Archive for Commodities & Metals

Soybeans Analysis – The EU increased imports of US soybeans

By IFCMarkets

The EU increased imports of US soybeans

The European Union increased imports of US soybeans. Will SOYB prices continue rising?

Earlier in August, Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, promised to increase the volume of US soybean purchases in talks with US President Donald Trump in exchange to the easing of restrictions on imports of European cars to the US. Over the past 12 weeks, the supply of soybeans from the US to the EU increased by 133% to 1.47 million tons based on the data released at the end of the last week. The share of US soybeans in the European market increased to 52% from 25% in the same period of 2017. Thus, US authorities support their farmers. Earlier, China raised duties on US soybeans by 25% in response to the increase in duties on a number of Chinese goods by the US. Because of this, soybean prices have fallen by almost 30% since April of the current year, and on September 18, 2018 reached a 10-year low. Now they are trying to correct upward, as such a noticeable decline has increased the demand of consumers. An additional factor for the increase may be rainy weather in the US, if it hinders the crops and harvesting.

SOYB

On the daily timeframe, SOYB: D1 has updated the low since December 2008 and is trying to correct upward within the framework of the falling channel. A number of technical analysis indicators formed buy signals. The further price increase is possible in case of an increase in demand from non-Chinese buyers, as well as in case of the worsening of weather conditions in the US.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
  • The Bollinger bands have narrowed, which indicates low volatility. The lower band is titled upward.
  • The RSI indicator is above 50. It has formed a positive divergence.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case SOYB exceeds its last high at 864. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last fractal low, the 10-year low, the lower Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal at 814. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (814) without reaching the order (864), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

Position Buy
Buy stop Above 864
Stop loss Below 814

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Gold and Miners are about to explode upward

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

After many weeks of pricing pressure as the US Dollar extended a rally delivering nearly unending devaluation pricing in most commodities, Gold is setting up for a big upside rally and is likely to extend beyond $1240 in this initial run higher. We believe the immediate bottom has formed in Gold and we believe the upside move will consist of two unique legs higher. The first leg is likely to run to near $1240~1250 and end near the middle of November 2018. The second leg of this move will likely run to near $1310 and end near May 2019.

This move is the precious metals and miners will likely coincide with some moderate US Dollar weakness as well as extended global market concerns related to the trade war with China, economic factors originating from China and the EU as well as concerns stemming from the existing emerging market issues. The bottom line is that all of these global concerns are setting up a nearly perfect storm for Gold, Silver and the mining sector to see some extended rallies over the next 6+ month – possibly longer.

This Weekly Gold chart shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and we’ve highlighted key price points that are currently being predicted as targets. The CYAN colored line on this chart (near $1245) shows a number of key Fibonacci projected price levels align near this level. These coordinated price targets usually result in key price levels that price will target. So, $1240~1250 is setting up as our first upside target.

The second key level is the MAGENTA level near $1300. This lone target well above the other aligns with historical support going back to October/November 2017.

 

Ultimately, our Fibonacci price modeling system is showing projected price targets as high as $1435 and $1570 – see the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart below. These levels are valid targets given the current price rotation and the potential for these levels to be reached, eventually, should not be discounted. Our Fibonacci price modeling systems are adaptive and learns from price activity as it operates. It identifies these levels based on price activity, relational modeling and active learning of Fibonacci price structure and price theory. We believe these levels will become strong upside targets over the next 12+ months which indicates we have a potential for a massive 18% to 30% upside potential in Gold.

Please take a moment to read some of our other research posts, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, to learn how we keep our members keenly aware of these market moves before they happen and help our members find profits with strategic trading signals. Our most recent trade has already gained over 8% in less than 2 days. Our team of researchers are dedicated to helping you find and execute greater success and our advanced proprietary price modeling solutions are some of the best in the industry. Isn’t it time you decided to invest in your future by finding a solid team of professionals to help you create greater success?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

A Most Unusual and Interesting Gold Market

By The Gold Report

Source: Ron Struthers for Streetwise Reports   09/19/2018

Ron Struthers of Struthers Resource Stock Report reviews the current status of the gold market and discusses four gold miners on his buy list.

