Archive for Bonds

10-Year Note Speculators raised their bullish bets for 3rd week to 134-week high

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Speculators raised bets for 3rd week

Large bond speculators added to their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 43,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 7th. This was a weekly gain of 12,172 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,015 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -2,539 contracts (to a weekly total of 779,252 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by a larger amount of -14,711 contracts for the week (to a total of 736,065 contracts).

The 10-Year Note speculators continued to raise their net positions this week for a third straight week and for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. The bullish sentiment has now pushed the bullish position to the highest level since December 12th of 2017, a span of 134 weeks. The turnaround in speculator positions has been pretty remarkable as the net position was as high as -151,487 contracts on May 12th and as high as -251,113 contracts on March 17th before speculators started betting on a rise in the 10-Year Notes.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -68,452 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -11,801 contracts from the total net of -56,651 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $139.20 which was a boost of $0.03 from the previous close of $139.17, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Speculators push their bets into a bullish position

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 6,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 23rd. This was a weekly gain of 17,401 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,885 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 17,883 contracts (to a weekly total of 686,764 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by just 482 contracts for the week (to a total of 680,248 contracts).

10-Year Note speculators flipped their bets back into a bullish position this week. Two weeks ago on June 9th, the speculative position rose into a net bullish position for the first time since December of 2017 while last week saw a relapse back into a small bearish level. In the big picture, these small bullish or bearish levels are essentially a neutral stance among the speculators for the time being.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -33,408 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -16,682 contracts from the total net of -16,726 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.75 which was a drop of $-0.04from the previous close of $138.79, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators flipped bets back into bearish position this week

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -10,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 16th. This was a weekly change of -13,139 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,254 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -32,665 contracts (to a weekly total of 668,881 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by a lesser amount by -19,526 contracts for the week (to a total of 679,766 contracts).

10-Year Note speculators reduced their positions this week and dropped the overall net position back into a bearish level. Last week (+2,254 contracts) was the first time since December 12th of 2017 that the overall net position was in positive territory, a span of 130 weeks. Overall, this week’s data shows that the speculators and the commercials are currently in neutral positioning for the 10-Year with an uncertain outlook.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -16,726 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -9,425 contracts from the total net of -7,301 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.79 which was a gain of $0.64 from the previous close of $138.15, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Municipal bond yields show investors willing to pay premium for debt that addresses climate change

By Carolin Schellhorn, St. Joseph’s University

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

The big idea

Municipal bond investors are increasingly confident that as climate change accelerates, cities will be forced to prioritize projects that seek to mitigate the consequences, according to a newly published analysis of bond yields I conducted.

The findings suggest investors believe such climate-related investments are safer – and more likely to be repaid – than other types of long-term city projects that may have less of a chance of happening because of limited funds. This can be seen in the higher prices – and lower rates of return – investors are willing to pay for longer-term municipal bonds certified by the Climate Bonds Initiative compared with similar debt that doesn’t carry that certification.

Why it matters

Cities and other governments have for years been fiercely debating what if anything to do about climate change. My research shows that there’s a reward, in terms of relatively low financing costs, to pursue long-term climate action now. It suggests investors have already acknowledged the consequences of human-induced climate change are real and have created a financial incentive for those cities that are trying to adapt. And this could help fuel a faster transition to a low-carbon world.

What still isn’t known

It’s unclear if this climate project premium holds for other types of debt, such as that issued by companies or federal governments. The market for Climate Bonds Initiative-certified bonds is still quite young, with about US$120 billion issued worldwide since 2014 – just a drop in the bucket for a bond market worth more than $100 trillion.

What other research is being done

Beyond the market that I looked at, there is a much larger market for self-labeled “green” and climate-aligned bonds that are not certified. Researchers are trying to determine if investors are willing to pay a premium – dubbed a “greenium” – when bonds are issued by corporations or governments to fund any environmental or climate-related projects. Currently, the results have been inconclusive, as different studies have reported conflicting results. If a premium on all green and climate-aligned bonds exists, this would supply further evidence of an investor subsidy provided to borrowers who claim to use their proceeds for environmental or climate-related purposes.

About the Author:

Carolin Schellhorn, Assistant Professor of Finance, St. Joseph’s University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

TLT Trade of the Year and What Is Next!

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

We just closed out our TLT position, which opened up 20.07% from our entry price, amazing. Who said bonds are dull and boring? haha

Only three times since 2008 have I seen bonds rally more than 20% from a new swing trade entry. Each time the move was short-lived, and the price collapsed after it within a few weeks. My goal is not to try and time tops and bottoms for the best entry and exit level. That is a gambler/losing strategy. Sure it pays big if you luck out and nail the timing, but they are few and far between, and the losses from trying will eat up any previous gain.

What I do is follow the price using my proven technical trading experience and tools, which I have acquired since 1997 and then apply position management to limit risk. I then use my trading systems for statistical analysis, so I know the odds for trade are favorable to win and also to pinpoint profit taking levels just like today’s TLT position closure.

Sure, TLT could pop and rally another 5-10%, but its highly unlikely, and it’s fear/volatility driven, so any spike higher from here is likely to drop straight back down shortly after. We got the low-risk easy money portion of the trade, and we are back in cash while everyone today is freaking out and losing money and piling into bonds because of fear, which is likely a top for the price of bonds for a while.

The bottom line, we avoided the stock market crash. We will not be trading inverse ETFs on the stock market until we enter a bear market. Until then, we avoid market corrections by moving to cash, then into bonds just like we have done with TLT. The SP500 is down 14% from the high a few weeks ago, and our TLT bond position is up 20% as of today.

