By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime
It has been a momentous week defined by anticipation, tension and drama around the US presidential election.
The outcome of this historic election remains on a knife-edge, with Donald Trump and Democrat challenger Joe Biden going toe to toe in key swing states. Investors across the globe are likely to adopt a guarded approach amid the cliffhanger vote count with full unofficial results from key swing states – Pennsylvania and Georgia – expected later today. Although Biden may clinch the presidency with just one more state, the race for the White House remains too close to call. Even if this becomes reality, concerns are elevated over Trump contesting the results of certain states, ultimately opening the door to more uncertainty. Given how officials have already warned that it may take days or even weeks for the final results amid the huge number of postal ballots, markets could be in for a rocky ride for the rest of 2020.
Asian shares were mixed this morning as investors awaited more clarity from the presidential election, while gains in Europe may be capped if market players turn defensive ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon.
US jobs data in focus
Away from US politics, all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls report released later today.
Free Reports:
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter
The headline figure is expected to have increased by 600,000 jobs in October after rising 661,000 in September. This would make it the smallest gain since the jobs recovery started in May and give a clear indication that rising coronavirus infections are negatively impacting the economic recovery. The unemployment rate is expected to have dipped from 7.9% to 7.7% with average hourly earnings forecast to rise to 0.2% from the 0.1% seen in the previous month.
A disappointing jobs report is likely to hit sentiment towards the US economy and the threat of a contested election that reduces the possibility of another coronavirus rescue package in 2020 may rub salt into the wound.
Looking at the technical picture, the Dollar Index remains under pressure on the daily charts. Prices are trading below the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades to the downside. A daily close below 92.70 may open a path towards 92.00 in the short to medium term. But should prices push higher and break above 92.70, the Index may venture back towards 93.30.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Article by ForexTime
ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com
- AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead Mar 28, 2024
- GBP Consolidates Amid Concerns Over Economic Growth and Wage Trends Mar 28, 2024
- The Australian and German indexes set all-time highs. The Reserve Bank of South Africa kept the rate at 8.25% Mar 28, 2024
- Target Thursdays: EURGBP, GBPUSD & Crude hit targets! Mar 28, 2024
- EURSEK: Hits fresh 2024 high at 200-day SMA Mar 27, 2024
- Australia has seen a decline in inflationary pressures. Japan may conduct currency intervention shortly Mar 27, 2024
- Australian Dollar Slides to Three-Week Low Mar 27, 2024
- Trade restrictions between the US and China are intensifying. Japan’s currency diplomats talk about possible intervention to support the yen Mar 26, 2024
- Japanese Yen Awaits Intervention Amid Weakness Mar 26, 2024
- NETH25 index chasing new record highs! Mar 26, 2024