This is one of the most unusual and interesting gold (GLD) markets that I can remember in well over a decade. There are several factors at play that include:

  • Trade war with China becoming a currency war.
  • India’s tax situation.
  • Commercial traders are net long for the first time in 17 years.
  • Gold sentiment at extreme lows.
  • Kinesis, a new gold-backed cryptocurrency.
  • Year-end is approaching, which is often volatile for gold prices.
  • Gold stocks cheaper than 2015 bottom.

In January, the Trump administration began imposing tariffs on various products and countries that intensified a trade war. On July 6, when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China the trade war escalated further and started to become more of a currency war. The yuan to US$ exchange rate was already falling in 2018 and dropped further after the July 6 announcement (I have July 4 highlighted on the chart). In essence the devaluation offset the tariffs.

Simultaneously, China has been using its US$ reserves to buy cheaper US$ priced physical gold to maintain the CNY to Gold peg. This helps facilitate yuan-based oil purchases because oil producing states can immediately convert their yuan to gold through the Petro/Yuan futures contract. This is resulting in more physical demand for gold from China that will rival the 2013 highs. This graphic using World Gold Council data shows China on track to hit 1,000 tonnes this year and with demand picking up in the second half of 2018, it should come out above 1,000 tonnes.

While demand from India, the second largest consumer, looks soft, it does take into effect smuggling and a tax loophole. Gold is subject to a 10% import tax, but if doré bars (not pure or refined) are imported, the tax is avoided is how I understand it. The import of doré bars removes supply to refineries elsewhere. In 2016, the World Gold Council estimated smuggling into India amounted to 120 tonnes.

Many gold traders, including myself, watch the weekly COT Report. Typically the Commercial traders are short gold and Managed Money is long when gold has rallied. Commercials will typically trigger gold to fall through support levels and as Managed Money sells, the Commercials buy to cover their short position. Once the Commercial short position is very low, gold rallies and the process repeats. Some call it the rinse and wash cycle. It is very unusual to see Commercials with a net long position, but we have that now for the first time in 17 years. This is very bullish as the Commercials are considered the smart money.

On the gold chart, noted with the arrows, the COT is more bullish than the December 2017 low and even the bear bottom low of December 2015 (not shown here). I also note with the circle an almost perfect morning doji star reversal pattern. These are strong reversal signals and I would now like to see a break above $1225 as further confirmation of the August bottom.

There is also a new bullish factor in the market that might be as significant as when numerous gold ETFs arrived in 2004 to 2010 that helped propel gold to the 2011 highs. The latest scheme is a gold-backed monetary system cryptocurrency called Kinesis.

There have been some other gold-backed cryptos helping to draw mainstream attention to gold as a safe-haven asset, but it is important to differentiate what Kinesis is. Not only does the Kinesis currency provide a yield, but Kinesis defeats Gresham’s Law, which no other gold-backed cryptocurrency does. In fact, Kinesis isn’t just another a cryptocurrency, it is actually 100% physically backed digital gold trading via blockchain.

Kinesis was born from the team at Allocated Bullion Exchange (abx.com) who operate an institutional exchange in spot physical precious metals, with partnerships with Deutsche Borse, government postal systems and many others. The physical metal holdings will be inside the ABX secure quality assured environment. The ICO will be the largest in history and was launched September 10 ending November 11. So far there is over $57 million in sales in just the first few days from launch.

This next chart I start dragging out every year in the fourth quarter and we are close enough. Gold has seen weakness in December in every of the last 10 years. I did not update the chart as it just shows an estimate for the 2017 bottom. We know from the chart above that the December 2017 low was about $1260. It begs the question: Will gold drop to new lows in December 2018? I would be very surprised to see a lot more weakness with the current COT positions. I believe the most likely scenario is a rally to around $1280 to $1300, topping out in October or November sometime, and then a drop back down in December or this year is different.

There are a number of indicators I point out above that could tighten the physical market in gold. There are also a number of other positive fundamentals. A Fed rate hike is baked in for the September 25–26 meeting. Gold has most often been weak ahead of the rate hike and rallies after it is announced. There are still tensions in Iran and the ongoing trade disputes that could spur a flight to gold. Uncertainty leading up to November mid-term elections. September and October are historically the most volatile months for the stock market. September has been good so far, but maybe October will get ugly and gold will benefit as a safe haven. All said, what I see as the most bullish factor is how cheap and oversold gold stocks have become.

