10-Year Treasury Note Speculators dropped their bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

November 1, 2020

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 16,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 27th. This was a weekly fall of -6,784 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,996 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) declining by -17,476 contracts (to a weekly total of 544,854 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by a lesser amount of -10,692 contracts for the week (to a total of 528,642 contracts).

The 10-Year speculative positions slid on Tuesday and fell for the third time in the past four weeks. The net position has now fallen by -112,364 contracts over that time-frame and is currently sitting at a small bullish position of just over +16,000 contracts. The speculator sentiment has continued to hover around a small bullish now for the past twenty-one weeks after breaking a streak of 129 weeks of continuous bearish positions that dated back to December 19th of 2017.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 13,934 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 66,940 contracts from the total net of -53,006 contracts reported the previous week.


10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.84 which was a rise of $0.14 from the previous close of $138.70, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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