We also made some good money on GDXJ for those who follow our trading strategy and position management. The last couple of weeks has been a tremendous learning experience, in my opinion. The recent price action amplifies how critical position management is (targets, stops) are for our long term trading success. No one knows where the price will ultimately move to or reverse, but through the use of technical analysis and our trading systems, we can consistently pull money out of the market each year.

Yes, we will have small losing trades from time to time like SSO, and UNG but when we do take a loss, they don’t cause much damage to our overall account because of our position sizing and stop levels. I was once told by my trading mentor in 2001 that you should be proud of yourself for taking a loss.

Taking a loss (closing a losing trade) means you are following rules, managing risk, and that you can accept your timing for the trade was wrong. That has stuck with me and pops into my head every time I have to bite the bullet and close out a losing trade.

The stock market is down 9.5% for the year as of today, our account is positive and making money, not many can say that right now. The Power of Technical Analysis!

Remember, successful trading is not about having a bunch of positions you have open, and thinking you always need to own something. It’s about limiting/avoided risk when the odds are unfavorable, and getting back into the market when they do become favorable. Cash is a position and sometimes its the best and only position to be in like right now.

Thanks, everyone, for the kind and uplifting emails, it really is amazing to navigate the market like this with all of you.

Happy Members Making Money!

Hi Chris, Many thanks for your sterling work. The beauty of your work is that you cover all asset classes to identify setups. One key lesson we learnt is to trust the bond market more than the equities market when the trend between the two asset classes diverges. 
Regards, Yusuf

Hi Chris,
I just wanted to send a quick note to tell you how impressed I am with your service and your trading system.  I’ve followed/subscribed to several folks over the past several years and have never seen anything like what you provide. Your timely and accurate technical analysis of the major markets is incredible and perfectly aligns with my preferred swing trading approach. My favorite part of the day is watching (and learning from) your morning videos. And to know that my account is steadily increasing in the face of utter market panic is invaluable.


Thanks so much for all you do!

Ryan M.

If you want to become part of an exquisite trading newsletter where you can learn to reach the charts, spot trades, profit targets, stops, and be force-fed winning trades like this TLT trade, and our GDXJ trade then join my Wealth Building Trading Newsletter Today!

Click Here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/#pricing

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

 

 

10-Year Note Speculators pulled back on their bearish bets for 3rd time in 5 weeks

December 14th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators pared their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -178,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 10th. This was a weekly change of 42,974 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -221,895 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -52,998 contracts (to a weekly total of 649,320 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -95,972 contracts for the week (to a total of 828,241 contracts).

Large 10-year speculators cut back on their bearish bets for the third time in the past five weeks. The decline in bearish positions brings the overall bearish level back under the -200,000 net contract standing for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Overall, the 10-year position has now been in bearish territory for one-hundred and four straight weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 217,135 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -24,784 contracts from the total net of 241,919 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.92 which was a drop of $-1.10 from the previous close of $130.03, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators raised their bearish bets to 11-week high

December 7th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators added to their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -221,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 3rd. This was a weekly change of -76,150 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,745 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -5,978 contracts (to a weekly total of 702,318 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by 70,172 contracts for the week (to a total of 924,213 contracts).

10-Year speculators added to their bearish bets for the second time in three weeks and by a total of -73,101 contracts over that time-frame. This rise in bearishness pushed the overall bearish standing to the highest level in eleven weeks, dating back to September 17th. Despite the recent uptick in bearish bets, the current level (-221,895 contracts) remains below the 2019 average level of -257,672 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 241,919 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 116,614 contracts from the total net of 125,305 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $130.03 which was an advance of $0.28 from the previous close of $129.75, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators trimmed their bearish bets last week

December 2nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to Thanksgiving holiday).

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -145,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 26th. This was a weekly change of 37,779 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -183,524 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 30,587 contracts (to a weekly total of 708,296 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -7,192 contracts for the week (to a total of 854,041 contracts).

Ten-year speculators cut back on their bearish bets for the second time in the past three weeks and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. The overall net position has now been under the -200,000 contract level for ten straight weeks, dating back to September 24th.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 125,305 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -57,333 contracts from the total net of 182,638 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.75 which was an advance of $0.28 from the previous close of $129.46, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators increased their bearish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

November 23rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators pushed their bearish net positions higher in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -183,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 19th. This was a weekly change of -34,730 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,794 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 25,397 contracts (to a weekly total of 677,709 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by a greater amount of 60,127 contracts for the week (to a total of 861,233 contracts).

Ten-year note speculators increased their bearish bets for the third time in the past four weeks. This follows a streak of seven weeks from September 10th to October 22nd where bearish bets fell by a total of 293,514 contracts in that period. The current standing of -185,524 contracts is the fourth straight week with bearish bets above the -100,000 net contract level.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 182,638 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -5,412 contracts from the total net of 188,050 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $129.46 which was a rise of $0.96 from the previous close of $128.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Large Speculators cut back on their 10-Year Treasury Note bearish bets

November 16th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets for the first time in three weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -148,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 12th. This was a weekly change of 82,662 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,456 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -958 contracts (to a weekly total of 652,312 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -83,620 contracts for the week (to a total of 801,106 contracts).

The 10-year speculators reduced their bearish positions after two weeks of strong gains in bearish bets that had pushed the overall standing to the most bearish in eight weeks. Following this latest decline, the bearish net position (currently -148,794 contracts) is back under the -200,000 contract level for the fourth time in the past five weeks and well under the 2019 average position level of -262,602 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 188,050 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -52,071 contracts from the total net of 240,121 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $128.50 which was a drop of $-0.42 from the previous close of $128.92, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email