On this HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index) chart, the stocks have come to a support level around 135, the resistance level back in 2015. Very seldom do you see a reading on the RSI indicator well below 20. In fact I don’t remember seeing that in the past 10 years or more except the 2015 bottom and now the August 2018 low. What is most significant that gold stocks are only about 20% above the 2015 low when the gold price was about $150 lower and gold companies have since tightened up their cost structures. In short, this is the best opportunity I have seen to buy gold stocks since the 2002/03 and 2015 lows. It could even be a better opportunity today.

We have been stopped out of all of our gold stocks now except Semafo. I have four Gold stocks in mind to buy back and in part because their call options are also good buys.

Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE), Recent Price $3.88
Opinion: Stopped out at $4.20, Buy back

I like Kinross for the cheap price on the chart, but also high leverage to the gold price. In its recent Q2 report, the company was barely profitable, earning US$2.1 million in the quarter. An increase in the gold price will have a substantial impact on the bottom line.

Kinross expects to produce 2.5 million Au eq ounces (plus or minus 5%) at a production cost of sales per Au eq oz of $730 (plus or minus 5%) and all-in sustaining cost of $975 (plus or minus 5%) per ounce sold on both a gold equivalent and byproduct basis for 2018. Total capital expenditures are forecast to be approximately $1,075 million (plus or minus 5%).

As of June 30, 2018, Kinross had cash and cash equivalents of $918.7 million and available credit of $1,566.4 million, for total liquidity of approximately $2.5 billion, and no debt maturities until 2021.

The enterprise value of Kinross is also attractive compared to many peers. On the chart we are at a mild support level from 2016 and more important is a morning doji star reversal pattern. Together, that is good odds of a bottom.

For call options, I like January 2019 US$3 Calls at $0.32 going out a year longer and the premiums are not very high. January 2020 US$3.50 Calls can be had for about US$0.35.

On the Canadian side, I would go with January C$4 Call for about C$0.35 and longer term the January 2020 C$5 Call for about $0.35.

Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE), Recent Price $13.80
Opinion: Buy

Goldcorp has not been on my list for a couple of years, but I like Goldcorp now because of a substantial sell off in the stock, just ahead of a good growth phase for the company. The company has what it calls a 20/20/20 plan, which is 20% growth in production and reserves with a 20% reduction in costs. The growth chart is from its presentation.

Production in 2018 is expected to remain at 2.5 million ounces with good increases in 2019 and 2020.

In Goldcorp’s <href=”#2018>Q2 report, gold production was 571,000 ounces at all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $850 per ounce, compared with 635,000 ounces at AISC of $800 per ounce for the three months ended June 30, 2017. Ramp-up of sustainable capacity at Éléonore and Cerro Negro continued and is expected to be a key contributor to increasing production in the second half of the year. Full-year 2018 guidance reconfirmed for gold production of 2.5 million ounces (plus or minus 5%) at AISC of $800 per ounce (plus or minus 5%);

The project pipeline continues to advance in support of the company’s 20/20/20 growth plan. The Peñasquito pyrite leach has completed construction with commissioning further accelerated to the third quarter of 2018, now two quarters ahead of schedule, while the Musselwhite materials handling project advanced to completion of 76%, on schedule and 10% below budget.

On the stock chart, it is quite amazing to see the stock all the way back to the 2015 bottom around $10. It does not show on this longer-term chart, but about the same time as Kinross, a morning doji star reversal pattern occurred.

For options, I like the January 2019 US$10 Calls at $1.16 Further out, I would go with January 2020 US$10 Call around $2.10.

On the Canadian side, the January 2019 $14 Call at $0.95 and longer term, the January 2020 $15 Call at $1.80

B2Gold Corp. (BTG:NYSE; BTO:TSX; B2G:NSX), Recent Price $2.87

Opinion: Stopped out at $3.00, Buy back at $2.80 or less

With B2Gold, the stock has better relative performance than most gold stocks because of strong growth in 2018. However, the stock was still punished and has come down to a strong support level, so the downside risk looks small.

