10-Year Treasury Note Speculators edged their bullish bets higher, up for 5th time in 6 weeks

October 17, 2020

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 75,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 13th. This was a weekly gain of 5,744 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,513 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -43,266 contracts (to a weekly total of 585,180 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by a larger amount of -49,010 contracts for the week (to a total of 509,923 contracts).

The 10-Year speculators slightly added to their net bullish bets this week and raised their wagers for the fifth time in the past six weeks. The rise in bullish positions follows a sharp decline last week when spec sentiment fell by -59,063 contracts. The overall standing has now been in bullish territory for six straight weeks (after a dip on Sept. 1st) and has been bullish in sixteen out of the past seventeen weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -99,519 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -7,820 contracts from the total net of -91,699 contracts reported the previous week.


10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $139.20 which was an advance of $0.16 from the previous close of $139.04, according to unofficial market data.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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