NASDAQ) started drilling the University Maverick A24 #1 well in the Orogrande Basin, it announced in a news release. The driller is Wolfbone Properties, and the operator is Maverick Operating.

The purpose of drilling the A24 #1 well is to vertically test Torchlight geologist Rich Masterson’s theory that a structural high, or four-way, trap could exist, which if present, would translate to excellent pay opportunities in the deeper, conventional zones.

If the theory bears out, once unconformity is reached at the height of the Penn silt, drilling will continue through it, “down into potential conventional zones deeper than the Penn Formation,” the release noted. In that case, the well could be drilled to an estimated depth of as much as 7,500 feet.

If the theory does not hold up, in other words A24 #1 proves to not be structurally high, drilling will be completed in the Penn section, “providing for completion potential in that formation and shallower Wolfcamp zones,” according to the release.

While A24 #1 is being drilled, Torchlight will also begin testing the previously drilled A39 #1 and A11 #2 wells, both of which showed “excellent oil zones,” the release noted.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Torchlight Energy Resources. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Torchlight Energy Resources. Please click here for more information.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Torchlight Energy Resources, a company mentioned in this article.

( Companies Mentioned: TRCH:NASDAQ,
)

Trophic Cascade

By The Gold Report

Source: Michael J. Ballanger for Streetwise Reports   01/07/2019

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the broad markets, Fed action and precious metals.

Unarguably, the finest piece of work that I have ever seen on the state of the global financial world—ever—is the one recently created and presented by Grant Williams of RealVisionTV entitled “Cry Wolf.” I was watching it last evening for the fifth time with my better half (who was watching it for the first time) and despite the fact that as bright and insightful as she is, I could and would not expect her to grasp concepts such as “Exter’s Inverse Pyramid” or the definition of a “trophic cascade” but when I glanced over to gauge her reaction to what might have been fairly glutinous material, to my delight she was glued to the screen as the history of her favorite form of metal unfolded in Grant’s purely brilliant display of 5,000 years of human folly, greed, and insanity.

The coup de grâce was the ending of the piece where Grant draws a phenomenal analogy between the role of the Grey Wolf in controlling the uncontested overpopulation by the deer and elk of Yellowstone National Park and the role of gold in controlling the uncontested overpopulation by the “money-changers” in global economics. The term “apex predator” is wonderfully applied to gold and the Grey Wolf in that there is no natural predator to keep wolves in check just there are no counterparties to the role and control of gold.

See the source image

When you look at Exter’s Inverse Pyramid, you are looking at a ranking of all assets from the top to the bottom of the risk slope so it is of interest that in the upper half of risk we find none other than real estate, where the city of Vancouver recently reported a 40% drop in residential home sales for December on the heels of a 42.5% drop in November. Prices are down 8–10% in Vancouver and Toronto as the marginal (foreign) has finally been legislated away as depositories for expatriated Chinese capital. Even New York City has seen a 14% decline in sales with an accompanying 4% drop in prices so the world of asset inflation in the saddle of unbridled money-printing and credit creation has come to a resounding and screeching halt—or has it? After Friday’s Federal Reserve Lovefest with Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell all sending out dovish signals, perhaps the December rout has altered policy.

Back to the title of this missive, “Cry Wolf” offers the proposition that a return to the gold standard would create a “trophic cascade” of sorts in the financial world. That is to say, an ecological event in which there exists an “apex predator” at the top of the food chain whose re-introduction (as in the case of the Grey Wolf to Yellowstone) to an ecological system triggers a massive metamorphosis of that system. Just as Grant’s video depicts changes occurring after the return of the wolves, which include even the rivers, the re-introduction of the gold standard would initiate a change in the financial system whereby purveyors of credit and paper promises would be penalized, and savers and disciples of sound money and fiscal sanity rewarded.

As a true adherent to the rights of all citizens to have their hard-earned savings protected from the ravages of currency debasement, I would welcome any initiative that would wrest the printing presses away from the bankers and the politicians. To wit, this is exactly the message in Grant William’s brilliant presentation and it behooves us all to watch over and over and over again until it sinks deep within our cranial vaults and forever alters our ingrained and flawed attitudes about investing, labor and money.