The strong growth is evident in its second quarter 2018 highlights:

  • Record quarterly consolidated gold production of 240,093 ounces, a significant increase of 98% (118,645 ounces) over the same period last year and 7% (16,308 ounces) above budget, due to the continued strong performances of the Fekola mine in Mali, the Masbate mine in the Philippines and the Otjikoto mine in Namibia.
  • Consolidated gold revenue of $285 million, a significant increase of 73% ($121 million) over the same period last year.
  • Consolidated cash operating costs (a non-international financial reporting standard measure) of $474 per ounce, well below budget by $86 per ounce (15%) and $157 per ounce (25%) lower than the prior-year quarter. Consolidated all-in sustaining costs (AISC) (A non-IFRS measure) of $721 per ounce, significantly below budget by $146 per ounce (17%) and $253 per ounce (26%) lower than the prior-year quarter.
  • Consolidated cash flows from operating activities of $86 million (nine cents per share), significantly increasing by $38 million (79%) from $48 million (five cents per share) in the prior-year quarter.
  • Net income of $21 million (two cents per share) and adjusted net income (a non-IFRS measure) of $46 million (five cents per share)

The strong growth is mostly attributed to the new Fekola mine that started production in late 2017 and continues to operate above plan, producing 112,644 ounces of gold in the quarter, 11% (11,225 ounces) above budget, at cash operating costs of $318 per ounce and AISC of $445 per ounce. Based on Fekola’s strong year-to-date performance, Fekola’s annual production guidance was revised higher to be between 420,000 and 430,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was between 400,000 and 410,000 ounces)

This graphic from B2Gold’s presentation gives a good picture of the company’s production profile and growth.

On the chart, one would expect an increasing price in 2018 with such strong growth and it did start out well going to $3.25. However, it has now given back all those gains and has come back to a strong support level between $2.00 and $2.20 that has been tested a few times in the past.

B2Gold is too low priced to be bother with options. You might as well just buy the stock.

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX; AGI:NYSE), Recent Price $5.77
Opinion: Stopped out at $6.20, Buy back

Since the acquisition of Island Gold in November 2017, mineral reserves and resources have continued to grow:

  • Proven and Probable mineral reserves have increased 365,000 ounces before mining depletion, or 207,000 ounces, net of mining depletion of 158,000 ounces since the start of 2017. Mineral Reserve grades have increased 17%.
  • Measured and Indicated mineral resources have increased 142%, or 130,000 ounces.
  • Inferred mineral resources have increased 18%, or 184,000 ounces.

“Island Gold continues to grow in both size and quality. In the nine months since we acquired Island Gold, Mineral Reserves and Resources have grown in all categories while Mineral Reserve grades have increased 17%. As 2018 drilling unfolds, we see excellent potential for this growth to continue,” said John A. McCluskey, president and CEO.

On July 25, Alamos was granted the GSM (business opening and operation) permit required for the development of its Kirazli project by the Canakkale governorship in Turkey. Alamos now has all the required permits to ramp up full-scale construction activities.

“As one of the lowest-cost and highest return gold projects in the world, Kirazli will be a significant driver of free cash flow growth with initial production expected in 2020,” said John A. McCluskey, president and chief executive officer.

As outlined in the 2017 feasibility study, Kirazli has a 44% after-tax internal rate of return and is expected to produce over 100,000 ounces of gold during its first full year of production at mine site with all-in sustaining costs of less than $400 per ounce. This is expected to bring consolidated production to over 600,000 ounces per year while significantly lowering the company’s cost profile.

This slide from the company’s presentation highlights the strong growth in cash flow:

Analysts on average target the shares at $11.32. “We continue to view Alamos as a preferred name in the mid-tier space, with the bulk of its production sourced from projects with well-established mine lives in low-risk jurisdictions and funded growth opportunities on the horizon.”-Raymond James analyst Tara Hassan.

The stock chart looks much the same as other gold stocks, down to new lows and in this case to the resistance level going back to 2015.

The stock is priced too low for US$ Call options, but on the Canadian side the April 2019 $5 Calls at $1.20 are worth considering. They are currently $0.77 in the money.

Ron Struthers founded Struthers’ Resource Stock Report 23 years ago. The report covers senior and junior companies with ample trading liquidity. He started his Millennium Index of dividend stocks in 2003 – $1,000 invested then was worth over $4,000 end of 2014 and the index returned 26.8% in 2016. He retired from IBM after 30 years in customer service, systems and business analyst, also developing his own charting software. He has expertise in junior start-ups and was a co-founder of Paramount Gold and Silver.

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Disclosure:
1) Ron Struthers: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: B2Gold, Kinross. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company currently has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Charts and images provided by the author.

