10-Year Note Speculators flipped bets back into bearish position this week

June 20, 2020

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -10,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 16th. This was a weekly change of -13,139 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,254 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -32,665 contracts (to a weekly total of 668,881 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by a lesser amount by -19,526 contracts for the week (to a total of 679,766 contracts).

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10-Year Note speculators reduced their positions this week and dropped the overall net position back into a bearish level. Last week (+2,254 contracts) was the first time since December 12th of 2017 that the overall net position was in positive territory, a span of 130 weeks. Overall, this week’s data shows that the speculators and the commercials are currently in neutral positioning for the 10-Year with an uncertain outlook.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -16,726 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -9,425 contracts from the total net of -7,301 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.79 which was a gain of $0.64 from the previous close of $138.15, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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