Stock prices closed out the week with a solid gain, which come as no surprise to those who are privy to my Twitter feeds. The time to be short expired once the RSI for the S&P dipped under 25 and the time to go long (for a “trade”) was on Christmas Eve when it plunged in a panic liquidation under 20. Notwithstanding that I elected to pass on the long side despite the obvious massive oversold condition that arrived late during the worst December in a decade (at one point the worst December since 1931), I went into Christmas with all (non-precious metals) shorts covered and all puts sold. Only the Santa Claus rally period, defined as the last five days of December and the first two of January, was able to save the month quarter and year for many stock bulls as it eked out a 1.3% gain for the period. Statistically, it infers that there is a distinct possibility that the Christmas Eve lows at 2,351 for the S&P were THE lows but we still need to see what happens after the Monday/Tuesday closes which, if positive, would further enhance the likelihood of a prolonged recovery rally. Without the benefit of a crystal ball, my gut tells me that we are going into a sideways-trending period for stocks as opposed to the “New Highs” halcyon of the past ten years or “New Lows” below the December 24 nadir.

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p8890021383c&a=638532934&r=1546632567671

From the trader’s perspective, if the Q4/2018 bloodbath did just one thing of importance and one thing alone, it was to alleviate the terror one has been experiencing when even contemplating short selling since the face-ripping fandango of the past few years. “Don’t fight the tape and don’t fight the Fed!” screamed the late legendary market maven Marty Zweig and no truer words were ever spoken when you look back to 2009 and especially 2018. The last year was a year in which the Fed was openly hostile to stocks by way of quantitative tightening leading to balance sheet reduction and high short-term lending rates, and it finally registered in early October with the rest being history. In retrospect, it is hilarious how the CNBC cheerleaders totally ignored the words of Master Zweig and instead used the phrase “strong economy” no fewer than 652,947 times in the final quarter of the year as a rationale for buying stocks. Forgotten totally was “the horrid economy” of March 2009 when the Fed embarked on its credit-fueled bailout and intervention campaign when that too was an excuse for “buying the dips,” proving once again that CNBC is best watched with the “MUTE” button on and only for live data feeds while away from one’s workspace. (I overlay a transparent dart board on my TV for maximum adolescent amusement.)

As a trader, I was terrified in early November when I looked at the Goldman Sachs (GS:US) chart in the days after the Indonesian scandal broke because I did NOT see opportunity; I only saw another potential loss from trying to short a big name U.S. bank. What gave me courage was the knowledge that since the Fed was no longer in “protector mode” and social media starting to viralize the GS story, it appeared as though “conditions” had changed, and when conditions change, I change. I bought the GS December $200 put at $3.40 and sold them at $25, which was actually about $15 too early as GS hit $160 by expiry. Nonetheless, I was a nervous wreck throughout.

The point is that with the severe Q4/2018 breakdown in the long-term charts of the global stock markets including the S&P 500, I am no longer engulfed in abject terror at the thought of shorting one of the FANGS or the index ETFs because despite a blow-out unemployment number last Friday and stock-soothing words from Mr. Powell, this current rally is simply a bear market rally and again as stated last week, this Papa bear is simply sleeping off the engorgement binge upon which he embarked last October resulting in him passing out from excessive gluttony on the Eve of the Noel at S&P 2,351. This bear is simply “napping”; he is NOT back into “hibernation.”

That said, I am now of the opinion that the elitists are going to attempt to restore market confidence due to their (rightly founded) fear that recent global market turmoil will see the embodiment of the negative asymmetrical wealth effect of declining assets prices. Stocks, housing and commodities are now trending downward and while stocks alone are enough to sour consumer spending patterns, housing has an infinitely greater impact, as we saw in 2006 when the sub-prime bubble triggered the beginning of that catastrophic foreclosure/liquidation cycle. As the Q4 earnings reports start to arrive, we may see accelerated interventions and abbreviated declines as they try to “soft-land” the stock markets. The first five days of January can give you an inkling as to the month of January just as the Santa Claus rally might be giving us a similar bullish hint.