Struthers’ Resource Stock Report Disclaimer:
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment adviser to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this publication.

c. Copyright 2018, Struther’s Resource Stock Report

( Companies Mentioned: AGI:TSX; AGI:NYSE,
BTG:NYSE; BTO:TSX; B2G:NSX,
G:TSX; GG:NYSE,
K:TSX; KGC:NYSE,
)

Not Every Investment Works Out

By The Gold Report

Source: Adrian Day for Streetwise Reports   09/19/2018

There’s a point when it comes time to exit, says money manager Adrian Day, who discusses a long-time holding that he is selling.

It’s time to pull the plug on Miranda Gold Corp. (MAD:TSX.V) and salvage what we can. The company has announced an equity placement, accompanied by a share rollback. This follows another placement in March when it issued about 27.5 million shares, representing approximately 45% dilution. Now it plans to raise another C$1.5 million, representing a further 28% dilution. This continues a pattern of ongoing, massive dilution that has helped drive the stock price down.

In 2012, Miranda had 53.6 million shares outstanding. Now, six years later, it has 132 million with another 60 million planned (see below), meaning if this placement completes as announced, the share count will have exploded over 250% in six years. And it’s not certain that the company will be able to complete the placement as announced.

Messed up financing

We won’t go into the painful details of the saga of the earlier raise. Suffice it to say that when the company announced it had closed on its C$1.5 million raise, trumpeting the participation of board members and management, it failed to announce that the board had voted itself and management bonuses in order to participate in the placement. So the company did not actually raise anywhere close to C$1.5 million, and thus needs to return to the market just six months later.

It now looks as though this new financing may not complete as announced. Miranda initially announced the placement, within an hour after announcing a deal with Newmont, priced at 4 cents. The Newmont deal pushed the price up to as high as 4.5 cents, but by the end of the day, it was quoted at 3 x 3.5, and it has slid since then.

So, less than two weeks later, the price of the offering was slashed to 2.5 cents. But that was still an aggressive price; the stock closed that day at 1.5 x 2 cents. Most recent trades have been at 1 1/2 cents. So there may have to be another “adjustment” in the terms. No surprise to anyone, the company announced a 1-for-10 share consolidation in conjunction with the offering. Typically, when there is a share consolidation, the share price slides.

Let’s sell now, before the share consolidation, and before another change in the price of the equity financing. There seems only further downside in the weeks ahead.

Adrian Day, London-born and a graduate of the London School of Economics, heads the money management firm Adrian Day Asset Management, where he manages discretionary accounts in both global and resource areas. Day is also sub-adviser to the EuroPacific Gold Fund (EPGFX). His latest book is “Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks.”

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Disclosure:
1) Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Funds controlled by Adrian Day Asset Management hold shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Miranda Gold. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

( Companies Mentioned: MAD:TSX.V,
)

WTI Crude Oil Speculators pull back on bullish bets again this week

Sept. 22, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators continued to lower their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 530,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 18th. This was a weekly fall of -13,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 543,845 net contracts.

The speculators have decreased their bullish bets for two straight weeks and for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks. The current standing is under the +600,000 net contract level for a sixth consecutive week and has now fallen to the lowest bullish level since October 31st of 2017 when the net position totaled +502,949 contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -567,938 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 7,871 contracts from the total net of -575,809 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $69.59 which was a rise of $0.34 from the previous close of $69.25, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Speculators added to their bearish bets, now bearish for 6 straight weeks

Sept. 22, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators raised their bearish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -10,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 18th. This was a weekly reduction of -3,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,590 net contracts.

The weekly speculative bearish position increased for the second time out of the past three weeks and also pushed the current standing past the -10,000 net contract mark for the second time out of the past three weeks. Overall, the gold speculator position remains in bearish territory for the sixth consecutive week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 1,691 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 1,678 contracts from the total net of 13 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1202.90 which was a boost of $0.70 from the previous close of $1202.20, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators pulled back on their bearish bets for 2nd week

Sept. 22, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -25,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 18th. This was a weekly increase of 1,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,403 net contracts.

