Archive for Bonds

10-Year Note Speculators raised their bearish bets to 11-week high

December 7th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators added to their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -221,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 3rd. This was a weekly change of -76,150 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,745 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -5,978 contracts (to a weekly total of 702,318 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by 70,172 contracts for the week (to a total of 924,213 contracts).

10-Year speculators added to their bearish bets for the second time in three weeks and by a total of -73,101 contracts over that time-frame. This rise in bearishness pushed the overall bearish standing to the highest level in eleven weeks, dating back to September 17th. Despite the recent uptick in bearish bets, the current level (-221,895 contracts) remains below the 2019 average level of -257,672 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 241,919 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 116,614 contracts from the total net of 125,305 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $130.03 which was an advance of $0.28 from the previous close of $129.75, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators trimmed their bearish bets last week

December 2nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to Thanksgiving holiday).

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -145,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 26th. This was a weekly change of 37,779 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -183,524 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 30,587 contracts (to a weekly total of 708,296 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -7,192 contracts for the week (to a total of 854,041 contracts).

Ten-year speculators cut back on their bearish bets for the second time in the past three weeks and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. The overall net position has now been under the -200,000 contract level for ten straight weeks, dating back to September 24th.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 125,305 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -57,333 contracts from the total net of 182,638 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.75 which was an advance of $0.28 from the previous close of $129.46, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators increased their bearish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

November 23rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators pushed their bearish net positions higher in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -183,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 19th. This was a weekly change of -34,730 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,794 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 25,397 contracts (to a weekly total of 677,709 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by a greater amount of 60,127 contracts for the week (to a total of 861,233 contracts).

Ten-year note speculators increased their bearish bets for the third time in the past four weeks. This follows a streak of seven weeks from September 10th to October 22nd where bearish bets fell by a total of 293,514 contracts in that period. The current standing of -185,524 contracts is the fourth straight week with bearish bets above the -100,000 net contract level.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 182,638 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -5,412 contracts from the total net of 188,050 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.46 which was a rise of $0.96 from the previous close of $128.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Large Speculators cut back on their 10-Year Treasury Note bearish bets

November 16th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets for the first time in three weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -148,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 12th. This was a weekly change of 82,662 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,456 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -958 contracts (to a weekly total of 652,312 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -83,620 contracts for the week (to a total of 801,106 contracts).

The 10-year speculators reduced their bearish positions after two weeks of strong gains in bearish bets that had pushed the overall standing to the most bearish in eight weeks. Following this latest decline, the bearish net position (currently -148,794 contracts) is back under the -200,000 contract level for the fourth time in the past five weeks and well under the 2019 average position level of -262,602 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 188,050 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -52,071 contracts from the total net of 240,121 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.50 which was a drop of $-0.42 from the previous close of $128.92, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators strongly added to their bearish bets for a 2nd week

November 9th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators sharply increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -231,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 5th. This was a weekly change of -115,390 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,066 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -62,945 contracts (to a weekly total of 653,270 contracts) in addition to the gross bearish position (shorts) rising by 52,445 contracts for the week (to a total of 884,726 contracts).

10-Year speculators raised their bearish bets for a second straight week and by largest one-week amount (-115,390 contracts) in over a year, dating back to September of 2018. This recent bearishness pushes the overall position to the most bearish level in eight weeks with contracts back over the -200,000 net contract standing.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 240,121 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 114,893 contracts from the total net of 125,228 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.92 which was a fall of $-0.35 from the previous close of $129.28, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators raised their bearish bets for 1st time in 8 weeks

November 2nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -116,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 29th. This was a weekly change of -31,713 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,353 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 51,897 contracts (to a weekly total of 716,215 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by a greater amount of 83,610 contracts for the week (to a total of 832,281 contracts).

10-year note speculators raised their bearish bets following seven straight weeks of declining bearish positions. The previous declines had brought the overall position to the least bearish level in ninety-four weeks, dating back to January 2nd of 2018. This week’s reboot of bearish bets pushed the net position back above the -100,000 contract level for the first time since October 8th.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 125,228 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 62,216 contracts from the total net of 63,012 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.28 which was a shortfall of $-0.54 from the previous close of $129.82, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators dropped their bearish bets for 7th straight week

October 26th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators once again cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -84,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly change of 15,339 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,692 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by just 2,979 contracts (to a weekly total of 664,318 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) lowered by -12,360 contracts for the week (to a total of 748,671 contracts).