The time to be short has passed us by and while it might be too early to go long the S&P, I await an RSI north of 70 (currently 46.77) for the S&P 500 before I look to establish any shorts and I would avoid any new longs until I see a successful retest of the December lows OR an RSI back under 25. As for the VIX, it has already crashed from 36 to 21 and if there is ANY ONE indicator that smells of intervention, it is the VIX.

Last point on stocks, what spooked me out of all shorts in the days before Christmas was none other than Stevie Mnuchin (U.S. Treasury Secretary) who came out and actually ANNOUNCED that he had called a meeting of the Working Group on Capital Markets and while it “appeared” to have blown up on Christmas Eve, I have ZERO doubt that the Plunge Protection Team were mobilized in force from Boxing Day onward. The action in the gold and silver markets and the massive move in S&P futures immediately following Friday’s NFP report were the “tell” along with my curiosity as to why there is no government-generated COT report while the U.S. government is “closed,” but there was a magical arrival of the NFP report from yet another government agency that was somehow supposed to be “closed.” I do NOT want to be short with shenanigans like this showing up on our doorstep once again. Ergo, I am not.

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SLV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p4670626018c&a=638363149&r=1546787007534

As to the precious metals and in keeping with my current mistrust of the set-ups from last week, I looked to the RSI on silver as a signal to exit my call option positions, which treated me nicely over the time frame. I did not sell any physical silver nor did I cash the ticket on CDE; all I did was take a little risk off the table last Thursday prior to the NFP Report. While we got a downtick in gold and silver immediately thereafter, they recovered quickly telling me that there is a pretty strong undercurrent of demand for gold and silver here and that pullbacks may be short-lived. I called for a strong Q4 back in August when I wrote “Back up the Truck” and while past luck is no guarantee of future bragging rights, I nevertheless am proud to take the bow just as I did in late 2015 when I called the end of the precious metals bear markets at gold $1,045.

We are undoubtedly entering a period in our lives when “preservation of capital” (AND PROPERTY) is going to replace “return on investment” as the primary objective for a new generation of investors too young to recall a bear market that was ever allowed to go to full maturity without a Fed bailout. Only after they come to the sudden realization that crying into their social media camera phone will not turn back the clock on a margin call will they accept the fact that stocks can and do indeed go down over long periods of time and historically never, EVER get rescued by anyone other than the free market capitalist buying at the lows at the end of the bear market.

Of course, this is where the new generation will flock into the metals because they now recognize that the digital safe haven that they THOUGHT would replace gold and silver as their private, innovative, untouchable store of value—cryptocurrencies—got absolutely annihilated in 2018. They are slowly realizing that as possession is nine-tenths of the law, allowing a massive supercomputer to control your net worth and savings is nothing short of madness. Yet, despite all of this, social media is still rife with all manner of crypto promotions with bagholding converts all citing various “support levels” from which the next big move to Bitcoin $100,000 will occur. Just as latecomers to the massive 2001–2011 precious metals moonrocket were mimicking “$5,000 gold!” for months and months and months after they paid $1,800 then $1,700 then $1,500 after the 2011 peak and were soundly thrashed, so, too, will the crypto-junkies be thrashed and forced kicking and screaming into precious metals ownership. Right behind them will be the weed-o-philes and behind them the FANG-buying stockroaches complete with their “DOW 30,000!” baseball caps and CNBC tee-shirts.

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p8432471673c&a=638794512&r=1546798259230

Gold prices have had a blistering move since my entry point in late August, albeit we had a few scares along the way before lift-off finally came through. Nevertheless, a $110 move in gold is not to be sneezed at with the GLD April $13 calls recommended in November at $1.00 and then followed up a week later with a strong, table-pounding, screaming “BUY MORE!” when GLD briefly sank back under $114.00. The April calls closed out the week at $1.90 and I have not, as yet, sold them but will be watching eagerly Sunday evening as the Globex opens at 6:00 p.m. EST to see if the PPT shenanigans from Friday carry over into the new week.