The silver speculative position has now had declining bearish bets for two weeks following four straight weeks of increasing bearishness. Overall, the current standing is above the -25,000 contract level for a third consecutive week.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 8,834 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -3,540 contracts from the total net of 12,374 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1418.50 which was a gain of $3.20 from the previous close of $1415.30, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators cut back on their bearish net positions

Sept. 22, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators reduced their bearish bets to a negligible small short position in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 18th. This was a weekly gain of 8,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,894 net contracts.

The copper short position declined for the first time in three weeks this week. The overall standing has now been in bearish territory for three straight weeks and for four out of the past five weeks. This recent stretch is the first time since October of 2016 that copper speculator bets have fallen into a bearish position.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 1,881 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -6,965 contracts from the total net of 8,846 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $273.05 which was an uptick of $10.9 from the previous close of $262.15, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Trade War vs. Commodities

By The Gold Report

Source: Lobo Tiggre for Streetwise Reports   09/19/2018

Lobo Tiggre of the Independent Speculator discusses the trade war and its impact on commodities, and what that all means for resource investors.

There is a widespread notion among investors, analysts and pundits that the escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and its trading partners is bad for the global economy. This is no stretch. The leap from there to it being bad for commodities is understandable, but less certain. Still, people who should know, like those running the world’s largest mining company, are saying it’s so.

Is it any wonder, then, that we’ve seen the rally in commodities that started in 2016 start to peter out?

S&P GSCI Commodities Index

The chart sure looks like a wave cresting—but how do we know it’s the trade conflict that’s causing it?

In truth, we don’t. But the recent downturn includes commodities facing structural supply deficits, like copper and nickel. That clearly isn’t being driven by fundamentals. This leaves “investor sentiment” as the likely cause—and that’s often driven by perception more than reality. Have a look at this chart, which zooms in on the GSCI Commodities Index since the start of the current trade conflict.

Commodities and New Tariff News

There’s no smoking gun on this chart. In fact, commodities rose after the U.S. fired the first salvos in the conflict. On the other hand, the blows kept coming, and their cumulative impact does seem to be weighing on commodities prices.

This much is largely understood. What seems to get left out of this discussion, however, is that the U.S., the EU, China, India and many emerging economies are still reporting economic growth. Problems in Turkey and Argentina do not cancel out the massive growth in so much of the rest of the world.

There’s a problem with believing that the global economy is growing and at the same time believing that there should be lower demand for the raw materials that make that growth possible. One might argue that investors are reacting now to lower demand in the future. Fine. But then why aren’t investors bailing on equities and other assets that would be hurt by the same global economic downturn?

Perhaps the answer is simply that Mr. Market is bipolar, as legendary investor Benjamin Graham once wrote. If so, there’s no use moaning about commodities being down when they shouldn’t be, or equities being up when they shouldn’t be. They are. We play with the cards we’re dealt.

But there’s another, much more fundamental and solid reality here that’s relevant: the world’s population isn’t getting any smaller. Even if global DGP growth stalls, as long as the number of people in the world keeps increasing, that’s bullish for metals, industrial minerals, agricultural commodities and everything else all those people will need. There will always be cycles in commodities markets, of course, but this underlying trend will keep pushing general demand for decades to come.

So What?

What does all this mean, in practical terms, for resource investors?

  1. It means we should be cautious about speculating in commodities, just because they “should” go up.
  2. Until the general upward trend for all commodities is reestablished, we invest only in the ones that are already going up.
  3. For metals investors, that’s uranium and vanadium this year. Vanadium has doubled this year, but it’s a tiny, more speculative market. Uranium is up about 37% this year, but that’s a stellar performance compared to other metals. This makes uranium as the best driver of value in resource stocks at present.

That said, I’m not just arguing for uranium just because it’s up. Its price remains well below the cost of production at a time when demand is increasing. China is building scores of nuclear power plants, and even Japan has plans to re-start 30 of its reactors. The world may someday abandon nuclear fission for power, but that day is decades away. This is why I have had no doubt for years that uranium must rise. What’s different now is that it’s actually happening.

Of course, a rising tide does not lift all ships equally—especially not the ones with holes in their hulls. Picking the right uranium stocks is essential at this time.

Caveat emptor.

If you’d like to be updated on the trends covered in this article, please subscribe to our free, no-spam Speculator’s Digest at www.IndependentSpeculator.com.

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of IndependentSpeculator.com services going forward. Another key feature is that Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.

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Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Lobo Tiggre and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Charts courtesy of the author.

