Archive for Bonds

10-Year Note Speculators added to their bearish bets for 5th week

August 18th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators once again increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -414,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 13th. This was a weekly change of -23,460 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -390,886 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -23,062 contracts (to a weekly total of 635,384 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) increased by just 398 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,049,730 contracts).

The large speculators kept on raising their bearish bets for a fifth straight week this week and by a total of -125,510 contracts over that time-frame. Speculators have been consistently bearish on the 10-year note all year and continue to bet against the price trend of the 10-year note. The price has sharply risen higher since November while the 10-year yield has fallen to approximately 1.55 percent.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 331,680 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 10,267 contracts from the total net of 321,413 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $130.42 which was an increase of $0.10 from the previous close of $130.31, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for 4th week

August 10th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets once again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -390,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 6th. This was a weekly change of -7,044 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -383,842 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -34,857 contracts (to a weekly total of 658,446 contracts) which overcame a decline in the gross bearish position (shorts) by -27,813 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,049,332 contracts).

Speculators increased their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and for the fifth time out of the last six weeks (also 15 times out of last 20 weeks). Specs have consistently been bearish on the 10-year note this year and have been consistently on the wrong side of this market as the 10-year note has surged due to safe haven demand and concerns over the economy.

The speculator’s total net position was a total of -188,068 contracts on January 8th (this year’s first release) compared to the current net position of -390,886 contracts on August 6th. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year note was as high as 2.75 percent on January 8th (yield up, bond prices down) but has sharply deteriorated since then and currently the yield is sitting at 1.75 percent (yield down, bond prices up) and even reached as low as 1.59 percent earlier this week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 321,413 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 9,495 contracts from the total net of 311,918 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $130.31 which was an uptick of $2.53 from the previous close of $127.78, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators edged their bearish bets higher this week

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators continued to raise their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -383,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly change of -3,673 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -380,169 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 14,814 contracts (to a weekly total of 693,303 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 18,487 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,077,145 contracts).

Large speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks.

The speculative position has remained overall bearish dating back to December of 2017, reaching an all-time record high bearish level on September 25th of 2018. Since then, speculative bearish positions have retreated but have continued to remain overall bearish. Usually reliable trend-followers, the speculators have been caught on the wrong side of this market this year as 10-year bonds have been strongly bid.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 311,918 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the total net of 311,782 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.78 which was a shortfall of $-0.01 from the previous close of $127.79, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators added to their bearish bets for 2nd straight week

July 27th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions for a second straight week in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -380,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 23rd. This was a weekly change of -32,947 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,222 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -2,482 contracts (to a weekly total of 678,489 contracts) in addition to the gross bearish position (shorts) gaining by 30,465 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,058,658 contracts).

Large speculators continued their bearish ways in the 10-Year Note futures this week with higher bearish bets for a second straight week and for the third time in four weeks.

The speculative position has been bearish dating all the way back to December of 2017 and reached an all-time record high bearish level on September 25th of 2018 with a total of -756,316 net contracts. Since then, speculator bearish positions have declined but have continued to remain overall bearish despite bonds being heavily bid throughout 2019. Speculators are usually reliable trend-followers but have been caught on the wrong side of this market so far this year.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 311,782 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 22,458 contracts from the total net of 289,324 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.79 which was an uptick of $0.51 from the previous close of $127.28, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets higher this week

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -347,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly change of -58,386 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -288,836 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -1,435 contracts (to a weekly total of 680,971 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by 56,951 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,028,193 contracts).

Large speculators added to their existing bearish positions by the most in six weeks and pushed the current bearish standing above the -300,000 net contract level for the first time in a month.

Speculators are usually reliable trend-followers and momentum traders but have been betting against higher 10-year bond prices in recent months despite prices go higher.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 289,324 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 74,147 contracts from the total net of 215,177 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.28 which was a fall of $-0.39 from the previous close of $127.67, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators bearish bets were virtually unchanged this week

July 13th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculator’s bearish net positions barely moved this week in the 10-Year Note futures markets, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -288,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly rise of just 48 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -288,884 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 44,268 contracts (to a weekly total of 682,406 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) gained by a similar 44,220 contracts for the week (to a total of 971,242 contracts).