To be honest, both my partner and my loyal dog, Fido, both bolted on Friday, off to destinations unknown either the wife to the sister’s house and Fido to the cavern below the tool shed (or was it the dog to the sister’s and the better half to the…oh never mind) but the karma in my den which has been in total harmonious Nirvana for the month of December has been shattered like an icicle falling from the eaves. I might be a tad paranoid but I am of the belief that the same forces that conspired to screw us in 2013 and which stepped up every time the S&P had more than a 5% dip since 2009 are back “in the room” and whether or not that is why I find myself alone is not important. What IS important is that we hang onto the greater portion of gains in gold, silver and our beloved miners bestowed upon us in Q4/2018. Gold gained 7.53%, silver has gained 15.54%, and the HUI (gold miners) has gained 13.83% in Q4, so I’ll be damned if I am going to give back any of those gains. I will know early in the week and if I see something between now and the opening, I will send out an email flash or a tweet.

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COPPER&p=D&st=2018-01-01&i=t8655326671c&a=638798222&r=1546799880202

Dr. Copper: Is the good doctor telling us to head for the exits?

As we head into the first real trading week after the low-volume holidays, it will be critical to observe the behaviors of all of the metals, including Dr. Copper, to try to discern the direction of the portfolio. Copper and silver once were strongly correlated and now have diverged, freeing the algobots from pounding silver every time the base metals have a hiccup. The chart shown here is a strongly bearish one, albeit somewhat oversold based upon the MACD/Histograms yet not so for the RSI. The trend is definitely down and until proven otherwise, copper’s performance appears to be confirming that which we all suspect to be true—that before too long, the Fed, the PBOC, the ECB and the BOJ will all be in simultaneous and cleverly coordinated EASING and when that happens, the USD is going to get smoked.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has crashed from just under 3.25% in October to 2.67% today which, in the bond world, is a cataclysmic, several-sigma event. As I have written of before, the bond market is infinitely wiser than the stock market in forecasting events and while the Fed can intervene in gold pricing and at the short end of the curve, it has a very tough time with the 10-year. Ergo, my portfolio will be tilted in favor of a watershed-type of event that sees a cessation in rate hikes and a stay in central bank balance sheet reductions. The eardrum-splitting sirens you will then hear are the emergency alert warnings from all FOREX desks across the globe calling all to EXIT the U.S. dollar for the final time, as its reign as the globe’s reserve currency comes to a resounding end. With that, gold and silver prices will soar and our gold miners and explorers will flourish.

However, before that happens, remember this: in the animal kingdom, there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded beast. Just as the vast majority of the ecosystem fears man above all as the planet’s premier “apex predator” (no natural enemies left), the only creatures that do NOT fear man are insects, sharks, wolves, Komodo dragons and one other—the “wounded” creature of all shapes and sizes. Even a cornered, injured raccoon can be a fearsome and lethal threat if trapped and desperate.

In this manner, I see the world’s central bankers in exactly the same venue—trapped and wounded and in desperate need of a solution to a “problem,” which they themselves along with their politician cooperatives actually created. That is why I am going to hold on to my physical precious metals as core positions and not available for trading but as call options; they will be the first to go with the miners a close second in the event that we get a gold/silver-hostile series of events next week. If we do, it means that the “invisible hand” has not stopped with the Friday intervention and that they will continue just as they did in 2013 and crush bearish sentiment for stocks and bullish sentiment for gold and in any way they choose.

I close it off with a chart of how throughout history stocks responded to drops of at least 20% in the period immediately thereafter. The one difference is that until 2009, there was no such thing as central bank or government intervention in markets while here in 2019, it is rampant. Keep that in the forefront of your trading and investing psyches and be very, very careful as you do. More to come later in the week. (@MiningJunkie )

Originally trained during the inflationary 1970s, Michael Ballanger is a graduate of Saint Louis University where he earned a Bachelor of Science in finance and a Bachelor of Art in marketing before completing post-graduate work at the Wharton School of Finance. With more than 30 years of experience as a junior mining and exploration specialist, as well as a solid background in corporate finance, Ballanger’s adherence to the concept of “Hard Assets” allows him to focus the practice on selecting opportunities in the global resource sector with emphasis on the precious metals exploration and development sector. Ballanger takes great pleasure in visiting mineral properties around the globe in the never-ending hunt for early-stage opportunities.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Michael Ballanger and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Michael Ballanger is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation. Michael Ballanger was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Charts provided by the author.