Explorer Confirms Presence of High-Grade Gold at Peru Site

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   09/20/2018

Surface gold mineralization expands to 800-by-500-meter area.

Palamina Corp.’s (PA:TSX.V; PLMNF:OTC.MKTS) recent field campaign at its Coasa Gold Project in southeastern Peru continues to confirm the presence of high-grade gold at surface in the Veta Zone where continuous channel sampling returned 1.8 meters of 19.6 g/t gold and 0.9 meters of 103 g/t gold.

“The recently discovered zone of surface gold mineralization has now expanded to cover an 80- by-500-meter area and further selective rock-chip sampling in the Veta Zone returned up to 620 g/t (19.9 oz/t) gold,” stated the company. “A total of 176 geochemical samples were collected at the Veta Anomaly during the August field campaign; 155 as continuous channel samples varying from 0.9 to 4.5 metres true width across mineralized structures hosted by intermittent in-situ outcrops located on scree-covered slopes throughout the Veta discovery zone.”

Overall, 64% of channel and rock-chip sampling results turned up anomalous gold grades (>0.1 g/t gold), 15% resulted in gold contents >1 g/t gold and 3% >10 g/t gold (or 8.5% >2 g/t gold). Four visible native gold-hosting structures have now been discovered.

“The footprint of the Veta gold discovery zone at Coasa continues to expand. Channel sampling has confirmed significant gold mineralization within the slate and siltstone host rocks and returned up to 1.8 metres of 19.6 gpt gold. The heli-borne geophysical survey underway is over 50% complete and will serve to better understand the prospective structures at Coasa,” stated Andrew Thomson, president and CEO of Palamina. “Selective samples are not representative of the mineralization hosted on the property. The 800 x 500 meter Veta anomaly is located within a larger 1.8 x 0.5 km prospective area of structural deformation (folded and possibly tectonically displaced shear zones), which accommodates lesser folded fault-shear structures incorporating both sub-parallel aligned as well as transversally aligned swarms of gray-white quartz veins, veinlets and micro-veinlets. These, in turn, are hosted by sub-vertically aligned fine-grained sedimentary sequences of slates and siltstones belonging to the Ananea Formation.”

Encouraging analytical results obtained from recent sampling and mapping campaigns on the Coasa Gold Project’s Veta Anomaly are confirming the exploration potential of this highly prospective zone of orogenic gold mineralization, stated the company.

Up to three locations of differently oriented mineralized quartz veins, veinlets and micro-veinlets have been recognized.

“The most dominant suite is developed along a WNW trend. The above information, coupled with the confirmed coincidence of several established mineralizing controls pertinent to orogenic gold deposits occurring within the POGB, provides a sound grounding for future drill testing of the Veta Anomaly,” noted the news release, which also stated that social and environmental permitting as well as drill permitting are underway.

The company plans to follow up with systematic channel sampling of the broad mineralized zones identified to date, and soil sampling will be considered over areas without rock exposure,

CEO Andrew Thomson, in a Sept. 13 interview with Gerardo Del Real of Resource Stock Digest, discussed the meaning of the chip sample to the company in an expanded gold zone:

“Previously, the campaign that we were running at Coasa was a chip sampling program where again we were seeing quite high grades of 39 gram per tonne material from our chips. So really the secret here is to go back and follow up with channel sampling. What the channel sampling does—if it’s horizontal and perpendicular—you’re trying to now get volume or an understanding of whether or not the wall rocks, which in this case are slate, are also mineralized.

“The significance of the high grade is really there as a chip sample just to show that we’re finding different zones. So the last time that we spoke, we were quite encouraged that we found one visible gold zone. We’re now up to four zones. One of those new zones where we took a chip sample is running 19.9 ounces, which is bonanza grade for these style systems. So really that is a bit of a flash in the pan, but where it starts to become more important is when you do your channel sampling across, which in this case is rock saw, and those samples get sent in, when you start seeing minable widths, i.e. a meter and a half and above that, at good grade, which in this case is 1.8 meters and 19.6 grams. That’s when it starts to get exciting because that’s when you can start building or working towards something where you can get tonnage in a resource.”

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Disclosure:
1) John McPhaul compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an employee. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Palamina Corp. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Palamina Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

( Companies Mentioned: PA:TSX.V; PLMNF:OTC.MKTS,
)