10-Year Note Speculators pulled back on their bullish bets this week

October 24, 2020

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.




The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 22,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 20th. This was a weekly drop of -52,261 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,257 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -22,850 contracts (to a weekly total of 562,330 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) increased by 29,411 contracts for the week (to a total of 539,334 contracts).

The 10-Year Treasury speculators sharply cut back on their bullish bets for the second time in the past three weeks. The overall position has shed a total of -105,580 contracts over these past three weeks and has brought the current bullish standing to the lowest level of the last five weeks. Despite the recent setbacks, the speculator position has remained in a small bullish position for seventeen out of the past eighteen weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -53,006 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 46,513 contracts from the total net of -99,519 contracts reported the previous week.

 

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.703125 which was a decline of $-0.5 from the previous close of $139.203125, according to unofficial market data.

 

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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