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Gold Producer Reports New Quarterly Production Record at Mexican Mine

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   01/07/2019

The company provided a breakdown of the year’s production by mine.

Leagold Mining Corp. (LMC:TSX.V; LMCNF:OTCQX) announced in a news release it achieved revised 2018 production guidance of 295,000–305,000 ounces by producing at total of 302,550 ounces from its quartet of mines. “2018 was a transformative year for Leagold, as we evolved from a single mine operator into a diversified group with four mines in two countries,” CEO Neil Woodyer said in the release.

“In Mexico, the Los Filos mine demonstrated significant production growth with 25,404 oz produced in December as gold recovery rates are normalizing and resulting in a new record quarterly production of 58,201 oz since our acquisition of the mine in April 2017,” Woodyer added.

Gold production in 2018 from each mine, from most to least, was: Los Filos, 195,362 ounces; Fazenda, 46,668 ounces; Pilar, 31,122 ounces; and RDM, 29,398 ounces.

Management forecasts the full year 2018 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) will be around $979 per ounce, the level at which it was at the end of Q3/18.

The gold miner will report full 2018 financial and operating results in mid-March. Next week, it will release results of studies concerning a Los Filos mine expansion and subsequently, 2019 gold production and AISC guidance. “Leagold is well positioned to deliver increased production and cash flow in 2019,” Woodyer stated.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Leagold. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

( Companies Mentioned: LMC:TSX.V; LMCNF:OTCQX,
)

Coverage Initiated on ‘Low-Cost, High-Grade, Growing Gold Producer’

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   01/04/2019

A ROTH Capital Partners report outlined the bullish thesis for this Canada-based mining company.

In a Jan. 3 research note, analyst Jake Sekelsky reported that ROTH Capital Partners initiated coverage on Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (KL:TSX; KL:NYSE) with a Buy rating and a US$31 per share target price. The stock is currently trading at around US$25.76 per share.

“We view Kirkland Lake as a low cost, high grade, growing gold producer with a strong organic growth profile,” Sekelsky commented. “The company is well positioned to deliver strong cash flow while executing on its stated objective to grow production to approximately 1 million ounces (1 Moz) by 2021.”

Sekelsky highlighted that “the surface has just been scratched at Fosterville” and high-grade production at that mine should drive growth in 2019 and beyond. Kirkland Lake has expanded the resource there to 1.7 million ounces 23.1 grams per ton (23.1 g/t) grade gold since December 2016. Due to the company’s continued successful exploration at Fosterville, ROTH expects the grade in Q4/18 will have averaged about 30 g/t gold.

The analyst also pointed out that Macassa, Kirkland Lake’s other cornerstone asset, could hugely benefit from the planned sinking of the #4 shaft, which can hoist about 4,000 tons per day (4 Ktpd), including waste. The shaft should significantly boost throughput at the mine to nearly 2 Ktpd by 2023 and, ultimately, allow for the nearly doubling of production from the current 220–225 Moz per year rate.

Further, Sekelsky indicated Kirkland Lake’s other assets should contribute to growth as well.

Also noteworthy, he wrote, is that the company is more concerned with quality than quantity. “Although we expect production to increase from our 2018 production estimate of 669,610 ounces to nearly 1.2 Moz in 2023, we do not expect the approximate 75% increase in production to come at the expense of high operating margins,” Sekelsky stated.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from ROTH Capital Partners, Kirkland Lake, Company Note, January 3, 2019

Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.

( Companies Mentioned: KL:TSX; KL:NYSE,
)

Analyst: Outlook Positive for ‘Water-Driven Turnaround Story’

The Energy Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   01/04/2019

This master limited partnership’s presentation to analysts provided Raymond James with multiple reasons for long-term investment.

