10-Year Note Speculators push their bets into a bullish position

June 27, 2020

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators increased their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 6,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 23rd. This was a weekly gain of 17,401 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,885 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 17,883 contracts (to a weekly total of 686,764 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by just 482 contracts for the week (to a total of 680,248 contracts).

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10-Year Note speculators flipped their bets back into a bullish position this week. Two weeks ago on June 9th, the speculative position rose into a net bullish position for the first time since December of 2017 while last week saw a relapse back into a small bearish level. In the big picture, these small bullish or bearish levels are essentially a neutral stance among the speculators for the time being.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -33,408 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -16,682 contracts from the total net of -16,726 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.75 which was a drop of $-0.04from the previous close of $138.79, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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