The large speculators ever so slightly edged their bearish bets lower this week after a small increase last week. Speculator bets recently had some very sharp reductions of their bearish positions on June 11th by +101,714 contracts and on June 25th by +121,885 contracts that has helped bring the overall bearish standing to under the -300,000 net contract level.

The current bearish position continues to remain under the -300,000 net contract level for a third week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 215,177 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -44,266 contracts from the total net of 259,443 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.67 which was a fall of $-0.84 from the previous close of $128.51, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets slightly higher

July 8th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to July 4th holiday).

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -288,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 2nd. This was a weekly change of -7,785 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -281,099 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -33,998 contracts (to a weekly total of 638,138 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -26,213 contracts for the week (to a total of 927,022 contracts).

The large speculators slightly added to their existing bearish positions after large pull backs in two out of the previous three weeks (+101,714 on June 11th and +121,885 on June 25th). The overall speculator sentiment remains bearish although the bearish position is now under the -300,000 net contract level for a second week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 259,443 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 39,531 contracts from the total net of 219,912 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.51 which was a rise of $0.39 from the previous close of $128.12, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators strongly pared their bearish bets this week

June 29th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators sharply pulled back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -281,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 25th. This was a paring of the bearish position by 121,885 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -402,984 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 51,131 contracts (to a weekly total of 672,136 contracts) that combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) that declined by -70,754 contracts for the week (to a total of 953,235 contracts).

Large Specs have been betting the wrong way

The 10-year note speculators sharply reduced their bearish position this week by over one hundred thousand contracts and by the largest one-week amount since November 13th of 2018. This works out to approximately a thirty percent cut in their bearish positions on the week.

The 10-year speculators had been adding to their bearish bets in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks despite the strength of the US Treasury bonds. These usually reliable trend-followers have been caught on the wrong side of this market as 10-year bonds have rallied approximately 7.5% this year and yields have plummeted with the 10-year yield currently at 2.00%.

This week’s sharp pullback for speculators bring the current standing under the -300,000 net contract level for the first time in eight weeks and the lowest bearish standing since April 16th.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 219,912 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -120,487 contracts from the total net of 340,399 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.12 which was a boost of $0.62 from the previous close of $127.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators added to their bearish bets this week

June 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -402,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 18th. This was a weekly change of -36,996 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -365,988 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) declining by -22,496 contracts (to a weekly total of 621,005 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) increased by 14,500 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,023,989 contracts).

The large speculators raised their bearish bets this week following a sharp contraction by 101,714 contracts last week. Despite the strength of the 10-Year bond notes recently, speculator bets have continued to be more bearish than bullish (bearish bets have risen in five out of the last seven weeks with a net change of -115,063 contracts over that period).

Currently, the overall bearish position is back above the -400,000 net contract level which marks just the third time bets have been this bearish since November 2018.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 340,399 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 29,275 contracts from the total net of 311,124 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.50 which was a rise of $0.70 from the previous close of $126.80, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators strongly cut back on their bearish bets

June 15th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -365,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 11th. This was a weekly change of 101,714 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -467,702 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 30,228 contracts (to a weekly total of 643,501 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -71,486 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,009,489 contracts).

Speculators sharply reduced their bearish bets this week by the largest one-week amount since January 8th of this year. The speculative positions had seen higher bearish sentiment in three out of the previous four weeks before this week’s turnaround.

The current net standing (-365,988 contracts) is now back below -400,000 contracts this week after rising above that threshold last week and reaching the most bearish level since November 2018.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 311,124 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -107,837 contracts from the total net of 418,961 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $126.79 which was a shortfall of $-0.15 from the previous close of $126.95, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email