In a Dec. 20, 2018, research note, Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins reported that following NGL Energy Partners LP’s (NGL:NYSE) Analyst Day, which focused primarily on the company’s water solutions segment, “we came away from our trip with increased conviction in the long-term story” and “we continue to believe ample long-term value [in NGL] exists.”

In general, Jenkins noted, water solutions will keep driving cash flow for the limited partnership (LP) and “is propelling its ongoing efforts to right-size its capital structure and generate discounted cash flow per unit growth (along with enhancements to its other businesses, with notable success in the crude oil segment).”

Further, to supplement these operational improvements, management garnered about $1.8 billion in cash from sales of assets during the past year or so. “With both coverage and leverage improving due to these trends, and an attractive current yield, we continue to like the total return value proposition of NGL,” he added.

Jenkins highlighted these points from his time spent with the LP’s management:

1. The geographic area with the most significant growth opportunity for NGL is the Permian Basin, as it produces more water than any other basin. Its water:oil ratio is 3:1 or 4:1 versus that of other basins, at about 1:1.

2. NGL has a first mover advantage. For example, with its recently acquired ranch properties, it intends to provide integrated services to its potential exploration and production customers.

3. The economics of disposal wells seem attractive, with an average returned EBITDA of 60–65%.

Jenkins left Analyst Day “incrementally more positive on the water services platform NGL has built” and believes the business should be viewed as any traditional mainstream business is.

He commented briefly on NGL’s other segments as well. With respect to crude oil logistics, he noted volumes on the Grand Mesa pipeline continue to be robust and are likely ahead of forecasts. “If volumes remain resilient, even in the face of the recent decline in oil prices, there could be upside potential to financials related to Grand Mesa.”

Concerning the liquid logistics segment, competition in the space seems to be easing, according to management. “While commodity volatility remains, we still believe FY19 guidance is achievable and that upside potential actually exists for this business in the near-to-intermediate term,” Jenkins wrote.

As for refined products, dropping commodity prices are reducing the working capital requirements for the segment, in which the MLP continues with operational improvements.

Finally, in the capital allocation division, “buybacks are a large part of the conversation,” indicated Jenkins, adding that, looking forward, NGL should see “incremental optionality for deploying capital.”

Jenkins concluded that “as NGL’s integrated water solutions platform exhibits consistent execution and growth, coupled with the addition of unit buybacks, we believe the limited partnership’s equity can bounce off its depressed multiples.” NGL stock, on which Raymond James has an Outperform rating, is currently trading at around $10.54 per share.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from Raymond James, NGL Energy Partners LP, December 20, 2018

ANALYST INFORMATION

Analyst Holdings and Compensation: Equity analysts and their staffs at Raymond James are compensated based on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the bonus determination including quality and performance of research product, the analyst’s success in rating stocks versus an industry index, and support effectiveness to trading and the retail and institutional sales forces. Other factors may include but are not limited to: overall ratings from internal (other than investment banking) or external parties and the general productivity and revenue generated in covered stocks.

The analysts Justin Jenkins and J.R. Weston, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report, attest to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers and that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report. In addition, said analyst(s) has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.

RAYMOND JAMES RELATIONSHIP DISCLOSURES
Certain affiliates of the RJ Group expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months.

Limited Partnerships may generate unrelated business taxable income (UBTI), which can create a tax liability that must be paid from a retirement account. To the extent that Raymond James is your IRA custodian, and there is potential tax liability for UBTI generated by the fund, Raymond James will take the necessary steps to pay the tax from the retirement account by working with a third party to compute the tax liability and prepare the IRS form 990-T for submission to the IRS.

Raymond James & Associates, Inc. makes a market in the shares of NGL Energy Partners LP.

Raymond James & Associates received non-securities related compensation from NGL Energy Partners LP within the past 12 months.

Raymond James & Associates has received compensation for investment banking services provided to NGL Energy Partners LP within the past 12 months.

 

Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability categories, is available here.

( Companies Mentioned: NGL:NYSE,
)