10-year treasury speculators once again decreased their bearish bets for a seventh straight week and now by a total of 293,514 contracts over that period. The decrease in bearish sentiment has brought the position to its least bearish standing in ninety-four weeks dating back to January 2nd of 2018.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 63,012 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 23,023 contracts from the total net of 39,989 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.82 which was an uptick of $0.03 from the previous close of $129.79, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators once again trimmed their bearish bets for a 6th week

October 19th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators continued to decrease their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -99,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 15th. This was a weekly change of 22,868 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,560 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 56,551 contracts (to a weekly total of 661,339 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) also rose by 33,683 contracts for the week (to a total of 761,031 contracts).

10-Year speculators cut back on their bearish positions for the sixth consecutive week this week. Speculators have now reduced their bearish bets by a total of 278,175 contracts over that six-week period. The speculative standing is now at the least bearish level since January 16th of 2018 which is a span of ninety-one straight weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 39,989 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -28,372 contracts from the total net of 68,361 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.79 which was a decline of $-2.03 from the previous close of $131.82, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Treasuries Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart.

Our belief is that further economic concerns related to trade, foreign economic metrics and data and the forward perspective of many emerging and foreign markets will continue to weaken much more dramatically than the US or other major global economies.  Thus, we believe capital will continue to pour into the US and more mature major global economic markets (Canada, Japan, Great Britain, Swiss) as a move to safety just as capital is moving into the precious metals markets.

When fear enters the global markets, capital seeks out the safest and most secure environments for investment.  If the rest of the world’s economies are becoming weaker and more fragile as trade and economic factors continue to hit the news wires, the more mature major economic countries are naturally going to benefit from their more robust and secure economic power and strength.  The flight to safety will result in capital moving away from risk and into the safety of these more mature economies simply because they provide a level of security and risk aversion that can’t be found elsewhere. Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Daily TLT Chart

This Daily TLT chart highlights the resistance level that we believe is current constricting the current price advance from breaking higher.  We believe this resistance channel is causing the TLT price to pause below $147 and will continue to keep prices within this channel until some economic news event or positive US economic news item pushes the price higher.  The US and global markets are waiting for some type of news event before attempting to make another move.  We believe the future news will result in an upside technical breakout and a new rally towards the $152 to $155 level in TLT.

Weekly TLT Chart

This Weekly TLT chart highlights the extended bullish price rally that started back in late October 2018.  This upside price move has already rallied more than 40%, but we don’t believe it is over yet.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting $154 to $155 is the next upside price target.  To be a bit more conservative, we’ve targeted the $152 level for skilled traders to work with.  Once price achieves the $152 target level, look to cover any open long trades you may have.

If you are an active trader of gold, gold stocks, bonds, or the SP500 and would like to hear a trading style that reduces the amount of trades you take while making the same or better returns listen to this conversion with Adam Johnson who is an x-Bloomberg anchor, and now active trader.

Understanding how pricing and global market dynamics work throughout the stock market and the global market can be confusing at times.  How can one attempt to understand what will move in a certain direction, why it will move that way and how one can profit from these opportunities and be difficult for many people to grasp.  We do our best to try to help you by highlighting trade setups, explaining our thinking and research, sharing some of the charts with our proprietary trading tools and to help you identify strong opportunities for success.

Bonds are likely to continue to trade in a sideways price range before breaking higher near the end of 2019.  This aligns with our expectations that foreign markets may come under intense economic pressure while the US economy continues to provide safety for investors for the long term.  The support level above 157 is critical going forward.

Daily Price Cycle Predicted Price Trend

While cycle analysis helps us paint a clear picture of what to expect looking forward up to 45 days I still rely on my market trend charts to know when I should be buying or selling positions.

The Technical Traders Concluding Thoughts:

Right now, we believe the markets are waiting for some news events to make their next move.  This is the time to take very measured positions when trading.  This is NOT the time to go “all-in” on some trade.  Be prepared for a spike in volatility and a new price trend to establish within the next 3 to 10 trading days.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Today to Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar with a subscription – Offer Ends This Week!

Chris Vermeulen

TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

10-Year Note Speculators pared bearish bets for 5th week, lowest level in 89 weeks

October 12th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators once again cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -122,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 8th. This was a weekly change of 41,050 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -163,610 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -36,217 contracts (to a weekly total of 604,788 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by a larger amount of -77,267 contracts for the week (to a total of 727,348 contracts).

Large 10-year speculators continued to decrease their bearish positions this week for the fifth consecutive week. Overall, the spec position have now sliced off a total of 255,307 contracts from the bearish standing in these past five weeks.

The current net standing is now at the least bearish level since January 23rd of 2018, which is a span of eighty-nine weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 68,361 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -23,360 contracts from the total net of 91,721 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $131.82 which was an advance of $1.04 from the previous close of $130.78, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email