Silver Speculators raise bullish bets for 4th time in 5 weeks

December 5, 2020

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Silver Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020


Silver Large Trader Net Positions:


Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.




The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 47,892 contracts in the data reported through December 01 2020. This was a weekly gain of 2,212 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,680 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 2,252 contracts (to a weekly total of 77,023 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) edged up by 40 contracts for the week (to a total of 29,131 contracts).

Silver speculators added to their bullish bets for fourth time in the past five weeks. The boost in positions has pushed the current bullish standing to its highest level since March 3rd. Speculative positions have now been in bullish territory for seventy-eight straight weeks, dating back to June of 2019.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 71.9 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.1
– Net Position: 47,892
– Gross Longs: 77,023
– Gross Shorts: 29,131
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:


Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -61,885 contracts. This was a weekly change of -1,725 contracts from the total net of -60,160 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 33.7 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 70.5
– Net Position: -61,885
– Gross Longs: 45,567
– Gross Shorts: 107,452
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1


Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 13,993 contracts. This was a weekly change of -487 contracts from the total net of 14,480 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 21.6 percent.


Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 


TRADER TYPE DATA: SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.7
– Net Position: 13,993
– Gross Longs: 24,131
– Gross Shorts: 10,138
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.7

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com